{"rounds":[{"id":1793647800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77008.5,"price_at_lock":77050.2,"sigma":0.0011742837128131047,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T19:30:04.823Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T19:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.030964360922812732,"mom3":0.11850733925501644,"rev20":-0.5245035851879989,"book":-1.699301416187102},"fable":{"p":0.4750576542632453,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 48%. Last candle +0.00%; three-candle momentum +0.01%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.5σ; order book 29/71 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (+0.126 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77006.24,"band":90.43,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T19:30:04.823Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76926.6,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T19:35:04.829Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.22567977487409713,"delta":10,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 52% likely; candle closed down (-0.11%). Brier 0.2257. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0404. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0235,"ret1":-0.0006,"mom3":-0.0029,"rev20":0.0124,"book":0.0404}},"prev_hash":"fbd4e10a5ed753ad70acb517d556c10634664bf10ed1da82787a941332f41a0f","hash":"df61250942718f7605a57fae191b234d0fe3997628527a2e76880aa551bf9bab"},{"id":1793648100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76926.6,"price_at_lock":76926.7,"sigma":0.0011976047617657855,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T19:35:04.829Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T19:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.8880383546774849,"mom3":-0.43891361336020535,"rev20":-1.38165915307785,"book":1.0028369281586649},"fable":{"p":0.4287468075861005,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 43%. Last candle -0.11%; three-candle momentum -0.05%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.4σ; order book 63/37 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: last candle (+0.105 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76920.04,"band":92.13,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T19:35:04.829Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76771,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T19:40:04.854Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.1838238250152727,"delta":26,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 57% likely; candle closed down (-0.20%). Brier 0.1838. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0296. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0212,"ret1":0.0192,"mom3":0.0093,"rev20":0.0296,"book":-0.0215}},"prev_hash":"df61250942718f7605a57fae191b234d0fe3997628527a2e76880aa551bf9bab","hash":"cc7c817b796616e0d79f9aae90169efaaab3fc960cef5881e85c8c840791fbf5"},{"id":1793648400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76771,"price_at_lock":76736.1,"sigma":0.0011420098152420577,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T19:40:04.854Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T19:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.771182115080385,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-2,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.4114216319387065,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 41%. Last candle -0.20%; three-candle momentum -0.30%; price below its 20-candle mean by 3.0σ; order book 8/92 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.208 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76763.23,"band":87.67,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T19:40:04.854Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76798,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T19:45:04.899Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3464244953496955,"delta":-39,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 41% likely; candle closed up (+0.04%). Brier 0.3464. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0590. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0297,"ret1":-0.052,"mom3":-0.059,"rev20":-0.0589,"book":-0.0588}},"prev_hash":"cc7c817b796616e0d79f9aae90169efaaab3fc960cef5881e85c8c840791fbf5","hash":"966977e84924b2edd41eb8d932265268b53bc6b8176cc776198c807bffc3d732"},{"id":1793648700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76798,"price_at_lock":76804.5,"sigma":0.0010197558926131338,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T19:45:04.899Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T19:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.34488185276386396,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-2,"book":0.26514181106777623},"fable":{"p":0.38690416022062385,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 39%. Last candle +0.04%; three-candle momentum -0.27%; price below its 20-candle mean by 2.7σ; order book 53/47 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.090 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76789.14,"band":78.32,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T19:45:04.899Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76716,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T19:50:04.831Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.14969482919602617,"delta":40,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 61% likely; candle closed down (-0.11%). Brier 0.1497. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0387. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0191,"ret1":-0.0065,"mom3":0.0386,"rev20":0.0387,"book":-0.005}},"prev_hash":"966977e84924b2edd41eb8d932265268b53bc6b8176cc776198c807bffc3d732","hash":"d4473eaf410aab93088f2fedaa83a7567842b770973d22aa4da81111ef7095b1"},{"id":1793649000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76716,"price_at_lock":76732.4,"sigma":0.0010009667285079662,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T19:50:04.831Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T19:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.066704924901462,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-2,"book":-1.0611770497787465},"fable":{"p":0.43596079110905195,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 44%. Last candle -0.11%; three-candle momentum -0.27%; price below its 20-candle mean by 3.4σ; order book 37/63 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: last candle (+0.168 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76711.08,"band":76.79,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T19:50:04.831Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76934.8,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T19:55:04.835Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3181402291663265,"delta":-27,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 44% likely; candle closed up (+0.29%). Brier 0.3181. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0565. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0284,"ret1":-0.0299,"mom3":-0.0565,"rev20":-0.0565,"book":-0.0298}},"prev_hash":"d4473eaf410aab93088f2fedaa83a7567842b770973d22aa4da81111ef7095b1","hash":"50c8a8b216b2b28cbddb544070fef6a0e8a3c30e1223381809e0615d6b084e52"},{"id":1793649300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76934.8,"price_at_lock":76916.8,"sigma":0.0011843773049459167,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T19:55:04.835Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T20:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":2,"mom3":1.8035105427546143,"rev20":-0.3062437086694592,"book":1.1353844042083394},"fable":{"p":0.3290664516650989,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 33%. Last candle +0.29%; three-candle momentum +0.21%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.3σ; order book 64/36 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: last candle (-0.375 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76919.22,"band":91.12,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T19:55:04.835Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77088.7,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T20:00:04.848Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.450151826281261,"delta":-80,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 33% likely; candle closed up (+0.20%). Brier 0.4502. Largest weight change: last-candle +0.0673. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0338,"ret1":0.0673,"mom3":0.0605,"rev20":-0.0103,"book":0.0382}},"prev_hash":"50c8a8b216b2b28cbddb544070fef6a0e8a3c30e1223381809e0615d6b084e52","hash":"b6f313f7e6a097e5abde315356119d187a0145690ac90e1f12dd2d042ff55acc"},{"id":1793649600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77088.7,"price_at_lock":77059,"sigma":0.0012630661233855925,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T20:00:04.848Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T20:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.5837612162525994,"mom3":2,"rev20":1.3332725391746703,"book":1.0535324759560711},"fable":{"p":0.4244242613317778,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 42%. Last candle +0.20%; three-candle momentum +0.38%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.3σ; order book 63/37 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: last candle (-0.190 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77081.34,"band":97.37,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T20:00:04.848Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77023.3,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T20:05:04.821Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.18013595360702522,"delta":28,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 58% likely; candle closed down (-0.08%). Brier 0.1801. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0425. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.021,"ret1":-0.0335,"mom3":-0.0425,"rev20":-0.0283,"book":-0.0222}},"prev_hash":"b6f313f7e6a097e5abde315356119d187a0145690ac90e1f12dd2d042ff55acc","hash":"560f9f124678306290399dfbe2839c5fa9c5c114a0cea3f5c6e8e2033b6cd58e"},{"id":1793649900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77023.3,"price_at_lock":77004.6,"sigma":0.0012681846292201323,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T20:05:04.821Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T20:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.6689667637940782,"mom3":2,"rev20":0.7021004772489686,"book":1.6977258890819884},"fable":{"p":0.43805688516608315,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 44%. Last candle -0.08%; three-candle momentum +0.40%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.7σ; order book 71/29 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.225 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77017.25,"band":97.68,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T20:05:04.821Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76968,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T20:10:04.826Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.19189383464141097,"delta":23,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 56% likely; candle closed down (-0.07%). Brier 0.1919. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0439. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0217,"ret1":0.0148,"mom3":-0.0439,"rev20":-0.0154,"book":-0.0371}},"prev_hash":"560f9f124678306290399dfbe2839c5fa9c5c114a0cea3f5c6e8e2033b6cd58e","hash":"a9bd896124cebafb78a1b258e78580be7bfa927d3259e953f638a1e3ae409797"},{"id":1793650200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76968,"price_at_lock":76991.3,"sigma":0.0012019028434444308,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T20:10:04.826Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T20:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.5973565732751646,"mom3":0.36114167702962385,"rev20":0.13774053184559693,"book":0.20612016201167843},"fable":{"p":0.45535773971958415,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 46%. Last candle -0.07%; three-candle momentum +0.04%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.1σ; order book 53/47 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: last candle (+0.083 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76963.87,"band":92.51,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T20:10:04.826Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76910.1,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T20:15:04.842Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.20735067112252856,"delta":17,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 54% likely; candle closed down (-0.08%). Brier 0.2074. Largest weight change: bias -0.0225. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0225,"ret1":0.0137,"mom3":-0.0082,"rev20":-0.0031,"book":-0.0045}},"prev_hash":"a9bd896124cebafb78a1b258e78580be7bfa927d3259e953f638a1e3ae409797","hash":"f17a24aef75e793bfa20696c79101d6744864bdc92e4208185e424d9ab29bf2a"},{"id":1793650500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76910.1,"price_at_lock":76917.6,"sigma":0.0012132677078089097,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T20:15:04.842Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T20:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.6200286012074627,"mom3":-1.9110362833464203,"rev20":-0.4591143123230139,"book":-0.4994683256206512},"fable":{"p":0.48810775860818073,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 49%. Last candle -0.08%; three-candle momentum -0.23%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.5σ; order book 44/56 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: order book (+0.087 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76908.99,"band":93.31,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T20:15:04.842Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77133.8,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T20:20:04.828Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2620336667971405,"delta":-5,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 49% likely; candle closed up (+0.29%). Brier 0.2620. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0489. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0258,"ret1":-0.0157,"mom3":-0.0489,"rev20":-0.0117,"book":-0.0126}},"prev_hash":"f17a24aef75e793bfa20696c79101d6744864bdc92e4208185e424d9ab29bf2a","hash":"8b55a2e9ea0bfe4ed102368dcd7e767151a6f4ad2ec7ce386556966f04a09188"},{"id":1793650800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77133.8,"price_at_lock":77136.7,"sigma":0.001330799038741751,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T20:20:04.828Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T20:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":2,"mom3":1.0808284298694095,"rev20":1.7379677399625841,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.3,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 30%. Last candle +0.29%; three-candle momentum +0.14%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.7σ; order book 79/21 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.374 in log-odds). Raw model said 26%, capped by policy.","expected_close":77113.27,"band":102.65,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T20:20:04.828Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77209.6,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T20:25:04.822Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 30% likely; candle closed up (+0.10%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0702. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0352,"ret1":0.0701,"mom3":0.0379,"rev20":0.0609,"book":0.0702}},"prev_hash":"8b55a2e9ea0bfe4ed102368dcd7e767151a6f4ad2ec7ce386556966f04a09188","hash":"c4b6a60134b8ccd56e051bb3e89cb041f5c85539da7d1b50422814e530c80d21"},{"id":1793651100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77209.6,"price_at_lock":77195.6,"sigma":0.0012653110969245462,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T20:25:04.822Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T20:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.7766532453371845,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":0.4311054833536166},"fable":{"p":0.42293507622632603,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 42%. Last candle +0.10%; three-candle momentum +0.31%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.5σ; order book 55/45 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: last candle (-0.055 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77202.07,"band":97.69,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T20:25:04.822Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77010.9,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T20:30:04.844Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.17887407870256822,"delta":28,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 58% likely; candle closed down (-0.26%). Brier 0.1789. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0423. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.021,"ret1":-0.0164,"mom3":-0.0423,"rev20":-0.0423,"book":-0.009}},"prev_hash":"c4b6a60134b8ccd56e051bb3e89cb041f5c85539da7d1b50422814e530c80d21","hash":"80faf07573038b129d80cec3e7db3ca434c5d07dd81f9ce18b7582692aabc43a"},{"id":1793651400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77010.9,"price_at_lock":77003.3,"sigma":0.0013809498550218517,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T20:30:04.844Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T20:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.8635826384605478,"mom3":0.9542594684663381,"rev20":0.38624914909948505,"book":1.3264426985730793},"fable":{"p":0.4304802200878406,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 43%. Last candle -0.26%; three-candle momentum +0.13%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.4σ; order book 67/33 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.14%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.167 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77003.51,"band":106.35,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T20:30:04.844Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76944.9,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T20:35:04.818Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.18531321988687569,"delta":26,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 57% likely; candle closed down (-0.09%). Brier 0.1853. Largest weight change: last-candle +0.0402. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0213,"ret1":0.0402,"mom3":-0.0205,"rev20":-0.0083,"book":-0.0284}},"prev_hash":"80faf07573038b129d80cec3e7db3ca434c5d07dd81f9ce18b7582692aabc43a","hash":"2df93e3f35bc2ac12166d572ef3d1a16ff90a5b60c988279543806ea3164619a"},{"id":1793651700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76944.9,"price_at_lock":76927.2,"sigma":0.0013934776626282467,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T20:35:04.818Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T20:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.6150235210035948,"mom3":-1.756632207873611,"rev20":-0.2004178010355097,"book":1.3352460208873103},"fable":{"p":0.43724144586042984,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 44%. Last candle -0.09%; three-candle momentum -0.24%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.2σ; order book 67/33 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.14%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.206 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76938.17,"band":107.22,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T20:35:04.818Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76865.8,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T20:40:04.783Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.1911800819781192,"delta":24,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 56% likely; candle closed down (-0.10%). Brier 0.1912. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0385. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0216,"ret1":0.0135,"mom3":0.0385,"rev20":0.0044,"book":-0.029}},"prev_hash":"2df93e3f35bc2ac12166d572ef3d1a16ff90a5b60c988279543806ea3164619a","hash":"b5b2b8e3db82245c90786eda5fda655e05e720ad43b68a9ef13ef9dcdebdc390"},{"id":1793652000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76865.8,"price_at_lock":76861.3,"sigma":0.0014095441853660038,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T20:40:04.783Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T20:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.7293197082451974,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-0.8571878338963055,"book":-0.6467011318564635},"fable":{"p":0.5032830721485715,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 50%. Last candle -0.10%; three-candle momentum -0.45%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.9σ; order book 42/58 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.14%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: order book (+0.118 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76866.16,"band":108.35,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T20:40:04.783Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76891.3,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T20:45:04.825Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.24672770641416125,"delta":1,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 50% likely; candle closed up (+0.03%). Brier 0.2467. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0496. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0251,"ret1":-0.0181,"mom3":-0.0496,"rev20":-0.0212,"book":-0.0159}},"prev_hash":"b5b2b8e3db82245c90786eda5fda655e05e720ad43b68a9ef13ef9dcdebdc390","hash":"5006e58a6c9934bb5c3a3594040bdd8ba2aa36060bc2fa959caeb572e4b10301"},{"id":1793652300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76891.3,"price_at_lock":76907.4,"sigma":0.0014013228966400218,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T20:45:04.825Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T20:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.23673845594449147,"mom3":-1.1084403726175078,"rev20":-0.5976454650924602,"book":0.4792435034915064},"fable":{"p":0.45209565043667715,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 45%. Last candle +0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.16%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.6σ; order book 56/44 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.14%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (+0.102 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76886.14,"band":107.75,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T20:45:04.825Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76995.9,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T20:50:04.858Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.30019917627040793,"delta":-20,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 45% likely; candle closed up (+0.14%). Brier 0.3002. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0303. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0276,"ret1":0.0065,"mom3":-0.0303,"rev20":-0.0163,"book":0.0133}},"prev_hash":"5006e58a6c9934bb5c3a3594040bdd8ba2aa36060bc2fa959caeb572e4b10301","hash":"601cf7d67920847d645d865fd8656a5b92efb1a45cfd97fd57368ca43d118194"},{"id":1793652600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76995.9,"price_at_lock":76993.1,"sigma":0.0014338055893007113,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T20:50:04.858Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T20:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.9487771394386286,"mom3":0.4631734143623409,"rev20":0.33993886622530595,"book":-0.036375969557870945},"fable":{"p":0.4222724167896116,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 42%. Last candle +0.14%; three-candle momentum +0.07%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.3σ; order book 50/50 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.14%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.057 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76987.32,"band":110.4,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T20:50:04.858Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76925.4,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T20:55:04.813Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.17831399398133943,"delta":29,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 58% likely; candle closed down (-0.09%). Brier 0.1783. Largest weight change: bias -0.0209. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0209,"ret1":-0.02,"mom3":-0.0097,"rev20":-0.0071,"book":0.001}},"prev_hash":"601cf7d67920847d645d865fd8656a5b92efb1a45cfd97fd57368ca43d118194","hash":"4713f30a49e381c05fcc0d0cdca5a5b000a68bf5c5f2ec69951b30664cb63549"},{"id":1793652900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76925.4,"price_at_lock":76900.9,"sigma":0.0014392983310012634,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T20:55:04.813Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T21:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.636166352976257,"mom3":0.539482189033052,"rev20":-0.26516584298597,"book":-0.7999122282381936},"fable":{"p":0.48112289093302035,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 48%. Last candle -0.09%; three-candle momentum +0.08%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.3σ; order book 40/60 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.14%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: order book (+0.148 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76923.31,"band":110.72,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T20:55:04.813Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76786.9,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T21:00:05.158Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.231479236179747,"delta":7,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 52% likely; candle closed down (-0.18%). Brier 0.2315. Largest weight change: bias -0.0238. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0238,"ret1":0.0154,"mom3":-0.0128,"rev20":0.0065,"book":0.0194}},"prev_hash":"4713f30a49e381c05fcc0d0cdca5a5b000a68bf5c5f2ec69951b30664cb63549","hash":"3c55519546ce52da8fb3f4168c1ced9e2e13a8becdbd05ce401f441378893b12"},{"id":1793653200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76786.9,"price_at_lock":76775.7,"sigma":0.0014880696219790224,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T21:00:05.158Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T21:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.2099202886405405,"mom3":-0.9110573934632957,"rev20":-1.387415728908476,"book":0.9499615284118088},"fable":{"p":0.4756341484604006,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 48%. Last candle -0.18%; three-candle momentum -0.14%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.4σ; order book 62/38 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.15%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.157 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76784.12,"band":114.26,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T21:00:05.158Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76821.8,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T21:05:04.825Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2749595462608493,"delta":-10,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 48% likely; candle closed up (+0.05%). Brier 0.2750. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0363. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0265,"ret1":-0.0317,"mom3":-0.0237,"rev20":-0.0363,"book":0.0251}},"prev_hash":"3c55519546ce52da8fb3f4168c1ced9e2e13a8becdbd05ce401f441378893b12","hash":"e4d4c2ed83020742d0dbaa8bac991db877fbf08fb145587fbe30a5d88ec5d9c7"},{"id":1793653500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76821.8,"price_at_lock":76853.4,"sigma":0.001487129089551144,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T21:05:04.825Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T21:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.30562552552012245,"mom3":-1.5207652133226988,"rev20":-1.0030625123587036,"book":-0.07583561915873363},"fable":{"p":0.5355830530093009,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 54%. Last candle +0.05%; three-candle momentum -0.23%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.0σ; order book 49/51 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.15%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: momentum (+0.256 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76825.87,"band":114.24,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T21:05:04.825Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76870,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T21:10:04.938Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.21568310065216184,"delta":14,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 54% likely; candle closed up (+0.06%). Brier 0.2157. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0351. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0234,"ret1":0.0072,"mom3":-0.0351,"rev20":-0.0232,"book":-0.0016}},"prev_hash":"e4d4c2ed83020742d0dbaa8bac991db877fbf08fb145587fbe30a5d88ec5d9c7","hash":"00b3d4dc8009e07f2f7381bc4f251541bc8642053a189cbe5cb63ec9d8b3ad37"},{"id":1793653800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76870,"price_at_lock":76860.1,"sigma":0.001495759675608446,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T21:10:04.938Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T21:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.41946983823280093,"mom3":-0.4803679090872999,"rev20":-0.5183010800351383,"book":-0.17443750101208816},"fable":{"p":0.49313937155467835,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 49%. Last candle +0.06%; three-candle momentum -0.07%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.5σ; order book 48/52 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.15%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: momentum (+0.098 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76869.21,"band":114.98,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T21:10:04.938Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76843.2,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T21:15:04.829Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2431864397773431,"delta":3,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 51% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.2432. Largest weight change: bias -0.0245. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0245,"ret1":-0.0103,"mom3":0.012,"rev20":0.0129,"book":0.0044}},"prev_hash":"00b3d4dc8009e07f2f7381bc4f251541bc8642053a189cbe5cb63ec9d8b3ad37","hash":"b86704b060ae96bac412daa061f2a6311b5f34cb476dd5c070fb1fbdb9779fe1"},{"id":1793654100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76843.2,"price_at_lock":76863.9,"sigma":0.0014805057845627644,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T21:15:04.829Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T21:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.23548747031121728,"mom3":0.49529702911745344,"rev20":-0.7223725430393194,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.3835825877466634,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 38%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum +0.07%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.7σ; order book 82/18 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.15%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.275 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76829.96,"band":113.77,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T21:15:04.829Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76900,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T21:20:04.824Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.37997042612909987,"delta":-52,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 38% likely; candle closed up (+0.07%). Brier 0.3800. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0618. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.031,"ret1":-0.0072,"mom3":0.0155,"rev20":-0.0221,"book":0.0618}},"prev_hash":"b86704b060ae96bac412daa061f2a6311b5f34cb476dd5c070fb1fbdb9779fe1","hash":"90494207fca45c716ea85f6e29eb289ed94b8e6e7cbcf98dacf6d4a1824526f3"},{"id":1793654400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76900,"price_at_lock":76900.1,"sigma":0.0014178347100862556,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T21:20:04.824Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T21:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.5213354887754414,"mom3":0.717963138805149,"rev20":-0.2926379913893731,"book":0.34933359132770353},"fable":{"p":0.4155893583374892,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 42%. Last candle +0.07%; three-candle momentum +0.10%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.3σ; order book 54/46 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.14%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.126 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76890.8,"band":109.03,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T21:20:04.824Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76863.1,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T21:25:04.820Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.17271451476336602,"delta":31,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 58% likely; candle closed down (-0.05%). Brier 0.1727. Largest weight change: bias -0.0206. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0206,"ret1":-0.0107,"mom3":-0.0147,"rev20":0.0062,"book":-0.0072}},"prev_hash":"90494207fca45c716ea85f6e29eb289ed94b8e6e7cbcf98dacf6d4a1824526f3","hash":"eb821cdbe4098f7e0733b0a89f3b894fea80e913c3cd2e876b7983c57df01200"},{"id":1793654700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76863.1,"price_at_lock":76863.2,"sigma":0.0014215902696066507,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T21:25:04.820Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T21:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.3375402627922118,"mom3":-0.0628289075253722,"rev20":-0.6589997698064395,"book":0.20015350343510743},"fable":{"p":0.47959214209574047,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 48%. Last candle -0.05%; three-candle momentum -0.01%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.7σ; order book 53/47 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.14%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.092 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76860.87,"band":109.27,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T21:25:04.820Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76791.1,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T21:30:04.844Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2300086227599809,"delta":8,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 52% likely; candle closed down (-0.09%). Brier 0.2300. Largest weight change: bias -0.0238. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0238,"ret1":0.0082,"mom3":0.0017,"rev20":0.0159,"book":-0.0047}},"prev_hash":"eb821cdbe4098f7e0733b0a89f3b894fea80e913c3cd2e876b7983c57df01200","hash":"46fd2c6075c252f5c3e33bcd0e81e98e0ba83fe637469e39750134b19071dbd1"},{"id":1793655000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76791.1,"price_at_lock":76796.5,"sigma":0.0014167490578328894,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T21:30:04.844Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T21:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.6611829833162602,"mom3":-0.478141676907068,"rev20":-1.3561992572246226,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.47953151288708723,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 48%. Last candle -0.09%; three-candle momentum -0.07%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.4σ; order book 82/18 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.14%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.175 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76788.87,"band":108.79,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T21:30:04.844Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76843.2,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T21:35:05.160Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2708874460776043,"delta":-8,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 48% likely; candle closed up (+0.07%). Brier 0.2709. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0521. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0263,"ret1":-0.0171,"mom3":-0.0123,"rev20":-0.0352,"book":0.0521}},"prev_hash":"46fd2c6075c252f5c3e33bcd0e81e98e0ba83fe637469e39750134b19071dbd1","hash":"39d9dcf2b2c91cfa680e3f21248eeee3afb70410a5034f53389859cd40e328d8"},{"id":1793655300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76843.2,"price_at_lock":76838.9,"sigma":0.0012737805598428654,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T21:35:05.160Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T21:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.5326380870801679,"mom3":-0.5794642376947373,"rev20":-0.9301259639015805,"book":-0.9663300091836241},"fable":{"p":0.5095465995662632,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 51%. Last candle +0.07%; three-candle momentum -0.07%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.9σ; order book 38/62 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.148 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76844.13,"band":97.88,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T21:35:05.160Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76955.6,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T21:40:04.889Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.24054453799701533,"delta":4,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 51% likely; candle closed up (+0.15%). Brier 0.2405. Largest weight change: bias +0.0247. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0247,"ret1":0.0132,"mom3":-0.014,"rev20":-0.0227,"book":-0.0237}},"prev_hash":"39d9dcf2b2c91cfa680e3f21248eeee3afb70410a5034f53389859cd40e328d8","hash":"d9dffeea0d968c44ece673ba9945cf072f2f2ab2dd6726c7a3ae1000e04bb4d5"},{"id":1793655600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76955.6,"price_at_lock":76955.7,"sigma":0.001235124862897817,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T21:40:04.889Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T21:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.184268029275102,"mom3":0.9751666374466647,"rev20":0.2936895156165521,"book":-1.3500155795444948},"fable":{"p":0.3831266080258742,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 38%. Last candle +0.15%; three-candle momentum +0.12%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.3σ; order book 33/67 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.210 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76944.49,"band":95.05,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T21:40:04.889Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76965.1,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T21:45:04.823Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3805327817256635,"delta":-52,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 38% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.3805. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0416. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.031,"ret1":0.0366,"mom3":0.0303,"rev20":0.0092,"book":-0.0416}},"prev_hash":"d9dffeea0d968c44ece673ba9945cf072f2f2ab2dd6726c7a3ae1000e04bb4d5","hash":"a763ecd8013bf5598ba8595a7dae20cc79cd4d4a289b1669aead8821891975be"},{"id":1793655900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76965.1,"price_at_lock":76965.2,"sigma":0.0012232210990833717,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T21:45:04.823Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T21:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.10092027218956283,"mom3":1.8513666384693763,"rev20":0.4284453261322155,"book":1.1570523657515377},"fable":{"p":0.33525976677655206,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 34%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum +0.23%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.4σ; order book 64/36 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.342 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76949.59,"band":94.15,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T21:45:04.823Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76803,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T21:50:04.814Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.11239911121906808,"delta":55,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 66% likely; candle closed down (-0.21%). Brier 0.1124. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0308. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0166,"ret1":-0.0016,"mom3":-0.0308,"rev20":-0.007,"book":-0.0193}},"prev_hash":"a763ecd8013bf5598ba8595a7dae20cc79cd4d4a289b1669aead8821891975be","hash":"bfb1db8004e47b7d2b085c97be7a15a5e53cfb6de53a4bdddc09a002aabab1d4"},{"id":1793656200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76803,"price_at_lock":76803,"sigma":0.0012970463027943539,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T21:50:04.814Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T21:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.6238043360823693,"mom3":-0.4008975746637875,"rev20":-1.138032258439133,"book":0.2820610125386255},"fable":{"p":0.5491351107728473,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 55%. Last candle -0.21%; three-candle momentum -0.05%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.1σ; order book 54/46 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.204 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76807.89,"band":99.62,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T21:50:04.814Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76871,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T21:55:04.816Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.20327914833781272,"delta":19,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 55% likely; candle closed up (+0.09%). Brier 0.2033. Largest weight change: last-candle -0.0365. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0227,"ret1":-0.0365,"mom3":-0.0088,"rev20":-0.0255,"book":0.0065}},"prev_hash":"bfb1db8004e47b7d2b085c97be7a15a5e53cfb6de53a4bdddc09a002aabab1d4","hash":"eb7ece925a5fe98b63eb280691d437da767452ef6e0a96bc7b915eaa9556922a"},{"id":1793656500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76871,"price_at_lock":76866.7,"sigma":0.0013053575410963793,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T21:55:04.816Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T22:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.6782678718701636,"mom3":-0.8406275586065175,"rev20":-0.43405930489057387,"book":1.8240700791280615},"fable":{"p":0.4660268565808219,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 47%. Last candle +0.09%; three-candle momentum -0.11%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.4σ; order book 73/27 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.207 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76867.59,"band":100.34,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T21:55:04.816Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76838.6,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T22:00:04.843Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.21718103105460193,"delta":13,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 53% likely; candle closed down (-0.04%). Brier 0.2172. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0424. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0232,"ret1":-0.0157,"mom3":0.0198,"rev20":0.0103,"book":-0.0424}},"prev_hash":"eb7ece925a5fe98b63eb280691d437da767452ef6e0a96bc7b915eaa9556922a","hash":"82f69d9cd2749f56f943f7fb53cd88b65e035c70c44fceab5ae093f44e0710b6"},{"id":1793656800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76838.6,"price_at_lock":76838.9,"sigma":0.001119794251252652,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T22:00:04.843Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T22:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.3763953468303564,"mom3":-1.4665664454784886,"rev20":-0.7109347919880791,"book":1.4915184756674857},"fable":{"p":0.5217731203786017,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 52%. Last candle -0.04%; three-candle momentum -0.16%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.7σ; order book 69/31 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: momentum (+0.300 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76840.47,"band":86.04,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T22:00:04.843Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76829.9,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T22:05:04.824Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.27224718914962276,"delta":-9,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 48% likely; candle closed down (-0.01%). Brier 0.2722. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0388. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0259,"ret1":0.0099,"mom3":0.0385,"rev20":0.0187,"book":-0.0388}},"prev_hash":"82f69d9cd2749f56f943f7fb53cd88b65e035c70c44fceab5ae093f44e0710b6","hash":"2da0dd62ba7181ecdeb909c7cf98692965bb0cf328c03746da893a9a62b73c7c"},{"id":1793657100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76829.9,"price_at_lock":76836.7,"sigma":0.0010873596302149833,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T22:05:04.824Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T22:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.10412777872875345,"mom3":0.3224989995327422,"rev20":-0.6092913517177152,"book":0.06501513263809909},"fable":{"p":0.46587506108651017,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 47%. Last candle -0.01%; three-candle momentum +0.04%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.6σ; order book 51/49 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.107 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76827.05,"band":83.54,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T22:05:04.824Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76874.9,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T22:10:04.824Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2852894503693393,"delta":-14,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 47% likely; candle closed up (+0.06%). Brier 0.2853. Largest weight change: bias +0.0269. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0269,"ret1":-0.0027,"mom3":0.0088,"rev20":-0.0161,"book":0.0019}},"prev_hash":"2da0dd62ba7181ecdeb909c7cf98692965bb0cf328c03746da893a9a62b73c7c","hash":"c547cb759cb7e7093333e5d3752a664a84c0df4e2809f6100e1e37379ef20481"},{"id":1793657400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76874.9,"price_at_lock":76874.9,"sigma":0.0009597292817960674,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T22:10:04.824Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T22:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.6102861306729662,"mom3":0.05313975752926703,"rev20":0.011724320577096013,"book":1.2167349489701358},"fable":{"p":0.38399980281950535,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 38%. Last candle +0.06%; three-candle momentum +0.01%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.0σ; order book 65/35 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.234 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76866.34,"band":73.78,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T22:10:04.824Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76872.4,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T22:15:04.833Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.147455848565419,"delta":41,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 62% likely; candle closed down (-0.00%). Brier 0.1475. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0232. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.019,"ret1":-0.0116,"mom3":-0.0009,"rev20":0,"book":-0.0232}},"prev_hash":"c547cb759cb7e7093333e5d3752a664a84c0df4e2809f6100e1e37379ef20481","hash":"38526585ed3fdcdbb57e3e77e795185f2c8dcbcabe4fcf8d996b111172f516b2"},{"id":1793657700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76872.4,"price_at_lock":76872.4,"sigma":0.0009433757367675542,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T22:15:04.833Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T22:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.034472338262163796,"mom3":0.4663727741277483,"rev20":0.027441584025828476,"book":1.7977735525223655},"fable":{"p":0.34441117265789606,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 34%. Last candle -0.00%; three-candle momentum +0.04%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.0σ; order book 72/28 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.388 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76861.12,"band":72.52,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T22:15:04.833Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76995.7,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T22:20:04.825Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.42979671053579505,"delta":-72,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 34% likely; candle closed up (+0.16%). Brier 0.4298. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0591. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.033,"ret1":-0.001,"mom3":0.0154,"rev20":0.0011,"book":0.0591}},"prev_hash":"38526585ed3fdcdbb57e3e77e795185f2c8dcbcabe4fcf8d996b111172f516b2","hash":"9365b14da140b1c09754d269cebc7a9bc66c00030e3fcfecc76ccce1a223dc6d"},{"id":1793658000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76995.7,"price_at_lock":76995.7,"sigma":0.0009801640106305305,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T22:20:04.825Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T22:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.6364166295326459,"mom3":2,"rev20":1.576534645110256,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.3,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 30%. Last candle +0.16%; three-candle momentum +0.22%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.6σ; order book 77/23 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.313 in log-odds). Raw model said 22%, capped by policy.","expected_close":76980.61,"band":75.47,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T22:20:04.825Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77004.6,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T22:25:04.802Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 30% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0702. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0351,"ret1":0.0574,"mom3":0.0701,"rev20":0.0554,"book":0.0702}},"prev_hash":"9365b14da140b1c09754d269cebc7a9bc66c00030e3fcfecc76ccce1a223dc6d","hash":"c392fbd37f2608629b14dc35e6a0156d2388b6c6860cd817dd08fab72f3498ad"},{"id":1793658300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77004.6,"price_at_lock":77004.6,"sigma":0.0009785731108228404,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T22:25:04.802Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T22:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.11812185454587935,"mom3":1.7239664274032822,"rev20":1.6219797986364404,"book":0.45855977242033025},"fable":{"p":0.37631728369285494,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 38%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum +0.17%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.6σ; order book 56/44 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.220 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76995.28,"band":75.35,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T22:25:04.802Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76870.6,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T22:30:04.815Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.14161469800596868,"delta":43,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 62% likely; candle closed down (-0.17%). Brier 0.1416. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0324. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0187,"ret1":-0.0022,"mom3":-0.0324,"rev20":-0.0304,"book":-0.0085}},"prev_hash":"c392fbd37f2608629b14dc35e6a0156d2388b6c6860cd817dd08fab72f3498ad","hash":"ed56d74bdbf02cae2b73bc0ebdee7a014610eb36f9702047f4e3d10510e19c0e"},{"id":1793658600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76870.6,"price_at_lock":76857.5,"sigma":0.0010076834321917285,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T22:30:04.815Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T22:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.7268873609605875,"mom3":-0.020451091005952604,"rev20":-0.07364428150829999,"book":-1.167292096768674},"fable":{"p":0.5267260489346108,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 53%. Last candle -0.17%; three-candle momentum -0.00%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.1σ; order book 35/65 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: last candle (+0.113 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76872.67,"band":77.46,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T22:30:04.815Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76827.4,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T22:35:04.811Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.27744033062626605,"delta":-11,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 47% likely; candle closed down (-0.06%). Brier 0.2774. Largest weight change: last-candle +0.0455. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0262,"ret1":0.0455,"mom3":0.0006,"rev20":0.0021,"book":0.0308}},"prev_hash":"ed56d74bdbf02cae2b73bc0ebdee7a014610eb36f9702047f4e3d10510e19c0e","hash":"21315cc080a7c4fcd64d6a92b932783c3c88d15c6e64706694322098e6a5a0e8"},{"id":1793658900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76827.4,"price_at_lock":76827.4,"sigma":0.0009959152232519677,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T22:35:04.811Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T22:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.5642883771074363,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-0.5747974536613978,"book":0.34153367969380716},"fable":{"p":0.5337291646757404,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 53%. Last candle -0.06%; three-candle momentum -0.22%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.6σ; order book 54/46 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: momentum (+0.209 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76829.98,"band":76.51,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T22:35:04.811Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76798.3,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T22:40:05.165Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2848668212254636,"delta":-14,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 47% likely; candle closed down (-0.04%). Brier 0.2849. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0535. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0265,"ret1":0.0151,"mom3":0.0535,"rev20":0.0155,"book":-0.0091}},"prev_hash":"21315cc080a7c4fcd64d6a92b932783c3c88d15c6e64706694322098e6a5a0e8","hash":"f375bb4650dad27788c6e12bea316d3c1c94d5766f1364f9a1329868d0fe1f9e"},{"id":1793659200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76798.3,"price_at_lock":76828.4,"sigma":0.000916994078152884,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T22:40:05.165Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T22:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.41305731905742166,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-1.045166724283436,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.48217930859050884,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 48%. Last candle -0.04%; three-candle momentum -0.27%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.0σ; order book 76/24 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.155 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76797.05,"band":70.42,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T22:40:05.165Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76824.7,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T22:45:04.816Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2681382684518035,"delta":-7,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 48% likely; candle closed up (+0.03%). Brier 0.2681. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0519. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0261,"ret1":-0.0107,"mom3":-0.0517,"rev20":-0.0269,"book":0.0519}},"prev_hash":"f375bb4650dad27788c6e12bea316d3c1c94d5766f1364f9a1329868d0fe1f9e","hash":"65724c8d77072fe34f66ad1f264a98ca86feb7396aa0b965f9522474075b312f"},{"id":1793659500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76824.7,"price_at_lock":76824.6,"sigma":0.0009146114369449393,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T22:45:04.816Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T22:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.37585098472645845,"mom3":-0.6527328078851787,"rev20":-0.674459790839205,"book":1.507220620635743},"fable":{"p":0.4973231614519154,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 50%. Last candle +0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.06%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.7σ; order book 69/31 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.118 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76824.51,"band":70.26,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T22:45:04.816Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76923.4,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T22:50:04.814Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.25268400401269714,"delta":-1,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 50% likely; candle closed up (+0.13%). Brier 0.2527. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0379. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0253,"ret1":0.0095,"mom3":-0.0163,"rev20":-0.0168,"book":0.0379}},"prev_hash":"65724c8d77072fe34f66ad1f264a98ca86feb7396aa0b965f9522474075b312f","hash":"4087a5c908f49c6af6b17d7355f29d343e2492e3659e6a61ae478d476121cddb"},{"id":1793659800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76923.4,"price_at_lock":76923.4,"sigma":0.0009476958444378683,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T22:50:04.814Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T22:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.3556491414803657,"mom3":1.3187032094062476,"rev20":0.6672256022806794,"book":1.6951132095134958},"fable":{"p":0.4017726546989039,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 40%. Last candle +0.13%; three-candle momentum +0.12%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.7σ; order book 71/29 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.157 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76916.24,"band":72.9,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T22:50:04.814Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76902.5,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T22:55:04.814Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.16142126606380466,"delta":35,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 60% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.1614. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0341. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.02,"ret1":-0.0272,"mom3":-0.0264,"rev20":-0.0132,"book":-0.0341}},"prev_hash":"4087a5c908f49c6af6b17d7355f29d343e2492e3659e6a61ae478d476121cddb","hash":"c98e2085f0b0260440fccb57b68f7d573d70085978a18e3c34a27b381c8311ed"},{"id":1793660100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76902.5,"price_at_lock":76902.5,"sigma":0.0009462851040215441,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T22:55:04.814Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T23:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.2871215637972584,"mom3":1.4338192606896785,"rev20":0.3401455252166329,"book":0.9089758511747749},"fable":{"p":0.3923440902831835,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 39%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum +0.14%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.3σ; order book 61/39 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.209 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76894.67,"band":72.77,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T22:55:04.814Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76928.4,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T23:00:04.825Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3692457046137718,"delta":-48,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 39% likely; candle closed up (+0.03%). Brier 0.3692. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0437. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0305,"ret1":-0.0087,"mom3":0.0437,"rev20":0.0105,"book":0.0276}},"prev_hash":"c98e2085f0b0260440fccb57b68f7d573d70085978a18e3c34a27b381c8311ed","hash":"28f153852a8f888da0796d83f2ce588cfde7b0d04a722f296aac648be6d64767"},{"id":1793660400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76928.4,"price_at_lock":76899.7,"sigma":0.0009354002890064473,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T23:00:04.825Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T23:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.3600491632380059,"mom3":1.4430552419596758,"rev20":0.6845095487790519,"book":-0.8901639684611344},"fable":{"p":0.3950051969640241,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 40%. Last candle +0.03%; three-candle momentum +0.13%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.7σ; order book 39/61 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.147 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76920.84,"band":71.96,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T23:00:04.825Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76785.2,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T23:05:04.905Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.15602910562858746,"delta":38,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 60% likely; candle closed down (-0.19%). Brier 0.1560. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0284. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0196,"ret1":-0.0071,"mom3":-0.0284,"rev20":-0.0133,"book":0.0176}},"prev_hash":"28f153852a8f888da0796d83f2ce588cfde7b0d04a722f296aac648be6d64767","hash":"827e8bb183dc52d02afe9fbce7763a052f0d8c683990fd189298fb7bcfcc6454"},{"id":1793660700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76785.2,"price_at_lock":76777.1,"sigma":0.0010171302588190673,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T23:05:04.905Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T23:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.8301207441759988,"mom3":-1.766125762294114,"rev20":-1.1520334585076628,"book":-1.7538229221903103},"fable":{"p":0.5912436452643863,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 59%. Last candle -0.19%; three-candle momentum -0.18%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.2σ; order book 28/72 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.240 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76792.33,"band":78.1,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T23:05:04.905Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76811.1,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T23:10:04.847Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.16708175753674684,"delta":33,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 59% likely; candle closed up (+0.03%). Brier 0.1671. Largest weight change: last-candle -0.0374. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0206,"ret1":-0.0374,"mom3":-0.036,"rev20":-0.0233,"book":-0.0359}},"prev_hash":"827e8bb183dc52d02afe9fbce7763a052f0d8c683990fd189298fb7bcfcc6454","hash":"3c2825c25abba56ef99454c96f633fb6150c57a775d57e0c395847044c9ceaac"},{"id":1793661000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76811.1,"price_at_lock":76830,"sigma":0.0009993522284100327,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T23:10:04.847Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T23:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.3375232226924119,"mom3":-1.1881461574322336,"rev20":-0.8484053744536901,"book":-0.11362036072822708},"fable":{"p":0.5607880657049128,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 56%. Last candle +0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.12%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.8σ; order book 49/51 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: momentum (+0.197 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76815.77,"band":76.76,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T23:10:04.847Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76792.5,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T23:15:04.824Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3144832546370576,"delta":-26,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 44% likely; candle closed down (-0.02%). Brier 0.3145. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0335. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0279,"ret1":-0.0094,"mom3":0.0335,"rev20":0.024,"book":0.0032}},"prev_hash":"3c2825c25abba56ef99454c96f633fb6150c57a775d57e0c395847044c9ceaac","hash":"fa0b616bf9cdf6ddfafaa7545fff4ec8cb6799a0eea6b0dd1c2795781bd8aa3e"},{"id":1793661300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76792.5,"price_at_lock":76793.5,"sigma":0.00098881088016403,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T23:15:04.824Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T23:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.2448926344299413,"mom3":-1.7863062980854645,"rev20":-1.0688219589368089,"book":0.35470881638114243},"fable":{"p":0.5820583443075754,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 58%. Last candle -0.02%; three-candle momentum -0.18%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.1σ; order book 54/46 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: momentum (+0.237 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76798.73,"band":75.93,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T23:15:04.824Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76868.4,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T23:20:04.826Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.17467522756292517,"delta":30,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 58% likely; candle closed up (+0.10%). Brier 0.1747. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0372. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.021,"ret1":-0.005,"mom3":-0.0372,"rev20":-0.0221,"book":0.0074}},"prev_hash":"fa0b616bf9cdf6ddfafaa7545fff4ec8cb6799a0eea6b0dd1c2795781bd8aa3e","hash":"2bbaeb2b574f501e9c517cbf0faa1ce8bc7461b70c7546aa2aa71d79b5654c71"},{"id":1793661600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76868.4,"price_at_lock":76870.3,"sigma":0.0009578671893085926,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T23:20:04.826Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T23:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.031852622470637,"mom3":1.1311900717574446,"rev20":-0.013377579075401875,"book":-1.1161658233576048},"fable":{"p":0.3956231937100659,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 40%. Last candle +0.10%; three-candle momentum +0.11%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.0σ; order book 36/64 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.192 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76860.71,"band":73.63,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T23:20:04.826Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76809.5,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T23:25:04.813Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.15651771140135232,"delta":37,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 60% likely; candle closed down (-0.08%). Brier 0.1565. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0222. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0197,"ret1":-0.0203,"mom3":-0.0222,"rev20":0.0005,"book":0.0221}},"prev_hash":"2bbaeb2b574f501e9c517cbf0faa1ce8bc7461b70c7546aa2aa71d79b5654c71","hash":"ce0f20ff31d300d977c2fda7ae0ad8a166fff43043e37c38c2e9ba8761407ad1"},{"id":1793661900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76809.5,"price_at_lock":76804.6,"sigma":0.0009690834418470663,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T23:25:04.813Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T23:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.790690061976849,"mom3":-0.020658052712516813,"rev20":-0.6995339201232598,"book":-0.9357401597619369},"fable":{"p":0.5223199632534283,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 52%. Last candle -0.08%; three-candle momentum -0.00%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.7σ; order book 38/62 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.160 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76811.16,"band":74.43,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T23:25:04.813Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76768.7,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T23:30:04.839Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2728181440130627,"delta":-9,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 48% likely; candle closed down (-0.05%). Brier 0.2728. Largest weight change: bias -0.0260. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.026,"ret1":0.0208,"mom3":0.0007,"rev20":0.0185,"book":0.0244}},"prev_hash":"ce0f20ff31d300d977c2fda7ae0ad8a166fff43043e37c38c2e9ba8761407ad1","hash":"67c74dc5ac4a91e39860bcad921105c83e60c9d2a3f45767605f45d241a14bec"},{"id":1793662200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76768.7,"price_at_lock":76778.4,"sigma":0.0008608703886327043,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T23:30:04.839Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T23:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.617031670067334,"mom3":-0.358998489341183,"rev20":-1.3781918821214638,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.5853529417026975,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 59%. Last candle -0.05%; three-candle momentum -0.03%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.4σ; order book 79/21 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.290 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76774.34,"band":66.09,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T23:30:04.839Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76813.6,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T23:35:04.820Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.1719321829546066,"delta":31,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 59% likely; candle closed up (+0.06%). Brier 0.1719. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0414. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0209,"ret1":-0.0127,"mom3":-0.0073,"rev20":-0.0284,"book":0.0414}},"prev_hash":"67c74dc5ac4a91e39860bcad921105c83e60c9d2a3f45767605f45d241a14bec","hash":"ba649e2172eea7712f5a7dd19e6404e5cbd7bf3092fcdca466ff5d618a79be53"},{"id":1793662500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76813.6,"price_at_lock":76814.2,"sigma":0.0008474200981266733,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T23:35:04.820Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T23:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.6901816283193477,"mom3":-0.840852321869554,"rev20":-0.6666647890924847,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.5685859710937452,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 57%. Last candle +0.06%; three-candle momentum -0.07%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.7σ; order book 82/18 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.181 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76818.06,"band":65.09,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T23:35:04.820Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76839.4,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T23:40:05.165Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.18611806433712685,"delta":26,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 57% likely; candle closed up (+0.03%). Brier 0.1861. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0431. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0217,"ret1":0.015,"mom3":-0.0179,"rev20":-0.0141,"book":0.0431}},"prev_hash":"ba649e2172eea7712f5a7dd19e6404e5cbd7bf3092fcdca466ff5d618a79be53","hash":"b3000d629a3cda9f1e7975c0ec1896ba96c37aa39cf5fba4e0c37d6ec2b73582"},{"id":1793662800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76839.4,"price_at_lock":76847.1,"sigma":0.0008463134604016981,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T23:40:05.165Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T23:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.3968718888634565,"mom3":0.4603111369649496,"rev20":-0.27150365690632144,"book":0.7930411118768466},"fable":{"p":0.47623369537229393,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 48%. Last candle +0.03%; three-candle momentum +0.04%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.3σ; order book 60/40 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (+0.106 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76837.85,"band":65.03,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T23:40:05.165Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76834.6,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T23:45:04.822Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.22679853260795085,"delta":9,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 52% likely; candle closed down (-0.01%). Brier 0.2268. Largest weight change: bias -0.0237. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0237,"ret1":-0.0094,"mom3":-0.0107,"rev20":0.0067,"book":-0.019}},"prev_hash":"b3000d629a3cda9f1e7975c0ec1896ba96c37aa39cf5fba4e0c37d6ec2b73582","hash":"1a96605cda689b13ec1f3ce3d45380a004782341ef87594e0e3e4c1bea09a13a"},{"id":1793663100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76834.6,"price_at_lock":76834.6,"sigma":0.0008460435550587516,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T23:45:04.822Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T23:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.07383538621057296,"mom3":1.0144676914387325,"rev20":-0.34902165235577426,"book":0.37816790830437685},"fable":{"p":0.43828196210522097,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 44%. Last candle -0.01%; three-candle momentum +0.09%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.3σ; order book 55/45 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.231 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76830.59,"band":65.01,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T23:45:04.822Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76832.6,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T23:50:04.832Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.19209107830680236,"delta":23,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 56% likely; candle closed down (-0.00%). Brier 0.1921. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0220. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0218,"ret1":0.0017,"mom3":-0.022,"rev20":0.0079,"book":-0.0084}},"prev_hash":"1a96605cda689b13ec1f3ce3d45380a004782341ef87594e0e3e4c1bea09a13a","hash":"7f4dc63a3e55152df40b1da1662be073b8844b9dd5367e609c3fdca72bf4dc15"},{"id":1793663400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76832.6,"price_at_lock":76834.9,"sigma":0.0008354305713058927,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T23:50:04.832Z","deadline":"2026-11-02T23:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.031157513898350173,"mom3":0.29611093706829744,"rev20":-0.3516741366705086,"book":0.1851560821170453},"fable":{"p":0.4641812122902832,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 46%. Last candle -0.00%; three-candle momentum +0.02%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.4σ; order book 52/48 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.084 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76830.3,"band":64.19,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T23:50:04.832Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76822.7,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-02T23:55:05.141Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.21546419784327694,"delta":14,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 54% likely; candle closed down (-0.01%). Brier 0.2155. Largest weight change: bias -0.0230. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.023,"ret1":0.0008,"mom3":-0.0066,"rev20":0.0084,"book":-0.0044}},"prev_hash":"7f4dc63a3e55152df40b1da1662be073b8844b9dd5367e609c3fdca72bf4dc15","hash":"d8524c8d5f632c6cc8aa9ceacabe047e7be3d018f3d2df23ead70e39575bae74"},{"id":1793663700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76822.7,"price_at_lock":76822.7,"sigma":0.0008357251714539858,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T23:55:05.141Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.1541793398123505,"mom3":-0.26007287431165405,"rev20":-0.4670101092390182,"book":1.4983849202356392},"fable":{"p":0.535628572687923,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 54%. Last candle -0.01%; three-candle momentum -0.02%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.5σ; order book 69/31 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.152 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76824.99,"band":64.2,"locked_at":"2026-11-02T23:55:05.141Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76807.1,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T00:00:04.920Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.28689796787970157,"delta":-15,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 46% likely; candle closed down (-0.02%). Brier 0.2869. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0402. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0266,"ret1":0.0042,"mom3":0.0072,"rev20":0.0127,"book":-0.0402}},"prev_hash":"d8524c8d5f632c6cc8aa9ceacabe047e7be3d018f3d2df23ead70e39575bae74","hash":"a10737e122da7ed41b05bbef61a61b4c5d4f1d6acd44942a57204da002925906"},{"id":1793664000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76807.1,"price_at_lock":76812.7,"sigma":0.0007469411300613449,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T00:00:04.920Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T00:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.2718620937033522,"mom3":-0.479216446814405,"rev20":-0.6300808577822931,"book":1.9416573302948217},"fable":{"p":0.5439709580728738,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 54%. Last candle -0.02%; three-candle momentum -0.04%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.6σ; order book 74/26 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.137 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76809.62,"band":57.37,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T00:00:04.920Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76783,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T00:05:04.852Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2959044032267202,"delta":-18,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 46% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.2959. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0529. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.027,"ret1":0.0075,"mom3":0.0133,"rev20":0.0174,"book":-0.0529}},"prev_hash":"a10737e122da7ed41b05bbef61a61b4c5d4f1d6acd44942a57204da002925906","hash":"9897eefb9c588ebba95237bbf299ed9b7022736106d8f602e36b6905fb5e11c0"},{"id":1793664300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76783,"price_at_lock":76782.9,"sigma":0.000745963825826734,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T00:05:04.852Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T00:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.4206277366312105,"mom3":-0.8655776433148339,"rev20":-0.8581668297571023,"book":0.07592995319508035},"fable":{"p":0.5404257091370177,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 54%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.06%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.9σ; order book 51/49 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: momentum (+0.204 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76785.32,"band":57.28,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T00:05:04.852Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76700.1,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T00:10:04.837Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.29205994709624844,"delta":-17,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 46% likely; candle closed down (-0.11%). Brier 0.2921. Largest weight change: bias -0.0268. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0268,"ret1":0.0115,"mom3":0.0236,"rev20":0.0234,"book":-0.0021}},"prev_hash":"9897eefb9c588ebba95237bbf299ed9b7022736106d8f602e36b6905fb5e11c0","hash":"9b49214552136c80b71ba0079f1c947cb3bcfccdc5084e3676d2feab293cae0d"},{"id":1793664600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76700.1,"price_at_lock":76706.2,"sigma":0.000686838044531459,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T00:10:04.837Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T00:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.57193690785344,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-2,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.6542455822852189,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 65%. Last candle -0.11%; three-candle momentum -0.16%; price below its 20-candle mean by 2.3σ; order book 79/21 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: momentum (+0.424 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76708.23,"band":52.68,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T00:10:04.837Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76815.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T00:15:05.163Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.11954611736928733,"delta":52,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 65% likely; candle closed up (+0.15%). Brier 0.1195. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0346. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0176,"ret1":-0.0271,"mom3":-0.0344,"rev20":-0.0344,"book":0.0346}},"prev_hash":"9b49214552136c80b71ba0079f1c947cb3bcfccdc5084e3676d2feab293cae0d","hash":"a862091144acd9f196424e5dd7c85a414add9a5fb7359736c3c6f986027dd8f8"},{"id":1793664900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76815.5,"price_at_lock":76800.2,"sigma":0.0007624680234602587,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T00:15:05.163Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T00:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.9732778627624517,"mom3":0.14574004516403102,"rev20":-0.12915037375063815,"book":-0.9819958720376697},"fable":{"p":0.37155323314643474,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 37%. Last candle +0.15%; three-candle momentum +0.01%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.1σ; order book 38/62 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: last candle (-0.215 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76807.98,"band":58.57,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T00:15:05.163Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76972,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T00:20:04.931Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3949453387686994,"delta":-58,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 37% likely; candle closed up (+0.20%). Brier 0.3949. Largest weight change: last-candle +0.0621. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0317,"ret1":0.0621,"mom3":0.0048,"rev20":-0.0038,"book":-0.0309}},"prev_hash":"a862091144acd9f196424e5dd7c85a414add9a5fb7359736c3c6f986027dd8f8","hash":"239a7543e0c0cbcb8dcc54fab97b0d1a4d0ad4f2b1c81dae898785b81471d1b7"},{"id":1793665200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76972,"price_at_lock":76972,"sigma":0.0008768869406254725,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T00:20:04.931Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T00:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":2,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":1.1855643246681649},"fable":{"p":0.3,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 30%. Last candle +0.20%; three-candle momentum +0.25%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.1σ; order book 65/35 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.483 in log-odds). Raw model said 23%, capped by policy.","expected_close":76958.5,"band":67.5,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T00:20:04.931Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77021,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T00:25:04.809Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 30% likely; candle closed up (+0.06%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0702. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0352,"ret1":0.07,"mom3":0.0702,"rev20":0.0702,"book":0.0415}},"prev_hash":"239a7543e0c0cbcb8dcc54fab97b0d1a4d0ad4f2b1c81dae898785b81471d1b7","hash":"420cc0fb5f0bc928d867259773726955f7f9493829c29dc82a2f2ec9909da517"},{"id":1793665500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77021,"price_at_lock":77010.6,"sigma":0.0008830352016790103,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T00:25:04.809Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T00:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.7209170419137931,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":-1.0541528299448293},"fable":{"p":0.3,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 30%. Last candle +0.06%; three-candle momentum +0.42%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.6σ; order book 37/63 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.342 in log-odds). Raw model said 30%, capped by policy.","expected_close":77007.4,"band":68.01,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T00:25:04.809Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77058.4,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T00:30:05.194Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 30% likely; candle closed up (+0.05%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0702. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0352,"ret1":0.0252,"mom3":0.0702,"rev20":0.0701,"book":-0.0369}},"prev_hash":"420cc0fb5f0bc928d867259773726955f7f9493829c29dc82a2f2ec9909da517","hash":"eadd2740aa14f9e726b5558524e801ec152c2db2e9398bbb9926ec0dab545661"},{"id":1793665800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77058.4,"price_at_lock":77062,"sigma":0.000847139012752487,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T00:30:05.194Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T00:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.5732020919703248,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":-1.139443069118414},"fable":{"p":0.3776861825831635,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 38%. Last candle +0.05%; three-candle momentum +0.32%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.2σ; order book 36/64 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.202 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77050.42,"band":65.28,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T00:30:05.194Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77139.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T00:35:04.815Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3872744873479158,"delta":-55,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 38% likely; candle closed up (+0.11%). Brier 0.3873. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0623. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0313,"ret1":0.0178,"mom3":0.0623,"rev20":0.0623,"book":-0.0355}},"prev_hash":"eadd2740aa14f9e726b5558524e801ec152c2db2e9398bbb9926ec0dab545661","hash":"13e9d4313336c29ab59eae29f3e94ad69eb6d1eac17f4ff18ba2254e7f4d5036"},{"id":1793666100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77139.5,"price_at_lock":77150.5,"sigma":0.0008679258594910116,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T00:35:04.815Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T00:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.2126018841734116,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":1.8672061144855645},"fable":{"p":0.45299352861087666,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 45%. Last candle +0.11%; three-candle momentum +0.22%; price above its 20-candle mean by 4.2σ; order book 73/27 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: last candle (+0.081 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77136.35,"band":66.95,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T00:35:04.815Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77132.2,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T00:40:04.836Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.20520313696333314,"delta":18,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 55% likely; candle closed down (-0.01%). Brier 0.2052. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0453. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0225,"ret1":-0.0275,"mom3":-0.0453,"rev20":-0.0453,"book":-0.0423}},"prev_hash":"13e9d4313336c29ab59eae29f3e94ad69eb6d1eac17f4ff18ba2254e7f4d5036","hash":"2300b395cf8e74058339d291c77c3110e138d95f7d4e802cbc00a4c79a66f7bf"},{"id":1793666400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77132.2,"price_at_lock":77153.6,"sigma":0.000868481881334959,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T00:40:04.836Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T00:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.1089645621676261,"mom3":1.6619766858833935,"rev20":2,"book":-1.4730758802961876},"fable":{"p":0.4215088182917859,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 42%. Last candle -0.01%; three-candle momentum +0.14%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.9σ; order book 32/68 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.139 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77126.94,"band":66.99,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T00:40:04.836Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77048.1,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T00:45:04.828Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.17766968389773777,"delta":29,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 58% likely; candle closed down (-0.11%). Brier 0.1777. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0421. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0209,"ret1":0.0023,"mom3":-0.0349,"rev20":-0.0421,"book":0.0311}},"prev_hash":"2300b395cf8e74058339d291c77c3110e138d95f7d4e802cbc00a4c79a66f7bf","hash":"36128344a46ebf7d8319fad6398c9e9fbc78f4de5b4fd0de597aee3c1bfb5182"},{"id":1793666700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77048.1,"price_at_lock":77055.8,"sigma":0.0007929257497809926,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T00:45:04.828Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T00:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.3750793354354531,"mom3":-0.16712917761046317,"rev20":2,"book":0.4257076422110932},"fable":{"p":0.3961352272733466,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 40%. Last candle -0.11%; three-candle momentum -0.01%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.7σ; order book 55/45 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.199 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77041.75,"band":61.09,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T00:45:04.828Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77105.9,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T00:50:04.840Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.36465266374021277,"delta":-46,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 40% likely; candle closed up (+0.08%). Brier 0.3647. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0605. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0304,"ret1":-0.0416,"mom3":-0.0049,"rev20":0.0605,"book":0.0129}},"prev_hash":"36128344a46ebf7d8319fad6398c9e9fbc78f4de5b4fd0de597aee3c1bfb5182","hash":"b3fb3c0c83a19d306f0f2b237bf0fe23e975c38e0630abace68d8691980a7b7c"},{"id":1793667000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77105.9,"price_at_lock":77108.6,"sigma":0.0008023000112020388,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T00:50:04.840Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T00:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.9350376676841679,"mom3":-0.5419279866392265,"rev20":2,"book":-1.0138536719057791},"fable":{"p":0.4666211094317438,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 47%. Last candle +0.08%; three-candle momentum -0.04%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.4σ; order book 37/63 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.078 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77103.84,"band":61.86,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T00:50:04.840Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77044.9,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T00:55:04.860Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.21773525976731142,"delta":13,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 53% likely; candle closed down (-0.08%). Brier 0.2177. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0466. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0232,"ret1":-0.0218,"mom3":0.0128,"rev20":-0.0466,"book":0.0237}},"prev_hash":"b3fb3c0c83a19d306f0f2b237bf0fe23e975c38e0630abace68d8691980a7b7c","hash":"242a3f386e5585174c577d89fd3216a30089858b37ff59ce834d079ed360391e"},{"id":1793667300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77044.9,"price_at_lock":77044.7,"sigma":0.0008257279669461568,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T00:55:04.860Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T01:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.9580876237318731,"mom3":-1.3700333194301637,"rev20":2,"book":1.1510876105854795},"fable":{"p":0.46062119055266704,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 46%. Last candle -0.08%; three-candle momentum -0.11%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.1σ; order book 64/36 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.171 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77042.39,"band":63.62,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T00:55:04.860Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77123,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T01:00:04.841Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2909295000808223,"delta":-16,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 46% likely; candle closed up (+0.10%). Brier 0.2909. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0540. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0271,"ret1":-0.0258,"mom3":-0.0368,"rev20":0.054,"book":0.031}},"prev_hash":"242a3f386e5585174c577d89fd3216a30089858b37ff59ce834d079ed360391e","hash":"7d555c9d38ce5a6bb279fd85a40d694f5f62c7c46ef9b6ca24657f244a97737c"},{"id":1793667600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77123,"price_at_lock":77104.7,"sigma":0.0008270085316879526,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T01:00:04.841Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T01:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.2257365831212335,"mom3":1.1762340533716311,"rev20":2,"book":-1.422917274936472},"fable":{"p":0.3812296219692265,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 38%. Last candle +0.10%; three-candle momentum +0.10%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.1σ; order book 32/68 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.174 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77115.42,"band":63.78,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T01:00:04.841Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77215.9,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T01:05:04.821Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.38287678072834636,"delta":-53,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 38% likely; candle closed up (+0.12%). Brier 0.3829. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0619. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0311,"ret1":0.038,"mom3":0.0365,"rev20":0.0619,"book":-0.0441}},"prev_hash":"7d555c9d38ce5a6bb279fd85a40d694f5f62c7c46ef9b6ca24657f244a97737c","hash":"6cdd2bb0b923af6db8cf34a7626e5fafc20fe5691c3afb3eaf30c73c98bee646"},{"id":1793667900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77215.9,"price_at_lock":77215.8,"sigma":0.0008275091121898349,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T01:05:04.821Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T01:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.4556568702166346,"mom3":1.7246265563073488,"rev20":2,"book":0.6730612813309325},"fable":{"p":0.43575446719521427,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 44%. Last candle +0.12%; three-candle momentum +0.14%; price above its 20-candle mean by 4.3σ; order book 58/42 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.192 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77211.79,"band":63.9,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T01:05:04.821Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77228.8,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T01:10:04.811Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.31837302129015654,"delta":-27,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 44% likely; candle closed up (+0.02%). Brier 0.3184. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0564. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0283,"ret1":0.0411,"mom3":0.0488,"rev20":0.0564,"book":0.019}},"prev_hash":"6cdd2bb0b923af6db8cf34a7626e5fafc20fe5691c3afb3eaf30c73c98bee646","hash":"22674294d6c69a125a548246dec7ee953b6c956c549d94080af71c070d755a81"},{"id":1793668200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77228.8,"price_at_lock":77228.8,"sigma":0.0008077068166516413,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T01:10:04.811Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T01:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.2068374735547961,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":-1.044888452919673},"fable":{"p":0.49136050027869643,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 49%. Last candle +0.02%; three-candle momentum +0.24%; price above its 20-candle mean by 4.2σ; order book 37/63 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.173 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77228.26,"band":62.38,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T01:10:04.811Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77225.1,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T01:15:04.842Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.24143514123413085,"delta":3,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 51% likely; candle closed down (-0.00%). Brier 0.2414. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0492. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0245,"ret1":-0.0051,"mom3":-0.0491,"rev20":-0.0492,"book":0.0257}},"prev_hash":"22674294d6c69a125a548246dec7ee953b6c956c549d94080af71c070d755a81","hash":"1076b61b131b0aef149a9721f48a3b9e24668b92d1a80646574d5d0bca0796e3"},{"id":1793668500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77225.1,"price_at_lock":77226.3,"sigma":0.0008082879533281459,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T01:15:04.842Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T01:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.05927292116085349,"mom3":1.6376883610251283,"rev20":2,"book":1.0224342110503721},"fable":{"p":0.45628661788260005,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 46%. Last candle -0.00%; three-candle momentum +0.13%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.8σ; order book 63/37 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.183 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77222.37,"band":62.42,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T01:15:04.842Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77286.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T01:20:04.965Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.29562424189354175,"delta":-18,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 46% likely; candle closed up (+0.08%). Brier 0.2956. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0543. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0273,"ret1":-0.0016,"mom3":0.0446,"rev20":0.0543,"book":0.0278}},"prev_hash":"1076b61b131b0aef149a9721f48a3b9e24668b92d1a80646574d5d0bca0796e3","hash":"0281adbec986dd1513afbe7d471cf98c2151743374abc8ef1bc91a8fd5ead461"},{"id":1793668800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77286.5,"price_at_lock":77275,"sigma":0.0008163854828119147,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T01:20:04.965Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T01:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.9739005664265463,"mom3":1.1198542264376434,"rev20":2,"book":-1.6025977086035932},"fable":{"p":0.48856475258714477,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 49%. Last candle +0.08%; three-candle momentum +0.09%; price above its 20-candle mean by 4.4σ; order book 30/70 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.184 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77285.78,"band":63.1,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T01:20:04.965Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77284.5,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T01:25:04.819Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.238695517470538,"delta":5,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 51% likely; candle closed down (-0.00%). Brier 0.2387. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0489. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0244,"ret1":-0.0238,"mom3":-0.0273,"rev20":-0.0489,"book":0.0391}},"prev_hash":"0281adbec986dd1513afbe7d471cf98c2151743374abc8ef1bc91a8fd5ead461","hash":"d0cf45f6e72490c2ac5ca84b678762ee4ae06bcc81146b0e880ce9a59f72f566"},{"id":1793669100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77284.5,"price_at_lock":77284.6,"sigma":0.0008156331699063256,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T01:25:04.819Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T01:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.03172718026835394,"mom3":0.8843325431068707,"rev20":2,"book":-0.4524694081548347},"fable":{"p":0.4640034445982257,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 46%. Last candle -0.00%; three-candle momentum +0.07%; price above its 20-candle mean by 4.0σ; order book 44/56 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.086 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77282.23,"band":63.04,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T01:25:04.819Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77293.3,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T01:30:04.911Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2872923074025673,"delta":-15,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 46% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.2873. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0536. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0269,"ret1":-0.0009,"mom3":0.0238,"rev20":0.0536,"book":-0.0122}},"prev_hash":"d0cf45f6e72490c2ac5ca84b678762ee4ae06bcc81146b0e880ce9a59f72f566","hash":"593c57e6328226693c24be93272ab33b414a5c14d9883e7cd131a4b4ef2079cf"},{"id":1793669400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77293.3,"price_at_lock":77293.5,"sigma":0.0008134702782579185,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T01:30:04.911Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T01:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.13997438912778787,"mom3":1.0855535505026106,"rev20":2,"book":-1.083054474450787},"fable":{"p":0.4862342479516307,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 49%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum +0.09%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.8σ; order book 36/64 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.193 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77292.43,"band":62.88,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T01:30:04.911Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77233.3,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T01:35:04.823Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.23642374388108792,"delta":5,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 51% likely; candle closed down (-0.08%). Brier 0.2364. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0487. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0242,"ret1":-0.0034,"mom3":-0.0263,"rev20":-0.0487,"book":0.0262}},"prev_hash":"593c57e6328226693c24be93272ab33b414a5c14d9883e7cd131a4b4ef2079cf","hash":"f8fc43b81acd8a79c06ee58d09280e3b93ea7b5a458658e7df2f551c7abd0d52"},{"id":1793669700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77233.3,"price_at_lock":77235.7,"sigma":0.0008422359796239963,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T01:35:04.823Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T01:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.9216703372479479,"mom3":-0.8172016766979945,"rev20":2,"book":-1.4377641567789463},"fable":{"p":0.47810197623738165,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 48%. Last candle -0.08%; three-candle momentum -0.07%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.4σ; order book 32/68 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.168 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77231.88,"band":65.05,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T01:35:04.823Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77164.8,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T01:40:04.926Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.22858149968208985,"delta":9,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 52% likely; candle closed down (-0.09%). Brier 0.2286. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0479. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0238,"ret1":0.022,"mom3":0.0196,"rev20":-0.0479,"book":0.0343}},"prev_hash":"f8fc43b81acd8a79c06ee58d09280e3b93ea7b5a458658e7df2f551c7abd0d52","hash":"97677bb0a634574f1487e7f24c4aae004f2956543c3adf88c999af5830180b03"},{"id":1793670000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77164.8,"price_at_lock":77173.5,"sigma":0.0008739081764143889,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T01:40:04.926Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T01:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.014892813289877,"mom3":-1.7728659413448604,"rev20":1.0539847167452303,"book":1.995460123843049},"fable":{"p":0.5740892849122091,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 57%. Last candle -0.09%; three-candle momentum -0.15%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.1σ; order book 75/25 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.302 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77169.8,"band":67.43,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T01:40:04.926Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77141.1,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T01:45:04.825Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3295785070510116,"delta":-32,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 43% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.3296. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0574. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0286,"ret1":0.0291,"mom3":0.051,"rev20":-0.0303,"book":-0.0574}},"prev_hash":"97677bb0a634574f1487e7f24c4aae004f2956543c3adf88c999af5830180b03","hash":"63ba7c6050a2a7fd6c570041fc42880929c4954dd793d5f8e5a3dafec0366967"},{"id":1793670300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77141.1,"price_at_lock":77126.6,"sigma":0.0008737017896205627,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T01:45:04.825Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T01:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.35153282626456855,"mom3":-2,"rev20":0.4364532270710548,"book":-0.8777599749606745},"fable":{"p":0.4477306582739457,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 45%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.20%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.4σ; order book 39/61 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.082 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77137.58,"band":67.4,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T01:45:04.825Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77217.2,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T01:50:04.811Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3050014258105293,"delta":-22,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 45% likely; candle closed up (+0.10%). Brier 0.3050. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0552. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0278,"ret1":-0.0098,"mom3":-0.0552,"rev20":0.0121,"book":-0.0243}},"prev_hash":"63ba7c6050a2a7fd6c570041fc42880929c4954dd793d5f8e5a3dafec0366967","hash":"c9f0fbde413d56ab6e10630bcd8f9d788658bb470646addcb1ce7d24124a0516"},{"id":1793670600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77217.2,"price_at_lock":77217.2,"sigma":0.0008336092397365161,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T01:50:04.811Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T01:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.183412928773403,"mom3":-0.24898240733559457,"rev20":1.238675134394047,"book":0.18995805871779534},"fable":{"p":0.4833075652613708,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 48%. Last candle +0.10%; three-candle momentum -0.02%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.2σ; order book 52/48 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: last candle (+0.045 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77216.13,"band":64.37,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T01:50:04.811Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77223.4,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T01:55:04.933Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.26697107211613263,"delta":-7,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 48% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.2670. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0320. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.026,"ret1":0.0305,"mom3":-0.0064,"rev20":0.032,"book":0.0048}},"prev_hash":"c9f0fbde413d56ab6e10630bcd8f9d788658bb470646addcb1ce7d24124a0516","hash":"731c2213275dbec001fea16b1aa7ee7f5b0163fd94efc2c4472ed1f3a1577b46"},{"id":1793670900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77223.4,"price_at_lock":77223.4,"sigma":0.000790491925697553,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T01:55:04.933Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T02:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.10157344952762269,"mom3":0.9609991695714264,"rev20":1.07316064208405,"book":-0.7734072811366642},"fable":{"p":0.4461543026925341,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 45%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum +0.08%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.1σ; order book 40/60 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.084 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77220.11,"band":61.04,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T01:55:04.933Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77112.9,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T02:00:04.867Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.19905366181106132,"delta":20,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 55% likely; candle closed down (-0.14%). Brier 0.1991. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0240. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0222,"ret1":-0.0023,"mom3":-0.0214,"rev20":-0.024,"book":0.0172}},"prev_hash":"731c2213275dbec001fea16b1aa7ee7f5b0163fd94efc2c4472ed1f3a1577b46","hash":"a1ab2270bb2398df783c7cec75419cd3ec2f96a94f8208fd11db03d84a7b8078"},{"id":1793671200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77112.9,"price_at_lock":77111,"sigma":0.0007626289119632223,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T02:00:04.867Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T02:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.876290559338521,"mom3":-0.4774490955133989,"rev20":-0.8851579767673642,"book":-1.7846997955331265},"fable":{"p":0.4148355810230325,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 41%. Last candle -0.14%; three-candle momentum -0.04%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.9σ; order book 28/72 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.163 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77107.89,"band":58.81,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T02:00:04.867Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77103.2,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T02:05:04.891Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.17208855928271694,"delta":31,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 59% likely; candle closed down (-0.01%). Brier 0.1721. Largest weight change: last-candle +0.0389. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0206,"ret1":0.0389,"mom3":0.01,"rev20":0.0184,"book":0.0369}},"prev_hash":"a1ab2270bb2398df783c7cec75419cd3ec2f96a94f8208fd11db03d84a7b8078","hash":"09843c56e1da97b32b48333189bc22adc4fae26485d0c2c7c14b621e72020eaa"},{"id":1793671500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77103.2,"price_at_lock":77103.2,"sigma":0.0007534402689819602,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T02:05:04.891Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T02:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.16695363150827544,"mom3":-1.9595581572835055,"rev20":-1.1334259488085123,"book":-1.359651369687572},"fable":{"p":0.46350241684379506,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 46%. Last candle -0.01%; three-candle momentum -0.15%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.1σ; order book 33/67 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (+0.194 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77101.08,"band":58.09,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T02:05:04.891Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76967.8,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T02:10:04.822Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.21483449042003916,"delta":14,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 54% likely; candle closed down (-0.18%). Brier 0.2148. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0455. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.023,"ret1":0.0038,"mom3":0.0455,"rev20":0.0263,"book":0.0314}},"prev_hash":"09843c56e1da97b32b48333189bc22adc4fae26485d0c2c7c14b621e72020eaa","hash":"be13bc850dc752b77bc849961376d6c643c9870cfb14ec8d0f77e9bdcaf12495"},{"id":1793671800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76967.8,"price_at_lock":76947,"sigma":0.0008423371480785131,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T02:10:04.822Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T02:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-2,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-2,"book":1.3404327845496502},"fable":{"p":0.46842946166937993,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 47%. Last candle -0.18%; three-candle momentum -0.33%; price below its 20-candle mean by 3.0σ; order book 67/33 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: last candle (-0.217 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76965.75,"band":64.83,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T02:10:04.822Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77003.6,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T02:15:04.960Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2825672372211052,"delta":-13,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 47% likely; candle closed up (+0.05%). Brier 0.2826. Largest weight change: last-candle -0.0533. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0267,"ret1":-0.0533,"mom3":-0.0531,"rev20":-0.0532,"book":0.0355}},"prev_hash":"be13bc850dc752b77bc849961376d6c643c9870cfb14ec8d0f77e9bdcaf12495","hash":"a1c543bb4e4b52ce82ff4ded9fa7b4e81b8526648c92380a6731ca22b81c0897"},{"id":1793672100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77003.6,"price_at_lock":77016.5,"sigma":0.0008128164956308813,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T02:15:04.960Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T02:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.5722442595175068,"mom3":-1.743010836332405,"rev20":-2,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.6248614180618546,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 62%. Last candle +0.05%; three-candle momentum -0.14%; price below its 20-candle mean by 2.5σ; order book 84/16 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.391 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77011.42,"band":62.59,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T02:15:04.960Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76949.4,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T02:20:04.842Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3904517917822718,"delta":-56,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 38% likely; candle closed down (-0.07%). Brier 0.3905. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0627. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0311,"ret1":-0.0179,"mom3":0.0546,"rev20":0.0625,"book":-0.0627}},"prev_hash":"a1c543bb4e4b52ce82ff4ded9fa7b4e81b8526648c92380a6731ca22b81c0897","hash":"d1b279641126451ec07045a45ae8ecda61c5a0a4ce6de5c3c5a000b9d28bfaf0"},{"id":1793672400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76949.4,"price_at_lock":76939.5,"sigma":0.0008238417634264717,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T02:20:04.842Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T02:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.854366975860883,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-2,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.39014610663103155,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 39%. Last candle -0.07%; three-candle momentum -0.20%; price below its 20-candle mean by 3.1σ; order book 17/83 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.265 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76942.44,"band":63.39,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T02:20:04.842Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76963.9,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T02:25:04.954Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.37192177125728915,"delta":-49,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 39% likely; candle closed up (+0.02%). Brier 0.3719. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0611. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0307,"ret1":-0.0261,"mom3":-0.0609,"rev20":-0.061,"book":-0.0611}},"prev_hash":"d1b279641126451ec07045a45ae8ecda61c5a0a4ce6de5c3c5a000b9d28bfaf0","hash":"5463c80b14415a971a5bedab25de822ee284416e43660c89ada1e8cdcaad7501"},{"id":1793672700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76963.9,"price_at_lock":76985.7,"sigma":0.0007950394603162336,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T02:25:04.954Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T02:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.23701404366898415,"mom3":-0.0632649163787409,"rev20":-2,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.5129050378687565,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 51%. Last candle +0.02%; three-candle momentum -0.01%; price below its 20-candle mean by 2.9σ; order book 80/20 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: order book (+0.143 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76964.69,"band":61.19,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T02:25:04.954Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76974.7,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T02:30:04.847Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.23726150213363753,"delta":5,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 51% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.2373. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0487. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0245,"ret1":0.0058,"mom3":-0.0014,"rev20":-0.0487,"book":0.0486}},"prev_hash":"5463c80b14415a971a5bedab25de822ee284416e43660c89ada1e8cdcaad7501","hash":"b23f4541cbb94c7daa0f9323afc1741db386e3085b39a912d476477d48b5aa92"},{"id":1793673000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76974.7,"price_at_lock":76978.6,"sigma":0.0007750413972910091,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T02:30:04.847Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T02:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.18105552778489908,"mom3":-0.4839769213748246,"rev20":-2,"book":1.280363813661374},"fable":{"p":0.5579859334585073,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 56%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum -0.04%; price below its 20-candle mean by 2.7σ; order book 66/34 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.154 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76978.16,"band":59.66,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T02:30:04.847Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77007.1,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T02:35:05.144Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.1953764350205471,"delta":22,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 56% likely; candle closed up (+0.04%). Brier 0.1954. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0441. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0222,"ret1":0.004,"mom3":-0.0106,"rev20":-0.0441,"book":0.0282}},"prev_hash":"b23f4541cbb94c7daa0f9323afc1741db386e3085b39a912d476477d48b5aa92","hash":"fab829100475da993a3d7b7bdb418843a8958ec0b7e320503e310d75675837cd"},{"id":1793673300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77007.1,"price_at_lock":77020.4,"sigma":0.0007647648753864706,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T02:35:05.144Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T02:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.5503881464721063,"mom3":0.9802732748149695,"rev20":-2,"book":1.5750123921410148},"fable":{"p":0.5631068084498504,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 56%. Last candle +0.04%; three-candle momentum +0.07%; price below its 20-candle mean by 2.2σ; order book 70/30 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.234 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77010.82,"band":58.89,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T02:35:05.144Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76966.7,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T02:40:05.153Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3170892777225765,"delta":-27,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 44% likely; candle closed down (-0.05%). Brier 0.3171. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0564. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0281,"ret1":-0.0155,"mom3":-0.0275,"rev20":0.0564,"book":-0.0445}},"prev_hash":"fab829100475da993a3d7b7bdb418843a8958ec0b7e320503e310d75675837cd","hash":"2b57eb4ad5563c4880313ff2333f8de508f38e935704dd80c38253f910e0dcd9"},{"id":1793673600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76966.7,"price_at_lock":76964,"sigma":0.0007332138188232971,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T02:40:05.153Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T02:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.7155169972445395,"mom3":0.049939186319096426,"rev20":-2,"book":-1.9346330425564044},"fable":{"p":0.4447518253268366,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 44%. Last candle -0.05%; three-candle momentum +0.00%; price below its 20-candle mean by 2.9σ; order book 26/74 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.201 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76963.58,"band":56.43,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T02:40:05.153Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76928.8,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T02:45:04.833Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.19780418613155298,"delta":21,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 56% likely; candle closed down (-0.05%). Brier 0.1978. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0445. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0221,"ret1":0.0159,"mom3":-0.001,"rev20":0.0445,"book":0.0429}},"prev_hash":"2b57eb4ad5563c4880313ff2333f8de508f38e935704dd80c38253f910e0dcd9","hash":"4cedbe15cd30a06969becb292f7b669d1cc27588bcfd246c6c2fe146e2ac8d58"},{"id":1793673900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76928.8,"price_at_lock":76935.9,"sigma":0.0006729121696515034,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T02:45:04.833Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T02:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.731775661671634,"mom3":-0.8858959650470759,"rev20":-2,"book":-0.2854010827300552},"fable":{"p":0.48941549519432964,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 49%. Last candle -0.05%; three-candle momentum -0.06%; price below its 20-candle mean by 3.6σ; order book 46/54 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: momentum (+0.136 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76928.25,"band":51.77,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T02:45:04.833Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76896.4,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T02:50:05.002Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2395275269363109,"delta":4,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 51% likely; candle closed down (-0.04%). Brier 0.2395. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0490. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0243,"ret1":0.0179,"mom3":0.0218,"rev20":0.049,"book":0.0068}},"prev_hash":"4cedbe15cd30a06969becb292f7b669d1cc27588bcfd246c6c2fe146e2ac8d58","hash":"47f5e8d208022e202efdd9b2c26dacc74dc45f428dab5440dfa0f0beea02f4e7"},{"id":1793674200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76896.4,"price_at_lock":76904.1,"sigma":0.0006696847495417656,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T02:50:05.002Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T02:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.6289058625564042,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-2,"book":1.4149780894999027},"fable":{"p":0.5529915344072053,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 55%. Last candle -0.04%; three-candle momentum -0.14%; price below its 20-candle mean by 3.9σ; order book 68/32 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: momentum (+0.263 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76899.13,"band":51.5,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T02:50:05.002Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76844.3,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T02:55:05.057Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3057996371260353,"delta":-22,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 45% likely; candle closed down (-0.07%). Brier 0.3058. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0554. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0275,"ret1":0.0173,"mom3":0.0554,"rev20":0.0553,"book":-0.0393}},"prev_hash":"47f5e8d208022e202efdd9b2c26dacc74dc45f428dab5440dfa0f0beea02f4e7","hash":"810697a0f6fb3f76687490aa938432c1fbd1020d399bdd8627c0acdc20cd9655"},{"id":1793674500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76844.3,"price_at_lock":76845.8,"sigma":0.0006758409724255021,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T02:55:05.057Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T03:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.0025065019298818,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-2,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.4857913150708421,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 49%. Last candle -0.07%; three-candle momentum -0.16%; price below its 20-candle mean by 4.5σ; order book 79/21 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: order book (+0.229 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76843.56,"band":51.93,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T02:55:05.057Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76707.5,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T03:00:05.055Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2359932017982582,"delta":6,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 51% likely; candle closed down (-0.18%). Brier 0.2360. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0487. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0241,"ret1":0.0243,"mom3":0.0487,"rev20":0.0485,"book":-0.0487}},"prev_hash":"810697a0f6fb3f76687490aa938432c1fbd1020d399bdd8627c0acdc20cd9655","hash":"02cd091343c8769b0f884691c05315935d14122d1c15b49b0add7b0364d6a4d6"},{"id":1793674800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76707.5,"price_at_lock":76706.8,"sigma":0.0007095406253458175,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T03:00:05.055Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T03:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-2,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-2,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.38282645401844784,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 38%. Last candle -0.18%; three-candle momentum -0.29%; price below its 20-candle mean by 6.3σ; order book 80/20 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.287 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76701.12,"band":54.43,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T03:00:05.055Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76547.2,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T03:05:04.843Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.14655609389633875,"delta":41,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 62% likely; candle closed down (-0.21%). Brier 0.1466. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0383. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0189,"ret1":0.0382,"mom3":0.0383,"rev20":0.0381,"book":-0.0383}},"prev_hash":"02cd091343c8769b0f884691c05315935d14122d1c15b49b0add7b0364d6a4d6","hash":"bab3a615168199fc37c363866e2197e0e68740ce47f807068b6e3980a21e3ef9"},{"id":1793675100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76547.2,"price_at_lock":76579.8,"sigma":0.0007959813087886859,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T03:05:04.843Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T03:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-2,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-2,"book":-0.5872259049172586},"fable":{"p":0.3,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 30%. Last candle -0.21%; three-candle momentum -0.45%; price below its 20-candle mean by 7.6σ; order book 43/57 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.363 in log-odds). Raw model said 29%, capped by policy.","expected_close":76535.01,"band":60.93,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T03:05:04.843Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76868.6,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T03:10:04.891Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 30% likely; candle closed up (+0.42%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0702. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0352,"ret1":-0.0701,"mom3":-0.07,"rev20":-0.0702,"book":-0.0206}},"prev_hash":"bab3a615168199fc37c363866e2197e0e68740ce47f807068b6e3980a21e3ef9","hash":"2c3bad49c5e19027f8fd99c70dedc3235f2538951e99b97bfb9035bd3977ec4b"},{"id":1793675400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76868.6,"price_at_lock":76868.6,"sigma":0.0012916237716663374,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T03:10:04.891Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T03:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":2,"mom3":0.254514469951691,"rev20":-1.2318046416602726,"book":0.00897361680431939},"fable":{"p":0.4369989933731591,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 44%. Last candle +0.42%; three-candle momentum +0.03%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.2σ; order book 50/50 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.137 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76862.34,"band":99.29,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T03:10:04.891Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76911.9,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T03:15:04.985Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3169701334628362,"delta":-27,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 44% likely; candle closed up (+0.06%). Brier 0.3170. Largest weight change: last-candle +0.0563. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0283,"ret1":0.0563,"mom3":0.0072,"rev20":-0.0348,"book":0.0002}},"prev_hash":"2c3bad49c5e19027f8fd99c70dedc3235f2538951e99b97bfb9035bd3977ec4b","hash":"d1da74dd66ce041bf01b5cc5fc8278e85695664c313b5267ecb4ceabebf69ac5"},{"id":1793675700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76911.9,"price_at_lock":76931.5,"sigma":0.0012985872606097722,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T03:15:04.985Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T03:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.43377826457065766,"mom3":2,"rev20":-0.6315102652721423,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.4345143622291835,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 43%. Last candle +0.06%; three-candle momentum +0.27%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.6σ; order book 78/22 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.104 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76905.36,"band":99.88,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T03:15:04.985Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76964.3,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T03:20:04.869Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3197740065250671,"delta":-28,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 43% likely; candle closed up (+0.07%). Brier 0.3198. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0566. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0284,"ret1":0.0122,"mom3":0.0566,"rev20":-0.0179,"book":0.0565}},"prev_hash":"d1da74dd66ce041bf01b5cc5fc8278e85695664c313b5267ecb4ceabebf69ac5","hash":"37d7980f23afa31342302cf1537cc66a59612a978c538f1183894fd4836a53d1"},{"id":1793676000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76964.3,"price_at_lock":76964.3,"sigma":0.0013025437024279485,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T03:20:04.869Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T03:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.5230526941044775,"mom3":2,"rev20":-0.006982524413164935,"book":1.431749952532082},"fable":{"p":0.504745865758302,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 50%. Last candle +0.07%; three-candle momentum +0.54%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.0σ; order book 68/32 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: order book (+0.091 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76964.78,"band":100.25,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T03:20:04.869Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76938.2,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T03:25:04.828Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.25476838900009785,"delta":-2,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 50% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.2548. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0505. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0251,"ret1":-0.0133,"mom3":-0.0505,"rev20":0.0001,"book":-0.0362}},"prev_hash":"37d7980f23afa31342302cf1537cc66a59612a978c538f1183894fd4836a53d1","hash":"eb4e8bb28d9b94745025e246bf4e9fbd0974160b47bdba57bdaee503d57879ae"},{"id":1793676300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76938.2,"price_at_lock":76948.3,"sigma":0.0013027807515447428,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T03:25:04.828Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T03:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.26030340571039695,"mom3":0.6950361013930637,"rev20":-0.16612587427715367,"book":0.5033359612748135},"fable":{"p":0.4446968996734018,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 44%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum +0.09%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.2σ; order book 56/44 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.032 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76932.66,"band":100.23,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T03:25:04.828Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76821.8,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T03:30:05.542Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.1977553325791356,"delta":21,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 56% likely; candle closed down (-0.15%). Brier 0.1978. Largest weight change: bias -0.0221. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0221,"ret1":0.0057,"mom3":-0.0154,"rev20":0.0036,"book":-0.0112}},"prev_hash":"eb4e8bb28d9b94745025e246bf4e9fbd0974160b47bdba57bdaee503d57879ae","hash":"1108d9d251360beb5546ad515d457c5fc5fb8db963dd4c9ae96408ea16f55519"},{"id":1793676600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76821.8,"price_at_lock":76800.1,"sigma":0.0013094673639042656,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T03:30:05.542Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T03:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.1553572124509826,"mom3":-0.8940443033590925,"rev20":-1.1244840305741912,"book":-1.23446404448803},"fable":{"p":0.4131031098112964,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 41%. Last candle -0.15%; three-candle momentum -0.12%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.1σ; order book 35/65 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: last candle (-0.127 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76813.06,"band":100.6,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T03:30:05.542Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76750.1,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T03:35:05.483Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.170654179335764,"delta":32,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 59% likely; candle closed down (-0.09%). Brier 0.1707. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0255. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0205,"ret1":0.0238,"mom3":0.0185,"rev20":0.0232,"book":0.0255}},"prev_hash":"1108d9d251360beb5546ad515d457c5fc5fb8db963dd4c9ae96408ea16f55519","hash":"63da7734ab944dfec814f249e8e876fe8b9d136ca1fba634a75133b246998438"},{"id":1793676900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76750.1,"price_at_lock":76750.1,"sigma":0.0013150819721261516,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T03:35:05.483Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T03:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.7097115164740453,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-1.594940768903299,"book":-0.5597786913163662},"fable":{"p":0.4064396376005031,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 41%. Last candle -0.09%; three-candle momentum -0.28%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.6σ; order book 43/57 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.137 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76740.66,"band":100.93,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T03:35:05.483Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76737.7,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T03:40:05.666Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.1651931790128283,"delta":34,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 59% likely; candle closed down (-0.02%). Brier 0.1652. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0407. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0201,"ret1":0.0143,"mom3":0.0407,"rev20":0.0323,"book":0.0113}},"prev_hash":"63da7734ab944dfec814f249e8e876fe8b9d136ca1fba634a75133b246998438","hash":"a676fe168a51d61b8a17c95a302236601b765b0b0a093e08e3dddb50727fd218"},{"id":1793677200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76737.7,"price_at_lock":76722.5,"sigma":0.0012896685860461384,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T03:40:05.666Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T03:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.1252750583813206,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-1.5626315958914003,"book":-1.1595132206468066},"fable":{"p":0.3799441213360979,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 38%. Last candle -0.02%; three-candle momentum -0.26%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.6σ; order book 36/64 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.184 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76725.82,"band":98.97,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T03:40:05.666Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76751.3,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T03:45:05.548Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3844692926656637,"delta":-54,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 38% likely; candle closed up (+0.02%). Brier 0.3845. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0620. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0312,"ret1":-0.004,"mom3":-0.062,"rev20":-0.0486,"book":-0.036}},"prev_hash":"a676fe168a51d61b8a17c95a302236601b765b0b0a093e08e3dddb50727fd218","hash":"c57fd5280fdead97fb05ddf46f9255888f9c38274e838e78219fdd23ba143dd0"},{"id":1793677500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76751.3,"price_at_lock":76761.4,"sigma":0.0012927329723368378,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T03:45:05.548Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T03:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.13709490156114973,"mom3":-0.7098643325300237,"rev20":-1.2453846948326142,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.45359798242246807,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 45%. Last candle +0.02%; three-candle momentum -0.09%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.2σ; order book 82/18 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.086 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76746.7,"band":99.22,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T03:45:05.548Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76934.6,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T03:50:05.546Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.29855516481279754,"delta":-19,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 45% likely; candle closed up (+0.24%). Brier 0.2986. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0546. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0275,"ret1":0.0036,"mom3":-0.0193,"rev20":-0.0341,"book":0.0546}},"prev_hash":"c57fd5280fdead97fb05ddf46f9255888f9c38274e838e78219fdd23ba143dd0","hash":"ac30bcd83f0e9baa5c56e992db639f137e73f2a957b03005776113d88481d6b1"},{"id":1793677800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76934.6,"price_at_lock":76934.5,"sigma":0.0013614859980585526,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T03:50:05.546Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T03:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.7541371463848796,"mom3":1.7656420698289859,"rev20":0.5846913136528527,"book":-0.40012249294485347},"fable":{"p":0.4830481381199738,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 48%. Last candle +0.24%; three-candle momentum +0.24%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.6σ; order book 45/55 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.14%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: last candle (+0.258 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76932.82,"band":104.75,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T03:50:05.546Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76934.5,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T03:55:05.637Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.23333550374117332,"delta":7,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 52% likely; candle closed down (-0.00%). Brier 0.2333. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0426. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.024,"ret1":-0.0425,"mom3":-0.0426,"rev20":-0.0142,"book":0.0096}},"prev_hash":"ac30bcd83f0e9baa5c56e992db639f137e73f2a957b03005776113d88481d6b1","hash":"b472ce4fb3132276460d4c5b373cfa5ae649ce713dc94b07e2ba6e63a7781b76"},{"id":1793678100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76934.5,"price_at_lock":76944.9,"sigma":0.0013569524827780988,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T03:55:05.637Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T04:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.0009578856339775732,"mom3":1.8896464616991617,"rev20":0.6188351988399693,"book":-0.21246030103490876},"fable":{"p":0.39240703326029874,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 39%. Last candle -0.00%; three-candle momentum +0.26%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.6σ; order book 47/53 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.14%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.238 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76923.27,"band":104.4,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T03:55:05.637Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76929.9,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T04:00:05.425Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.1539832797521492,"delta":38,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 61% likely; candle closed down (-0.01%). Brier 0.1540. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0369. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0194,"ret1":-0.0001,"mom3":-0.0369,"rev20":-0.0122,"book":0.0041}},"prev_hash":"b472ce4fb3132276460d4c5b373cfa5ae649ce713dc94b07e2ba6e63a7781b76","hash":"de7d4e438ce2d66cd7f07967acbb16d06491cc3f5549152c69ba369c20183e23"},{"id":1793678400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76929.9,"price_at_lock":76916.1,"sigma":0.0013485260037842113,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T04:00:05.425Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T04:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.044338129817904554,"mom3":1.7256932611155908,"rev20":0.5877398291337895,"book":-1.1791994942199813},"fable":{"p":0.35542715599035807,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 36%. Last candle -0.01%; three-candle momentum +0.23%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.6σ; order book 35/65 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.281 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76914.9,"band":103.74,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T04:00:05.425Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76762.4,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T04:05:05.383Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.12632846321539432,"delta":49,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 64% likely; candle closed down (-0.22%). Brier 0.1263. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0305. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0176,"ret1":0.0007,"mom3":-0.0305,"rev20":-0.0105,"book":0.0209}},"prev_hash":"de7d4e438ce2d66cd7f07967acbb16d06491cc3f5549152c69ba369c20183e23","hash":"ab59222209930b94e2f768a2c9412ab7c82ad0cc90131720deec888d91b8ff74"},{"id":1793678700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76762.4,"price_at_lock":76808.5,"sigma":0.0014272369553049748,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T04:05:05.383Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T04:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.5255398655334877,"mom3":-1.5683434981613955,"rev20":-0.8797050122722617,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.5309386980302194,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 53%. Last candle -0.22%; three-candle momentum -0.22%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.9σ; order book 79/21 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.14%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: momentum (+0.303 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76765.79,"band":109.56,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T04:05:05.383Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76853.3,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T04:10:05.722Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.22001850500558567,"delta":12,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 53% likely; candle closed up (+0.12%). Brier 0.2200. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0468. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0237,"ret1":-0.0359,"mom3":-0.0366,"rev20":-0.0206,"book":0.0468}},"prev_hash":"ab59222209930b94e2f768a2c9412ab7c82ad0cc90131720deec888d91b8ff74","hash":"663651ab9fc996a2b1f5c749b5e219e29d21ef71d4fa2c54684d0c7b13124c57"},{"id":1793679000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76853.3,"price_at_lock":76853.2,"sigma":0.0014549864017226754,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T04:10:05.722Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T04:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.8138725559278347,"mom3":-0.723666208180407,"rev20":0.004203190356955697,"book":0.6401388991335836},"fable":{"p":0.5280763443576632,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 53%. Last candle +0.12%; three-candle momentum -0.11%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.0σ; order book 58/42 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.15%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: momentum (+0.166 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76856.44,"band":111.82,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T04:10:05.722Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76914.7,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T04:15:05.677Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.22271193675482692,"delta":11,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 53% likely; candle closed up (+0.08%). Brier 0.2227. Largest weight change: bias +0.0238. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0238,"ret1":0.0191,"mom3":-0.0168,"rev20":0.0001,"book":0.015}},"prev_hash":"663651ab9fc996a2b1f5c749b5e219e29d21ef71d4fa2c54684d0c7b13124c57","hash":"d9cddc8a15ca33faeed3b11b168331b9e7df88292680f3aaff3e3a1cda793870"},{"id":1793679300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76914.7,"price_at_lock":76931.6,"sigma":0.0014637714234908448,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T04:15:05.677Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T04:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.5457988124226169,"mom3":-0.1326769081250934,"rev20":0.5910841481674919,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.5545764662442806,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 55%. Last candle +0.08%; three-candle momentum -0.02%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.6σ; order book 83/17 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.15%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.336 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76920.84,"band":112.59,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T04:15:05.677Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76862.3,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T04:20:05.626Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3075550569119937,"delta":-23,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 45% likely; candle closed down (-0.07%). Brier 0.3076. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0556. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0275,"ret1":-0.0152,"mom3":0.0039,"rev20":-0.0164,"book":-0.0556}},"prev_hash":"d9cddc8a15ca33faeed3b11b168331b9e7df88292680f3aaff3e3a1cda793870","hash":"f0aa4b17509a688ed7f294ff416d8044d936af17ff867b733bc924a5d4583e31"},{"id":1793679600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76862.3,"price_at_lock":76862.3,"sigma":0.0014666584200104746,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T04:20:05.626Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T04:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.4645077418601889,"mom3":0.8876122740570693,"rev20":0.17133616377428615,"book":-1.0431853805683549},"fable":{"p":0.35772072723108944,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 36%. Last candle -0.07%; three-candle momentum +0.13%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.2σ; order book 37/63 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.15%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.216 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76846.26,"band":112.73,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T04:20:05.626Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76903.6,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T04:25:05.209Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.4125226642285607,"delta":-65,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 36% likely; candle closed up (+0.05%). Brier 0.4125. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0336. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0323,"ret1":-0.015,"mom3":0.0287,"rev20":0.0055,"book":-0.0336}},"prev_hash":"f0aa4b17509a688ed7f294ff416d8044d936af17ff867b733bc924a5d4583e31","hash":"ece2ec3925a29817c2c256eeed16a778fe3bc1e93dc9bc7516fecdf9d4ddf7ad"},{"id":1793679900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76903.6,"price_at_lock":76913.5,"sigma":0.0014688858727488067,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T04:25:05.209Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T04:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.3658041445477729,"mom3":0.44589921253287274,"rev20":0.5481443325447847,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.4713424598316631,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 47%. Last candle +0.05%; three-candle momentum +0.07%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.5σ; order book 82/18 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.15%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (+0.157 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76900.36,"band":112.96,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T04:25:05.209Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77103.4,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T04:30:05.431Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.27947879477683674,"delta":-12,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 47% likely; candle closed up (+0.26%). Brier 0.2795. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0528. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0266,"ret1":0.0096,"mom3":0.012,"rev20":0.0145,"book":0.0528}},"prev_hash":"ece2ec3925a29817c2c256eeed16a778fe3bc1e93dc9bc7516fecdf9d4ddf7ad","hash":"d31141f9e1d83a4af214f0b42fed50c3223bad18fa05c3ba7e13417abbdd12ff"},{"id":1793680200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77103.4,"price_at_lock":77113.6,"sigma":0.001571013348559947,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T04:30:05.431Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T04:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.6537465010233312,"mom3":1.5621179666305063,"rev20":2,"book":0.6074834034807828},"fable":{"p":0.4223403181813661,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 42%. Last candle +0.26%; three-candle momentum +0.25%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.1σ; order book 58/42 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.16%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.316 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77093.99,"band":121.13,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T04:30:05.431Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77027.1,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T04:35:05.193Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.17837134436153754,"delta":29,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 58% likely; candle closed down (-0.10%). Brier 0.1784. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0422. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.021,"ret1":-0.035,"mom3":-0.0328,"rev20":-0.0422,"book":-0.013}},"prev_hash":"d31141f9e1d83a4af214f0b42fed50c3223bad18fa05c3ba7e13417abbdd12ff","hash":"2ef3801efecdddeb94a98f356421075364ca61741fadb4cc86dd50838e00ddcc"},{"id":1793680500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77027.1,"price_at_lock":77037.2,"sigma":0.0015805326371764348,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T04:35:05.193Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T04:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.6261055309821565,"mom3":1.357644943138007,"rev20":1.3654735273813852,"book":1.3841652133007183},"fable":{"p":0.3935389399078,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 39%. Last candle -0.10%; three-candle momentum +0.21%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.4σ; order book 67/33 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.16%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.319 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77014.14,"band":121.74,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T04:35:05.193Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77070.6,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T04:40:05.552Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.36779501740815507,"delta":-47,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 39% likely; candle closed up (+0.06%). Brier 0.3678. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0419. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0305,"ret1":-0.019,"mom3":0.0414,"rev20":0.0415,"book":0.0419}},"prev_hash":"2ef3801efecdddeb94a98f356421075364ca61741fadb4cc86dd50838e00ddcc","hash":"4a70a45d1d51959ceca844d766acf41dc92d4c9e2446c6fa18949d4d1dc225f0"},{"id":1793680800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77070.6,"price_at_lock":77058.1,"sigma":0.0015210754196494885,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T04:40:05.552Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T04:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.3712743627282173,"mom3":1.428735144376133,"rev20":1.6352496969163428,"book":-0.16100193947499314},"fable":{"p":0.38419965663323535,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 38%. Last candle +0.06%; three-candle momentum +0.22%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.6σ; order book 48/52 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.15%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.277 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77057.02,"band":117.23,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T04:40:05.552Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76975.7,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T04:45:05.473Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.14760937615709593,"delta":41,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 62% likely; candle closed down (-0.12%). Brier 0.1476. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0314. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0191,"ret1":-0.0071,"mom3":-0.0273,"rev20":-0.0314,"book":0.0029}},"prev_hash":"4a70a45d1d51959ceca844d766acf41dc92d4c9e2446c6fa18949d4d1dc225f0","hash":"a684925025436c44a63a02f35d286bb5b745edf7dc9c4c290711b68bfa748a49"},{"id":1793681100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76975.7,"price_at_lock":76975.7,"sigma":0.001465917214094665,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T04:45:05.473Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T04:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.83997822463022,"mom3":-1.1297926253734702,"rev20":0.664418192133271,"book":-0.17923496768803443},"fable":{"p":0.5045883249868645,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 50%. Last candle -0.12%; three-candle momentum -0.17%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.7σ; order book 48/52 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.15%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: momentum (+0.249 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76976.22,"band":112.84,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T04:45:05.473Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77013.3,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T04:50:05.183Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.24543272773932062,"delta":2,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 50% likely; candle closed up (+0.05%). Brier 0.2454. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0278. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0249,"ret1":-0.0208,"mom3":-0.0278,"rev20":0.0165,"book":-0.0046}},"prev_hash":"a684925025436c44a63a02f35d286bb5b745edf7dc9c4c290711b68bfa748a49","hash":"c88eb23b393a8fc1ef09832867f657246f0d8471e4740bd0587314eb30fee47b"},{"id":1793681400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77013.3,"price_at_lock":77013.3,"sigma":0.0011614377044421437,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T04:50:05.183Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T04:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.4205699872238904,"mom3":-0.15337576062693778,"rev20":1.1784641050305456,"book":0.5909682564445119},"fable":{"p":0.4870806640602546,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 49%. Last candle +0.05%; three-candle momentum -0.02%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.2σ; order book 57/43 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: order book (+0.094 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77012.14,"band":89.45,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T04:50:05.183Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76987.9,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T04:55:05.523Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.23724757330137858,"delta":5,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 51% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.2372. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0287. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0242,"ret1":-0.0102,"mom3":0.004,"rev20":-0.0287,"book":-0.0146}},"prev_hash":"c88eb23b393a8fc1ef09832867f657246f0d8471e4740bd0587314eb30fee47b","hash":"1db2c7b42bca5fa9bd38661dd835cdcb30962514f89a96b7cf9d6542b806bf48"},{"id":1793681700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76987.9,"price_at_lock":76975.8,"sigma":0.001159730917474908,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T04:55:05.523Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T05:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.2843876602516917,"mom3":-0.9249437472179691,"rev20":0.8527750023504563,"book":0.49395566294689125},"fable":{"p":0.5222280259890127,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 52%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.11%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.9σ; order book 56/44 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: momentum (+0.226 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76989.88,"band":89.29,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T04:55:05.523Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76942.6,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T05:00:05.649Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.27272211112838096,"delta":-9,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 48% likely; candle closed down (-0.06%). Brier 0.2727. Largest weight change: bias -0.0259. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0259,"ret1":0.0074,"mom3":0.0244,"rev20":-0.0222,"book":-0.013}},"prev_hash":"1db2c7b42bca5fa9bd38661dd835cdcb30962514f89a96b7cf9d6542b806bf48","hash":"f254487086b93cd21fc59e3e159ed5689b4ccfb014846cda14c2e8093306bd9c"},{"id":1793682000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76942.6,"price_at_lock":76941.5,"sigma":0.0011581898163226664,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T05:00:05.649Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T05:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.5080377529905532,"mom3":-0.3710544397715911,"rev20":0.3575548293644723,"book":-0.7269481942649689},"fable":{"p":0.44444453844316445,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 44%. Last candle -0.06%; three-candle momentum -0.04%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.4σ; order book 41/59 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.095 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76937.65,"band":89.11,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T05:00:05.649Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76824.5,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T05:05:05.645Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.19753094775195748,"delta":21,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 56% likely; candle closed down (-0.15%). Brier 0.1975. Largest weight change: bias -0.0220. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.022,"ret1":0.0113,"mom3":0.0085,"rev20":-0.0079,"book":0.016}},"prev_hash":"f254487086b93cd21fc59e3e159ed5689b4ccfb014846cda14c2e8093306bd9c","hash":"02d46fbf90eb64ed7633c9569bb240e14a3dadfa3ddbaa1008ca56fe4283dcc7"},{"id":1793682300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76824.5,"price_at_lock":76811.5,"sigma":0.001203441098971802,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T05:05:05.645Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T05:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.2754346191449428,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-0.8704956972149347,"book":-1.2954973934353158},"fable":{"p":0.5276514027344209,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 53%. Last candle -0.15%; three-candle momentum -0.25%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.9σ; order book 34/66 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: momentum (+0.423 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76827.06,"band":92.45,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T05:05:05.645Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76819.3,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T05:10:06.101Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.27841600280760204,"delta":-11,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 47% likely; candle closed down (-0.01%). Brier 0.2784. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0530. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0262,"ret1":0.0337,"mom3":0.053,"rev20":0.0231,"book":0.034}},"prev_hash":"02d46fbf90eb64ed7633c9569bb240e14a3dadfa3ddbaa1008ca56fe4283dcc7","hash":"0a107ecfb9983b65110433e572af71d32651f5864ba998184b0eefb3c6eec23f"},{"id":1793682600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76819.3,"price_at_lock":76866.5,"sigma":0.0011573313605942903,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T05:10:06.101Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T05:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.05848518657891552,"mom3":-1.8931495392853503,"rev20":-0.9621985529920152,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.6205168471045478,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 62%. Last candle -0.01%; three-candle momentum -0.22%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.0σ; order book 81/19 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.362 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76830.01,"band":88.91,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T05:10:06.101Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76803.7,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T05:15:04.913Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3850411575405687,"delta":-54,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 38% likely; candle closed down (-0.02%). Brier 0.3850. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0622. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0308,"ret1":0.0018,"mom3":0.0589,"rev20":0.0299,"book":-0.0622}},"prev_hash":"0a107ecfb9983b65110433e572af71d32651f5864ba998184b0eefb3c6eec23f","hash":"e537360735b45e25ff85f1b6ab3bc4d131dca3b8e2a19042b7b529818b877e70"},{"id":1793682900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76803.7,"price_at_lock":76803.6,"sigma":0.0011387095561210577,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T05:15:04.913Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T05:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.17833693060488065,"mom3":-1.5857170405493386,"rev20":-1.1866340360433691,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.4244930931255052,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 42%. Last candle -0.02%; three-candle momentum -0.18%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.2σ; order book 25/75 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.238 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76797.1,"band":87.46,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T05:15:04.913Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76825.1,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T05:20:04.925Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3312081998602484,"delta":-32,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 42% likely; candle closed up (+0.03%). Brier 0.3312. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0577. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.029,"ret1":-0.0052,"mom3":-0.0455,"rev20":-0.0341,"book":-0.0577}},"prev_hash":"e537360735b45e25ff85f1b6ab3bc4d131dca3b8e2a19042b7b529818b877e70","hash":"4172255d96f2fbf11eb0e0cd93cebd6591914f6c8155204b716f021433568ec8"},{"id":1793683200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76825.1,"price_at_lock":76825.1,"sigma":0.0011389409868427084,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T05:20:04.925Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T05:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.24464165646460195,"mom3":0.006911422172440427,"rev20":-0.9919151575397369,"book":0.9867050706678269},"fable":{"p":0.47519634224837937,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 48%. Last candle +0.03%; three-candle momentum +0.00%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.0σ; order book 62/38 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.073 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76822.93,"band":87.5,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T05:20:04.925Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76816,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T05:25:04.838Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2258115636862389,"delta":10,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 52% likely; candle closed down (-0.01%). Brier 0.2258. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0236. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0235,"ret1":-0.0058,"mom3":0,"rev20":0.0236,"book":-0.0235}},"prev_hash":"4172255d96f2fbf11eb0e0cd93cebd6591914f6c8155204b716f021433568ec8","hash":"df50a0c02544206d18149f3adf6aefa66b5674a78c25aff4ed1db297bf27ec42"},{"id":1793683500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76816,"price_at_lock":76815.9,"sigma":0.0011392107490018242,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T05:25:04.838Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T05:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.10397625810509148,"mom3":-0.03765100387644472,"rev20":-1.1324126669857113,"book":1.1141529555245515},"fable":{"p":0.46028240359965983,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 46%. Last candle -0.01%; three-candle momentum -0.00%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.1σ; order book 64/36 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.057 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76812.52,"band":87.51,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T05:25:04.838Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76723.9,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T05:30:05.211Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.21185989106348013,"delta":15,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 54% likely; candle closed down (-0.12%). Brier 0.2119. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0261. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0228,"ret1":0.0024,"mom3":0.001,"rev20":0.0261,"book":-0.0257}},"prev_hash":"df50a0c02544206d18149f3adf6aefa66b5674a78c25aff4ed1db297bf27ec42","hash":"97d5ec87980eb988109c2c7b4a6878c8d31f5b4a9cbb0fbf02a68dadfb60a109"},{"id":1793683800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76723.9,"price_at_lock":76706.7,"sigma":0.0010332816203367492,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T05:30:05.211Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T05:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.1603506161353463,"mom3":-1.0053284657267125,"rev20":-2,"book":0.8977412117444977},"fable":{"p":0.47376127332059326,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 47%. Last candle -0.12%; three-candle momentum -0.10%; price below its 20-candle mean by 2.3σ; order book 61/39 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (+0.145 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76721.82,"band":79.28,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T05:30:05.211Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76607.6,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T05:35:04.866Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.22444974409834986,"delta":10,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 53% likely; candle closed down (-0.15%). Brier 0.2244. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0474. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0234,"ret1":0.0275,"mom3":0.024,"rev20":0.0474,"book":-0.0213}},"prev_hash":"97d5ec87980eb988109c2c7b4a6878c8d31f5b4a9cbb0fbf02a68dadfb60a109","hash":"f561c8f5ad027068828011b2b9136cff1132605f9ba63bf562bfc74268e3b765"},{"id":1793684100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76607.6,"price_at_lock":76622.1,"sigma":0.0010752382780167173,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T05:35:04.866Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T05:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.4097572198372064,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-2,"book":0.4594711592012293},"fable":{"p":0.45348295834909436,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 45%. Last candle -0.15%; three-candle momentum -0.28%; price below its 20-candle mean by 3.4σ; order book 56/44 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (+0.241 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76603.77,"band":82.37,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T05:35:04.866Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76656.1,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T05:40:04.894Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2986808768148577,"delta":-19,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 45% likely; candle closed up (+0.06%). Brier 0.2987. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0547. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0276,"ret1":-0.0386,"mom3":-0.0545,"rev20":-0.0547,"book":0.0126}},"prev_hash":"f561c8f5ad027068828011b2b9136cff1132605f9ba63bf562bfc74268e3b765","hash":"3761656772f4f822c3b0893e52a4cb355e6a835aec904d956fa53417739da257"},{"id":1793684400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76656.1,"price_at_lock":76674.9,"sigma":0.0010906462807463916,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T05:40:04.894Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T05:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.5804782598705863,"mom3":-1.908682468225951,"rev20":-2,"book":1.689802282287028},"fable":{"p":0.5319556119474398,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 53%. Last candle +0.06%; three-candle momentum -0.21%; price below its 20-candle mean by 2.6σ; order book 71/29 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: momentum (+0.334 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76658.77,"band":83.6,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T05:40:04.894Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76740,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T05:45:04.908Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.21906554918749557,"delta":12,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 53% likely; candle closed up (+0.11%). Brier 0.2191. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0468. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0237,"ret1":0.0136,"mom3":-0.0445,"rev20":-0.0468,"book":0.0395}},"prev_hash":"3761656772f4f822c3b0893e52a4cb355e6a835aec904d956fa53417739da257","hash":"e8d5d16b990c75e832eb42bf3ffb1b026177d091dc597fbc9e6d1e28054fb08c"},{"id":1793684700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76740,"price_at_lock":76733.4,"sigma":0.0010216349083995795,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T05:45:04.908Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T05:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.0713207502582436,"mom3":0.2072856012633645,"rev20":-1.7002881747520755,"book":-0.8280802787158733},"fable":{"p":0.4554192511731604,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 46%. Last candle +0.11%; three-candle momentum +0.02%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.7σ; order book 40/60 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.133 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76736.5,"band":78.4,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T05:45:04.908Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76697.4,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T05:50:04.855Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.20740669433912215,"delta":17,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 54% likely; candle closed down (-0.06%). Brier 0.2074. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0388. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0225,"ret1":-0.0244,"mom3":-0.0045,"rev20":0.0388,"book":0.0188}},"prev_hash":"e8d5d16b990c75e832eb42bf3ffb1b026177d091dc597fbc9e6d1e28054fb08c","hash":"24a0e6c64d52f9e3ce874ac0bdc90776a2fcebffc1dc544704e7a77829e3d5e8"},{"id":1793685000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76697.4,"price_at_lock":76701.5,"sigma":0.0009894555713014415,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T05:50:04.855Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T05:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.5610370031050296,"mom3":1.1849687619302995,"rev20":-2,"book":-1.0372644868961134},"fable":{"p":0.3707309765838967,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 37%. Last candle -0.06%; three-candle momentum +0.12%; price below its 20-candle mean by 2.2σ; order book 37/63 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.265 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76687.59,"band":75.89,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T05:50:04.855Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76735.3,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T05:55:04.841Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.39597950383105646,"delta":-58,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 37% likely; candle closed up (+0.05%). Brier 0.3960. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0629. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0317,"ret1":-0.0177,"mom3":0.0375,"rev20":-0.0629,"book":-0.0327}},"prev_hash":"24a0e6c64d52f9e3ce874ac0bdc90776a2fcebffc1dc544704e7a77829e3d5e8","hash":"6042580865a780cb1adbea5d7ce59fb9be3b6e5e2903983d949290a73f9fc502"},{"id":1793685300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76735.3,"price_at_lock":76726.2,"sigma":0.0009777555737499315,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T05:55:04.841Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T06:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.5053918891015509,"mom3":1.0570404837083496,"rev20":-1.6164288844712673,"book":-1.1321374922242071},"fable":{"p":0.42048186925732,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 42%. Last candle +0.05%; three-candle momentum +0.10%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.6σ; order book 36/64 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.197 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76729.33,"band":75.03,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T05:55:04.841Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76654,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T06:00:05.275Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.17680500237412997,"delta":29,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 58% likely; candle closed down (-0.11%). Brier 0.1768. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0341. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0208,"ret1":-0.0106,"mom3":-0.022,"rev20":0.0341,"book":0.0238}},"prev_hash":"6042580865a780cb1adbea5d7ce59fb9be3b6e5e2903983d949290a73f9fc502","hash":"2896c5ef2bacac4ec3510df44c25b663ff45ab431f292066f6a5d50614b09da1"},{"id":1793685600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76654,"price_at_lock":76658.6,"sigma":0.000992053200660004,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T06:00:05.275Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T06:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.0679732814041456,"mom3":-1.1294331425193795,"rev20":-2,"book":-1.6044076900360391},"fable":{"p":0.5125466495117506,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 51%. Last candle -0.11%; three-candle momentum -0.11%; price below its 20-candle mean by 2.5σ; order book 30/70 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: momentum (+0.235 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76654.95,"band":76.04,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T06:00:05.275Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76606.1,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T06:05:04.819Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.26270406792572126,"delta":-5,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 49% likely; candle closed down (-0.06%). Brier 0.2627. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0513. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0254,"ret1":0.0274,"mom3":0.0292,"rev20":0.0513,"book":0.0411}},"prev_hash":"2896c5ef2bacac4ec3510df44c25b663ff45ab431f292066f6a5d50614b09da1","hash":"84327c0af2c361bdf2b7ab6eaa8882eb8321efe3f28bd3c9865d14ffe96e54a4"},{"id":1793685900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76606.1,"price_at_lock":76606.1,"sigma":0.0009849718909388456,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T06:05:04.819Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T06:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.6344199834069078,"mom3":-1.2083821246010482,"rev20":-2,"book":-1.4795392804514964},"fable":{"p":0.45496215711017995,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 45%. Last candle -0.06%; three-candle momentum -0.12%; price below its 20-candle mean by 3.0σ; order book 32/68 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (+0.217 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76602.7,"band":75.45,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T06:05:04.819Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76527.7,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T06:10:04.863Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.20699056440234806,"delta":17,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 55% likely; candle closed down (-0.10%). Brier 0.2070. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0455. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0225,"ret1":0.0144,"mom3":0.0277,"rev20":0.0455,"book":0.0336}},"prev_hash":"84327c0af2c361bdf2b7ab6eaa8882eb8321efe3f28bd3c9865d14ffe96e54a4","hash":"be5fc4e2bc4b06b33622fcc01b77cb0b440eabfd0c567bd96bf018521c90a3dc"},{"id":1793686200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76527.7,"price_at_lock":76519.6,"sigma":0.0007630559537433684,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T06:10:04.863Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T06:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.3412085840047336,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-2,"book":-0.7684964022937277},"fable":{"p":0.4538761870305853,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 45%. Last candle -0.10%; three-candle momentum -0.27%; price below its 20-candle mean by 4.7σ; order book 40/60 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (+0.303 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76525.01,"band":58.39,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T06:10:04.863Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76443.6,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T06:15:04.921Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.20600359315342284,"delta":18,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 55% likely; candle closed down (-0.11%). Brier 0.2060. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0455. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0224,"ret1":0.0304,"mom3":0.0455,"rev20":0.0454,"book":0.0173}},"prev_hash":"be5fc4e2bc4b06b33622fcc01b77cb0b440eabfd0c567bd96bf018521c90a3dc","hash":"8907c14a62c777e99c05460d34b7a5ee92086b48987bb490f80a12f369365a5f"},{"id":1793686500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76443.6,"price_at_lock":76443.7,"sigma":0.0007678222529976836,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T06:15:04.921Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T06:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.4312537583133789,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-2,"book":-0.09859334266546338},"fable":{"p":0.4132928851872666,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 41%. Last candle -0.11%; three-candle momentum -0.27%; price below its 20-candle mean by 5.6σ; order book 49/51 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (+0.212 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76438.51,"band":58.7,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T06:15:04.921Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76517,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T06:20:04.817Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3442252385718819,"delta":-38,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 41% likely; candle closed up (+0.10%). Brier 0.3442. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0587. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0297,"ret1":-0.042,"mom3":-0.0586,"rev20":-0.0587,"book":-0.003}},"prev_hash":"8907c14a62c777e99c05460d34b7a5ee92086b48987bb490f80a12f369365a5f","hash":"1f328a65d467cb446993682a46db49b69e8acd16bb63fd1fbe54c865bda12f2d"},{"id":1793686800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76517,"price_at_lock":76517.1,"sigma":0.0007964496846908614,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T06:20:04.817Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T06:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.2055815248044373,"mom3":-1.4592016013008773,"rev20":-2,"book":-1.5552604798539704},"fable":{"p":0.42136784599171595,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 42%. Last candle +0.10%; three-candle momentum -0.12%; price below its 20-candle mean by 3.7σ; order book 31/69 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (+0.240 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76512.21,"band":60.94,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T06:20:04.817Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76575,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T06:25:04.835Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.33481516965226654,"delta":-34,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 42% likely; candle closed up (+0.08%). Brier 0.3348. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0579. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0292,"ret1":0.0349,"mom3":-0.0421,"rev20":-0.0579,"book":-0.0451}},"prev_hash":"1f328a65d467cb446993682a46db49b69e8acd16bb63fd1fbe54c865bda12f2d","hash":"fe0e4e52a763b1a6f16061b5822d9657571cff07ceb950d50c4365fb88830c93"},{"id":1793687100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76575,"price_at_lock":76582.2,"sigma":0.0008055967955660938,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T06:25:04.835Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T06:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.940919196845053,"mom3":0.7686699267589554,"rev20":-2,"book":0.8807606494184281},"fable":{"p":0.4417865370959749,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 44%. Last candle +0.08%; three-candle momentum +0.06%; price below its 20-candle mean by 2.4σ; order book 61/39 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.159 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76571.41,"band":61.69,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T06:25:04.835Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76715.1,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T06:30:04.912Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3116022701673035,"delta":-25,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 44% likely; candle closed up (+0.18%). Brier 0.3116. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0558. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0282,"ret1":0.0262,"mom3":0.0217,"rev20":-0.0558,"book":0.0245}},"prev_hash":"fe0e4e52a763b1a6f16061b5822d9657571cff07ceb950d50c4365fb88830c93","hash":"3514b8cbb78410563ee0c3710e6fe75669056f16473e5846be240c06b10d4683"},{"id":1793687400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76715.1,"price_at_lock":76744.5,"sigma":0.0009137159758562301,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T06:30:04.912Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T06:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":2,"mom3":2,"rev20":0.05999260661356865,"book":0.6461255631224985},"fable":{"p":0.39562040831700057,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 40%. Last candle +0.18%; three-candle momentum +0.35%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.1σ; order book 58/42 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.370 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76707.78,"band":70.1,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T06:30:04.912Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76790.3,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T06:35:04.843Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3652746908429092,"delta":-46,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 40% likely; candle closed up (+0.10%). Brier 0.3653. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0606. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0305,"ret1":0.0604,"mom3":0.0606,"rev20":0.0019,"book":0.0194}},"prev_hash":"3514b8cbb78410563ee0c3710e6fe75669056f16473e5846be240c06b10d4683","hash":"b0334e4ab19ba899b64be8a48d5bce683d62a0432d0451ce01d3fb9748885d97"},{"id":1793687700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76790.3,"price_at_lock":76791,"sigma":0.0009479173006339092,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T06:35:04.843Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T06:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.0341095178745636,"mom3":2,"rev20":1.228024247605537,"book":0.39811335648209045},"fable":{"p":0.40019673986733656,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 40%. Last candle +0.10%; three-candle momentum +0.36%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.2σ; order book 55/45 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.249 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76783.04,"band":72.79,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T06:35:04.843Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76827.1,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T06:40:04.860Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3597639508657716,"delta":-44,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 40% likely; candle closed up (+0.05%). Brier 0.3598. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0601. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0302,"ret1":0.0309,"mom3":0.0601,"rev20":0.0369,"book":0.0118}},"prev_hash":"b0334e4ab19ba899b64be8a48d5bce683d62a0432d0451ce01d3fb9748885d97","hash":"3b3d33c51d7e290f701d53016abf1f6484cffcf45ee4b2d2c4b1be49bf8957bb"},{"id":1793688000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76827.1,"price_at_lock":76833.2,"sigma":0.0009505469256310385,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T06:40:04.860Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T06:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.5041594277332077,"mom3":2,"rev20":1.8087189930510035,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.48884821278149,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 49%. Last candle +0.05%; three-candle momentum +0.33%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.8σ; order book 76/24 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: order book (+0.304 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76826.29,"band":73.03,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T06:40:04.860Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76666,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T06:45:05.088Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.23897257513965692,"delta":4,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 51% likely; candle closed down (-0.21%). Brier 0.2390. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0490. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0243,"ret1":-0.0125,"mom3":-0.0488,"rev20":-0.0442,"book":-0.049}},"prev_hash":"3b3d33c51d7e290f701d53016abf1f6484cffcf45ee4b2d2c4b1be49bf8957bb","hash":"dc4b3396227a25fc3f7b1b7fe643f976e9ff38a293ef28711dd33846b543e2a0"},{"id":1793688300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76666,"price_at_lock":76665.9,"sigma":0.0010003046649141702,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T06:45:05.088Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T06:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-2,"mom3":-0.6372446795968446,"rev20":-0.2778622259136622,"book":-0.4859314324240311},"fable":{"p":0.3902783221087666,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 39%. Last candle -0.21%; three-candle momentum -0.06%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.3σ; order book 44/56 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: last candle (-0.283 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76657.59,"band":76.69,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T06:45:05.088Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76536.3,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T06:50:04.864Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.1523171687080342,"delta":39,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 61% likely; candle closed down (-0.17%). Brier 0.1523. Largest weight change: last-candle +0.0389. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0193,"ret1":0.0389,"mom3":0.0125,"rev20":0.0055,"book":0.0094}},"prev_hash":"dc4b3396227a25fc3f7b1b7fe643f976e9ff38a293ef28711dd33846b543e2a0","hash":"8e31d3e0e6fa559aed25a209895e227ca49feced10083953d653edca375c58aa"},{"id":1793688600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76536.3,"price_at_lock":76544,"sigma":0.00105839469089407,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T06:50:04.864Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T06:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.5984148974789527,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-1.6865582996781088,"book":0.07792475722194121},"fable":{"p":0.46348614550003303,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 46%. Last candle -0.17%; three-candle momentum -0.33%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.7σ; order book 51/49 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: last candle (-0.288 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76533.34,"band":81.01,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T06:50:04.864Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76617.2,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T06:55:04.845Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2878471160704118,"delta":-15,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 46% likely; candle closed up (+0.11%). Brier 0.2878. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0536. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0271,"ret1":-0.0431,"mom3":-0.0536,"rev20":-0.0451,"book":0.002}},"prev_hash":"8e31d3e0e6fa559aed25a209895e227ca49feced10083953d653edca375c58aa","hash":"b485b4a1af40e882a461231fd286e2dd7103fb38de1f4e820da89a98655d4c2e"},{"id":1793688900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76617.2,"price_at_lock":76608.2,"sigma":0.0010923427073244608,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T06:55:04.845Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T07:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.9676585643933245,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-0.556940832171537,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.63250076341863,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 63%. Last candle +0.11%; three-candle momentum -0.27%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.6σ; order book 80/20 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: momentum (+0.308 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76628.29,"band":83.69,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T06:55:04.845Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76582.6,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T07:00:05.359Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.4000572157251498,"delta":-60,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 37% likely; candle closed down (-0.05%). Brier 0.4001. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0634. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0314,"ret1":-0.0307,"mom3":0.0634,"rev20":0.0178,"book":-0.0634}},"prev_hash":"b485b4a1af40e882a461231fd286e2dd7103fb38de1f4e820da89a98655d4c2e","hash":"f1752c06ec91db90344a68cd844b2bda49f7a65d3588be048fb3d7024f33f0a7"},{"id":1793689200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76582.6,"price_at_lock":76580.6,"sigma":0.0010905787566334998,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T07:00:05.359Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T07:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.4140881366842002,"mom3":-0.9961085194229758,"rev20":-0.826786548800144,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.4526303650397104,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 45%. Last candle -0.05%; three-candle momentum -0.11%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.8σ; order book 22/78 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.104 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76578.64,"band":83.52,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T07:00:05.359Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76499.8,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T07:05:04.918Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.20487424735598148,"delta":18,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 55% likely; candle closed down (-0.11%). Brier 0.2049. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0452. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0224,"ret1":0.0093,"mom3":0.0226,"rev20":0.0188,"book":0.0452}},"prev_hash":"f1752c06ec91db90344a68cd844b2bda49f7a65d3588be048fb3d7024f33f0a7","hash":"b448eb0acc0927f8155245a5b3100f36f8c1c34dfed312322b67cbad8607a886"},{"id":1793689500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76499.8,"price_at_lock":76499.2,"sigma":0.0011088874753158306,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T07:05:04.918Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T07:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.9750182660729633,"mom3":-0.42904848624392017,"rev20":-1.601600926155709,"book":-1.6392871025151412},"fable":{"p":0.41799470983595216,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 42%. Last candle -0.11%; three-candle momentum -0.05%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.6σ; order book 30/70 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.171 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76492.84,"band":84.83,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T07:05:04.918Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76563.3,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T07:10:04.824Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.33873015777893745,"delta":-35,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 42% likely; candle closed up (+0.08%). Brier 0.3387. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0478. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0294,"ret1":-0.0285,"mom3":-0.0124,"rev20":-0.0465,"book":-0.0478}},"prev_hash":"b448eb0acc0927f8155245a5b3100f36f8c1c34dfed312322b67cbad8607a886","hash":"bd921d8578f3177c3c62991e4e44b774f19c5fd426244e6308c6f6631387ac9f"},{"id":1793689800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76563.3,"price_at_lock":76549.1,"sigma":0.0011061786745740344,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T07:10:04.824Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T07:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.7503919110608002,"mom3":-0.6352624175985783,"rev20":-0.7618199667925475,"book":-0.5623998729827948},"fable":{"p":0.4937209582617141,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 49%. Last candle +0.08%; three-candle momentum -0.07%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.8σ; order book 43/57 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.117 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76562.77,"band":84.69,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T07:10:04.824Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76581.4,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T07:15:04.878Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.256318468103437,"delta":-3,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 49% likely; candle closed up (+0.02%). Brier 0.2563. Largest weight change: bias +0.0255. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0255,"ret1":0.0189,"mom3":-0.016,"rev20":-0.0191,"book":-0.0143}},"prev_hash":"bd921d8578f3177c3c62991e4e44b774f19c5fd426244e6308c6f6631387ac9f","hash":"6de2574d929b024a7735e812c9c5b7b28f43e7b0557aaa3266101d132a2f6631"},{"id":1793690100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76581.4,"price_at_lock":76590.9,"sigma":0.001059298662606407,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T07:15:04.878Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T07:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.22317189798508102,"mom3":-0.013888737252839352,"rev20":-0.556421923287272,"book":-1.3378411079314076},"fable":{"p":0.46744783562288805,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 47%. Last candle +0.02%; three-candle momentum -0.00%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.6σ; order book 33/67 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.096 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76578.76,"band":81.12,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T07:15:04.878Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76713,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T07:20:04.838Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2836118077827465,"delta":-13,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 47% likely; candle closed up (+0.17%). Brier 0.2836. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0357. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0268,"ret1":0.0058,"mom3":-0.0003,"rev20":-0.0146,"book":-0.0357}},"prev_hash":"6de2574d929b024a7735e812c9c5b7b28f43e7b0557aaa3266101d132a2f6631","hash":"111181db70ff73b3394938c0bf856653e3ac9d45d1a4653978f896c854340903"},{"id":1793690400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76713,"price_at_lock":76713.5,"sigma":0.001117396140621642,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T07:20:04.838Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T07:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.5378905232808249,"mom3":2,"rev20":0.9762289364381715,"book":0.5296964814625736},"fable":{"p":0.40528930521672996,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 41%. Last candle +0.17%; three-candle momentum +0.28%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.0σ; order book 57/43 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.194 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76704.88,"band":85.72,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T07:20:04.838Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76743.2,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T07:25:04.938Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3536808104895999,"delta":-41,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 41% likely; candle closed up (+0.04%). Brier 0.3537. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0596. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0299,"ret1":0.0456,"mom3":0.0596,"rev20":0.0292,"book":0.0158}},"prev_hash":"111181db70ff73b3394938c0bf856653e3ac9d45d1a4653978f896c854340903","hash":"e13d411439f51ab4c5ac6038d2659b1d78ce05a2a0a3e1165d5698ad4a0eb8d6"},{"id":1793690700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76743.2,"price_at_lock":76754.3,"sigma":0.001094460027371757,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T07:25:04.938Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T07:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.35969804006140643,"mom3":2,"rev20":1.3548671515498834,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.4129660170076583,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 41%. Last candle +0.04%; three-candle momentum +0.23%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.4σ; order book 84/16 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.214 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76735.89,"band":83.99,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T07:25:04.938Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76890.6,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T07:30:04.932Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.34460889718785287,"delta":-38,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 41% likely; candle closed up (+0.19%). Brier 0.3446. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0587. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0295,"ret1":0.0104,"mom3":0.0587,"rev20":0.0399,"book":0.0587}},"prev_hash":"e13d411439f51ab4c5ac6038d2659b1d78ce05a2a0a3e1165d5698ad4a0eb8d6","hash":"0a45e11bc92ce925e61c28354743f587108d42d728767037815d4a74f1bf1c04"},{"id":1793691000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76890.6,"price_at_lock":76883.7,"sigma":0.001162281778216778,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T07:30:04.932Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T07:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.652517815075125,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.45507337656390473,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 46%. Last candle +0.19%; three-candle momentum +0.40%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.8σ; order book 19/81 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: last candle (+0.277 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76886.58,"band":89.37,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T07:30:04.932Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76868.4,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T07:35:04.828Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.20709177805727344,"delta":17,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 54% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.2071. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0455. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0226,"ret1":-0.0378,"mom3":-0.0455,"rev20":-0.0454,"book":0.0454}},"prev_hash":"0a45e11bc92ce925e61c28354743f587108d42d728767037815d4a74f1bf1c04","hash":"44fcda9a0e6eefa9d0f805662d44c55c4227f783cbcb2829744d097c6ec706dd"},{"id":1793691300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76868.4,"price_at_lock":76850.9,"sigma":0.0011624228418676348,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T07:35:04.828Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T07:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.24837940892641763,"mom3":1.7426056165339925,"rev20":2,"book":-0.010601404286575801},"fable":{"p":0.3673404545261594,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 37%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum +0.20%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.5σ; order book 50/50 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.326 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76856.55,"band":89.35,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T07:35:04.828Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76817.4,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T07:40:04.909Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.13493900953148535,"delta":46,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 63% likely; candle closed down (-0.07%). Brier 0.1349. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0366. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0182,"ret1":0.0044,"mom3":-0.032,"rev20":-0.0366,"book":0.0001}},"prev_hash":"44fcda9a0e6eefa9d0f805662d44c55c4227f783cbcb2829744d097c6ec706dd","hash":"d3a23679389bb860699015bb9bf2c0f5db424af08c940c922d84f33f04055c73"},{"id":1793691600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76817.4,"price_at_lock":76812.2,"sigma":0.001145975796202874,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T07:40:04.909Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T07:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.5789577736358266,"mom3":0.8451294118546605,"rev20":1.8594960755720535,"book":-0.7401822914516835},"fable":{"p":0.32203787786810145,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 32%. Last candle -0.07%; three-candle momentum +0.10%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.9σ; order book 41/59 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.371 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76801.73,"band":88.03,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T07:40:04.909Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76843.2,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T07:45:04.959Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.4596326390455873,"delta":-84,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 32% likely; candle closed up (+0.03%). Brier 0.4596. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0632. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0341,"ret1":-0.0198,"mom3":0.0287,"rev20":0.0632,"book":-0.0252}},"prev_hash":"d3a23679389bb860699015bb9bf2c0f5db424af08c940c922d84f33f04055c73","hash":"4611c46e3688996368c1c30f933dde440dd4525c32429a46a74391ce98ea8b6b"},{"id":1793691900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76843.2,"price_at_lock":76827.7,"sigma":0.0011343616343111387,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T07:45:04.959Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T07:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.29607965946777476,"mom3":-0.5433294541647097,"rev20":2,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.45917534326531556,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 46%. Last candle +0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.06%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.0σ; order book 75/25 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.273 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76839.64,"band":87.17,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T07:45:04.959Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76885,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T07:50:04.878Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2924913093321892,"delta":-17,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 46% likely; candle closed up (+0.05%). Brier 0.2925. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0542. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0272,"ret1":0.0079,"mom3":-0.0147,"rev20":0.0542,"book":0.054}},"prev_hash":"4611c46e3688996368c1c30f933dde440dd4525c32429a46a74391ce98ea8b6b","hash":"bfb9e53c6d078819d68ab7a3cdb97c81efb09095ef1cf363051289573710d5fb"},{"id":1793692200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76885,"price_at_lock":76884.9,"sigma":0.0011039653222169553,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T07:50:04.878Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T07:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.4927372646190771,"mom3":0.19597958336138063,"rev20":2,"book":-1.318027089014425},"fable":{"p":0.400055538748388,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 40%. Last candle +0.05%; three-candle momentum +0.02%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.4σ; order book 34/66 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.194 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76876.52,"band":84.88,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T07:50:04.878Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76858.5,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T07:55:04.851Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.16004443408326297,"delta":36,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 60% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.1600. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0399. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0199,"ret1":-0.01,"mom3":-0.0039,"rev20":-0.0399,"book":0.0262}},"prev_hash":"bfb9e53c6d078819d68ab7a3cdb97c81efb09095ef1cf363051289573710d5fb","hash":"f009da554ea04a918893108dff343b8b6c10f8b4e9f8a26f2a37b66729a64e44"},{"id":1793692500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76858.5,"price_at_lock":76858.5,"sigma":0.0010701669642743422,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T07:55:04.851Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T08:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.32207181071659285,"mom3":0.5000674337892799,"rev20":1.8758228352696265,"book":1.5885616233346347},"fable":{"p":0.4671282979114608,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 47%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum +0.05%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.9σ; order book 70/30 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (+0.276 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76855.8,"band":82.25,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T07:55:04.851Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76827.8,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T08:00:05.120Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.21820884670965848,"delta":13,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 53% likely; candle closed down (-0.04%). Brier 0.2182. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0437. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0232,"ret1":0.0074,"mom3":-0.0116,"rev20":-0.0437,"book":-0.0373}},"prev_hash":"f009da554ea04a918893108dff343b8b6c10f8b4e9f8a26f2a37b66729a64e44","hash":"c1a6c98248e2cffa81daf9aa484e43e7309ffd58923751ccac4c42fcd4da0799"},{"id":1793692800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76827.8,"price_at_lock":76830.3,"sigma":0.0010674247318422688,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T08:00:05.120Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T08:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.37420467602124663,"mom3":-0.18749901406171735,"rev20":1.3156209372278458,"book":-1.4107213629665358},"fable":{"p":0.35742599283241944,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 36%. Last candle -0.04%; three-candle momentum -0.02%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.3σ; order book 32/68 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.218 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76816.11,"band":82.01,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T08:00:05.120Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76692.2,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T08:05:04.891Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.12775334035224076,"delta":49,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 64% likely; candle closed down (-0.18%). Brier 0.1278. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0251. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0177,"ret1":0.0066,"mom3":0.0034,"rev20":-0.0233,"book":0.0251}},"prev_hash":"c1a6c98248e2cffa81daf9aa484e43e7309ffd58923751ccac4c42fcd4da0799","hash":"d56ae9a196420dbe9616a5d4b38264238d5032539adc1d1b1734a4f9f532a37f"},{"id":1793693100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76692.2,"price_at_lock":76678.3,"sigma":0.001140963367995317,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T08:05:04.891Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T08:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.5469261865078503,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-0.38518889703653425,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.37818628656968606,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 38%. Last candle -0.18%; three-candle momentum -0.25%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.4σ; order book 11/89 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.323 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76681.54,"band":87.5,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T08:05:04.891Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76741.1,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T08:10:04.945Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3866522942099965,"delta":-55,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 38% likely; candle closed up (+0.06%). Brier 0.3867. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0623. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0313,"ret1":-0.0482,"mom3":-0.0621,"rev20":-0.0118,"book":-0.0623}},"prev_hash":"d56ae9a196420dbe9616a5d4b38264238d5032539adc1d1b1734a4f9f532a37f","hash":"cb451a3ce97df80c0417196fded46b27dff65ad0ad84d85838e947bfb0349402"},{"id":1793693400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76741.1,"price_at_lock":76729.6,"sigma":0.0010772175792939406,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T08:10:04.945Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T08:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.5919080287186234,"mom3":-1.417362409638793,"rev20":0.1679332028426957,"book":0.5265383171745938},"fable":{"p":0.525222110688705,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 53%. Last candle +0.06%; three-candle momentum -0.15%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.2σ; order book 57/43 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: momentum (+0.165 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76743.19,"band":82.67,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T08:10:04.945Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76821.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T08:15:04.893Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.22541404417888833,"delta":10,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 53% likely; candle closed up (+0.10%). Brier 0.2254. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0335. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0239,"ret1":0.014,"mom3":-0.0335,"rev20":0.0042,"book":0.0124}},"prev_hash":"cb451a3ce97df80c0417196fded46b27dff65ad0ad84d85838e947bfb0349402","hash":"56267487fc50b7b2ba997e64d5b1952eee98e211dac4209ed12cc361e7116fc7"},{"id":1793693700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76821.5,"price_at_lock":76821.5,"sigma":0.001080326417377852,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T08:15:04.893Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T08:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.9697795741714301,"mom3":-0.073768338572907,"rev20":1.1185621871352764,"book":1.4915175831404004},"fable":{"p":0.4854888619010187,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 49%. Last candle +0.10%; three-candle momentum -0.01%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.1σ; order book 69/31 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.220 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76820.3,"band":82.99,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T08:15:04.893Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76738.5,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T08:20:05.159Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2356994350299464,"delta":6,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 51% likely; candle closed down (-0.11%). Brier 0.2357. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0363. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0242,"ret1":-0.0236,"mom3":0.0019,"rev20":-0.027,"book":-0.0363}},"prev_hash":"56267487fc50b7b2ba997e64d5b1952eee98e211dac4209ed12cc361e7116fc7","hash":"115ac4beec91396242af070a0124ce9078a564ea6c373d4745164df02e2fe818"},{"id":1793694000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76738.5,"price_at_lock":76726.9,"sigma":0.0011005298232064375,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T08:20:05.159Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T08:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.9817332349195729,"mom3":0.5496130233413778,"rev20":0.1675796990141625,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.385767679982071,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 39%. Last candle -0.11%; three-candle momentum +0.06%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.2σ; order book 9/91 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.150 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76728.85,"band":84.45,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T08:20:05.159Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76684.2,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T08:25:04.938Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.14881670291874954,"delta":40,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 61% likely; candle closed down (-0.07%). Brier 0.1488. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0385. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0192,"ret1":0.0189,"mom3":-0.0105,"rev20":-0.003,"book":0.0385}},"prev_hash":"115ac4beec91396242af070a0124ce9078a564ea6c373d4745164df02e2fe818","hash":"a24af0c77d7858876b97f07672c39ca9ca45f61a0b14821242f32925573dd496"},{"id":1793694300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76684.2,"price_at_lock":76692.3,"sigma":0.0010096799186274988,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T08:25:04.938Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T08:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.7008140580607399,"mom3":-0.7332483076153884,"rev20":-0.5300256136240492,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.5631067009067565,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 56%. Last candle -0.07%; three-candle momentum -0.07%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.5σ; order book 77/23 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.227 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76689.09,"band":77.43,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T08:25:04.938Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76659.9,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T08:30:05.018Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3170891566060913,"delta":-27,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 44% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.3171. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0564. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.028,"ret1":0.0196,"mom3":0.0208,"rev20":0.0151,"book":-0.0564}},"prev_hash":"a24af0c77d7858876b97f07672c39ca9ca45f61a0b14821242f32925573dd496","hash":"c7a4c06a38fefd33367de5c9788f313b6d3475b777cc1d17c85359f969c7569c"},{"id":1793694600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76659.9,"price_at_lock":76638.8,"sigma":0.000935385094249229,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T08:30:05.018Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T08:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.33877389503264976,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-0.996747470662486,"book":-0.34137258480450694},"fable":{"p":0.5631585070593825,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 56%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.21%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.0σ; order book 46/54 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: momentum (+0.275 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76664.43,"band":71.71,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T08:30:05.018Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76590.3,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T08:35:04.975Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3171475040733526,"delta":-27,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 44% likely; candle closed down (-0.09%). Brier 0.3171. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0565. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.028,"ret1":0.0094,"mom3":0.0565,"rev20":0.0283,"book":0.0096}},"prev_hash":"c7a4c06a38fefd33367de5c9788f313b6d3475b777cc1d17c85359f969c7569c","hash":"0a1ac7409ec50972b29f79be59cb067039ba1c18b40cdb9b2b8a03d640d76aba"},{"id":1793694900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76590.3,"price_at_lock":76597.5,"sigma":0.0009309046136934082,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T08:35:04.975Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T08:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.9752945749690378,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-1.9571347123402636,"book":-0.7679540660091209},"fable":{"p":0.5378734594756537,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 54%. Last candle -0.09%; three-candle momentum -0.19%; price below its 20-candle mean by 2.0σ; order book 40/60 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.359 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76593,"band":71.3,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T08:35:04.975Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76536.7,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T08:40:04.917Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.28930785840830764,"delta":-16,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 46% likely; candle closed down (-0.07%). Brier 0.2893. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0539. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0267,"ret1":0.0261,"mom3":0.0539,"rev20":0.0528,"book":0.0206}},"prev_hash":"0a1ac7409ec50972b29f79be59cb067039ba1c18b40cdb9b2b8a03d640d76aba","hash":"2febb7494e5fb7d7aec0bd127a995d7aa8694f0495ab5ba9ebd4ba5ee8b56fc6"},{"id":1793695200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76536.7,"price_at_lock":76542,"sigma":0.0009382405129848444,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T08:40:04.917Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T08:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.7458935253441906,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-2,"book":1.1189734870398758},"fable":{"p":0.5189046552977536,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 52%. Last candle -0.07%; three-candle momentum -0.19%; price below its 20-candle mean by 2.7σ; order book 64/36 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.261 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76538.06,"band":71.81,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T08:40:04.917Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76544.8,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T08:45:04.990Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.23145273069417324,"delta":7,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 52% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.2315. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0481. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0243,"ret1":-0.0181,"mom3":-0.0481,"rev20":-0.048,"book":0.0268}},"prev_hash":"2febb7494e5fb7d7aec0bd127a995d7aa8694f0495ab5ba9ebd4ba5ee8b56fc6","hash":"6240b1fdb29a7df3c846b299137e3cb35392f179912a2b633388a96b2a01870a"},{"id":1793695500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76544.8,"price_at_lock":76543.1,"sigma":0.0009068575582833784,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T08:45:04.990Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T08:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.11670143837238985,"mom3":-1.6561610456137068,"rev20":-2,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.6266426079725887,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 63%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum -0.15%; price below its 20-candle mean by 2.7σ; order book 80/20 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.357 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76553.59,"band":69.42,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T08:45:04.990Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76543.2,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T08:50:04.847Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3926809581266876,"delta":-57,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 37% likely; candle closed down (-0.00%). Brier 0.3927. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0628. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0311,"ret1":-0.0038,"mom3":0.052,"rev20":0.0628,"book":-0.0628}},"prev_hash":"6240b1fdb29a7df3c846b299137e3cb35392f179912a2b633388a96b2a01870a","hash":"49aab8018c4fc8ea1c17b344bfebbb25ddae6957ad818bb10c10ef316e0503df"},{"id":1793695800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76543.2,"price_at_lock":76535.9,"sigma":0.0008880814386778392,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T08:50:04.847Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T08:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.023537021108120053,"mom3":-0.6923900299997315,"rev20":-2,"book":-0.5348353170375326},"fable":{"p":0.4949075860340716,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 49%. Last candle -0.00%; three-candle momentum -0.06%; price below its 20-candle mean by 2.7σ; order book 43/57 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.231 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76542.85,"band":67.98,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T08:50:04.847Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76593.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T08:55:04.868Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2551183466459288,"delta":-2,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 49% likely; candle closed up (+0.07%). Brier 0.2551. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0504. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0255,"ret1":-0.0007,"mom3":-0.0175,"rev20":-0.0504,"book":-0.0136}},"prev_hash":"49aab8018c4fc8ea1c17b344bfebbb25ddae6957ad818bb10c10ef316e0503df","hash":"3d5d1146323eeae0cdba4e48a5905fe357f9cf4d9468c3c78f29113aaec066dd"},{"id":1793696100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76593.5,"price_at_lock":76603.5,"sigma":0.0008986542487585502,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T08:55:04.868Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T09:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.7312548146198737,"mom3":0.8257614505145785,"rev20":-1.9745211795992152,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.5610978610995148,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 56%. Last candle +0.07%; three-candle momentum +0.07%; price below its 20-candle mean by 2.0σ; order book 79/21 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.328 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76597.71,"band":68.83,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T08:55:04.868Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76636.9,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T09:00:05.326Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.19263508753142083,"delta":23,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 56% likely; candle closed up (+0.06%). Brier 0.1926. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0439. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0222,"ret1":0.0159,"mom3":0.0182,"rev20":-0.0432,"book":0.0439}},"prev_hash":"3d5d1146323eeae0cdba4e48a5905fe357f9cf4d9468c3c78f29113aaec066dd","hash":"043dd6d0d160eb70af563ae860c61c1d19932c6bc210b4d8077298a896442d5f"},{"id":1793696400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76636.9,"price_at_lock":76622.6,"sigma":0.0008207447522678679,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T09:00:05.326Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T09:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.6903823812279796,"mom3":1.4655837489581434,"rev20":-1.4124456477357,"book":-1.8929649825077735},"fable":{"p":0.5030608098989227,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 50%. Last candle +0.06%; three-candle momentum +0.12%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.4σ; order book 26/74 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.296 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76637.09,"band":62.9,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T09:00:05.326Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76699.9,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T09:05:04.837Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2469485586583147,"delta":1,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 50% likely; candle closed up (+0.08%). Brier 0.2469. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0471. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.025,"ret1":0.017,"mom3":0.0364,"rev20":-0.0349,"book":-0.0471}},"prev_hash":"043dd6d0d160eb70af563ae860c61c1d19932c6bc210b4d8077298a896442d5f","hash":"daa8c0e4a076e90b745c3b5e62ddb1a3aa0c90909b5df6b78ba638a6b01ec26a"},{"id":1793696700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76699.9,"price_at_lock":76713.1,"sigma":0.0008374452401309755,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T09:05:04.837Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T09:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.9816263369984245,"mom3":2,"rev20":-0.370105898380337,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.5430455866280052,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 54%. Last candle +0.08%; three-candle momentum +0.20%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.4σ; order book 76/24 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: last candle (+0.150 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76702.66,"band":64.23,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T09:05:04.837Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76770.2,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T09:10:05.078Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.20880733590014391,"delta":16,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 54% likely; candle closed up (+0.09%). Brier 0.2088. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0457. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.023,"ret1":0.0223,"mom3":0.0457,"rev20":-0.0082,"book":0.0457}},"prev_hash":"daa8c0e4a076e90b745c3b5e62ddb1a3aa0c90909b5df6b78ba638a6b01ec26a","hash":"2970f0b22a760c666511c404a033eee8a03f009f073713b00abf61e3aff0624f"},{"id":1793697000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76770.2,"price_at_lock":76760.1,"sigma":0.0007440072572291342,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T09:10:05.078Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T09:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.2319224098148163,"mom3":2,"rev20":0.9204867659140911,"book":-1.2689912792151448},"fable":{"p":0.4649673691376159,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 46%. Last candle +0.09%; three-candle momentum +0.23%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.9σ; order book 34/66 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.232 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76768.2,"band":57.12,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T09:10:05.078Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76774.1,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T09:15:04.863Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2862599160875241,"delta":-15,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 46% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.2863. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0534. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0269,"ret1":0.0328,"mom3":0.0534,"rev20":0.0249,"book":-0.034}},"prev_hash":"2970f0b22a760c666511c404a033eee8a03f009f073713b00abf61e3aff0624f","hash":"19d6e831b04bb490a4a9c7ceecc361415e60fbe5d20f83b24dc03fcadcd90374"},{"id":1793697300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76774.1,"price_at_lock":76780.9,"sigma":0.0007428798271415485,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T09:15:04.863Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T09:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.06838382195291207,"mom3":2,"rev20":1.0731112545257846,"book":0.5735609654124357},"fable":{"p":0.4769431584389385,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 48%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum +0.18%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.1σ; order book 57/43 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.244 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76772.78,"band":57.03,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T09:15:04.863Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76834,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T09:20:04.958Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.27358845950383337,"delta":-9,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 48% likely; candle closed up (+0.08%). Brier 0.2736. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0522. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0263,"ret1":0.0016,"mom3":0.0522,"rev20":0.0283,"book":0.015}},"prev_hash":"19d6e831b04bb490a4a9c7ceecc361415e60fbe5d20f83b24dc03fcadcd90374","hash":"8e2182f30a263b803a7f871504fc014f61b13cb4d02d670c6e92cf2820cfcf53"},{"id":1793697600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76834,"price_at_lock":76834.1,"sigma":0.0007509376063566661,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T09:20:04.958Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T09:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.038982504147327,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":-0.8745422123593397},"fable":{"p":0.5020373506003651,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 50%. Last candle +0.08%; three-candle momentum +0.17%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.1σ; order book 39/61 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.398 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76834.12,"band":57.7,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T09:20:04.958Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76830.7,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T09:25:04.877Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.25204150139783393,"delta":-1,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 50% likely; candle closed down (-0.00%). Brier 0.2520. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0504. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.025,"ret1":-0.0263,"mom3":-0.0504,"rev20":-0.05,"book":0.0219}},"prev_hash":"8e2182f30a263b803a7f871504fc014f61b13cb4d02d670c6e92cf2820cfcf53","hash":"f342e573f690155ae702b10b2a2ef87ff5a9b197a4dafd6008422b2c62e000d2"},{"id":1793697900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76830.7,"price_at_lock":76841.4,"sigma":0.0007472754344182249,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T09:25:04.877Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T09:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.057475107324416436,"mom3":1.0545807134178684,"rev20":2,"book":1.9441478318238048},"fable":{"p":0.41576146833939026,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 42%. Last candle -0.00%; three-candle momentum +0.08%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.1σ; order book 74/26 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.498 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76825.86,"band":57.41,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T09:25:04.877Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76903.3,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T09:30:04.912Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.34133466187694533,"delta":-37,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 42% likely; candle closed up (+0.09%). Brier 0.3413. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0587. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0293,"ret1":-0.0019,"mom3":0.0307,"rev20":0.0587,"book":0.0567}},"prev_hash":"f342e573f690155ae702b10b2a2ef87ff5a9b197a4dafd6008422b2c62e000d2","hash":"06fc521d21aba6439d47e8a803aafa3c9e243a70e0e647966bfcfac32080c6be"},{"id":1793698200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76903.3,"price_at_lock":76901.6,"sigma":0.0007669314078176587,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T09:30:04.912Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T09:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.2320981544579468,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":-0.9606300895916398},"fable":{"p":0.47889443000795284,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 48%. Last candle +0.09%; three-candle momentum +0.17%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.2σ; order book 38/62 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.381 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76902.06,"band":58.98,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T09:30:04.912Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76895.4,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T09:35:04.866Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.22933987509264203,"delta":8,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 52% likely; candle closed down (-0.01%). Brier 0.2293. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0480. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0239,"ret1":-0.0297,"mom3":-0.048,"rev20":-0.0477,"book":0.0229}},"prev_hash":"06fc521d21aba6439d47e8a803aafa3c9e243a70e0e647966bfcfac32080c6be","hash":"ef3fe7d1645f7c6051efcbf914e61ce6bca8a6199229e21528bf15a85a790e20"},{"id":1793698500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76895.4,"price_at_lock":76895.4,"sigma":0.000763105606337454,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T09:35:04.866Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T09:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.13461624460264365,"mom3":1.0473761675655573,"rev20":2,"book":1.3652832526466727},"fable":{"p":0.4301945844768418,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 43%. Last candle -0.01%; three-candle momentum +0.08%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.1σ; order book 67/33 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.476 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76891.3,"band":58.68,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T09:35:04.866Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77022.3,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T09:40:05.217Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.324678211559519,"delta":-30,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 43% likely; candle closed up (+0.17%). Brier 0.3247. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0572. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0286,"ret1":-0.004,"mom3":0.0297,"rev20":0.0572,"book":0.0387}},"prev_hash":"ef3fe7d1645f7c6051efcbf914e61ce6bca8a6199229e21528bf15a85a790e20","hash":"be1dc6ef4c572759d47b82f4962c11d87bce340088754486b1bbcdf16a7f8aeb"},{"id":1793698800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77022.3,"price_at_lock":77037.1,"sigma":0.0008336928461545999,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T09:40:05.217Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T09:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.9794985447129296,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":-0.44521093367271697},"fable":{"p":0.5041097733838802,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 50%. Last candle +0.17%; three-candle momentum +0.25%; price above its 20-candle mean by 4.6σ; order book 44/56 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.362 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77022.56,"band":64.21,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T09:40:05.217Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77035.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T09:45:04.887Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.24590711685338665,"delta":2,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 50% likely; candle closed up (+0.02%). Brier 0.2459. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0498. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0249,"ret1":0.0489,"mom3":0.0495,"rev20":0.0498,"book":-0.0112}},"prev_hash":"be1dc6ef4c572759d47b82f4962c11d87bce340088754486b1bbcdf16a7f8aeb","hash":"daaee38c6ad9ab0c38f82ed0509b7421878368b47a17dda222a9f849547e1b4b"},{"id":1793699100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77035.5,"price_at_lock":77035.5,"sigma":0.0007119206410348874,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T09:45:04.887Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T09:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.24072758735905375,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.6138896829482793,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 61%. Last candle +0.02%; three-candle momentum +0.17%; price above its 20-candle mean by 5.4σ; order book 76/24 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.380 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77041.75,"band":54.84,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T09:45:04.887Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":76995,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T09:50:04.874Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3768605428303389,"delta":-51,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 39% likely; candle closed down (-0.05%). Brier 0.3769. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0616. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0306,"ret1":-0.0076,"mom3":-0.0616,"rev20":-0.0613,"book":-0.0616}},"prev_hash":"daaee38c6ad9ab0c38f82ed0509b7421878368b47a17dda222a9f849547e1b4b","hash":"a02cc1c928e74c3e7b176c883308dbc3e8dae39441ede631690d75f56d4ff37e"},{"id":1793699400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":76995,"price_at_lock":76995,"sigma":0.0007231539156421734,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T09:50:04.874Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T09:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.7269982666644336,"mom3":1.7920681099455478,"rev20":2,"book":0.5936060683981585},"fable":{"p":0.41935806221673366,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 42%. Last candle -0.05%; three-candle momentum +0.13%; price above its 20-candle mean by 4.3σ; order book 57/43 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.385 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":76990.51,"band":55.68,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T09:50:04.874Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77031.2,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T09:55:04.865Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.33714505991270655,"delta":-35,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 42% likely; candle closed up (+0.05%). Brier 0.3371. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0583. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0291,"ret1":-0.0213,"mom3":0.0519,"rev20":0.0583,"book":0.0171}},"prev_hash":"a02cc1c928e74c3e7b176c883308dbc3e8dae39441ede631690d75f56d4ff37e","hash":"e8448066811d8d1105ee7e6c5312d7dfa3b2eeb69fad281d3e6718b7e4a07801"},{"id":1793699700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77031.2,"price_at_lock":77021.1,"sigma":0.0006984572881930884,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T09:55:04.865Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T10:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.6731412327906902,"mom3":0.16580497775248942,"rev20":2,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.38347888807929503,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 38%. Last candle +0.05%; three-candle momentum +0.01%; price above its 20-candle mean by 4.9σ; order book 19/81 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.291 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77024.93,"band":53.8,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T09:55:04.865Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77067.7,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T10:00:05.438Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3800982814439425,"delta":-52,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 38% likely; candle closed up (+0.05%). Brier 0.3801. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0618. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0309,"ret1":0.0206,"mom3":0.0049,"rev20":0.0618,"book":-0.0618}},"prev_hash":"e8448066811d8d1105ee7e6c5312d7dfa3b2eeb69fad281d3e6718b7e4a07801","hash":"ca97cc9f5f0d55eb3a8ba626798921da32f5182456c371068d0d476579c36bde"},{"id":1793700000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77067.7,"price_at_lock":77092.7,"sigma":0.0006429924543776074,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T10:00:05.438Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T10:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.7369199680855175,"mom3":0.6504940033651211,"rev20":2,"book":0.727380418055533},"fable":{"p":0.535353214144425,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 54%. Last candle +0.05%; three-candle momentum +0.04%; price above its 20-candle mean by 5.8σ; order book 59/41 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.145 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77069.45,"band":49.55,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T10:00:05.438Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77071.1,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T10:05:05.012Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.21589663560591651,"delta":14,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 54% likely; candle closed up (+0.00%). Brier 0.2159. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0465. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0233,"ret1":0.0169,"mom3":0.0149,"rev20":0.0465,"book":0.0168}},"prev_hash":"ca97cc9f5f0d55eb3a8ba626798921da32f5182456c371068d0d476579c36bde","hash":"f18a3733376ffc3585a2e998b22154c20943a480afba5efe0629bbd12f67d24d"},{"id":1793700300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77071.1,"price_at_lock":77071,"sigma":0.0006090833516586813,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T10:05:05.012Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T10:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.0724318853961143,"mom3":1.6222926333781236,"rev20":2,"book":0.40733097619707614},"fable":{"p":0.5757261344507814,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 58%. Last candle +0.00%; three-candle momentum +0.10%; price above its 20-candle mean by 5.8σ; order book 55/45 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: momentum (+0.303 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77074.65,"band":46.94,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T10:05:05.012Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77033.8,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T10:10:04.840Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.33146058188963917,"delta":-33,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 42% likely; candle closed down (-0.05%). Brier 0.3315. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0575. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0288,"ret1":-0.0023,"mom3":-0.0469,"rev20":-0.0575,"book":-0.0118}},"prev_hash":"f18a3733376ffc3585a2e998b22154c20943a480afba5efe0629bbd12f67d24d","hash":"d771869332be27463bf65d907b8aff89191b73f64cbf24610c0a613c8998fb0f"},{"id":1793700600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77033.8,"price_at_lock":77030.4,"sigma":0.0006179088067296463,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T10:10:04.840Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T10:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.7832364480997606,"mom3":0.05499571309003282,"rev20":2,"book":-0.5834433754365248},"fable":{"p":0.40106425837175114,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 40%. Last candle -0.05%; three-candle momentum +0.00%; price above its 20-candle mean by 4.5σ; order book 43/57 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.167 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77029.09,"band":47.6,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T10:10:04.840Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77026.7,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T10:15:04.895Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.16085253934328275,"delta":36,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 60% likely; candle closed down (-0.01%). Brier 0.1609. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0400. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.02,"ret1":0.0155,"mom3":-0.0012,"rev20":-0.04,"book":0.0116}},"prev_hash":"d771869332be27463bf65d907b8aff89191b73f64cbf24610c0a613c8998fb0f","hash":"cfbca0f0e4536cb69478795bb5ee945e4d47f174c1b081721686d74812aba926"},{"id":1793700900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77026.7,"price_at_lock":77026.8,"sigma":0.0005652386906144462,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T10:15:04.895Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T10:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.16305913920867132,"mom3":-0.941228876723142,"rev20":2,"book":0.8527876607059929},"fable":{"p":0.40647448140327275,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 41%. Last candle -0.01%; three-candle momentum -0.05%; price above its 20-candle mean by 4.2σ; order book 61/39 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.247 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77022.63,"band":43.54,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T10:15:04.895Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77107.2,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T10:20:04.851Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.35227254122551394,"delta":-41,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 41% likely; candle closed up (+0.10%). Brier 0.3523. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0595. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0297,"ret1":-0.0051,"mom3":-0.0281,"rev20":0.0595,"book":0.0252}},"prev_hash":"cfbca0f0e4536cb69478795bb5ee945e4d47f174c1b081721686d74812aba926","hash":"66315ce30175100486ec26e4b9adee0f92e09ca099614d12d679c2e1fa4b7b2b"},{"id":1793701200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77107.2,"price_at_lock":77096.9,"sigma":0.0005407407916359341,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T10:20:04.851Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T10:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.9327044908049114,"mom3":0.8672475430712286,"rev20":2,"book":0.44468375053080533},"fable":{"p":0.602503477277155,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 60%. Last candle +0.10%; three-candle momentum +0.05%; price above its 20-candle mean by 5.7σ; order book 56/44 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: last candle (+0.413 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77111.47,"band":41.7,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T10:20:04.851Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77015.3,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T10:25:05.087Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.36301044013106326,"delta":-45,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 40% likely; candle closed down (-0.12%). Brier 0.3630. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0602. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0301,"ret1":-0.0584,"mom3":-0.0262,"rev20":-0.0602,"book":-0.0135}},"prev_hash":"66315ce30175100486ec26e4b9adee0f92e09ca099614d12d679c2e1fa4b7b2b","hash":"136a4393332e30656b603d7e5cc4295846b8fff29b702db0cdb4687d6a0d6cd2"},{"id":1793701500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77015.3,"price_at_lock":77022.5,"sigma":0.000637862288240972,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T10:25:05.087Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T10:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.8685023656779984,"mom3":-0.3745673273721311,"rev20":2,"book":0.33574494890637213},"fable":{"p":0.35803985580771375,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 36%. Last candle -0.12%; three-candle momentum -0.02%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.5σ; order book 54/46 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: last candle (-0.290 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77008.33,"band":49.13,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T10:25:05.087Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77049.6,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T10:30:04.921Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.4121128267313809,"delta":-65,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 36% likely; candle closed up (+0.04%). Brier 0.4121. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0643. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0321,"ret1":-0.0601,"mom3":-0.0121,"rev20":0.0643,"book":0.0107}},"prev_hash":"136a4393332e30656b603d7e5cc4295846b8fff29b702db0cdb4687d6a0d6cd2","hash":"fcfaa5a533d813b2b13139de495bc4c1a73b89245a293bbb0f65f3f253fd4af4"},{"id":1793701800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77049.6,"price_at_lock":77055.2,"sigma":0.000633973607380289,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T10:30:04.921Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T10:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.70249935558401,"mom3":0.47101489552062165,"rev20":2,"book":1.302297509227861},"fable":{"p":0.5304463550257027,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 53%. Last candle +0.04%; three-candle momentum +0.03%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.7σ; order book 66/34 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.160 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77051.09,"band":48.85,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T10:30:04.921Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77013.2,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T10:35:04.861Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.28137333556005384,"delta":-13,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 47% likely; candle closed down (-0.05%). Brier 0.2814. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0530. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0265,"ret1":-0.0187,"mom3":-0.0126,"rev20":-0.053,"book":-0.0347}},"prev_hash":"fcfaa5a533d813b2b13139de495bc4c1a73b89245a293bbb0f65f3f253fd4af4","hash":"daff43d15ca8be0e7fadc51b9b45761dea00a000c9d1f68272b6cd7e7170a30e"},{"id":1793702100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77013.2,"price_at_lock":77013.2,"sigma":0.0006523580848922357,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T10:35:04.861Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T10:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.7241773646380962,"mom3":-1.8684586438935329,"rev20":1.4453251396780964,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.3654312483284193,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 37%. Last candle -0.05%; three-candle momentum -0.12%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.4σ; order book 2/98 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.176 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77006.44,"band":50.24,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T10:35:04.861Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77011,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T10:40:04.836Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.13353999725486684,"delta":47,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 63% likely; candle closed down (-0.00%). Brier 0.1335. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0365. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0182,"ret1":0.0132,"mom3":0.0341,"rev20":-0.0263,"book":0.0365}},"prev_hash":"daff43d15ca8be0e7fadc51b9b45761dea00a000c9d1f68272b6cd7e7170a30e","hash":"ad7b9cf0c2b254511600677b7b47a6b6de97b45758ef0c3cf8a8223d7fc0e6d2"},{"id":1793702400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77011,"price_at_lock":76989.1,"sigma":0.0006518821344923139,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T10:40:04.836Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T10:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.043821620412961566,"mom3":-0.08532744891179513,"rev20":1.0293325519515675,"book":-1.274848867142369},"fable":{"p":0.4066880003651936,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 41%. Last candle -0.00%; three-candle momentum -0.01%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.0σ; order book 34/66 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.159 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77006.32,"band":50.2,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T10:40:04.836Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77070.2,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T10:45:04.896Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3520191289106525,"delta":-41,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 41% likely; candle closed up (+0.08%). Brier 0.3520. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0379. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0297,"ret1":-0.0014,"mom3":-0.0026,"rev20":0.0307,"book":-0.0379}},"prev_hash":"ad7b9cf0c2b254511600677b7b47a6b6de97b45758ef0c3cf8a8223d7fc0e6d2","hash":"0e1f70826ca5280d931f3f3461ebb76f6961dfdc47459a3b285d51da199c9aad"},{"id":1793702700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77070.2,"price_at_lock":77064.2,"sigma":0.0006496158660715053,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T10:45:04.896Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T10:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.1833475622200822,"mom3":0.412138735072713,"rev20":1.8462766397979722,"book":-0.17343820874514426},"fable":{"p":0.473201039501226,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 47%. Last candle +0.08%; three-candle momentum +0.03%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.8σ; order book 48/52 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.200 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77068.86,"band":50.07,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T10:45:04.896Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77052,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T10:50:05.015Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.22391922378504084,"delta":10,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 53% likely; candle closed down (-0.02%). Brier 0.2239. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0436. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0236,"ret1":-0.0281,"mom3":-0.0098,"rev20":-0.0436,"book":0.004}},"prev_hash":"0e1f70826ca5280d931f3f3461ebb76f6961dfdc47459a3b285d51da199c9aad","hash":"82873d61c7fb391e7f36bcd8c3938f89470be95b2ca0ecdb1d2df92fcbe3ea0e"},{"id":1793703000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77052,"price_at_lock":77051.9,"sigma":0.0006381612090447957,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T10:50:05.015Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T10:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.37004496564938727,"mom3":0.7897792442103109,"rev20":1.2218804304319029,"book":0.4896326426060249},"fable":{"p":0.4607991659575443,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 46%. Last candle -0.02%; three-candle momentum +0.05%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.2σ; order book 56/44 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.186 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77050.07,"band":49.17,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T10:50:05.015Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77047.6,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T10:55:04.838Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.21233587134716844,"delta":15,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 54% likely; candle closed down (-0.01%). Brier 0.2123. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0280. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.023,"ret1":0.0085,"mom3":-0.0183,"rev20":-0.028,"book":-0.0114}},"prev_hash":"82873d61c7fb391e7f36bcd8c3938f89470be95b2ca0ecdb1d2df92fcbe3ea0e","hash":"2433b3d458ea22349369277ecd5deca5d61741eb506f4e400b187b4e1e6be7c7"},{"id":1793703300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77047.6,"price_at_lock":77047.5,"sigma":0.0006397138549948673,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T10:55:04.838Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T11:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.08926536881864429,"mom3":0.7432521773578776,"rev20":0.8517795087287614,"book":0.03612255996646039},"fable":{"p":0.45254124343637386,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 45%. Last candle -0.01%; three-candle momentum +0.05%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.9σ; order book 50/50 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.153 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77045.26,"band":49.29,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T10:55:04.838Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77135,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T11:00:05.682Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.29971109013819175,"delta":-20,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 45% likely; candle closed up (+0.11%). Brier 0.2997. Largest weight change: bias +0.0275. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0275,"ret1":-0.0025,"mom3":0.0203,"rev20":0.0235,"book":0.0009}},"prev_hash":"2433b3d458ea22349369277ecd5deca5d61741eb506f4e400b187b4e1e6be7c7","hash":"0f02d6dcbe9013e28f9aee62c77856331601e5373359d3ceb2e40454a0040657"},{"id":1793703600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77135,"price_at_lock":77123.5,"sigma":0.000660695150224302,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T11:00:05.682Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T11:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.7169245024276563,"mom3":1.2730698203027626,"rev20":2,"book":1.8092556654549048},"fable":{"p":0.49957254134332413,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 50%. Last candle +0.11%; three-candle momentum +0.08%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.2σ; order book 73/27 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.313 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77134.98,"band":50.96,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T11:00:05.682Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77158.3,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T11:05:04.955Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2504276413775791,"delta":0,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 50% likely; candle closed up (+0.03%). Brier 0.2504. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0502. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0251,"ret1":0.0429,"mom3":0.0318,"rev20":0.0502,"book":0.0452}},"prev_hash":"0f02d6dcbe9013e28f9aee62c77856331601e5373359d3ceb2e40454a0040657","hash":"e4dabe0b85ba85656dbae0204f5dedcc1791d1c5549a99060f1253f45a986fc2"},{"id":1793703900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77158.3,"price_at_lock":77158.3,"sigma":0.0006587392688350237,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T11:05:04.955Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T11:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.45855441977281963,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":0.6817201849294697},"fable":{"p":0.5311956561787107,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 53%. Last candle +0.03%; three-candle momentum +0.14%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.4σ; order book 59/41 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: momentum (+0.230 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77159.89,"band":50.83,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T11:05:04.955Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77218.6,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T11:10:05.085Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.21977751278570964,"delta":12,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 53% likely; candle closed up (+0.08%). Brier 0.2198. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0470. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0235,"ret1":0.0106,"mom3":0.0468,"rev20":0.047,"book":0.0159}},"prev_hash":"e4dabe0b85ba85656dbae0204f5dedcc1791d1c5549a99060f1253f45a986fc2","hash":"94a8de089fe6e23aaf65eb78a8b3231e5d49a040fae4fb833fcb404d1d8b75ae"},{"id":1793704200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77218.6,"price_at_lock":77242,"sigma":0.0006505721593465956,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T11:10:05.085Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T11:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.201266006654085,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.6516963818877053,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 65%. Last candle +0.08%; three-candle momentum +0.22%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.3σ; order book 79/21 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: momentum (+0.324 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77226.22,"band":50.24,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T11:10:05.085Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77194.8,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T11:15:04.911Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.4247081741655258,"delta":-70,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 35% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.4247. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0653. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0326,"ret1":-0.0393,"mom3":-0.0653,"rev20":-0.0651,"book":-0.0653}},"prev_hash":"94a8de089fe6e23aaf65eb78a8b3231e5d49a040fae4fb833fcb404d1d8b75ae","hash":"f52f14feb46365cf4ac5c0e24a28d42bab7ad6d0773a00d8da27a82992cba33a"},{"id":1793704500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77194.8,"price_at_lock":77194.7,"sigma":0.0006569394482123545,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T11:15:04.911Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T11:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.4691694143331474,"mom3":1.1802642222819593,"rev20":2,"book":-1.617651450879901},"fable":{"p":0.4176340473381759,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 42%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum +0.08%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.5σ; order book 30/70 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.249 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77190.62,"band":50.71,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T11:15:04.911Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77194.8,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T11:20:04.892Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.33915010281971397,"delta":-36,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 42% likely; candle closed up (+0.00%). Brier 0.3392. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0584. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0292,"ret1":-0.0137,"mom3":0.0343,"rev20":0.0584,"book":-0.0472}},"prev_hash":"f52f14feb46365cf4ac5c0e24a28d42bab7ad6d0773a00d8da27a82992cba33a","hash":"1c625a8bb0a15cbb0af94049767d0ab0caf7faf1226b2c4026b38ff8b8db64fd"},{"id":1793704800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77194.8,"price_at_lock":77185,"sigma":0.0005662963409934163,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T11:20:04.892Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T11:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0,"mom3":0.8357714671053842,"rev20":2,"book":-1.5648348783179145},"fable":{"p":0.48107954613155396,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 48%. Last candle +0.00%; three-candle momentum +0.05%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.7σ; order book 30/70 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.132 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77193.97,"band":43.72,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T11:20:04.892Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77160.5,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T11:25:04.844Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.23143752970614195,"delta":7,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 52% likely; candle closed down (-0.04%). Brier 0.2314. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0480. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.024,"ret1":-0.0001,"mom3":-0.0202,"rev20":-0.048,"book":0.0376}},"prev_hash":"1c625a8bb0a15cbb0af94049767d0ab0caf7faf1226b2c4026b38ff8b8db64fd","hash":"f36335b15caacf75853da1496ae429b4e5cd1782d123fa638a3f4a5cc907163d"},{"id":1793705100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77160.5,"price_at_lock":77160.5,"sigma":0.0005788298859169949,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T11:25:04.844Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T11:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.7676356351653867,"mom3":-1.3001166000724578,"rev20":1.7441485625875273,"book":1.3942708214572805},"fable":{"p":0.4172923466777904,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 42%. Last candle -0.04%; three-candle momentum -0.08%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.7σ; order book 67/33 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.199 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77156.81,"band":44.66,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T11:25:04.844Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77204.8,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T11:30:04.859Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.33954820924027634,"delta":-36,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 42% likely; candle closed up (+0.06%). Brier 0.3395. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0509. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0292,"ret1":-0.0224,"mom3":-0.038,"rev20":0.0509,"book":0.0406}},"prev_hash":"f36335b15caacf75853da1496ae429b4e5cd1782d123fa638a3f4a5cc907163d","hash":"9241495461f3693c8b8bdd40797a6d37189a6cb0dce5acbaa543726363ec1fa3"},{"id":1793705400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77204.8,"price_at_lock":77212.6,"sigma":0.0005707419691991231,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T11:30:04.859Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T11:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.0059326018646035,"mom3":0.22741889320551484,"rev20":2,"book":0.7659515769634869},"fable":{"p":0.503327958304575,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 50%. Last candle +0.06%; three-candle momentum +0.01%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.5σ; order book 60/40 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.126 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77204.95,"band":44.06,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T11:30:04.859Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77152.5,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T11:35:04.841Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.253339033611052,"delta":-1,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 50% likely; candle closed down (-0.07%). Brier 0.2533. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0503. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0252,"ret1":-0.0254,"mom3":-0.0058,"rev20":-0.0503,"book":-0.0194}},"prev_hash":"9241495461f3693c8b8bdd40797a6d37189a6cb0dce5acbaa543726363ec1fa3","hash":"b04aeaa1261b748c1f98d1e87917bf281b64aadfd0b0debc13e16a470e5d9b7b"},{"id":1793705700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77152.5,"price_at_lock":77152.5,"sigma":0.0005915908608170072,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T11:35:04.841Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T11:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.1450802665266502,"mom3":-0.9256760878313509,"rev20":1.167805204156322,"book":-1.438448449819703},"fable":{"p":0.40856869717773736,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 41%. Last candle -0.07%; three-candle momentum -0.05%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.2σ; order book 32/68 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.132 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77148.33,"band":45.64,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T11:35:04.841Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77070.1,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T11:40:04.976Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.16692838031351365,"delta":33,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 59% likely; candle closed down (-0.11%). Brier 0.1669. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0293. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0204,"ret1":0.0234,"mom3":0.0188,"rev20":-0.0237,"book":0.0293}},"prev_hash":"b04aeaa1261b748c1f98d1e87917bf281b64aadfd0b0debc13e16a470e5d9b7b","hash":"f1d9f29c2528daecdee654d9b0e8bc653e10c8681beba5ced7cd5197f1c07716"},{"id":1793706000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77070.1,"price_at_lock":77075.7,"sigma":0.0006340353979791774,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T11:40:04.976Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T11:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.6844716394720254,"mom3":-1.8473822069868375,"rev20":-0.5984609980898138,"book":0.05490388939278164},"fable":{"p":0.45276492796648626,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 45%. Last candle -0.11%; three-candle momentum -0.12%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.6σ; order book 51/49 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.158 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77067.79,"band":48.87,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T11:40:04.976Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77098.9,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T11:45:04.853Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.29946622406352497,"delta":-20,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 45% likely; candle closed up (+0.04%). Brier 0.2995. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0506. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0274,"ret1":-0.0461,"mom3":-0.0506,"rev20":-0.0162,"book":0.0014}},"prev_hash":"f1d9f29c2528daecdee654d9b0e8bc653e10c8681beba5ced7cd5197f1c07716","hash":"d0df85531f3535f29750fcb8e05e878b8ccab580303fe5d9dd60201d0f80b850"},{"id":1793706300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77098.9,"price_at_lock":77105.3,"sigma":0.000639183967659942,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T11:45:04.853Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T11:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.5846294545643007,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-0.037437938172471284,"book":0.3761790035257374},"fable":{"p":0.4891112886486974,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 49%. Last candle +0.04%; three-candle momentum -0.14%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.0σ; order book 55/45 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: momentum (-0.070 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77098.36,"band":49.28,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T11:45:04.853Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77152.4,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T11:50:04.857Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2610072753861945,"delta":-4,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 49% likely; candle closed up (+0.07%). Brier 0.2610. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0511. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0256,"ret1":0.0149,"mom3":-0.0511,"rev20":-0.0008,"book":0.0095}},"prev_hash":"d0df85531f3535f29750fcb8e05e878b8ccab580303fe5d9dd60201d0f80b850","hash":"2567932b96c86988a8713f89853b5951f01c6756e15d64b260766d96efe8e33d"},{"id":1793706600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77152.4,"price_at_lock":77152.3,"sigma":0.0006444409389091891,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T11:50:04.857Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T11:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.0767688380031128,"mom3":-0.0006438929653123904,"rev20":0.9201923460498068,"book":-0.9571769375034819},"fable":{"p":0.43834444198815325,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 44%. Last candle +0.07%; three-candle momentum -0.00%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.9σ; order book 38/62 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.142 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77149.33,"band":49.72,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T11:50:04.857Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77088.2,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T11:55:04.851Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.19214584982190547,"delta":23,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 56% likely; candle closed down (-0.08%). Brier 0.1921. Largest weight change: last-candle -0.0236. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0219,"ret1":-0.0236,"mom3":0,"rev20":-0.02,"book":0.0209}},"prev_hash":"2567932b96c86988a8713f89853b5951f01c6756e15d64b260766d96efe8e33d","hash":"6d9d3681a262dff1e24eaae6ba58cb7571017dc3371f74ad368780f786e705ec"},{"id":1793706900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77088.2,"price_at_lock":77088.2,"sigma":0.0006736757236972884,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T11:55:04.851Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T12:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.2351926256414905,"mom3":0.34954563607131933,"rev20":-0.4148461670778492,"book":-0.51502959091063},"fable":{"p":0.4970733869029513,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 50%. Last candle -0.08%; three-candle momentum +0.02%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.4σ; order book 44/56 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: order book (-0.076 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77088.05,"band":51.93,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T11:55:04.851Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77103.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T12:00:04.951Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2529351781612685,"delta":-1,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 50% likely; candle closed up (+0.02%). Brier 0.2529. Largest weight change: last-candle -0.0310. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0252,"ret1":-0.031,"mom3":0.0088,"rev20":-0.0103,"book":-0.0131}},"prev_hash":"6d9d3681a262dff1e24eaae6ba58cb7571017dc3371f74ad368780f786e705ec","hash":"32689b4fbfb10fe9205c5aa44cb1c9b63568b75a7c62ea27255d0468f8e25132"},{"id":1793707200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77103.5,"price_at_lock":77075.9,"sigma":0.0006346680421045488,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T12:00:04.951Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T12:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.3127208912999105,"mom3":0.09496080907579908,"rev20":-0.12392984928686093,"book":0.5009731085665984},"fable":{"p":0.52096651889679,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 52%. Last candle +0.02%; three-candle momentum +0.01%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.1σ; order book 56/44 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.068 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77104.53,"band":48.94,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T12:00:04.951Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77065.2,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T12:05:04.909Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2714061138114395,"delta":-9,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 48% likely; candle closed down (-0.05%). Brier 0.2714. Largest weight change: bias -0.0261. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0261,"ret1":-0.0081,"mom3":-0.0025,"rev20":0.0034,"book":-0.0132}},"prev_hash":"32689b4fbfb10fe9205c5aa44cb1c9b63568b75a7c62ea27255d0468f8e25132","hash":"94e9ce1e03b75385ed9ba53ec2261623026b1228d2dbdcd2c3df2436c930965d"},{"id":1793707500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77065.2,"price_at_lock":77078.3,"sigma":0.0005857137876137656,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T12:05:04.909Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T12:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.8480847109582534,"mom3":-1.929919121514972,"rev20":-1.037515352154118,"book":1.5346473260205757},"fable":{"p":0.6033532516173592,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 60%. Last candle -0.05%; three-candle momentum -0.11%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.0σ; order book 69/31 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.188 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77069.87,"band":45.14,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T12:05:04.909Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77068.8,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T12:10:05.007Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.15732864300252197,"delta":37,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 60% likely; candle closed up (+0.00%). Brier 0.1573. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0383. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0199,"ret1":-0.0168,"mom3":-0.0383,"rev20":-0.0204,"book":0.0303}},"prev_hash":"94e9ce1e03b75385ed9ba53ec2261623026b1228d2dbdcd2c3df2436c930965d","hash":"8d578cc58363ab7b85f5266ffc0c0c33f9cb8e34c6c7087daff8c09b284b549f"},{"id":1793707800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77068.8,"price_at_lock":77080.5,"sigma":0.0005780595258373771,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T12:10:05.007Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T12:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.08081121354322063,"mom3":-0.435158058019461,"rev20":-0.9920155139631591,"book":1.1104954492027648},"fable":{"p":0.5952952999996461,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 60%. Last candle +0.00%; three-candle momentum -0.03%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.0σ; order book 64/36 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.200 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77073.05,"band":44.55,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T12:10:05.007Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77190.6,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T12:15:04.863Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.1637858942023764,"delta":34,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 60% likely; candle closed up (+0.16%). Brier 0.1638. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0223. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0202,"ret1":0.0017,"mom3":-0.0088,"rev20":-0.0199,"book":0.0223}},"prev_hash":"8d578cc58363ab7b85f5266ffc0c0c33f9cb8e34c6c7087daff8c09b284b549f","hash":"ca2cb1d48d2a937eaeedb5901d0857b45de7d07e60215dd763fd3fa80bf1c610"},{"id":1793708100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77190.6,"price_at_lock":77173.9,"sigma":0.0006593563727818588,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T12:15:04.863Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T12:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":2,"mom3":1.714376183953152,"rev20":1.3512075907852015,"book":-1.272418163193384},"fable":{"p":0.3250243473623342,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 33%. Last candle +0.16%; three-candle momentum +0.11%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.4σ; order book 34/66 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.299 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77181.69,"band":50.9,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T12:15:04.863Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77242.8,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T12:20:04.863Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.4555921316536429,"delta":-82,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 33% likely; candle closed up (+0.07%). Brier 0.4556. Largest weight change: last-candle +0.0676. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0337,"ret1":0.0676,"mom3":0.0579,"rev20":0.0458,"book":-0.0431}},"prev_hash":"ca2cb1d48d2a937eaeedb5901d0857b45de7d07e60215dd763fd3fa80bf1c610","hash":"0eabc2f55fd1e86d2b7ad6d1af1dc3cdc5dfd487fb91511a031c55287043934b"},{"id":1793708400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77242.8,"price_at_lock":77256.7,"sigma":0.0006694845304019896,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T12:20:04.863Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T12:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.0101027185766316,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.4926991604169764,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 49%. Last candle +0.07%; three-candle momentum +0.23%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.1σ; order book 89/11 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.351 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77242.42,"band":51.71,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T12:20:04.863Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77435.9,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T12:25:04.995Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2573541418416407,"delta":-3,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 49% likely; candle closed up (+0.25%). Brier 0.2574. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0509. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0253,"ret1":0.0256,"mom3":0.0507,"rev20":0.0509,"book":0.0506}},"prev_hash":"0eabc2f55fd1e86d2b7ad6d1af1dc3cdc5dfd487fb91511a031c55287043934b","hash":"e0a4561f81364b4c26e65e2996d1dee373afd54c1c80e101c92b2bded7a1d1e2"},{"id":1793708700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77435.9,"price_at_lock":77453.6,"sigma":0.0008352197818041129,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T12:25:04.995Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T12:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":2,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":1.6874018850917762},"fable":{"p":0.573350009805559,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 57%. Last candle +0.25%; three-candle momentum +0.48%; price above its 20-candle mean by 4.4σ; order book 71/29 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.308 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77440.64,"band":64.68,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T12:25:04.995Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77401.7,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T12:30:05.003Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.32873023374403454,"delta":-31,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 43% likely; candle closed down (-0.04%). Brier 0.3287. Largest weight change: last-candle -0.0574. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0287,"ret1":-0.0574,"mom3":-0.0574,"rev20":-0.0572,"book":-0.0486}},"prev_hash":"e0a4561f81364b4c26e65e2996d1dee373afd54c1c80e101c92b2bded7a1d1e2","hash":"abe09944ae7a860e22767df1427c58b62f7a101bb6bbf6886e23fafe40f59373"},{"id":1793709000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77401.7,"price_at_lock":77401.8,"sigma":0.0008422132008969967,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T12:30:05.003Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T12:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.5243988268579657,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":-0.7224551066442968},"fable":{"p":0.40060362943549577,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 40%. Last candle -0.04%; three-candle momentum +0.27%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.6σ; order book 41/59 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.364 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77395.22,"band":65.19,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T12:30:05.003Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77461.3,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T12:35:05.059Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.35927600904590046,"delta":-44,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 40% likely; candle closed up (+0.08%). Brier 0.3593. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0601. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0299,"ret1":-0.0157,"mom3":0.0599,"rev20":0.0601,"book":-0.0218}},"prev_hash":"abe09944ae7a860e22767df1427c58b62f7a101bb6bbf6886e23fafe40f59373","hash":"f460a249facc1601a0b4b42afaafa6203a7f8f850d0bf4bab35a0b4f9630f65c"},{"id":1793709300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77461.3,"price_at_lock":77450,"sigma":0.0008475477668818504,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T12:35:05.059Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T12:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.9085139003851728,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.42095006490594605,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 42%. Last candle +0.08%; three-candle momentum +0.28%; price above its 20-candle mean by 4.1σ; order book 22/78 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.243 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77456.11,"band":65.65,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T12:35:05.059Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77471.3,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T12:40:04.887Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.33529882733242805,"delta":-34,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 42% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.3353. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0580. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0289,"ret1":0.0264,"mom3":0.0579,"rev20":0.058,"book":-0.058}},"prev_hash":"f460a249facc1601a0b4b42afaafa6203a7f8f850d0bf4bab35a0b4f9630f65c","hash":"ecde562d066aca6cab2756811106320946b631fca4484776758201cc4cc7117a"},{"id":1793709600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77471.3,"price_at_lock":77467.5,"sigma":0.0008241729142832844,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T12:40:04.887Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T12:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.15663791044400122,"mom3":0.5550413367728534,"rev20":2,"book":-1.231136592835529},"fable":{"p":0.4940293151118756,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 49%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum +0.05%; price above its 20-candle mean by 4.2σ; order book 35/65 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.127 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77470.92,"band":63.85,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T12:40:04.887Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77395.5,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T12:45:05.582Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.24406496418990886,"delta":2,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 51% likely; candle closed down (-0.10%). Brier 0.2441. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0493. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0248,"ret1":-0.0038,"mom3":-0.0138,"rev20":-0.0493,"book":0.0304}},"prev_hash":"ecde562d066aca6cab2756811106320946b631fca4484776758201cc4cc7117a","hash":"07bd486791c443f6abcc7485393533ff4931386cefcd6f41c85869b70afc32b8"},{"id":1793709900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77395.5,"price_at_lock":77403.6,"sigma":0.0008639244276301575,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T12:45:05.582Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T12:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.1325375442490417,"mom3":-0.09181497427055621,"rev20":2,"book":1.6011028128992872},"fable":{"p":0.5032795202346501,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 50%. Last candle -0.10%; three-candle momentum -0.01%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.7σ; order book 70/30 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.226 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77395.72,"band":66.86,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T12:45:05.582Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77444.1,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T12:50:05.824Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.24673123501831942,"delta":1,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 50% likely; candle closed up (+0.06%). Brier 0.2467. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0498. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0248,"ret1":-0.0281,"mom3":-0.0024,"rev20":0.0498,"book":0.0397}},"prev_hash":"07bd486791c443f6abcc7485393533ff4931386cefcd6f41c85869b70afc32b8","hash":"93049f02caad57b305202fee44fa37a32d49d45921955416bc1b41cc25128a61"},{"id":1793710200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77444.1,"price_at_lock":77440.2,"sigma":0.0008589801863831723,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T12:50:05.824Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T12:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.7310337246897866,"mom3":-0.25773195350744416,"rev20":2,"book":-1.1037272648411056},"fable":{"p":0.44628198232550886,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 45%. Last candle +0.06%; three-candle momentum -0.02%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.2σ; order book 36/64 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.137 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77440.53,"band":66.52,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T12:50:05.824Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77422.3,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T12:55:04.859Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.1991676077483858,"delta":20,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 55% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.1992. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0446. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0224,"ret1":-0.0163,"mom3":0.0057,"rev20":-0.0446,"book":0.0245}},"prev_hash":"93049f02caad57b305202fee44fa37a32d49d45921955416bc1b41cc25128a61","hash":"eb864d2a710f5b993c7b2395682506768f656155fac3e285c320e577b4b462cc"},{"id":1793710500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77422.3,"price_at_lock":77413.6,"sigma":0.0008582928506688362,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T12:55:04.859Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T13:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.32796889872553187,"mom3":-0.7363182917392115,"rev20":2,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.3830061410956126,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 38%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.06%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.7σ; order book 18/82 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.297 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77414.53,"band":66.45,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T12:55:04.859Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77426.8,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T13:00:05.195Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3806814219257271,"delta":-52,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 38% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.3807. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0618. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0308,"ret1":-0.01,"mom3":-0.0228,"rev20":0.0618,"book":-0.0618}},"prev_hash":"eb864d2a710f5b993c7b2395682506768f656155fac3e285c320e577b4b462cc","hash":"4ffce09457e4f18c660c0c8311ab09ba36b4daa0896419836722d566518fc54a"},{"id":1793710800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77426.8,"price_at_lock":77414.9,"sigma":0.0008578867504631454,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T13:00:05.195Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T13:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.0677511208569894,"mom3":0.4715924482600815,"rev20":2,"book":-0.7578950006327679},"fable":{"p":0.49831318578287453,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 50%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum +0.04%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.6σ; order book 41/59 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.092 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77426.69,"band":66.42,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T13:00:05.195Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77325.6,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T13:05:04.859Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.24831603112507764,"delta":1,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 50% likely; candle closed down (-0.13%). Brier 0.2483. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0498. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.025,"ret1":-0.0016,"mom3":-0.0118,"rev20":-0.0498,"book":0.0188}},"prev_hash":"4ffce09457e4f18c660c0c8311ab09ba36b4daa0896419836722d566518fc54a","hash":"e1b537d7219c45bdccb78c770a69205a7b8ae38ab9ed4b681b1c3dd54aba5687"},{"id":1793711100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77325.6,"price_at_lock":77341.4,"sigma":0.0009069908859380319,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T13:05:04.859Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T13:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.441073987795694,"mom3":-1.6873505221785083,"rev20":0.9202266571552041,"book":0.007015563376782561},"fable":{"p":0.502201130241912,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 50%. Last candle -0.13%; three-candle momentum -0.15%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.9σ; order book 50/50 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: last candle (+0.116 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77325.75,"band":70.13,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T13:05:04.859Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77330.8,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T13:10:04.834Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.24780371473242982,"delta":1,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 50% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.2478. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0421. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0248,"ret1":-0.0358,"mom3":-0.0421,"rev20":0.023,"book":0.0001}},"prev_hash":"e1b537d7219c45bdccb78c770a69205a7b8ae38ab9ed4b681b1c3dd54aba5687","hash":"bbfd7f0c54b6b39d91c2212797c03d71cdc3f879ce2dd0ae16b8245dfec3b31e"},{"id":1793711400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77330.8,"price_at_lock":77330.3,"sigma":0.0009006515956100926,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T13:10:04.834Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T13:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.07466605782801734,"mom3":-1.3120168615919228,"rev20":0.910821531942206,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.4501354486187633,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 45%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum -0.12%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.9σ; order book 18/82 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.211 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77327.33,"band":69.65,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T13:10:04.834Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77350.7,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T13:15:04.880Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.30235102486568866,"delta":-21,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 45% likely; candle closed up (+0.03%). Brier 0.3024. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0551. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0274,"ret1":0.0022,"mom3":-0.0361,"rev20":0.0251,"book":-0.0551}},"prev_hash":"bbfd7f0c54b6b39d91c2212797c03d71cdc3f879ce2dd0ae16b8245dfec3b31e","hash":"dc7527003e398a1f4ecda8b5f1990be572d395420a04413cf6dfc09c9f7659ad"},{"id":1793711700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77350.7,"price_at_lock":77347.4,"sigma":0.0008841354258928839,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T13:15:04.880Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T13:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.29105950134266223,"mom3":-1.1112062969317247,"rev20":1.0739331332432618,"book":-1.9562104517041787},"fable":{"p":0.4938543252814801,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 49%. Last candle +0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.10%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.1σ; order book 26/74 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: order book (-0.099 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77350.28,"band":68.39,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T13:15:04.880Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77406.4,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T13:20:05.063Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.25618344403626575,"delta":-2,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 49% likely; candle closed up (+0.07%). Brier 0.2562. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0496. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0252,"ret1":0.0075,"mom3":-0.0281,"rev20":0.0272,"book":-0.0496}},"prev_hash":"dc7527003e398a1f4ecda8b5f1990be572d395420a04413cf6dfc09c9f7659ad","hash":"73e8ae2968f20d09205d99c4ab8c3d2d5134836fc00d892e189f14fb80f55365"},{"id":1793712000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77406.4,"price_at_lock":77406.3,"sigma":0.0008482845615202795,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T13:20:05.063Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T13:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.8488860247333586,"mom3":1.2315219172442053,"rev20":1.7121306635638092,"book":-0.11704715752168965},"fable":{"p":0.499427099924591,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 50%. Last candle +0.07%; three-candle momentum +0.10%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.7σ; order book 49/51 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: last candle (-0.090 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77406.36,"band":65.66,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T13:20:05.063Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77325.5,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T13:25:04.917Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.24942742813908741,"delta":0,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 50% likely; candle closed down (-0.10%). Brier 0.2494. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0427. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0251,"ret1":-0.0211,"mom3":-0.0307,"rev20":-0.0427,"book":0.0029}},"prev_hash":"73e8ae2968f20d09205d99c4ab8c3d2d5134836fc00d892e189f14fb80f55365","hash":"da0fc0118fb8a478715b1df75cf9aba2ede44f1489d54285b8932e954055b925"},{"id":1793712300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77325.5,"price_at_lock":77319.9,"sigma":0.0008905783209725979,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T13:25:04.917Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T13:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.1735444197846372,"mom3":-0.07601834887832587,"rev20":0.29093676488240133,"book":-0.9467105062786603},"fable":{"p":0.5693256858477158,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 57%. Last candle -0.10%; three-candle momentum -0.01%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.3σ; order book 38/62 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: last candle (+0.150 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77330.27,"band":68.86,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T13:25:04.917Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77664.6,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T13:30:05.162Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.18548036487054037,"delta":26,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 57% likely; candle closed up (+0.44%). Brier 0.1855. Largest weight change: last-candle -0.0251. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0214,"ret1":-0.0251,"mom3":-0.0016,"rev20":0.0063,"book":-0.0204}},"prev_hash":"da0fc0118fb8a478715b1df75cf9aba2ede44f1489d54285b8932e954055b925","hash":"cf4ddc453305a94a24dea10b5c9d1f5d89584b17f1062212a9ddea63b1bd9fc0"},{"id":1793712600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77664.6,"price_at_lock":77649.2,"sigma":0.0012814980489361735,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T13:30:05.162Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T13:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":2,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.41074456228175427,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 41%. Last candle +0.44%; three-candle momentum +0.41%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.4σ; order book 25/75 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: last candle (-0.305 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77655.72,"band":99.53,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T13:30:05.162Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77696.1,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T13:35:04.918Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.34722197088052137,"delta":-39,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 41% likely; candle closed up (+0.04%). Brier 0.3472. Largest weight change: last-candle +0.0591. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0293,"ret1":0.0591,"mom3":0.059,"rev20":0.059,"book":-0.0589}},"prev_hash":"cf4ddc453305a94a24dea10b5c9d1f5d89584b17f1062212a9ddea63b1bd9fc0","hash":"8b3761cb7e77b7c0d7969b2ea09d15f61cc25bae68939915a2fdd91b0f3f4334"},{"id":1793712900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77696.1,"price_at_lock":77695.2,"sigma":0.0012533772152123308,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T13:35:04.918Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T13:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.32359786562868587,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.5737445313009798,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 57%. Last candle +0.04%; three-candle momentum +0.37%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.5σ; order book 23/77 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.151 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77703.28,"band":97.38,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T13:35:04.918Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77674.5,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T13:40:04.890Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.329182787197781,"delta":-32,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 43% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.3292. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0575. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0289,"ret1":-0.0092,"mom3":-0.0574,"rev20":-0.0574,"book":0.0575}},"prev_hash":"8b3761cb7e77b7c0d7969b2ea09d15f61cc25bae68939915a2fdd91b0f3f4334","hash":"6e48027b1bd0a14c979fffdf3a9827c1570632b4ab5e63ba90d42820f9a26af3"},{"id":1793713200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77674.5,"price_at_lock":77681.2,"sigma":0.0012613627784302717,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T13:40:04.890Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T13:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.22040148696878367,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":1.3216023756324329},"fable":{"p":0.4791768841971235,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 48%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum +0.45%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.9σ; order book 67/33 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.139 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77672.46,"band":97.98,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T13:40:04.890Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77612,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T13:45:04.958Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.22961048634886352,"delta":8,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 52% likely; candle closed down (-0.08%). Brier 0.2296. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0479. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0241,"ret1":0.0054,"mom3":-0.0478,"rev20":-0.0479,"book":-0.0316}},"prev_hash":"6e48027b1bd0a14c979fffdf3a9827c1570632b4ab5e63ba90d42820f9a26af3","hash":"473bd9f6bdac06889a3d4d9f9bf4350e582bbf7871601b31fc08ee57662c3a60"},{"id":1793713500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77612,"price_at_lock":77616.2,"sigma":0.0012736638973548124,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T13:45:04.958Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T13:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.6317521263250682,"mom3":-0.5315813042092818,"rev20":1.973911672848988,"book":1.5587313350625418},"fable":{"p":0.49667932156153094,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 50%. Last candle -0.08%; three-candle momentum -0.07%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.0σ; order book 69/31 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.204 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77611.67,"band":98.85,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T13:45:04.958Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77568.5,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T13:50:05.160Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.24669034846682264,"delta":1,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 50% likely; candle closed down (-0.06%). Brier 0.2467. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0489. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.025,"ret1":0.0158,"mom3":0.0133,"rev20":-0.0489,"book":-0.0387}},"prev_hash":"473bd9f6bdac06889a3d4d9f9bf4350e582bbf7871601b31fc08ee57662c3a60","hash":"dc46e9534ee6a0f94d99b419c8f03a569be5da8d71d0fef0024e78ef63dbd55f"},{"id":1793713800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77568.5,"price_at_lock":77576.9,"sigma":0.0012877941628608202,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T13:50:05.160Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T13:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.43522509594774594,"mom3":-1.275923197067725,"rev20":1.2649177281605632,"book":1.4979478554570438},"fable":{"p":0.49065481493775787,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 49%. Last candle -0.06%; three-candle momentum -0.16%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.3σ; order book 69/31 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.192 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77567.57,"band":99.89,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T13:50:05.160Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77421.5,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T13:55:04.865Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2407421474216054,"delta":4,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 51% likely; candle closed down (-0.19%). Brier 0.2407. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0367. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0247,"ret1":0.0108,"mom3":0.0314,"rev20":-0.0309,"book":-0.0367}},"prev_hash":"dc46e9534ee6a0f94d99b419c8f03a569be5da8d71d0fef0024e78ef63dbd55f","hash":"cf734d4f7114b49e1608e84e7aa3011e6bb05c8760b6f67859b2a019495fad70"},{"id":1793714100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77421.5,"price_at_lock":77418,"sigma":0.0013399689152634154,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T13:55:04.865Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T14:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.4142859202357874,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-0.3121332239925747,"book":-1.7678274954064208},"fable":{"p":0.6498132998774099,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 65%. Last candle -0.19%; three-candle momentum -0.33%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.3σ; order book 28/72 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.221 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77437.04,"band":103.74,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T13:55:04.865Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77396.4,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T14:00:04.956Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.4222573246975686,"delta":-69,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 35% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.4223. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0651. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0326,"ret1":0.046,"mom3":0.0651,"rev20":0.0103,"book":0.0576}},"prev_hash":"cf734d4f7114b49e1608e84e7aa3011e6bb05c8760b6f67859b2a019495fad70","hash":"dab441d50483bdb86fc735bbed19291de5479ceca887e608a0d42238f3a0e8c2"},{"id":1793714400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77396.4,"price_at_lock":77389,"sigma":0.0013380716639788922,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T14:00:04.956Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T14:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.2422884805330261,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-0.6288040683099606,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.5809665410550695,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 58%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.28%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.6σ; order book 15/85 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.135 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77404.79,"band":103.56,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T14:00:04.956Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77188.9,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T14:05:04.866Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.33752212182549174,"delta":-35,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 42% likely; candle closed down (-0.27%). Brier 0.3375. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0582. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0291,"ret1":0.0071,"mom3":0.0581,"rev20":0.0184,"book":0.0582}},"prev_hash":"dab441d50483bdb86fc735bbed19291de5479ceca887e608a0d42238f3a0e8c2","hash":"19cb070b0b83934765c99761ad360df5a805fec58024b790de4454d2053461d2"},{"id":1793714700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77188.9,"price_at_lock":77146,"sigma":0.0013498775252591846,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T14:05:04.866Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T14:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.98610851772084,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-2,"book":-1.2726044031687396},"fable":{"p":0.5713233114340781,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 57%. Last candle -0.27%; three-candle momentum -0.49%; price below its 20-candle mean by 2.5σ; order book 34/66 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.308 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77196.33,"band":104.2,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T14:05:04.866Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77237.1,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T14:10:04.911Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.1837637033198444,"delta":26,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 57% likely; candle closed up (+0.06%). Brier 0.1838. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0429. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0214,"ret1":-0.0426,"mom3":-0.0429,"rev20":-0.0427,"book":-0.0273}},"prev_hash":"19cb070b0b83934765c99761ad360df5a805fec58024b790de4454d2053461d2","hash":"8bd8ee74a3116b2a274e6159ee21d1ab9ec0bdb669cca0659fd9295522c44391"},{"id":1793715000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77237.1,"price_at_lock":77256.1,"sigma":0.0013586769218523849,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T14:10:04.911Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T14:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.4595957326857938,"mom3":-1.752263873356328,"rev20":-1.9378468571559266,"book":0.2910933944238051},"fable":{"p":0.5948576077614803,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 59%. Last candle +0.06%; three-candle momentum -0.24%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.9σ; order book 54/46 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.14%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.381 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77247.05,"band":104.94,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T14:10:04.911Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77239.6,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T14:15:05.046Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.1641403579887505,"delta":34,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 59% likely; candle closed up (+0.00%). Brier 0.1641. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0391. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0202,"ret1":0.0094,"mom3":-0.0355,"rev20":-0.0391,"book":0.0059}},"prev_hash":"8bd8ee74a3116b2a274e6159ee21d1ab9ec0bdb669cca0659fd9295522c44391","hash":"93fa39d3eb3cf3ea0af11002fe84a740ec4f7176400610cda656c46763565a0f"},{"id":1793715300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77239.6,"price_at_lock":77217.4,"sigma":0.0013443460287817523,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T14:15:05.046Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T14:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.02407703371981206,"mom3":-1.5057085210296797,"rev20":-1.8282761175563151,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.647458422476561,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 65%. Last candle +0.00%; three-candle momentum -0.20%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.8σ; order book 25/75 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.431 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77254.91,"band":103.84,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T14:15:05.046Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77253,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T14:20:04.935Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.12428556388271492,"delta":50,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 65% likely; candle closed up (+0.02%). Brier 0.1243. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0352. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0176,"ret1":0.0005,"mom3":-0.0265,"rev20":-0.032,"book":-0.0352}},"prev_hash":"93fa39d3eb3cf3ea0af11002fe84a740ec4f7176400610cda656c46763565a0f","hash":"d416c7f915353ee50becb8a00a3e92aad26f03702247849f711ec62f4ca1dfc8"},{"id":1793715600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77253,"price_at_lock":77253,"sigma":0.0013448289781614144,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T14:20:04.935Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T14:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.1290023802665119,"mom3":0.6173990394060692,"rev20":-1.5943380785255892,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.5858266692195359,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 59%. Last candle +0.02%; three-candle momentum +0.08%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.6σ; order book 98/2 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.427 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77261.92,"band":103.89,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T14:20:04.935Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77224.9,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T14:25:04.917Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3431928863688555,"delta":-37,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 41% likely; candle closed down (-0.04%). Brier 0.3432. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0585. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0294,"ret1":-0.0037,"mom3":-0.018,"rev20":0.047,"book":-0.0585}},"prev_hash":"d416c7f915353ee50becb8a00a3e92aad26f03702247849f711ec62f4ca1dfc8","hash":"0fe56853654e6ef67ca538d6d94caf3d3a32ec345bb568c559a56241a759ab88"},{"id":1793715900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77224.9,"price_at_lock":77230.4,"sigma":0.0013322860921087685,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T14:25:04.917Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T14:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.27301937747444927,"mom3":-0.11850751615609884,"rev20":-1.7992805919755024,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.5583215629530043,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 56%. Last candle -0.04%; three-candle momentum -0.02%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.8σ; order book 99/1 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.398 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77230.9,"band":102.89,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T14:25:04.917Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77164.9,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T14:30:04.996Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3117229676582855,"delta":-25,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 44% likely; candle closed down (-0.08%). Brier 0.3117. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0557. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.028,"ret1":0.0077,"mom3":0.0034,"rev20":0.0504,"book":-0.0557}},"prev_hash":"0fe56853654e6ef67ca538d6d94caf3d3a32ec345bb568c559a56241a759ab88","hash":"bd229492c57e83f8cee26718262f11cb84d34f561668698ba092a72a6a56a5dc"},{"id":1793716200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77164.9,"price_at_lock":77184.1,"sigma":0.0013285870145714547,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T14:30:04.996Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T14:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.5847953253902676,"mom3":-0.727995415534583,"rev20":-2,"book":0.966367562186377},"fable":{"p":0.569254982756844,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 57%. Last candle -0.08%; three-candle momentum -0.10%; price below its 20-candle mean by 2.3σ; order book 62/38 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.341 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77172,"band":102.52,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T14:30:04.996Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77432.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T14:35:04.926Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.1855412698798067,"delta":26,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 57% likely; candle closed up (+0.35%). Brier 0.1855. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0429. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0215,"ret1":-0.0125,"mom3":-0.0156,"rev20":-0.0429,"book":0.021}},"prev_hash":"bd229492c57e83f8cee26718262f11cb84d34f561668698ba092a72a6a56a5dc","hash":"58a6902c316c1f9a931edf6223306c3dfb908273193cc5a73ec05adbc00a9a46"},{"id":1793716500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77432.5,"price_at_lock":77420.5,"sigma":0.001547489637266457,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T14:35:04.926Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T14:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":2,"mom3":1.5038592298972084,"rev20":0.29627352775544336,"book":0.342189138318039},"fable":{"p":0.42369706680242664,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 42%. Last candle +0.35%; three-candle momentum +0.23%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.3σ; order book 54/46 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.15%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.128 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77423.36,"band":119.83,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T14:35:04.926Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77320,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T14:40:05.038Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.17951920441697997,"delta":28,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 58% likely; candle closed down (-0.15%). Brier 0.1795. Largest weight change: last-candle -0.0423. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0212,"ret1":-0.0423,"mom3":-0.0318,"rev20":-0.0061,"book":-0.0071}},"prev_hash":"58a6902c316c1f9a931edf6223306c3dfb908273193cc5a73ec05adbc00a9a46","hash":"fbf713461a8b364d69778d8df616b654c6cf5fae38d7bbec84ec9a9742e2613f"},{"id":1793716800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77320,"price_at_lock":77320,"sigma":0.0015797361100212326,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T14:40:05.038Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T14:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.9196968431329848,"mom3":0.783718351714134,"rev20":-0.586258172501568,"book":-0.21461880831255456},"fable":{"p":0.5499896681759397,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 55%. Last candle -0.15%; three-candle momentum +0.12%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.6σ; order book 47/53 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.16%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.129 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77326.11,"band":122.15,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T14:40:05.038Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77380.2,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T14:45:04.929Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.20250929874840082,"delta":19,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 55% likely; candle closed up (+0.08%). Brier 0.2025. Largest weight change: bias +0.0225. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0225,"ret1":-0.0206,"mom3":0.0178,"rev20":-0.013,"book":-0.0047}},"prev_hash":"fbf713461a8b364d69778d8df616b654c6cf5fae38d7bbec84ec9a9742e2613f","hash":"e4c34aa9951bef39f012147c31a0c08c6716e5da857aa46afb98e5887db2fe45"},{"id":1793717100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77380.2,"price_at_lock":77380.1,"sigma":0.0015632392912943306,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T14:45:04.929Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T14:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.4980571551409142,"mom3":1.7870598478229416,"rev20":-0.11741030330879353,"book":-0.6560696636732135},"fable":{"p":0.4897274972051072,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 49%. Last candle +0.08%; three-candle momentum +0.28%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.1σ; order book 42/58 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.16%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: momentum (-0.177 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77378.96,"band":120.96,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T14:45:04.929Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77377.8,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T14:50:05.011Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2398330215187783,"delta":4,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 51% likely; candle closed down (-0.00%). Brier 0.2398. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0437. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0245,"ret1":-0.0121,"mom3":-0.0437,"rev20":0.0031,"book":0.0162}},"prev_hash":"e4c34aa9951bef39f012147c31a0c08c6716e5da857aa46afb98e5887db2fe45","hash":"a1fbeaaeb4ddb1c931e1864d6224227fea881afbe2540b79ba817f0bd691d70f"},{"id":1793717400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77377.8,"price_at_lock":77339.4,"sigma":0.0015632893921053148,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T14:50:05.011Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T14:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.019840015764095026,"mom3":-0.45117141387143306,"rev20":-0.15666127449036235,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.609370984739002,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 61%. Last candle -0.00%; three-candle momentum -0.07%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.2σ; order book 13/87 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.16%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.309 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77391.03,"band":120.96,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T14:50:05.011Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77293.5,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T14:55:04.850Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.37133299704178097,"delta":-49,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 39% likely; candle closed down (-0.11%). Brier 0.3713. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0611. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0305,"ret1":0.0007,"mom3":0.0139,"rev20":0.005,"book":0.0611}},"prev_hash":"a1fbeaaeb4ddb1c931e1864d6224227fea881afbe2540b79ba817f0bd691d70f","hash":"3cb98dec168920f9a068ca2622ff30e7cd0506b4d720046e23d3905ccd308fc6"},{"id":1793717700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77293.5,"price_at_lock":77288.8,"sigma":0.0015810218411698744,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T14:55:04.850Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T15:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.689085842561236,"mom3":-0.21624808119914093,"rev20":-0.8204790768957998,"book":-0.835374806800618},"fable":{"p":0.5947943709354303,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 59%. Last candle -0.11%; three-candle momentum -0.03%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.8σ; order book 40/60 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.16%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.184 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77305.08,"band":122.2,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T14:55:04.850Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77394.3,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T15:00:05.031Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.16419160182561365,"delta":34,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 59% likely; candle closed up (+0.13%). Brier 0.1642. Largest weight change: bias +0.0203. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0203,"ret1":-0.0138,"mom3":-0.0043,"rev20":-0.0164,"book":-0.0168}},"prev_hash":"3cb98dec168920f9a068ca2622ff30e7cd0506b4d720046e23d3905ccd308fc6","hash":"2648e732a35fdf55f14c1befec342d60029a5d1d82975c10cd09f80746810366"},{"id":1793718000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77394.3,"price_at_lock":77380.1,"sigma":0.0015999919004021966,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T15:00:05.031Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T15:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.8150791324403707,"mom3":0.11477842877317534,"rev20":0.008156433142425503,"book":0.6158660653527366},"fable":{"p":0.45440717962962357,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 45%. Last candle +0.13%; three-candle momentum +0.02%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.0σ; order book 58/42 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.16%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: last candle (-0.120 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77388.65,"band":123.83,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T15:00:05.031Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77339.1,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T15:05:04.935Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.20648588489894898,"delta":17,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 55% likely; candle closed down (-0.07%). Brier 0.2065. Largest weight change: bias -0.0227. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0227,"ret1":-0.0184,"mom3":-0.0025,"rev20":0.0001,"book":-0.0139}},"prev_hash":"2648e732a35fdf55f14c1befec342d60029a5d1d82975c10cd09f80746810366","hash":"76298e69f48e525a08fca98d7aef4c223509eec62b89ca15ac58b20960aa563c"},{"id":1793718300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77339.1,"price_at_lock":77322,"sigma":0.0015908285331626708,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T15:05:04.935Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T15:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.4483392172416701,"mom3":-0.31340308925154386,"rev20":-0.44566082868717727,"book":0.8026895213184595},"fable":{"p":0.5308605086148749,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 53%. Last candle -0.07%; three-candle momentum -0.05%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.4σ; order book 60/40 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.16%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.107 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77342.9,"band":123.03,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T15:05:04.935Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77450.3,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T15:10:05.102Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.22009186237709388,"delta":12,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 53% likely; candle closed up (+0.14%). Brier 0.2201. Largest weight change: bias +0.0235. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0235,"ret1":-0.0104,"mom3":-0.0072,"rev20":-0.0102,"book":0.019}},"prev_hash":"76298e69f48e525a08fca98d7aef4c223509eec62b89ca15ac58b20960aa563c","hash":"d37d0cac5726e7887fec2870d757cf20810a13fdfadd2dd3be3995cbc53ecf1c"},{"id":1793718600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77450.3,"price_at_lock":77449.9,"sigma":0.0012859931954904234,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T15:10:05.102Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T15:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.1180648719527109,"mom3":1.577545678569449,"rev20":0.6737220024887035,"book":-1.311823312419207},"fable":{"p":0.3942429349058482,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 39%. Last candle +0.14%; three-candle momentum +0.20%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.7σ; order book 34/66 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.225 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77439.77,"band":99.6,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T15:10:05.102Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77431.8,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T15:15:04.915Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.15542749172317688,"delta":38,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 61% likely; candle closed down (-0.02%). Brier 0.1554. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0310. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0197,"ret1":-0.0219,"mom3":-0.031,"rev20":-0.013,"book":0.026}},"prev_hash":"d37d0cac5726e7887fec2870d757cf20810a13fdfadd2dd3be3995cbc53ecf1c","hash":"f1bf8cb79cfdf6f06be605b157cd5f07aee21438dfd6020952c6463cfdc7b83d"},{"id":1793718900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77431.8,"price_at_lock":77421.1,"sigma":0.0012800461686991926,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T15:15:04.915Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T15:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.18660487699538247,"mom3":0.37946298511972937,"rev20":0.62360391333936,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.4920869011872946,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 49%. Last candle -0.02%; three-candle momentum +0.05%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.6σ; order book 20/80 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.165 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77431.02,"band":99.12,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T15:15:04.915Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77313.7,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T15:20:04.972Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.24214951832011422,"delta":3,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 51% likely; candle closed down (-0.15%). Brier 0.2421. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0493. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0246,"ret1":0.0048,"mom3":-0.0092,"rev20":-0.0151,"book":0.0493}},"prev_hash":"f1bf8cb79cfdf6f06be605b157cd5f07aee21438dfd6020952c6463cfdc7b83d","hash":"362f3d56bf2db1fc2f1f559dd4d8b5c96d031d0998d1f50cedec39ccdacb8453"},{"id":1793719200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77313.7,"price_at_lock":77315,"sigma":0.00131374781807418,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T15:20:04.972Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T15:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.1609634165212144,"mom3":-0.24833700291689842,"rev20":-0.3768905246062904,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.6018510010479093,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 60%. Last candle -0.15%; three-candle momentum -0.03%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.4σ; order book 10/90 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: last candle (+0.224 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77324.05,"band":101.57,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T15:20:04.972Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77321.2,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T15:25:04.866Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.1585226253665519,"delta":37,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 60% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.1585. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0398. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0199,"ret1":-0.0229,"mom3":-0.0048,"rev20":-0.0072,"book":-0.0398}},"prev_hash":"362f3d56bf2db1fc2f1f559dd4d8b5c96d031d0998d1f50cedec39ccdacb8453","hash":"a893c4698d9942623a7fa33d1c65c3aa3be63c53c6d41cfa69921a53adaf5806"},{"id":1793719500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77321.2,"price_at_lock":77303.2,"sigma":0.00130878134409695,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T15:25:04.866Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T15:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.07412039239914477,"mom3":-1.2737564100429124,"rev20":-0.16064364181360535,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.600379046479173,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 60%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum -0.17%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.2σ; order book 21/79 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: momentum (+0.239 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77331.36,"band":101.2,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T15:25:04.866Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77368.4,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T15:30:04.902Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.159696906492895,"delta":36,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 60% likely; candle closed up (+0.06%). Brier 0.1597. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0399. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.02,"ret1":0.0017,"mom3":-0.0253,"rev20":-0.0029,"book":-0.0399}},"prev_hash":"a893c4698d9942623a7fa33d1c65c3aa3be63c53c6d41cfa69921a53adaf5806","hash":"657f15d70722229f740edcb62435d67166656b1ca5c56966c0bbe5ecdaafd720"},{"id":1793719800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77368.4,"price_at_lock":77392.4,"sigma":0.0013169210777135868,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T15:30:04.902Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T15:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.4635362087694303,"mom3":-0.6209674814662581,"rev20":0.402075314014573,"book":-1.0123770812032946},"fable":{"p":0.5115543503625639,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 51%. Last candle +0.06%; three-candle momentum -0.08%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.4σ; order book 37/63 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: momentum (+0.132 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77369.58,"band":101.89,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T15:30:04.902Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77344,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T15:35:04.853Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2616878533748648,"delta":-5,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 49% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.2617. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0260. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0256,"ret1":-0.0116,"mom3":0.0161,"rev20":-0.01,"book":0.026}},"prev_hash":"657f15d70722229f740edcb62435d67166656b1ca5c56966c0bbe5ecdaafd720","hash":"ed9708a9d84a8e85ef2c6db53e94b2fd8ae5bab72138c3e2422b0bb1ef829ded"},{"id":1793720100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77344,"price_at_lock":77331,"sigma":0.001254475629790804,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T15:35:04.853Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T15:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.2513992523940054,"mom3":0.31253995343897534,"rev20":0.210514277402224,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.5231565164986874,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 52%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum +0.04%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.2σ; order book 8/92 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.167 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77346.25,"band":97.03,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T15:35:04.853Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77397.2,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T15:40:04.883Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.22737970775766655,"delta":9,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 52% likely; candle closed up (+0.07%). Brier 0.2274. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0476. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0238,"ret1":-0.0058,"mom3":0.0076,"rev20":0.0053,"book":-0.0476}},"prev_hash":"ed9708a9d84a8e85ef2c6db53e94b2fd8ae5bab72138c3e2422b0bb1ef829ded","hash":"2b1a353bc810614bc4c8e051e246b09760dccfc52dcedeb418a356342e7a3b99"},{"id":1793720400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77397.2,"price_at_lock":77422.5,"sigma":0.0012627499186314858,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T15:40:04.883Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T15:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.5447128923793492,"mom3":0.7783825713730976,"rev20":0.7535815489380437,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.3228755310377242,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 32%. Last candle +0.07%; three-candle momentum +0.10%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.8σ; order book 76/24 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.263 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77379.89,"band":97.73,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T15:40:04.883Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77600.1,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T15:45:04.970Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.4584975464674439,"delta":-83,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 32% likely; candle closed up (+0.26%). Brier 0.4585. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0678. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0338,"ret1":0.0187,"mom3":0.0265,"rev20":0.0258,"book":0.0678}},"prev_hash":"2b1a353bc810614bc4c8e051e246b09760dccfc52dcedeb418a356342e7a3b99","hash":"5b17423e10ce70963facef58900ecff74e32502b3906e4a8d737cc3b99a254f3"},{"id":1793720700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77600.1,"price_at_lock":77595.1,"sigma":0.0012279183346513122,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T15:45:04.970Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T15:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":2,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":-0.2943116210954196},"fable":{"p":0.3,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 30%. Last candle +0.26%; three-candle momentum +0.30%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.7σ; order book 46/54 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.536 in log-odds). Raw model said 23%, capped by policy.","expected_close":77581.04,"band":95.29,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T15:45:04.970Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77670,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T15:50:04.853Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 30% likely; candle closed up (+0.09%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0703. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0349,"ret1":0.0702,"mom3":0.0702,"rev20":0.0703,"book":-0.0102}},"prev_hash":"5b17423e10ce70963facef58900ecff74e32502b3906e4a8d737cc3b99a254f3","hash":"f93b5b45ea9adf941e777694c97fe8450530f2644b9a7744e2ad6fa12c321cf3"},{"id":1793721000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77670,"price_at_lock":77647.4,"sigma":0.0012334111617326156,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T15:50:04.853Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T15:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.7303096185883082,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.38905508481665185,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 39%. Last candle +0.09%; three-candle momentum +0.42%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.2σ; order book 16/84 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.395 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77659.37,"band":95.8,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T15:50:04.853Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77715.6,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T15:55:05.219Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3732536893883885,"delta":-49,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 39% likely; candle closed up (+0.06%). Brier 0.3733. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0613. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0305,"ret1":0.0225,"mom3":0.0612,"rev20":0.0613,"book":-0.061}},"prev_hash":"f93b5b45ea9adf941e777694c97fe8450530f2644b9a7744e2ad6fa12c321cf3","hash":"73d2f92a52019b6988e7b61e989f30ff9714354dc2b23f011842fe34d5c93d0e"},{"id":1793721300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77715.6,"price_at_lock":77705.7,"sigma":0.001233762094610791,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T15:55:05.219Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T16:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.47586100163921935,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":1.7781287386028677},"fable":{"p":0.3737958578307293,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 37%. Last candle +0.06%; three-candle momentum +0.41%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.4σ; order book 72/28 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.273 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77703.5,"band":95.88,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T15:55:05.219Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77687.6,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T16:00:06.980Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.13972334333141076,"delta":44,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 63% likely; candle closed down (-0.04%). Brier 0.1397. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0373. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0188,"ret1":-0.0088,"mom3":-0.0373,"rev20":-0.0372,"book":-0.0331}},"prev_hash":"73d2f92a52019b6988e7b61e989f30ff9714354dc2b23f011842fe34d5c93d0e","hash":"985bd615de8e58a85a2a01d0b224213950076050eef11394941c44a2ecc11e4c"},{"id":1793721600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77687.6,"price_at_lock":77711,"sigma":0.0012421280320647407,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:00:06.980Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T16:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.2900570756316229,"mom3":0.9077834551390022,"rev20":2,"book":-0.8095520380550976},"fable":{"p":0.4652897145398307,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 47%. Last candle -0.04%; three-candle momentum +0.11%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.9σ; order book 40/60 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.347 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77684.25,"band":96.5,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:00:06.980Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77585.7,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T16:05:04.920Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.21649451845655715,"delta":13,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 53% likely; candle closed down (-0.13%). Brier 0.2165. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0464. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0234,"ret1":0.0069,"mom3":-0.0211,"rev20":-0.0464,"book":0.019}},"prev_hash":"985bd615de8e58a85a2a01d0b224213950076050eef11394941c44a2ecc11e4c","hash":"38e1ed7b7d73e3b50d22a34bbbd2073c7c3b4d6f36d0398b4ca732510fbfd1d4"},{"id":1793721900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77585.7,"price_at_lock":77581.4,"sigma":0.0012832415949985904,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:05:04.920Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T16:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.0221486293403406,"mom3":-0.8453999621608916,"rev20":1.5731081334416332,"book":-0.1985164973789211},"fable":{"p":0.48942809142957777,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 49%. Last candle -0.13%; three-candle momentum -0.11%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.6σ; order book 48/52 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.346 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77584.65,"band":99.56,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:05:04.920Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77606.4,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T16:10:04.837Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2606836738212436,"delta":-4,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 49% likely; candle closed up (+0.03%). Brier 0.2607. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0404. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0255,"ret1":-0.026,"mom3":-0.0215,"rev20":0.0404,"book":-0.0049}},"prev_hash":"38e1ed7b7d73e3b50d22a34bbbd2073c7c3b4d6f36d0398b4ca732510fbfd1d4","hash":"908ad2c0a7408a2d60b4284a31090af84d54a0c6aca9c98f7b471888e4ad4d72"},{"id":1793722200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77606.4,"price_at_lock":77594.4,"sigma":0.0012621202683134444,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:10:04.837Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T16:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.2113916952313966,"mom3":-1.1133248979149055,"rev20":1.5849118584735353,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.553393814186652,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 55%. Last candle +0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.14%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.6σ; order book 8/92 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.308 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77611.63,"band":97.95,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:10:04.837Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77631,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T16:15:04.985Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.1994570852067467,"delta":20,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 55% likely; candle closed up (+0.03%). Brier 0.1995. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0445. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0222,"ret1":0.0049,"mom3":-0.0247,"rev20":0.0356,"book":-0.0445}},"prev_hash":"908ad2c0a7408a2d60b4284a31090af84d54a0c6aca9c98f7b471888e4ad4d72","hash":"dba81f450f77c74b4e8e8e462d9db4fb31394673f2e972ff07bacba3fe69aca3"},{"id":1793722500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77631,"price_at_lock":77650,"sigma":0.0010305249674011057,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:15:04.985Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T16:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.30759484367837403,"mom3":-0.7063174121019864,"rev20":2,"book":0.6899996013881967},"fable":{"p":0.43742617809060474,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 44%. Last candle +0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.07%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.1σ; order book 59/41 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.288 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77625.99,"band":80,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:15:04.985Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77559.3,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T16:20:04.907Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.19134166127895347,"delta":23,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 56% likely; candle closed down (-0.09%). Brier 0.1913. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0436. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.022,"ret1":-0.0066,"mom3":0.0156,"rev20":-0.0436,"book":-0.0149}},"prev_hash":"dba81f450f77c74b4e8e8e462d9db4fb31394673f2e972ff07bacba3fe69aca3","hash":"369d62922a321006bc2dfae49f542e0538de2a94d2a2c8dc87add20eed3fb009"},{"id":1793722800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77559.3,"price_at_lock":77546.5,"sigma":0.0009957843771770517,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:20:04.907Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T16:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.9275101411235959,"mom3":-0.34125279190301167,"rev20":1.113980655695474,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.6216847962365307,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 62%. Last candle -0.09%; three-candle momentum -0.03%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.1σ; order book 20/80 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.426 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77568.7,"band":77.23,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:20:04.907Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77429.2,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T16:25:04.911Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.38649198587165673,"delta":-55,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 38% likely; candle closed down (-0.17%). Brier 0.3865. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0624. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0312,"ret1":0.029,"mom3":0.0107,"rev20":-0.0344,"book":0.0624}},"prev_hash":"369d62922a321006bc2dfae49f542e0538de2a94d2a2c8dc87add20eed3fb009","hash":"ca6dcb10c159995bbb43952942dd6024c72063094eafb0aa954fb119a9ead352"},{"id":1793723100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77429.2,"price_at_lock":77432.6,"sigma":0.0010606398095916666,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:25:04.911Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T16:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.5815229267022233,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-0.5672115344441407,"book":1.7466463191376504},"fable":{"p":0.5844154931024192,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 58%. Last candle -0.17%; three-candle momentum -0.23%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.6σ; order book 72/28 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (-0.263 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77436.13,"band":82.12,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:25:04.911Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77560.3,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T16:30:05.105Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.17271048237330536,"delta":31,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 58% likely; candle closed up (+0.17%). Brier 0.1727. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0414. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0207,"ret1":-0.0327,"mom3":-0.0414,"rev20":-0.0116,"book":0.0364}},"prev_hash":"ca6dcb10c159995bbb43952942dd6024c72063094eafb0aa954fb119a9ead352","hash":"20393b85e47a7033d316de3541dd992d264ec9781cec1e5a6f65762debdcfea8"},{"id":1793723400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77560.3,"price_at_lock":77547.7,"sigma":0.0011203846992968221,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:30:05.105Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T16:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.5112306403231581,"mom3":-0.8103168474985891,"rev20":0.8681309931419666,"book":0.36600652603421263},"fable":{"p":0.4340382405858187,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 43%. Last candle +0.17%; three-candle momentum -0.09%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.9σ; order book 55/45 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: last candle (-0.232 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77554.57,"band":86.9,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:30:05.105Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77515.3,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T16:35:04.866Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.18838919429083303,"delta":25,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 57% likely; candle closed down (-0.06%). Brier 0.1884. Largest weight change: last-candle -0.0326. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0218,"ret1":-0.0326,"mom3":0.0177,"rev20":-0.0186,"book":-0.0078}},"prev_hash":"20393b85e47a7033d316de3541dd992d264ec9781cec1e5a6f65762debdcfea8","hash":"01434fe8d6f381f30a1c3dab2f0cf178fce0b8f62b9381ecb62c3b3ac376d2e7"},{"id":1793723700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77515.3,"price_at_lock":77540,"sigma":0.0010982111374433683,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:35:04.866Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T16:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.5283080032176504,"mom3":-0.5139815133944535,"rev20":0.22647961397695315,"book":0.22432957649960028},"fable":{"p":0.537311275453539,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 54%. Last candle -0.06%; three-candle momentum -0.06%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.2σ; order book 53/47 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: last candle (+0.098 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77518.48,"band":85.13,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:35:04.866Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77592,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T16:40:04.863Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2140808558224309,"delta":14,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 54% likely; candle closed up (+0.10%). Brier 0.2141. Largest weight change: bias +0.0231. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0231,"ret1":-0.012,"mom3":-0.0118,"rev20":0.0055,"book":0.0053}},"prev_hash":"01434fe8d6f381f30a1c3dab2f0cf178fce0b8f62b9381ecb62c3b3ac376d2e7","hash":"c78407fcb33ede133a4644a6ada927603c0b07c3b65d05509a3f9487bcb17969"},{"id":1793724000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77592,"price_at_lock":77592,"sigma":0.0010836349570593846,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:40:04.863Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T16:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.9131138396704755,"mom3":1.9401810694068848,"rev20":1.025026000214086,"book":0.7480983773145946},"fable":{"p":0.3290976293741395,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 33%. Last candle +0.10%; three-candle momentum +0.21%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.0σ; order book 59/41 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.281 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77577.63,"band":84.08,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:40:04.863Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77481.3,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T16:45:04.969Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.10830524965967848,"delta":57,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 67% likely; candle closed down (-0.14%). Brier 0.1083. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0318. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0165,"ret1":-0.0148,"mom3":-0.0318,"rev20":-0.0166,"book":-0.0122}},"prev_hash":"c78407fcb33ede133a4644a6ada927603c0b07c3b65d05509a3f9487bcb17969","hash":"485dc397e9063ffa33638edddcc3271121dd5f9453ccc53ab20402cb9e940290"},{"id":1793724300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77481.3,"price_at_lock":77480.3,"sigma":0.0011218169715438322,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:45:04.969Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T16:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.2717702706801959,"mom3":-0.906926135059483,"rev20":-0.3647846161510376,"book":-1.1590607350116406},"fable":{"p":0.6793223477270515,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 68%. Last candle -0.14%; three-candle momentum -0.10%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.4σ; order book 36/64 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: last candle (+0.271 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77496.89,"band":86.92,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:45:04.969Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77529.7,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T16:50:04.878Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.1028341566672901,"delta":59,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 68% likely; candle closed up (+0.06%). Brier 0.1028. Largest weight change: last-candle -0.0202. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.016,"ret1":-0.0202,"mom3":-0.0144,"rev20":-0.0056,"book":-0.0185}},"prev_hash":"485dc397e9063ffa33638edddcc3271121dd5f9453ccc53ab20402cb9e940290","hash":"05c5f116621bf3e0ec3244adf2ceeb32a2ce24e7d4375d2874dcbc180cfb5e7e"},{"id":1793724600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77529.7,"price_at_lock":77529.7,"sigma":0.0010865008218717425,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:50:04.878Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T16:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.5749345444792447,"mom3":0.17253135406186765,"rev20":0.15091019863682822,"book":-0.8971342249877525},"fable":{"p":0.5036087590495392,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 50%. Last candle +0.06%; three-candle momentum +0.02%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.2σ; order book 39/61 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: last candle (-0.134 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77530,"band":84.24,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:50:04.878Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77695.9,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T16:55:04.918Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.24640426409233845,"delta":1,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 50% likely; candle closed up (+0.21%). Brier 0.2464. Largest weight change: bias +0.0247. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0247,"ret1":0.0145,"mom3":0.0045,"rev20":0.004,"book":-0.0221}},"prev_hash":"05c5f116621bf3e0ec3244adf2ceeb32a2ce24e7d4375d2874dcbc180cfb5e7e","hash":"37c9175ed898a139ce3d8cd4ff5c2647fe1b8ed662e2a3a611f876f4e2cc762c"},{"id":1793724900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77695.9,"price_at_lock":77695.8,"sigma":0.0011751016203100967,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:55:04.918Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T17:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.8242631725508502,"mom3":1.1417463547771367,"rev20":1.8188182852408221,"book":-0.89994066562382},"fable":{"p":0.30430095204932744,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 30%. Last candle +0.21%; three-candle momentum +0.13%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.8σ; order book 39/61 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.482 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77678.03,"band":91.3,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:55:04.918Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77737.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T17:00:05.369Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.4839971653194723,"delta":-94,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 30% likely; candle closed up (+0.05%). Brier 0.4840. Largest weight change: last-candle +0.0637. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0347,"ret1":0.0637,"mom3":0.0399,"rev20":0.0635,"book":-0.0311}},"prev_hash":"37c9175ed898a139ce3d8cd4ff5c2647fe1b8ed662e2a3a611f876f4e2cc762c","hash":"1ea458ed54eeca00091f1c9bcd8eed11384d459228c0b3ea2bc29fceb5caa916"},{"id":1793725200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77737.5,"price_at_lock":77784.3,"sigma":0.0011104239790907344,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:00:05.369Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T17:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.48217689643914985,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":-0.7991858955906044},"fable":{"p":0.38662630546188503,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 39%. Last candle +0.05%; three-candle momentum +0.33%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.2σ; order book 40/60 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.403 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77727.71,"band":86.32,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:00:05.369Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77703.9,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T17:05:04.841Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.14947990007510684,"delta":40,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 61% likely; candle closed down (-0.04%). Brier 0.1495. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0385. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0195,"ret1":-0.0092,"mom3":-0.0385,"rev20":-0.0385,"book":0.0157}},"prev_hash":"1ea458ed54eeca00091f1c9bcd8eed11384d459228c0b3ea2bc29fceb5caa916","hash":"68b83fbf41b24273930ad2388f276b0e0d7735dae901cfcb3b8df2a3444fb9bf"},{"id":1793725500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77703.9,"price_at_lock":77701,"sigma":0.0011205853853620271,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:05:04.841Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T17:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.385712535469323,"mom3":2,"rev20":1.5344369790061478,"book":-0.5852475456009518},"fable":{"p":0.39239106159107173,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 39%. Last candle -0.04%; three-candle momentum +0.22%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.5σ; order book 43/57 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.370 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77694.53,"band":87.07,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:05:04.841Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77773.3,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T17:10:04.940Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.36918862203442476,"delta":-48,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 39% likely; candle closed up (+0.09%). Brier 0.3692. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0609. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0303,"ret1":-0.0116,"mom3":0.0609,"rev20":0.0469,"book":-0.0176}},"prev_hash":"68b83fbf41b24273930ad2388f276b0e0d7735dae901cfcb3b8df2a3444fb9bf","hash":"f7ebf0fcb6d4b9e96f106151bef353c539b72a6a606fc1c8711d80fd0010b781"},{"id":1793725800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77773.3,"price_at_lock":77773,"sigma":0.0011268394175212198,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:10:04.940Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T17:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.7926010132133849,"mom3":0.8841819041257163,"rev20":2,"book":-0.45574995441441374},"fable":{"p":0.4053959296311054,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 41%. Last candle +0.09%; three-candle momentum +0.10%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.1σ; order book 44/56 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.386 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77765.01,"band":87.64,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:10:04.940Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77753.4,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T17:15:04.861Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.16434585976146815,"delta":34,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 59% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.1643. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0403. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0204,"ret1":-0.0159,"mom3":-0.0178,"rev20":-0.0403,"book":0.0094}},"prev_hash":"f7ebf0fcb6d4b9e96f106151bef353c539b72a6a606fc1c8711d80fd0010b781","hash":"2e78c3de15025f430484c4aae8a389783c76a855527109141ab4c889b35d799d"},{"id":1793726100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77753.4,"price_at_lock":77742,"sigma":0.0011253896120550736,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:15:04.861Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T17:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.22736292482681755,"mom3":0.18219322259183107,"rev20":1.627665630314228,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.5408527132266825,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 54%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum +0.02%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.6σ; order book 23/77 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.387 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77756.97,"band":87.5,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:15:04.861Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77686,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T17:20:04.858Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.29252165740466407,"delta":-17,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 46% likely; candle closed down (-0.09%). Brier 0.2925. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0543. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0272,"ret1":0.0063,"mom3":-0.0048,"rev20":-0.0438,"book":0.0543}},"prev_hash":"2e78c3de15025f430484c4aae8a389783c76a855527109141ab4c889b35d799d","hash":"e6e06843e419b2ad8b18c2f00933ba22fce73cd36383e73556cf59f2de9e7221"},{"id":1793726400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77686,"price_at_lock":77686,"sigma":0.0011469593979873422,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:20:04.858Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T17:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.7557748979552743,"mom3":-0.2001648289259841,"rev20":0.6775539736916353,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.5919184667764523,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 59%. Last candle -0.09%; three-candle momentum -0.02%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.7σ; order book 21/79 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.278 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77694.19,"band":89.1,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:20:04.858Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77696.3,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T17:25:04.836Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.16653053775808144,"delta":33,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 59% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.1665. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0407. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0203,"ret1":-0.0152,"mom3":-0.0039,"rev20":0.0141,"book":-0.0407}},"prev_hash":"e6e06843e419b2ad8b18c2f00933ba22fce73cd36383e73556cf59f2de9e7221","hash":"5a3b9885fb846ffcc22e3fdf997dcbae8119c8a22cd5f45388b1b7c021ebb23e"},{"id":1793726700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77696.3,"price_at_lock":77696,"sigma":0.0010018989309898787,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:25:04.836Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T17:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.13233372913501817,"mom3":-0.9882533490745974,"rev20":0.8461915281343798,"book":-1.9566318576267177},"fable":{"p":0.594831355935653,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 59%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum -0.10%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.8σ; order book 26/74 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.352 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77703.68,"band":77.84,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:25:04.836Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77692.7,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T17:30:04.936Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.35382434200424745,"delta":-42,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 41% likely; candle closed down (-0.00%). Brier 0.3538. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0584. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0299,"ret1":-0.0037,"mom3":0.0295,"rev20":-0.0249,"book":0.0584}},"prev_hash":"5a3b9885fb846ffcc22e3fdf997dcbae8119c8a22cd5f45388b1b7c021ebb23e","hash":"ccca19a3236e0641ac5c709a0a3058126a64b87f45a634dbfb7f914183aaeb74"},{"id":1793727000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77692.7,"price_at_lock":77679.1,"sigma":0.000983367395082911,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:30:04.936Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T17:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.04711794692074528,"mom3":-0.7937952354803682,"rev20":0.8001005607937383,"book":-0.5891898737110132},"fable":{"p":0.5124040005391324,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 51%. Last candle -0.00%; three-candle momentum -0.08%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.8σ; order book 43/57 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.230 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77693.65,"band":76.4,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:30:04.936Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77637.8,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T17:35:04.861Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.26255785976850715,"delta":-5,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 49% likely; candle closed down (-0.07%). Brier 0.2626. Largest weight change: bias -0.0257. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0257,"ret1":0.0014,"mom3":0.0205,"rev20":-0.0202,"book":0.0152}},"prev_hash":"ccca19a3236e0641ac5c709a0a3058126a64b87f45a634dbfb7f914183aaeb74","hash":"c6bcc435364ab2594c3bc35609570ed7436dea8686eb4e4e863e55f180d499d1"},{"id":1793727300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77637.8,"price_at_lock":77654.8,"sigma":0.0009861602008814994,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:35:04.861Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T17:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.7165469612365841,"mom3":-0.6290857465657084,"rev20":0.13154220346597287,"book":1.8226089652718152},"fable":{"p":0.512973782621394,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 51%. Last candle -0.07%; three-candle momentum -0.06%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.1σ; order book 73/27 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: order book (-0.193 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77638.79,"band":76.56,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:35:04.861Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77750.1,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T17:40:04.915Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.23719453641411314,"delta":5,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 51% likely; candle closed up (+0.14%). Brier 0.2372. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0445. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0243,"ret1":-0.0172,"mom3":-0.0152,"rev20":0.0035,"book":0.0445}},"prev_hash":"c6bcc435364ab2594c3bc35609570ed7436dea8686eb4e4e863e55f180d499d1","hash":"4bf23a38eba90a620911fbce8a6b94d94546a99202454314d3fe0905389bd80f"},{"id":1793727600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77750.1,"price_at_lock":77733,"sigma":0.001035100535342736,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:40:04.915Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T17:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.397410501530326,"mom3":0.669979375519084,"rev20":1.4839636924340696,"book":-1.9266939482410608},"fable":{"p":0.3503365194865656,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 35%. Last candle +0.14%; three-candle momentum +0.07%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.5σ; order book 26/74 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.452 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77738.06,"band":80.48,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:40:04.915Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77679.7,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T17:45:04.854Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.12273567688596074,"delta":51,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 65% likely; candle closed down (-0.09%). Brier 0.1227. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0338. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0176,"ret1":-0.0243,"mom3":-0.0116,"rev20":-0.0257,"book":0.0338}},"prev_hash":"4bf23a38eba90a620911fbce8a6b94d94546a99202454314d3fe0905389bd80f","hash":"910dda4aa83c6df4eb90143f2bebc049f18ea26fed89badbde19b898a10ba1dd"},{"id":1793727900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77679.7,"price_at_lock":77684.9,"sigma":0.0010120947710972957,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:45:04.854Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T17:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.894644552283618,"mom3":-0.1636554353342312,"rev20":0.561823211589326,"book":0.9806498766340389},"fable":{"p":0.5275498086265668,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 53%. Last candle -0.09%; three-candle momentum -0.02%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.6σ; order book 62/38 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: last candle (+0.219 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77681.87,"band":78.62,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:45:04.854Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77773,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T17:50:04.849Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2232091833287937,"delta":11,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 53% likely; candle closed up (+0.12%). Brier 0.2232. Largest weight change: bias +0.0235. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0235,"ret1":-0.0209,"mom3":-0.0037,"rev20":0.0136,"book":0.0232}},"prev_hash":"910dda4aa83c6df4eb90143f2bebc049f18ea26fed89badbde19b898a10ba1dd","hash":"cb4b9c69e7251704b5eafe2ec47b63a77180e469b2737f8c9c4fa1541535184b"},{"id":1793728200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77773,"price_at_lock":77772.9,"sigma":0.0010416431827010104,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:50:04.849Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T17:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.1530685535717833,"mom3":1.6724357359766588,"rev20":1.5964321527194398,"book":1.4034490230122583},"fable":{"p":0.3,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 30%. Last candle +0.12%; three-candle momentum +0.17%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.6σ; order book 68/32 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.506 in log-odds). Raw model said 28%, capped by policy.","expected_close":77756.8,"band":81.01,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:50:04.849Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77700.1,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T17:55:04.828Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 70% likely; candle closed down (-0.09%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0250. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0151,"ret1":-0.017,"mom3":-0.025,"rev20":-0.0236,"book":-0.021}},"prev_hash":"cb4b9c69e7251704b5eafe2ec47b63a77180e469b2737f8c9c4fa1541535184b","hash":"094bf949cd8295423756ab69e95d3a7498782bf29f7917d8afc31b54f22dcd89"},{"id":1793728500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77700.1,"price_at_lock":77697.6,"sigma":0.0010646650587056486,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:55:04.828Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T18:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.8804114367054428,"mom3":-0.6027457781579284,"rev20":0.6382123489250155,"book":-1.237765866672239},"fable":{"p":0.5620023216214651,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 56%. Last candle -0.09%; three-candle momentum -0.06%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.6σ; order book 35/65 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: last candle (+0.249 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77705.23,"band":82.72,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:55:04.828Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77648.9,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T18:00:04.851Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3158466095079167,"delta":-26,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 44% likely; candle closed down (-0.07%). Brier 0.3158. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0348. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0282,"ret1":0.025,"mom3":0.0171,"rev20":-0.0176,"book":0.0348}},"prev_hash":"094bf949cd8295423756ab69e95d3a7498782bf29f7917d8afc31b54f22dcd89","hash":"9f3ebd30ff4729e6192ff251fb0db42b2e48cbe0bc46c05c9f471b6aff30a54a"},{"id":1793728800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77648.9,"price_at_lock":77643.4,"sigma":0.0010541360003659243,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:00:04.851Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T18:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.6251032225960745,"mom3":-0.3749052367780351,"rev20":-0.03567258380256194,"book":-1.7458910618716557},"fable":{"p":0.5679874114634991,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 57%. Last candle -0.07%; three-candle momentum -0.04%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.0σ; order book 28/72 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: last candle (+0.161 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77654.46,"band":81.85,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:00:04.851Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77735.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T18:05:04.850Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.18663487665400805,"delta":25,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 57% likely; candle closed up (+0.11%). Brier 0.1866. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0377. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0215,"ret1":-0.0132,"mom3":-0.008,"rev20":-0.0004,"book":-0.0377}},"prev_hash":"9f3ebd30ff4729e6192ff251fb0db42b2e48cbe0bc46c05c9f471b6aff30a54a","hash":"ed53d920365e96c0dad30bddd038dc87f92ad4d43f3a9bf29009fae138d10e37"},{"id":1793729100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77735.5,"price_at_lock":77735.5,"sigma":0.0009984644922759048,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:05:04.850Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T18:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.116991734165104,"mom3":-0.481750251330861,"rev20":0.8815844233643815,"book":-0.5531351149081987},"fable":{"p":0.39030943216035663,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 39%. Last candle +0.11%; three-candle momentum -0.05%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.9σ; order book 43/57 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.316 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77726.99,"band":77.62,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:05:04.850Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77833.8,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T18:10:04.900Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3717225885126268,"delta":-49,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 39% likely; candle closed up (+0.13%). Brier 0.3717. Largest weight change: last-candle +0.0343. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0304,"ret1":0.0343,"mom3":-0.0145,"rev20":0.0272,"book":-0.0168}},"prev_hash":"ed53d920365e96c0dad30bddd038dc87f92ad4d43f3a9bf29009fae138d10e37","hash":"17928f714d50e68109d41c67786dd967ad91cbcde6fdd1834def1cc9b73b2aaf"},{"id":1793729400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77833.8,"price_at_lock":77833.8,"sigma":0.0009703450014496295,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:10:04.900Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T18:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.3031906293488689,"mom3":1.7734695231078277,"rev20":2,"book":-1.3506815890471302},"fable":{"p":0.3,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 30%. Last candle +0.13%; three-candle momentum +0.17%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.0σ; order book 33/67 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.662 in log-odds). Raw model said 25%, capped by policy.","expected_close":77818.69,"band":75.53,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:10:04.900Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77701,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T18:15:04.850Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 70% likely; candle closed down (-0.17%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0297. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0151,"ret1":-0.0193,"mom3":-0.0264,"rev20":-0.0297,"book":0.0203}},"prev_hash":"17928f714d50e68109d41c67786dd967ad91cbcde6fdd1834def1cc9b73b2aaf","hash":"1b3f4e7cdafe9070cda893450db3330b334a510d808897a0f441a9116b7e3762"},{"id":1793729700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77701,"price_at_lock":77704.7,"sigma":0.0010425915989431367,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:15:04.850Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T18:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.6364985311084441,"mom3":0.6461029211443966,"rev20":0.13463122464712995,"book":1.547121297340482},"fable":{"p":0.5768605059690658,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 58%. Last candle -0.17%; three-candle momentum +0.07%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.1σ; order book 69/31 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: last candle (+0.418 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77707.23,"band":81.01,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:15:04.850Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77680.3,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T18:20:04.851Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3327680433468866,"delta":-33,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 42% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.3328. Largest weight change: last-candle +0.0475. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0289,"ret1":0.0475,"mom3":-0.0184,"rev20":-0.0035,"book":-0.0446}},"prev_hash":"1b3f4e7cdafe9070cda893450db3330b334a510d808897a0f441a9116b7e3762","hash":"f9540a801b93640c30860a6a4e64a75d819ca10937803ee5b3caf1aabb9a9248"},{"id":1793730000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77680.3,"price_at_lock":77680.4,"sigma":0.0010260328955023759,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:20:04.851Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T18:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.25964648787622757,"mom3":-0.6900957541987545,"rev20":-0.17825530393667222,"book":-1.9604299180055933},"fable":{"p":0.6153596151815294,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 62%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.07%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.2σ; order book 25/75 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: momentum (+0.143 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77689.49,"band":79.7,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:20:04.851Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77693,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T18:25:04.828Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.14794822563330118,"delta":41,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 62% likely; candle closed up (+0.02%). Brier 0.1479. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0376. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0192,"ret1":-0.0048,"mom3":-0.0131,"rev20":-0.0031,"book":-0.0376}},"prev_hash":"f9540a801b93640c30860a6a4e64a75d819ca10937803ee5b3caf1aabb9a9248","hash":"fa25e3833e9e210a0bf0ec9ef96d13acaee9dae873a2be469347d53bc8c1f1ad"},{"id":1793730300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77693,"price_at_lock":77689.1,"sigma":0.0009679145405512943,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:25:04.828Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T18:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.16891017531819286,"mom3":-1.8690853039682123,"rev20":-0.16081233681080648,"book":0.6797104525100365},"fable":{"p":0.6110567304041953,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 61%. Last candle +0.02%; three-candle momentum -0.18%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.2σ; order book 58/42 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: momentum (+0.411 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77701.35,"band":75.2,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:25:04.828Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77671.5,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T18:30:04.952Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3733903277722654,"delta":-49,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 39% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.3734. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0573. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0306,"ret1":-0.0049,"mom3":0.0573,"rev20":0.0053,"book":-0.0207}},"prev_hash":"fa25e3833e9e210a0bf0ec9ef96d13acaee9dae873a2be469347d53bc8c1f1ad","hash":"b628a558c34b0594c2f9518f288af08a22f04f4200ae29a37274334a5f1b19a2"},{"id":1793730600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77671.5,"price_at_lock":77671.5,"sigma":0.0009651354219502842,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:30:04.952Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T18:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.2867268168392257,"mom3":-0.3933597521605266,"rev20":-0.5424465421844985,"book":1.1050570651420424},"fable":{"p":0.5601215307002482,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 56%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.04%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.5σ; order book 64/36 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.196 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77676.01,"band":74.96,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:30:04.952Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77869,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T18:35:04.853Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.1934930677534927,"delta":23,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 56% likely; candle closed up (+0.25%). Brier 0.1935. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0244. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0219,"ret1":-0.0061,"mom3":-0.0085,"rev20":-0.0116,"book":0.0244}},"prev_hash":"b628a558c34b0594c2f9518f288af08a22f04f4200ae29a37274334a5f1b19a2","hash":"6edd554178e312bcfa159decc95b7cc850580f500dded1ba13d86f31541c9e59"},{"id":1793730900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77869,"price_at_lock":77848,"sigma":0.0010104125759587798,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:35:04.853Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T18:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":2,"mom3":2,"rev20":1.8866647731703603,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.3,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 30%. Last candle +0.25%; three-candle momentum +0.24%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.9σ; order book 76/24 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.705 in log-odds). Raw model said 17%, capped by policy.","expected_close":77853.26,"band":78.68,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:35:04.853Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77744.1,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T18:40:04.850Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 70% likely; candle closed down (-0.16%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0299. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0151,"ret1":-0.0298,"mom3":-0.0298,"rev20":-0.0279,"book":-0.0299}},"prev_hash":"6edd554178e312bcfa159decc95b7cc850580f500dded1ba13d86f31541c9e59","hash":"89e98e79d4e29c30c903f8c0e489b45fcd60899cba1caee45b85fbb24c69de67"},{"id":1793731200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77744.1,"price_at_lock":77742.9,"sigma":0.0010713123526595028,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:40:04.850Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T18:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.4972065843115447,"mom3":0.617984192228225,"rev20":0.275390283059334,"book":-0.6507464137603975},"fable":{"p":0.5742178153779895,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 57%. Last candle -0.16%; three-candle momentum +0.07%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.3σ; order book 42/58 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: last candle (+0.380 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77750.28,"band":83.29,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:40:04.850Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77721.5,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T18:45:04.830Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3297260994974709,"delta":-32,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 43% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.3297. Largest weight change: last-candle +0.0432. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0288,"ret1":0.0432,"mom3":-0.0175,"rev20":-0.0075,"book":0.0188}},"prev_hash":"89e98e79d4e29c30c903f8c0e489b45fcd60899cba1caee45b85fbb24c69de67","hash":"015db1bd46e167da4bb8144d5f886540a42759aa8019fc47f6542383ab4f72e9"},{"id":1793731500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77721.5,"price_at_lock":77721.5,"sigma":0.0010688668119782768,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:45:04.830Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T18:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.27196774868946816,"mom3":0.6063309277372724,"rev20":-0.006620561892089739,"book":-1.2918744970516132},"fable":{"p":0.5284765468849781,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 53%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum +0.06%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.0σ; order book 34/66 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.148 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77723.87,"band":83.07,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:45:04.830Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77693.5,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T18:50:04.831Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2792874606074705,"delta":-12,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 47% likely; candle closed down (-0.04%). Brier 0.2793. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0343. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0265,"ret1":0.0074,"mom3":-0.0158,"rev20":0.0006,"book":0.0343}},"prev_hash":"015db1bd46e167da4bb8144d5f886540a42759aa8019fc47f6542383ab4f72e9","hash":"969ec981c9eece11ec6c11137483241cb1f8468769792b328711e396aa07ef9a"},{"id":1793731800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77693.5,"price_at_lock":77693.6,"sigma":0.0010519717794455587,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:50:04.831Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T18:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.342462299245954,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-0.30040165558111315,"book":-0.04596684717282861},"fable":{"p":0.662823432337312,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 66%. Last candle -0.04%; three-candle momentum -0.23%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.3σ; order book 49/51 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: momentum (+0.468 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77706.81,"band":81.73,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:50:04.831Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77608.4,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T18:55:04.849Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.43933490245541523,"delta":-76,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 34% likely; candle closed down (-0.11%). Brier 0.4393. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0665. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0332,"ret1":0.0116,"mom3":0.0665,"rev20":0.0104,"book":0.0016}},"prev_hash":"969ec981c9eece11ec6c11137483241cb1f8468769792b328711e396aa07ef9a","hash":"ee4cbdcdacf4671cbc552e0d7f65df355bee09f7ace55caeb462b68437cb26e5"},{"id":1793732100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77608.4,"price_at_lock":77606.3,"sigma":0.0010757947772359925,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:55:04.849Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T19:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.0181586193903587,"mom3":-1.6232535581349876,"rev20":-1.2249870536340055,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle -0.11%; three-candle momentum -0.17%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.2σ; order book 22/78 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.488 in log-odds). Raw model said 75%, capped by policy.","expected_close":77625.1,"band":83.49,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:55:04.849Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77588.9,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T19:00:04.849Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 30% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0701. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.035,"ret1":0.0358,"mom3":0.057,"rev20":0.0433,"book":0.0701}},"prev_hash":"ee4cbdcdacf4671cbc552e0d7f65df355bee09f7ace55caeb462b68437cb26e5","hash":"c07d88ef00c8d5c02c6b2e22e091d96a5794e8e1695a3f0bc10146e6dbdc52a1"},{"id":1793732400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77588.9,"price_at_lock":77584.2,"sigma":0.0010619238203672476,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T19:00:04.849Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T19:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.23660968571296004,"mom3":-1.607320438736044,"rev20":-1.4185423445158964,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.6635346918555294,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 66%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.17%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.4σ; order book 24/76 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.504 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77602.37,"band":82.39,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T19:00:04.849Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77643,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T19:05:04.824Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.11320890358475356,"delta":55,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 66% likely; candle closed up (+0.07%). Brier 0.1132. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0336. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0169,"ret1":-0.0038,"mom3":-0.0269,"rev20":-0.0235,"book":-0.0336}},"prev_hash":"c07d88ef00c8d5c02c6b2e22e091d96a5794e8e1695a3f0bc10146e6dbdc52a1","hash":"85b0c71cb161fad4fb03d611fd47b1c3edefdec571dc221303cd2fdfe46d0bd9"},{"id":1793732700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77643,"price_at_lock":77625.3,"sigma":0.0010741574612335649,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T19:05:04.824Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T19:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.6491270704913524,"mom3":-0.60449843147158,"rev20":-0.7223337829905222,"book":1.2321730268490825},"fable":{"p":0.5402825834363355,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 54%. Last candle +0.07%; three-candle momentum -0.06%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.7σ; order book 65/35 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.273 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77646.36,"band":83.4,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T19:05:04.824Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77553.3,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T19:10:04.846Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.29190526996464083,"delta":-17,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 46% likely; candle closed down (-0.12%). Brier 0.2919. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0332. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.027,"ret1":-0.0174,"mom3":0.0165,"rev20":0.0199,"book":-0.0332}},"prev_hash":"85b0c71cb161fad4fb03d611fd47b1c3edefdec571dc221303cd2fdfe46d0bd9","hash":"dfff1bda63f4e36d00472105fcf860d6bbd54408b02f95ab9dc8c7148f5e4666"},{"id":1793733000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77553.3,"price_at_lock":77526.1,"sigma":0.0011016469129081206,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T19:10:04.846Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T19:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.048691417574467,"mom3":-0.6438400814132141,"rev20":-1.6709132484805043,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle -0.12%; three-candle momentum -0.07%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.7σ; order book 21/79 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.599 in log-odds). Raw model said 72%, capped by policy.","expected_close":77570.39,"band":85.44,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T19:10:04.846Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77529.4,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T19:15:04.843Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 30% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0701. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0349,"ret1":0.0369,"mom3":0.0227,"rev20":0.0588,"book":0.0701}},"prev_hash":"dfff1bda63f4e36d00472105fcf860d6bbd54408b02f95ab9dc8c7148f5e4666","hash":"003bb12f03b622b48a236923ef40dd9de6f80a219c42f70ed2000b906880a0fe"},{"id":1793733300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77529.4,"price_at_lock":77529.4,"sigma":0.0010938760499802763,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T19:15:04.843Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T19:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.28172767088601736,"mom3":-0.7004432801320912,"rev20":-1.9003529109303714,"book":-1.9048904075583009},"fable":{"p":0.6426885375634138,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 64%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.08%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.9σ; order book 26/74 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.570 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77541.5,"band":84.81,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T19:15:04.843Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77582.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T19:20:04.849Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.12767148118857194,"delta":49,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 64% likely; candle closed up (+0.07%). Brier 0.1277. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0340. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.018,"ret1":-0.0049,"mom3":-0.0124,"rev20":-0.0337,"book":-0.034}},"prev_hash":"003bb12f03b622b48a236923ef40dd9de6f80a219c42f70ed2000b906880a0fe","hash":"743aef525a279b49c608038aa27e5b94b46dabb075983d60b7538d081e99073c"},{"id":1793733600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77582.5,"price_at_lock":77587.8,"sigma":0.0010529399205748773,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T19:20:04.849Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T19:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.6504658587378583,"mom3":-0.7394166843839566,"rev20":-1.2228127351331906,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.5579970932757057,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 56%. Last candle +0.07%; three-candle momentum -0.08%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.2σ; order book 88/12 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.408 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77587.24,"band":81.69,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T19:20:04.849Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77590.6,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T19:25:04.814Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.19536656955272522,"delta":22,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 56% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.1954. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0442. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0222,"ret1":0.0145,"mom3":-0.0162,"rev20":-0.0267,"book":0.0442}},"prev_hash":"743aef525a279b49c608038aa27e5b94b46dabb075983d60b7538d081e99073c","hash":"1b04359729de9d4dc72c2ab79f6944420b381a8bf7e2c2ea3a5afc731edb8bae"},{"id":1793733900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77590.6,"price_at_lock":77597,"sigma":0.001037556867695164,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T19:25:04.814Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T19:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.10062579843968257,"mom3":0.46371560061508765,"rev20":-1.0852355017010713,"book":-0.3308682275733467},"fable":{"p":0.5636729588988318,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 56%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum +0.05%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.1σ; order book 46/54 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.391 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77595.73,"band":80.5,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T19:25:04.814Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77610,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T19:30:04.847Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.19038128679610047,"delta":24,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 56% likely; candle closed up (+0.03%). Brier 0.1904. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0233. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0219,"ret1":0.0023,"mom3":0.0102,"rev20":-0.0233,"book":-0.0072}},"prev_hash":"1b04359729de9d4dc72c2ab79f6944420b381a8bf7e2c2ea3a5afc731edb8bae","hash":"243f2eb9af872315c04174de0a1ab85f1050730b8641e6da452bf39d351d4cde"}],"chain":{"head":"243f2eb9af872315c04174de0a1ab85f1050730b8641e6da452bf39d351d4cde","length":13749}}