{"rounds":[{"id":1789755300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":80869.7,"price_at_lock":80837,"sigma":0.0011797497898343471,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T18:15:57.056Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T18:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.581325391920909,"mom3":-1.5185721806562058,"rev20":0.17502510590907158,"book":-0.1475792751755983},"fable":{"p":0.5963535691991538,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 60%. Last candle -0.07%; three-candle momentum -0.18%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.2σ; order book 48/52 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (-0.084 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":80878.89,"band":95.41,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T18:15:57.056Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":80911.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T18:20:51.438Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.1629304410982623,"delta":35,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 60% likely; candle closed up (+0.05%). Brier 0.1629. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0306. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0197,"ret1":-0.0118,"mom3":-0.0306,"rev20":0.0036,"book":-0.0035}},"prev_hash":"06921faf1289cc7539d085aee77832d41be1d9043068f959861758fed088e27f","hash":"5eaf4eac0cfcad138b37865a089bf7bab5c08558df1cfc881ba0a368f36ea5f6"},{"id":1789755600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":80911.5,"price_at_lock":80887.5,"sigma":0.001071936686229214,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T18:20:51.438Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T18:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.482193459373327,"mom3":0.024574681712800153,"rev20":0.7287891183025393,"book":-1.7302974897287522},"fable":{"p":0.36001881874537134,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 36%. Last candle +0.05%; three-candle momentum +0.00%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.7σ; order book 28/72 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.974 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":80899.36,"band":86.73,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T18:20:51.438Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":80837.5,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T18:25:48.095Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.12961354985081255,"delta":48,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 64% likely; candle closed down (-0.09%). Brier 0.1296. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0306. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0185,"ret1":-0.0087,"mom3":-0.0004,"rev20":-0.013,"book":0.0306}},"prev_hash":"5eaf4eac0cfcad138b37865a089bf7bab5c08558df1cfc881ba0a368f36ea5f6","hash":"bc3526c75174170f155ad4c4f4c8860691b8f5aa3b9a9295f058df88ee0d056e"},{"id":1789755900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":80837.5,"price_at_lock":80909.4,"sigma":0.0010878068636935724,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T18:25:48.095Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.840755413700771,"mom3":-0.9960565573324637,"rev20":-0.027178181356963056,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle -0.09%; three-candle momentum -0.11%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.0σ; order book 87/13 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+1.187 in log-odds). Raw model said 85%, capped by policy.","expected_close":80855.09,"band":87.94,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T18:25:48.095Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":80994.7,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T18:31:14.957Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09000000000000002,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 70% likely; candle closed up (+0.19%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0294. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0146,"ret1":-0.0126,"mom3":-0.0149,"rev20":-0.0003,"book":0.0294}},"prev_hash":"bc3526c75174170f155ad4c4f4c8860691b8f5aa3b9a9295f058df88ee0d056e","hash":"96f90220b32bea21d582cc96ea8784df99d485d1545f2e4dd560d389fdc488d3"},{"id":1789756200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":80994.7,"price_at_lock":80941.3,"sigma":0.0010932267233817441,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T18:31:14.957Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T18:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.7788094520282942,"mom3":1.415025213824752,"rev20":1.6712283856197268,"book":-0.4260010378975318},"fable":{"p":0.4694794603438453,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 47%. Last candle +0.19%; three-candle momentum +0.15%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.7σ; order book 45/55 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.265 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":80992,"band":88.55,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T18:31:14.957Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81044.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T18:35:52.144Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.28145204299705767,"delta":-13,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 47% likely; candle closed up (+0.06%). Brier 0.2815. Largest weight change: last-candle +0.0472. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0261,"ret1":0.0472,"mom3":0.0376,"rev20":0.0444,"book":-0.0119}},"prev_hash":"96f90220b32bea21d582cc96ea8784df99d485d1545f2e4dd560d389fdc488d3","hash":"71db28e69351a71ad8cd0966aba1487b0f8da2bca855a311dccd6b2aad89a884"},{"id":1789756500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81044.5,"price_at_lock":80988.1,"sigma":0.0010738308327870652,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T18:35:52.144Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T18:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.5725809199155991,"mom3":1.5318218800365457,"rev20":2,"book":1.0496445846765632},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle +0.06%; three-candle momentum +0.16%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.2σ; order book 63/37 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.641 in log-odds). Raw model said 72%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81061.91,"band":87.03,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T18:35:52.144Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81121.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T18:40:57.425Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09000000000000002,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 70% likely; candle closed up (+0.10%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0301. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0145,"ret1":0.0085,"mom3":0.023,"rev20":0.0301,"book":0.0151}},"prev_hash":"71db28e69351a71ad8cd0966aba1487b0f8da2bca855a311dccd6b2aad89a884","hash":"c8da9c8c6d7e425301da7d71730fd7f4db9b2627ef5bbd138b5c7f49b3c99663"},{"id":1789756800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81121.5,"price_at_lock":81054.6,"sigma":0.0010484977762737465,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T18:40:57.425Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.9061491016040564,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":0.05845470078011703},"fable":{"p":0.6129130604310089,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 61%. Last candle +0.10%; three-candle momentum +0.35%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.0σ; order book 51/49 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.064 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81131.1,"band":85.06,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T18:40:57.425Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":80946.1,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T18:45:56.840Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.37566241964690555,"delta":-50,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 39% likely; candle closed down (-0.22%). Brier 0.3757. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0613. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0311,"ret1":-0.0278,"mom3":-0.0613,"rev20":-0.0613,"book":-0.0024}},"prev_hash":"c8da9c8c6d7e425301da7d71730fd7f4db9b2627ef5bbd138b5c7f49b3c99663","hash":"83908a1ebde99bcaa0a88ce0a0dba32b22b3641b2a478b982d52b9c43ce1c528"},{"id":1789757100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":80946.1,"price_at_lock":80973,"sigma":0.0011639517791078924,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T18:45:56.840Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T18:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.8576274845331229,"mom3":-0.513112709810488,"rev20":0.8148471568306407,"book":1.529657325168141},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle -0.22%; three-candle momentum -0.06%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.8σ; order book 69/31 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.954 in log-odds). Raw model said 79%, capped by policy.","expected_close":80964.94,"band":94.22,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T18:45:56.840Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81038.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T18:51:00.167Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09000000000000002,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 70% likely; candle closed up (+0.11%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: last-candle -0.0279. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0145,"ret1":-0.0279,"mom3":-0.0076,"rev20":0.0123,"book":0.0223}},"prev_hash":"83908a1ebde99bcaa0a88ce0a0dba32b22b3641b2a478b982d52b9c43ce1c528","hash":"a1591c871c4a35c35cd5831de90a36bef3a0e1bba427ff803956ce772754cc0b"},{"id":1789757400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81038.5,"price_at_lock":80991.1,"sigma":0.001164081208903688,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T18:51:00.167Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T18:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.9806019743048516,"mom3":-0.06064281881337956,"rev20":1.6674519142814577,"book":-1.345932926576675},"fable":{"p":0.3720976080855092,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 37%. Last candle +0.11%; three-candle momentum -0.01%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.7σ; order book 33/67 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.870 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81026.43,"band":94.34,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T18:51:00.167Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81012.9,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T18:55:52.951Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.13845662994295718,"delta":45,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 63% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.1385. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0309. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0191,"ret1":-0.0182,"mom3":0.0012,"rev20":-0.0309,"book":0.0244}},"prev_hash":"a1591c871c4a35c35cd5831de90a36bef3a0e1bba427ff803956ce772754cc0b","hash":"95e044bab980da2118fe641e520f642df66f72ec0bc5580ad930a1318f56fd74"},{"id":1789757700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81012.9,"price_at_lock":80967.7,"sigma":0.0011387254635099927,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T18:55:52.951Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.2774147441183241,"mom3":-1.1737576437438013,"rev20":1.364806385616127,"book":-0.9591383054166774},"fable":{"p":0.44658496427281774,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 45%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.13%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.4σ; order book 38/62 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.643 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81007.97,"band":92.25,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T18:55:52.951Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":80945.3,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T19:01:46.248Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.1994381303145539,"delta":20,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 55% likely; candle closed down (-0.08%). Brier 0.1994. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0304. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0228,"ret1":0.0062,"mom3":0.0263,"rev20":-0.0304,"book":0.0207}},"prev_hash":"95e044bab980da2118fe641e520f642df66f72ec0bc5580ad930a1318f56fd74","hash":"040e1324a301e3a301241fee30ac574c1b654c04bf55b7fba655e4e95d618c79"},{"id":1789758000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":80945.3,"price_at_lock":80920.6,"sigma":0.0011337875622696788,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T19:01:46.248Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T19:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.7359712149800726,"mom3":-0.00779150469223325,"rev20":0.5665323144218232,"book":1.8803442310424163},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle -0.08%; three-candle momentum -0.00%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.6σ; order book 74/26 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+1.300 in log-odds). Raw model said 84%, capped by policy.","expected_close":80963.65,"band":91.77,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T19:01:46.248Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":80980.6,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T19:05:52.362Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09000000000000002,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 70% likely; candle closed up (+0.04%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0275. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0146,"ret1":-0.011,"mom3":0,"rev20":0.0086,"book":0.0275}},"prev_hash":"040e1324a301e3a301241fee30ac574c1b654c04bf55b7fba655e4e95d618c79","hash":"e7fe987ff6060d6b227d08a3f130270ee6d5320a16fd03c73056b06d4e2357bd"},{"id":1789758300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":80980.6,"price_at_lock":81012.9,"sigma":0.0011221576806871212,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T19:05:52.362Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T19:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.38862361029408865,"mom3":-0.6364856614342663,"rev20":0.8431814549344553,"book":1.3143705523086873},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle +0.04%; three-candle momentum -0.07%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.8σ; order book 66/34 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.945 in log-odds). Raw model said 79%, capped by policy.","expected_close":80998.77,"band":90.87,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T19:05:52.362Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81094.6,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T19:10:50.972Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09000000000000002,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 70% likely; candle closed up (+0.14%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0190. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0145,"ret1":0.0059,"mom3":-0.0095,"rev20":0.0128,"book":0.019}},"prev_hash":"e7fe987ff6060d6b227d08a3f130270ee6d5320a16fd03c73056b06d4e2357bd","hash":"0acf94648e503da4afeb2136c9736ae4721b337e16f464028fc03c6800baaf59"},{"id":1789758600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81094.6,"price_at_lock":81094,"sigma":0.0011532975400840601,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T19:10:50.972Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T19:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.2206256598963339,"mom3":0.8752351368956461,"rev20":1.8590725385856666,"book":1.2216321478264338},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle +0.14%; three-candle momentum +0.10%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.9σ; order book 65/35 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.901 in log-odds). Raw model said 74%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81113.31,"band":93.53,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T19:10:50.972Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81204.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T19:16:03.883Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09000000000000002,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 70% likely; candle closed up (+0.14%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0280. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0145,"ret1":0.0183,"mom3":0.0132,"rev20":0.028,"book":0.0176}},"prev_hash":"0acf94648e503da4afeb2136c9736ae4721b337e16f464028fc03c6800baaf59","hash":"cca95f63b1e48fe03d776c51c0e99721dbfd1b749b220db85e46c11ddc816c0c"},{"id":1789758900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81204.5,"price_at_lock":81292.2,"sigma":0.001073873285394291,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T19:16:03.883Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T19:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.2619807136674108,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":-0.6131909707931816},"fable":{"p":0.4247782669115349,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 42%. Last candle +0.14%; three-candle momentum +0.32%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.9σ; order book 42/58 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.463 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81197.94,"band":87.2,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T19:16:03.883Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81221.3,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T19:20:54.159Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3308800422172973,"delta":-32,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 42% likely; candle closed up (+0.02%). Brier 0.3309. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0576. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0283,"ret1":0.0363,"mom3":0.0576,"rev20":0.0576,"book":-0.0184}},"prev_hash":"cca95f63b1e48fe03d776c51c0e99721dbfd1b749b220db85e46c11ddc816c0c","hash":"ff128237dc7dab7ebba9e6c74a93c74759556a37f3facaea7ad5fc928c378d4a"},{"id":1789759200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81221.3,"price_at_lock":81228.8,"sigma":0.001065486936626916,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T19:20:54.159Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T19:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.1941695194054754,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":-1.1748683634289667},"fable":{"p":0.3929513724338485,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 39%. Last candle +0.02%; three-candle momentum +0.30%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.8σ; order book 35/65 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.866 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81212.04,"band":86.54,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T19:20:54.159Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81146.2,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T19:25:50.543Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.15441078109764508,"delta":38,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 61% likely; candle closed down (-0.09%). Brier 0.1544. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0393. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0202,"ret1":-0.0038,"mom3":-0.0393,"rev20":-0.0393,"book":0.0223}},"prev_hash":"ff128237dc7dab7ebba9e6c74a93c74759556a37f3facaea7ad5fc928c378d4a","hash":"3179537e0c7b0892b5a8c85843ac0647ddb0027dce2b630c18bc7afde5d563c2"},{"id":1789759500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81146.2,"price_at_lock":81183.2,"sigma":0.0010814111335222978,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T19:25:50.543Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T19:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.8550256909060274,"mom3":0.5894688339653555,"rev20":1.705772158703387,"book":1.2610608666572984},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle -0.09%; three-candle momentum +0.06%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.7σ; order book 66/34 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.958 in log-odds). Raw model said 78%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81163.75,"band":87.75,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T19:25:50.543Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81264,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T19:31:16.474Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09000000000000002,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 70% likely; candle closed up (+0.15%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0257. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0145,"ret1":-0.0129,"mom3":0.0089,"rev20":0.0257,"book":0.0182}},"prev_hash":"3179537e0c7b0892b5a8c85843ac0647ddb0027dce2b630c18bc7afde5d563c2","hash":"960ea0c0ce7c20be71e87b22442cd9b08d5788f527cb7fea5ea314ae4345b2cc"},{"id":1789759800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81264,"price_at_lock":81186.4,"sigma":0.0011029952960610549,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T19:31:16.474Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T19:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.316144105584702,"mom3":0.6654167473276978,"rev20":2,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.3,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 30%. Last candle +0.15%; three-candle momentum +0.07%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.8σ; order book 10/90 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-1.555 in log-odds). Raw model said 24%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81246.07,"band":89.63,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T19:31:16.474Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81127.5,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T19:35:53.450Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 70% likely; candle closed down (-0.17%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0300. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0155,"ret1":-0.0198,"mom3":-0.0099,"rev20":-0.03,"book":0.0292}},"prev_hash":"960ea0c0ce7c20be71e87b22442cd9b08d5788f527cb7fea5ea314ae4345b2cc","hash":"d2d61c05f03a0abc85445de323dcc3f5671c0ea60f315dcca5f1e4b7934e915b"},{"id":1789760100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81127.5,"price_at_lock":81123.5,"sigma":0.0011809947690913775,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T19:35:53.450Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T19:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.4222845154849841,"mom3":-0.9759942612016845,"rev20":1.013463231243161,"book":-1.650872449171119},"fable":{"p":0.3,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 30%. Last candle -0.17%; three-candle momentum -0.12%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.0σ; order book 29/71 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-1.332 in log-odds). Raw model said 30%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81108.34,"band":95.81,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T19:35:53.450Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81079.7,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T19:40:53.065Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 70% likely; candle closed down (-0.06%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0240. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0155,"ret1":0.0213,"mom3":0.0147,"rev20":-0.0151,"book":0.024}},"prev_hash":"d2d61c05f03a0abc85445de323dcc3f5671c0ea60f315dcca5f1e4b7934e915b","hash":"21528932912c54bad2c13984d46810a62aa34c23efc72acea43fe7f1e5af446a"},{"id":1789760400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81079.7,"price_at_lock":81179.5,"sigma":0.0011245089460614934,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T19:40:53.065Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T19:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.5239584982194472,"mom3":-0.7267223947163198,"rev20":0.5041526858483888,"book":-0.22185188938974326},"fable":{"p":0.5644114520533383,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 56%. Last candle -0.06%; three-candle momentum -0.08%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.5σ; order book 47/53 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (-0.184 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81085.57,"band":91.17,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T19:40:53.065Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81246.3,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T19:46:01.730Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.1897373831022812,"delta":24,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 56% likely; candle closed up (+0.21%). Brier 0.1897. Largest weight change: bias +0.0213. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0213,"ret1":-0.0114,"mom3":-0.0158,"rev20":0.0111,"book":-0.0057}},"prev_hash":"21528932912c54bad2c13984d46810a62aa34c23efc72acea43fe7f1e5af446a","hash":"aa7e5acd7b0aeaeb9f33f2ad07bd8aa856f1fb0450a231d6f478d4fc01fe1f48"},{"id":1789760700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81246.3,"price_at_lock":81179.3,"sigma":0.001161547708534201,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T19:46:01.730Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T19:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.768991766580409,"mom3":-0.18435597358547653,"rev20":2,"book":-0.5232460391241572},"fable":{"p":0.47917003803058683,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 48%. Last candle +0.21%; three-candle momentum -0.02%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.1σ; order book 43/57 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.432 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81244.33,"band":94.37,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T19:46:01.730Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81299.2,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T19:50:51.551Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2712638492850604,"delta":-9,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 48% likely; candle closed up (+0.07%). Brier 0.2713. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0522. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0255,"ret1":0.0461,"mom3":-0.0048,"rev20":0.0522,"book":-0.0145}},"prev_hash":"aa7e5acd7b0aeaeb9f33f2ad07bd8aa856f1fb0450a231d6f478d4fc01fe1f48","hash":"6b5f9e4e99e907c1aca750072be30a6226b82a775497640c44b1f5f72e4541b6"},{"id":1789761000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81299.2,"price_at_lock":81335.3,"sigma":0.001165530677690404,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T19:50:51.551Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T19:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.5586352945756233,"mom3":1.8160645002819735,"rev20":2,"book":-1.8752840428828084},"fable":{"p":0.3,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 30%. Last candle +0.07%; three-candle momentum +0.21%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.4σ; order book 27/73 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-1.520 in log-odds). Raw model said 24%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81280.25,"band":94.76,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T19:50:51.551Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81134.1,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T19:55:48.438Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 70% likely; candle closed down (-0.20%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0300. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0155,"ret1":-0.0084,"mom3":-0.0272,"rev20":-0.03,"book":0.0273}},"prev_hash":"6b5f9e4e99e907c1aca750072be30a6226b82a775497640c44b1f5f72e4541b6","hash":"553cdb9d51fb395cf478e142b9590a7e4173ef7a8c40f2035d1413d9f7a739c7"},{"id":1789761300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81134.1,"price_at_lock":81195.4,"sigma":0.001252088544280256,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T19:55:48.438Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T20:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.6219062938953834,"mom3":0.539182806964714,"rev20":0.5080154610804664,"book":1.9759844739472878},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle -0.20%; three-candle momentum +0.07%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.5σ; order book 75/25 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+1.656 in log-odds). Raw model said 88%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81154.42,"band":101.59,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T19:55:48.438Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81211.3,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T20:01:41.831Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09000000000000002,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 70% likely; candle closed up (+0.10%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0288. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0145,"ret1":-0.0244,"mom3":0.0082,"rev20":0.0077,"book":0.0288}},"prev_hash":"553cdb9d51fb395cf478e142b9590a7e4173ef7a8c40f2035d1413d9f7a739c7","hash":"13d60abb6fe752d7601cbc97356e390bc93cde166a729d6ed6f54d9a61bab226"},{"id":1789761600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81211.3,"price_at_lock":81100.8,"sigma":0.0012617589935293994,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T20:01:41.831Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T20:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.7541148072478954,"mom3":-0.3393299187966149,"rev20":1.1119904518303931,"book":1.8681212006416361},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle +0.10%; three-candle momentum -0.04%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.1σ; order book 73/27 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+1.619 in log-odds). Raw model said 89%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81231.79,"band":102.47,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T20:01:41.831Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81187.7,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T20:05:48.542Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 30% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0663. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0355,"ret1":-0.0264,"mom3":0.0119,"rev20":-0.0389,"book":-0.0663}},"prev_hash":"13d60abb6fe752d7601cbc97356e390bc93cde166a729d6ed6f54d9a61bab226","hash":"b231bad0a6b2baec96b3713ca4e83467c3acf09fa90ddef83bea5a4140954831"},{"id":1789761900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81187.7,"price_at_lock":81225.7,"sigma":0.0012417215994767886,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T20:05:48.542Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T20:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.2340298772102152,"mom3":-1.1031934246096409,"rev20":0.7215384820642874,"book":0.0647086493470264},"fable":{"p":0.631867294708902,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 63%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.14%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.7σ; order book 51/49 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: momentum (+0.068 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81200.99,"band":100.81,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T20:05:48.542Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":80978.4,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T20:10:50.220Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.39925627812274644,"delta":-60,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 37% likely; candle closed down (-0.26%). Brier 0.3993. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0349. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0321,"ret1":0.0074,"mom3":0.0349,"rev20":-0.0227,"book":-0.0028}},"prev_hash":"b231bad0a6b2baec96b3713ca4e83467c3acf09fa90ddef83bea5a4140954831","hash":"eb28cdf46b1db456aa68ab9f2ab3a690b02b1c85af3b527d6c6f09f6b0da48bd"},{"id":1789762200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":80978.4,"price_at_lock":81024.3,"sigma":0.0013160793509360252,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T20:10:50.220Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T20:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.9588307584856937,"mom3":-1.4566488905961612,"rev20":-1.2721922079875994,"book":-1.2363166314300185},"fable":{"p":0.41402482377318184,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 41%. Last candle -0.26%; three-candle momentum -0.19%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.3σ; order book 35/65 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.986 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":80969.24,"band":106.57,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T20:10:50.220Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81076,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T20:16:01.130Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3433669071540506,"delta":-37,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 41% likely; candle closed up (+0.12%). Brier 0.3434. Largest weight change: last-candle -0.0574. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0288,"ret1":-0.0574,"mom3":-0.0427,"rev20":-0.0372,"book":-0.037}},"prev_hash":"eb28cdf46b1db456aa68ab9f2ab3a690b02b1c85af3b527d6c6f09f6b0da48bd","hash":"3c5c79de30a2df2f744b6517238421a1312c28cace6a2fd56dccb62d7983de81"},{"id":1789762500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81076,"price_at_lock":81121.5,"sigma":0.0013362135364572796,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T20:16:01.130Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T20:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.9019963062044062,"mom3":-1.2447987893472325,"rev20":-0.3670608956008768,"book":1.2116425371879342},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle +0.12%; three-candle momentum -0.17%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.4σ; order book 65/35 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.922 in log-odds). Raw model said 82%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81097.67,"band":108.33,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T20:16:01.130Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81210.1,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T20:24:43.756Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09000000000000002,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 70% likely; candle closed up (+0.17%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0186. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0145,"ret1":0.0136,"mom3":-0.0186,"rev20":-0.0054,"book":0.0174}},"prev_hash":"3c5c79de30a2df2f744b6517238421a1312c28cace6a2fd56dccb62d7983de81","hash":"90b88c0398243099ae65c81bf7d44320a5f7dcd348d27864e9e56ad3f7beba9a"},{"id":1789762800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81210.1,"price_at_lock":81093.8,"sigma":0.0013691054285822001,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T20:24:43.756Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T20:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.2080907842198527,"mom3":0.2054528497124127,"rev20":0.8093217971881232,"book":-1.3665907443991172},"fable":{"p":0.31736929702953454,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 32%. Last candle +0.17%; three-candle momentum +0.03%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.8σ; order book 33/67 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.14%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-1.063 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81189.79,"band":111.19,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T20:24:43.756Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81079.5,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T20:27:01.619Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.10072327069702092,"delta":60,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 68% likely; candle closed down (-0.16%). Brier 0.1007. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0209. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0164,"ret1":-0.0191,"mom3":-0.0032,"rev20":-0.0127,"book":0.0209}},"prev_hash":"90b88c0398243099ae65c81bf7d44320a5f7dcd348d27864e9e56ad3f7beba9a","hash":"6b2fd302afe98bcbe4e9c7682540ffe6f6fd9aecc08f1a434d22a8d08497c911"},{"id":1789763100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81079.5,"price_at_lock":81035.2,"sigma":0.0013289713101501091,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T20:27:01.619Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T20:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.2100895936692082,"mom3":0.9413965243850354,"rev20":-0.4395016183854765,"book":0.86702921266944},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle -0.16%; three-candle momentum +0.13%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.4σ; order book 61/39 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.693 in log-odds). Raw model said 78%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81101.05,"band":107.75,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T20:27:01.619Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81020,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T20:31:07.228Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 30% likely; candle closed down (-0.07%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: last-candle +0.0424. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0355,"ret1":0.0424,"mom3":-0.0329,"rev20":0.0156,"book":-0.0311}},"prev_hash":"6b2fd302afe98bcbe4e9c7682540ffe6f6fd9aecc08f1a434d22a8d08497c911","hash":"83f0b051314509ba77d1edb94f3d2ec5bc4151e9a7067b868ddfa85beb46201f"},{"id":1789763400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81020,"price_at_lock":81031.7,"sigma":0.0013171007628254479,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T20:31:07.228Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T20:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.557168945668308,"mom3":-0.5223733556182091,"rev20":-0.9916606932186012,"book":-0.4232213580173349},"fable":{"p":0.5863327972325982,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 59%. Last candle -0.07%; three-candle momentum -0.07%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.0σ; order book 45/55 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (-0.325 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81029.21,"band":106.71,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T20:31:07.228Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81027.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T20:35:48.023Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.17112055464540668,"delta":32,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 59% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.1711. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0204. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0202,"ret1":-0.0115,"mom3":-0.0107,"rev20":-0.0204,"book":-0.0095}},"prev_hash":"83f0b051314509ba77d1edb94f3d2ec5bc4151e9a7067b868ddfa85beb46201f","hash":"d241aee15261e13dfa11ba9ec839860c41a6cd6c34789c1d735dca21b27b9872"},{"id":1789763700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81027.5,"price_at_lock":81027.5,"sigma":0.001315373329781145,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T20:35:48.023Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T20:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.0703752567973147,"mom3":-1.7101245777626815,"rev20":-0.9295122150209624,"book":-0.4498646996302888},"fable":{"p":0.6255737149708679,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 63%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum -0.22%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.9σ; order book 44/56 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (-0.341 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81040.88,"band":106.58,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T20:35:48.023Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81004.7,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T20:40:49.528Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.39134247286245266,"delta":-57,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 37% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.3913. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0536. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0317,"ret1":-0.0022,"mom3":0.0536,"rev20":0.0292,"book":0.0133}},"prev_hash":"d241aee15261e13dfa11ba9ec839860c41a6cd6c34789c1d735dca21b27b9872","hash":"3bc382ca3a3ce91aec049e90f49500685cff2ac21dd93f49d70e358af7ed0c78"},{"id":1789764000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81004.7,"price_at_lock":80988.6,"sigma":0.0013030890188414986,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T20:40:49.528Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T20:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.21593762601496921,"mom3":-0.708058960952482,"rev20":-1.1819994531253208,"book":-0.007606169448553178},"fable":{"p":0.6600274660531703,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 66%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.09%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.2σ; order book 50/50 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.172 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81021.59,"band":105.56,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T20:40:49.528Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81157.9,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T20:45:55.389Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.11558132383822826,"delta":54,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 66% likely; candle closed up (+0.19%). Brier 0.1156. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0199. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0166,"ret1":-0.0036,"mom3":-0.012,"rev20":-0.0199,"book":-0.0009}},"prev_hash":"3bc382ca3a3ce91aec049e90f49500685cff2ac21dd93f49d70e358af7ed0c78","hash":"eaa6e8ab55a003f076572bc6b2cab7bbb46efbad8da96b860bf88434d794524b"},{"id":1789764300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81157.9,"price_at_lock":81174.4,"sigma":0.0013625778602992435,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T20:45:55.389Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T20:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.3879928191244215,"mom3":1.2494200308467265,"rev20":0.17524808243453677,"book":0.9840986380852603},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle +0.19%; three-candle momentum +0.17%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.2σ; order book 62/38 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.14%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.758 in log-odds). Raw model said 73%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81180.02,"band":110.58,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T20:45:55.389Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81088.9,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T20:50:49.966Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 30% likely; candle closed down (-0.09%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: last-candle -0.0485. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0354,"ret1":-0.0485,"mom3":-0.0436,"rev20":-0.006,"book":-0.0352}},"prev_hash":"eaa6e8ab55a003f076572bc6b2cab7bbb46efbad8da96b860bf88434d794524b","hash":"ca8aefd14442b8460fb5e88dc5daafab293e7c277c8efb3d6080724d6bae6973"},{"id":1789764600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81088.9,"price_at_lock":81127.3,"sigma":0.0013438112909200028,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T20:50:49.966Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T20:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.6326740243500195,"mom3":0.5653084209949019,"rev20":-0.4525173928974631,"book":0.25067229309324546},"fable":{"p":0.6578789851758683,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 66%. Last candle -0.09%; three-candle momentum +0.08%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.5σ; order book 53/47 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.184 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81106.1,"band":108.97,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T20:50:49.966Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81089.8,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T20:55:48.816Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.11704678878429375,"delta":53,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 66% likely; candle closed up (+0.00%). Brier 0.1170. Largest weight change: bias +0.0167. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0167,"ret1":-0.0107,"mom3":0.0098,"rev20":-0.0076,"book":0.0036}},"prev_hash":"ca8aefd14442b8460fb5e88dc5daafab293e7c277c8efb3d6080724d6bae6973","hash":"06f66ef1f8a636d855d86d4a3f49db1c8f1c06e9f996f49281440ee67798774a"},{"id":1789764900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81089.8,"price_at_lock":81099.9,"sigma":0.0013073400525043845,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T20:55:48.816Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T21:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.008489703709497344,"mom3":0.8048041639034145,"rev20":-0.4026199349021353,"book":-0.4104916244001006},"fable":{"p":0.5241296838213193,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 52%. Last candle +0.00%; three-candle momentum +0.11%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.4σ; order book 45/55 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (-0.303 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81092.36,"band":106.01,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T20:55:48.816Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81119.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T21:01:26.938Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.22645255781999754,"delta":9,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 52% likely; candle closed up (+0.04%). Brier 0.2265. Largest weight change: bias +0.0234. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0234,"ret1":0.0003,"mom3":0.0193,"rev20":-0.0094,"book":-0.0105}},"prev_hash":"06f66ef1f8a636d855d86d4a3f49db1c8f1c06e9f996f49281440ee67798774a","hash":"611a2d3cba418f6dcffdc4bcf44d9a7e75a97035edb7c43e1606d3b7fbf721f1"},{"id":1789765200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81119.5,"price_at_lock":81102.2,"sigma":0.001309486346651054,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T21:01:26.938Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T21:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.2796979256117346,"mom3":-0.36108429395548525,"rev20":-0.07450446603221927,"book":-1.3093947373095467},"fable":{"p":0.3835991638125226,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 38%. Last candle +0.04%; three-candle momentum -0.05%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.1σ; order book 34/66 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.954 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81107.14,"band":106.22,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T21:01:26.938Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81196.2,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T21:05:48.529Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.37994999085262127,"delta":-52,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 38% likely; candle closed up (+0.09%). Brier 0.3799. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0411. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0304,"ret1":0.0087,"mom3":-0.011,"rev20":-0.0021,"book":-0.0411}},"prev_hash":"611a2d3cba418f6dcffdc4bcf44d9a7e75a97035edb7c43e1606d3b7fbf721f1","hash":"f0738b7fa357c8adcb8b92365cfeafe0db64063c3907a0879d721efb8adf96f4"},{"id":1789765500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81196.2,"price_at_lock":81173.1,"sigma":0.0013113085847060873,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T21:05:48.529Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T21:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.721049689936751,"mom3":1.0088229485500848,"rev20":0.6230592317323895,"book":-1.128903984661342},"fable":{"p":0.35582652834513945,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 36%. Last candle +0.09%; three-candle momentum +0.13%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.6σ; order book 36/64 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.776 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81180.85,"band":106.47,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T21:05:48.529Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81168.5,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T21:10:51.527Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.12661251827415432,"delta":49,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 64% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.1266. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0194. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0183,"ret1":-0.0127,"mom3":-0.0178,"rev20":-0.0109,"book":0.0194}},"prev_hash":"f0738b7fa357c8adcb8b92365cfeafe0db64063c3907a0879d721efb8adf96f4","hash":"2fc40dffa5a6e1d64acd5fe09da2739d4f3991289048b01063007395a96242d6"},{"id":1789765800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81168.5,"price_at_lock":81212.2,"sigma":0.001271856077253575,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T21:10:51.527Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T21:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.26822922508836566,"mom3":0.7631604790215105,"rev20":0.4202385068942992,"book":1.612446041508304},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum +0.10%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.4σ; order book 70/30 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+1.140 in log-odds). Raw model said 81%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81189.15,"band":103.23,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T21:10:51.527Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81271.3,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T21:15:50.322Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09000000000000002,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 70% likely; candle closed up (+0.13%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0235. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0145,"ret1":-0.0039,"mom3":0.0116,"rev20":0.0065,"book":0.0235}},"prev_hash":"2fc40dffa5a6e1d64acd5fe09da2739d4f3991289048b01063007395a96242d6","hash":"3781f5f9752471164d8de68cab790d0133732e23abfcc023e94ef273c10a2a51"},{"id":1789766100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81271.3,"price_at_lock":81212.7,"sigma":0.0012458452401610128,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T21:15:50.322Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T21:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.0165798499668515,"mom3":1.5016879989613128,"rev20":1.3748743564852957,"book":-1.2938627834938232},"fable":{"p":0.3,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 30%. Last candle +0.13%; three-candle momentum +0.19%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.4σ; order book 34/66 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.945 in log-odds). Raw model said 26%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81251.05,"band":101.25,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T21:15:50.322Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81119.3,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T21:20:52.317Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 70% likely; candle closed down (-0.19%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0224. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0155,"ret1":-0.0151,"mom3":-0.0224,"rev20":-0.0204,"book":0.0187}},"prev_hash":"3781f5f9752471164d8de68cab790d0133732e23abfcc023e94ef273c10a2a51","hash":"427b1d3b7c9f5459074eced644b662afd0aed301bcc4f5247c215f86250eecd7"},{"id":1789766400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81119.3,"price_at_lock":81155.4,"sigma":0.0013103475125956791,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T21:20:52.317Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T21:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.4273152060627874,"mom3":-0.7211268183227251,"rev20":-0.14118535706733626,"book":1.8537420740390271},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle -0.19%; three-candle momentum -0.09%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.1σ; order book 73/27 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+1.388 in log-odds). Raw model said 90%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81140.56,"band":106.29,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T21:20:52.317Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81193.4,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T21:25:44.626Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09000000000000002,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 70% likely; candle closed up (+0.09%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0271. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0145,"ret1":-0.0213,"mom3":-0.0107,"rev20":-0.0019,"book":0.0271}},"prev_hash":"427b1d3b7c9f5459074eced644b662afd0aed301bcc4f5247c215f86250eecd7","hash":"7d42513974f0b346e0b64d4cdc3c5e0076ea0b1b20b177b5af29957576aed42f"},{"id":1789766700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81193.4,"price_at_lock":81207.7,"sigma":0.001243887586760229,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T21:25:44.626Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T21:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.7343665381716767,"mom3":0.24897077648380975,"rev20":0.6117302120253161,"book":-0.8179254267836835},"fable":{"p":0.39384715572851975,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 39%. Last candle +0.09%; three-candle momentum +0.03%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.6σ; order book 40/60 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.635 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81182.68,"band":101,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T21:25:44.626Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81186.4,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T21:31:01.719Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.15511558207544487,"delta":38,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 61% likely; candle closed down (-0.01%). Brier 0.1551. Largest weight change: bias -0.0202. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0202,"ret1":-0.0143,"mom3":-0.0047,"rev20":-0.0118,"book":0.0153}},"prev_hash":"7d42513974f0b346e0b64d4cdc3c5e0076ea0b1b20b177b5af29957576aed42f","hash":"56f9e7edb44828917972cb181eb6c13a5462ad1236a48956bb2824050bc14d09"},{"id":1789767000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81186.4,"price_at_lock":81200.7,"sigma":0.0012339885849318747,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T21:31:01.719Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T21:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.06986604668677687,"mom3":-0.8452455928787338,"rev20":0.6030951063160871,"book":0.793075017939319},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle -0.01%; three-candle momentum -0.10%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.6σ; order book 60/40 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.628 in log-odds). Raw model said 75%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81206.44,"band":100.18,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T21:31:01.719Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81151.2,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T21:35:45.817Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 30% likely; candle closed down (-0.04%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: bias -0.0355. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0355,"ret1":0.0026,"mom3":0.0297,"rev20":-0.0209,"book":-0.0285}},"prev_hash":"56f9e7edb44828917972cb181eb6c13a5462ad1236a48956bb2824050bc14d09","hash":"00da9e8030a7fc6c3c6275363efaee49088f3ca9e8c4eeac548d71630b67c493"},{"id":1789767300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81151.2,"price_at_lock":81162.8,"sigma":0.0011534790586272903,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T21:35:45.817Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T21:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.375880386699967,"mom3":0.34130256576950785,"rev20":0.2598897086140087,"book":0.9648689989683952},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle -0.04%; three-candle momentum +0.04%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.3σ; order book 62/38 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.736 in log-odds). Raw model said 75%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81169.92,"band":93.61,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T21:35:45.817Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81252.9,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T21:40:50.821Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09000000000000002,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 70% likely; candle closed up (+0.13%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: bias +0.0146. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0146,"ret1":-0.0055,"mom3":0.0053,"rev20":0.0041,"book":0.0137}},"prev_hash":"00da9e8030a7fc6c3c6275363efaee49088f3ca9e8c4eeac548d71630b67c493","hash":"dbd378f84690a61adc96e77c77b856b54c885e9bfe5098db02affbb729eda23d"},{"id":1789767600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81252.9,"price_at_lock":81234.7,"sigma":0.0011675646707673046,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T21:40:50.821Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T21:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.0733591465991459,"mom3":0.6281726214267576,"rev20":1.3084424869403548,"book":0.05571816070297382},"fable":{"p":0.47747876533783445,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 48%. Last candle +0.13%; three-candle momentum +0.07%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.3σ; order book 51/49 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.321 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81250.76,"band":94.87,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T21:40:50.821Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81222.4,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T21:45:52.024Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2279859713485428,"delta":9,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 52% likely; candle closed down (-0.04%). Brier 0.2280. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0310. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0243,"ret1":-0.0255,"mom3":-0.0149,"rev20":-0.031,"book":-0.0021}},"prev_hash":"dbd378f84690a61adc96e77c77b856b54c885e9bfe5098db02affbb729eda23d","hash":"87749f90db67479e77ce4daf78c484e255d8d5f5dcce4224a0ffe15fce357015"},{"id":1789767900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81222.4,"price_at_lock":81209.3,"sigma":0.0011688605137497386,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T21:45:52.024Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T21:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.32114286786489094,"mom3":0.3800922704301983,"rev20":0.9670415429164148,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.3,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 30%. Last candle -0.04%; three-candle momentum +0.04%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.0σ; order book 22/78 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-1.549 in log-odds). Raw model said 20%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81203.41,"band":94.94,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T21:45:52.024Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81227.6,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T21:50:51.311Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 30% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0708. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0346,"ret1":-0.0111,"mom3":0.0134,"rev20":0.0341,"book":-0.0708}},"prev_hash":"87749f90db67479e77ce4daf78c484e255d8d5f5dcce4224a0ffe15fce357015","hash":"02f82006f3ce32c80771f62b16ee76bba7e1417348f3301e2bb875e403c06d47"},{"id":1789768200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81227.6,"price_at_lock":81258.6,"sigma":0.0010054182502885508,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T21:50:51.311Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T21:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.06367673122801028,"mom3":0.9367909807878806,"rev20":1.0350832622069994,"book":-0.2721658273807927},"fable":{"p":0.46841794637460554,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 47%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum +0.09%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.0σ; order book 47/53 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.251 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81225.02,"band":81.67,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T21:50:51.311Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81227.1,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T21:55:45.914Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.21941537248580284,"delta":12,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 53% likely; candle closed down (-0.00%). Brier 0.2194. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0240. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0239,"ret1":-0.0013,"mom3":-0.0218,"rev20":-0.024,"book":0.0057}},"prev_hash":"02f82006f3ce32c80771f62b16ee76bba7e1417348f3301e2bb875e403c06d47","hash":"4f5669e3dcedc2c05dea276d22e96bbd91a5fd65c7bfc0d0bbe7f6cc997cf379"},{"id":1789768500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81227.1,"price_at_lock":81227.1,"sigma":0.0009763402331116013,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T21:55:45.914Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T22:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.006304711186729946,"mom3":-0.32519914907339587,"rev20":0.9641464355767895,"book":1.201206091273742},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle -0.00%; three-candle momentum -0.03%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.0σ; order book 65/35 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.852 in log-odds). Raw model said 74%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81242.96,"band":79.31,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T21:55:45.914Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81238.7,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T22:01:15.724Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09000000000000002,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 70% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0173. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0146,"ret1":0.0001,"mom3":-0.0047,"rev20":0.0147,"book":0.0173}},"prev_hash":"4f5669e3dcedc2c05dea276d22e96bbd91a5fd65c7bfc0d0bbe7f6cc997cf379","hash":"45cedf843d61352fc6b9c8f2618ca4965fe284e3be132a9b88052d42911359fd"},{"id":1789768800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81238.7,"price_at_lock":81239.5,"sigma":0.0009087936027627826,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T22:01:15.724Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T22:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.1571418203626737,"mom3":0.2208154689553693,"rev20":1.17368623105036,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.3,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 30%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum +0.02%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.2σ; order book 21/79 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-1.453 in log-odds). Raw model said 20%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81223.93,"band":73.83,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T22:01:15.724Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81245.6,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T22:05:46.331Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 30% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0707. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0346,"ret1":0.0057,"mom3":0.0079,"rev20":0.0413,"book":-0.0707}},"prev_hash":"45cedf843d61352fc6b9c8f2618ca4965fe284e3be132a9b88052d42911359fd","hash":"15b9fb683e974996338adc6a3d0ea1c6e0b1c5f4534b9a926f88625c3ed0dc32"},{"id":1789769100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81245.6,"price_at_lock":81258.7,"sigma":0.000828696548482824,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T22:05:46.331Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T22:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.10249214813524143,"mom3":0.2673944131833206,"rev20":1.2661063987859078,"book":-1.515736037974322},"fable":{"p":0.3004626681312241,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 30%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum +0.02%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.3σ; order book 31/69 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.994 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81232.17,"band":67.33,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T22:05:46.331Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81348.3,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T22:10:49.527Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48935247867808584,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 30% likely; candle closed up (+0.13%). Brier 0.4894. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0537. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0345,"ret1":0.0038,"mom3":0.0095,"rev20":0.0445,"book":-0.0537}},"prev_hash":"15b9fb683e974996338adc6a3d0ea1c6e0b1c5f4534b9a926f88625c3ed0dc32","hash":"fb036316aea8ef63ac9419f13f191df8dbec22a186b2846581e08b78d3acc354"},{"id":1789769400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81348.3,"price_at_lock":81350.8,"sigma":0.0008421473774090924,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T22:10:49.527Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T22:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.5010062229933288,"mom3":1.771439138404201,"rev20":2,"book":0.09048615212729715},"fable":{"p":0.4269905445157801,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 43%. Last candle +0.13%; three-candle momentum +0.15%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.5σ; order book 51/49 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.332 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81343.3,"band":68.51,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T22:10:49.527Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81249.5,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T22:15:51.512Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.1823209251058824,"delta":27,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 57% likely; candle closed down (-0.12%). Brier 0.1823. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0425. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0219,"ret1":-0.0319,"mom3":-0.0377,"rev20":-0.0425,"book":-0.0025}},"prev_hash":"fb036316aea8ef63ac9419f13f191df8dbec22a186b2846581e08b78d3acc354","hash":"aaff59b67b4e25abb4fcfb2bf6e923c98f236fbb512a8506dbcd3e3a5eb2754c"},{"id":1789769700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81249.5,"price_at_lock":81277.1,"sigma":0.0008970755932765564,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T22:15:51.512Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T22:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.353877659722087,"mom3":0.14990123437044708,"rev20":0.8449613068489865,"book":1.7332985234821445},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle -0.12%; three-candle momentum +0.01%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.8σ; order book 72/28 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+1.039 in log-odds). Raw model said 83%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81264.08,"band":72.89,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T22:15:51.512Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81330,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T22:20:51.633Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09000000000000002,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 70% likely; candle closed up (+0.10%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0254. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0145,"ret1":-0.0201,"mom3":0.0024,"rev20":0.0129,"book":0.0254}},"prev_hash":"aaff59b67b4e25abb4fcfb2bf6e923c98f236fbb512a8506dbcd3e3a5eb2754c","hash":"5b5903f36244a5ab39e0d03941a1127256455295c37c0637a261f9773813008b"},{"id":1789770000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81330,"price_at_lock":81313.1,"sigma":0.0009101459060852633,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T22:20:51.633Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T22:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.0885895560522958,"mom3":1.1430180262769933,"rev20":1.7017849562848624,"book":1.0209753362299003},"fable":{"p":0.5862114517646189,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 59%. Last candle +0.10%; three-candle momentum +0.10%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.7σ; order book 63/37 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.638 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81336.38,"band":74.02,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T22:20:51.633Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81265.1,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T22:25:44.151Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.34364386617998205,"delta":-37,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 41% likely; candle closed down (-0.08%). Brier 0.3436. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0497. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0298,"ret1":-0.0317,"mom3":-0.0333,"rev20":-0.0497,"book":-0.0306}},"prev_hash":"5b5903f36244a5ab39e0d03941a1127256455295c37c0637a261f9773813008b","hash":"cf0fbdc891060aff6742dfd6d4f4977eac1a2d60946fddbef4cc308a3cc7c682"},{"id":1789770300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81265.1,"price_at_lock":81259.6,"sigma":0.0008469294444052409,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T22:25:44.151Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T22:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.9422077945055147,"mom3":-1.2064036828985893,"rev20":0.8071529180101571,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.3987705392185106,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 40%. Last candle -0.08%; three-candle momentum -0.10%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.8σ; order book 24/76 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-1.189 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81258.13,"band":68.83,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T22:25:44.151Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81261.2,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T22:30:56.424Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.15901794294862168,"delta":36,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 60% likely; candle closed down (-0.00%). Brier 0.1590. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0393. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0204,"ret1":0.0191,"mom3":0.0243,"rev20":-0.0158,"book":0.0393}},"prev_hash":"cf0fbdc891060aff6742dfd6d4f4977eac1a2d60946fddbef4cc308a3cc7c682","hash":"dd6830142a96411b60bf974369bf35c59beb4ff74ef949ed815439138a5633ee"},{"id":1789770600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81261.2,"price_at_lock":81258.7,"sigma":0.0008211764418371371,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T22:30:56.424Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T22:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.05844186291427347,"mom3":0.17633326470874286,"rev20":0.644731090832953,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.3,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 30%. Last candle -0.00%; three-candle momentum +0.01%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.6σ; order book 24/76 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-1.268 in log-odds). Raw model said 27%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81247.85,"band":66.73,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T22:30:56.424Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81171.4,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T22:35:44.141Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 70% likely; candle closed down (-0.11%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0294. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0155,"ret1":0.0011,"mom3":-0.0025,"rev20":-0.0094,"book":0.0294}},"prev_hash":"dd6830142a96411b60bf974369bf35c59beb4ff74ef949ed815439138a5633ee","hash":"1407147c75a0b531f6abe5e44b274b166fc43cda3a9e18cc18a40aa563a200bb"},{"id":1789770900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81171.4,"price_at_lock":81166.7,"sigma":0.0008626436057604215,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T22:35:44.141Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T22:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.2810370714383754,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-0.7261737046070479,"book":-1.2850237176220105},"fable":{"p":0.6155898648522304,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 62%. Last candle -0.11%; three-candle momentum -0.20%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.7σ; order book 34/66 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (-0.852 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81179.49,"band":70.02,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T22:35:44.141Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81185.7,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T22:40:51.722Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.14777115200432644,"delta":41,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 62% likely; candle closed up (+0.02%). Brier 0.1478. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0383. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0188,"ret1":-0.0244,"mom3":-0.0383,"rev20":-0.0137,"book":-0.0254}},"prev_hash":"1407147c75a0b531f6abe5e44b274b166fc43cda3a9e18cc18a40aa563a200bb","hash":"7c0aabc492ef0473a9a3ec6d04e584ddf172b702949f84069eec93b93344e08a"},{"id":1789771200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81185.7,"price_at_lock":81179.7,"sigma":0.00086015763772483,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T22:40:51.722Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T22:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.20481178894652505,"mom3":-1.1357210028224205,"rev20":-0.5709434719671108,"book":1.7622106027383193},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle +0.02%; three-candle momentum -0.10%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.6σ; order book 72/28 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+1.124 in log-odds). Raw model said 87%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81199.67,"band":69.83,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T22:40:51.722Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81127.8,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T22:45:52.615Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 30% likely; candle closed down (-0.07%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0623. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0355,"ret1":-0.0069,"mom3":0.04,"rev20":0.0203,"book":-0.0623}},"prev_hash":"7c0aabc492ef0473a9a3ec6d04e584ddf172b702949f84069eec93b93344e08a","hash":"1aa869d4bfbece5294cd46cb09ad723ea3f23192a56ac50c66e67f25918e0bfd"},{"id":1789771500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81127.8,"price_at_lock":81123.5,"sigma":0.0008488526693840758,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T22:45:52.615Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T22:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.8401691010077791,"mom3":-1.9344791589992834,"rev20":-1.3687591898402567,"book":-1.7163845870716414},"fable":{"p":0.5947384569576932,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 59%. Last candle -0.07%; three-candle momentum -0.16%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.4σ; order book 29/71 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (-0.988 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81134.32,"band":68.87,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T22:45:52.615Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81124.1,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T22:50:47.215Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.35371383218441793,"delta":-41,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 41% likely; candle closed down (-0.00%). Brier 0.3537. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0577. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0302,"ret1":0.0253,"mom3":0.0577,"rev20":0.041,"book":0.0505}},"prev_hash":"1aa869d4bfbece5294cd46cb09ad723ea3f23192a56ac50c66e67f25918e0bfd","hash":"2acf7ef2a2a1686a0f498548867c38f50665c0c6d71eed061062336b861a63a2"},{"id":1789771800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81124.1,"price_at_lock":81128,"sigma":0.0008460803975072825,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T22:50:47.215Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T22:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.05390392530406551,"mom3":-0.688606444294184,"rev20":-1.3948187161138765,"book":-0.45158949352351185},"fable":{"p":0.6264893928398938,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 63%. Last candle -0.00%; three-candle momentum -0.06%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.4σ; order book 44/56 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.311 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81132.78,"band":68.64,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T22:50:47.215Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81133.3,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T22:55:44.150Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.13951017366111118,"delta":44,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 63% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.1395. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0258. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0183,"ret1":-0.0007,"mom3":-0.0127,"rev20":-0.0258,"book":-0.0091}},"prev_hash":"2acf7ef2a2a1686a0f498548867c38f50665c0c6d71eed061062336b861a63a2","hash":"c9ec09f1af04aa2f7d2d8541178d2613fc071dbf371859efba044dd70f4235d6"},{"id":1789772100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81133.3,"price_at_lock":81133.3,"sigma":0.0007936349577925072,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T22:55:44.150Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T23:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.14289503737965417,"mom3":-0.8131954563953453,"rev20":-1.2373258366167006,"book":-0.8452753739999888},"fable":{"p":0.5668194617938179,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 57%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum -0.06%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.2σ; order book 39/61 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (-0.521 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81137.6,"band":64.39,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T22:55:44.150Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81140.4,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T23:01:02.132Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.18764537868059758,"delta":25,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 57% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.1876. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0266. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0213,"ret1":0.0034,"mom3":-0.0175,"rev20":-0.0266,"book":-0.0189}},"prev_hash":"c9ec09f1af04aa2f7d2d8541178d2613fc071dbf371859efba044dd70f4235d6","hash":"0d0a24e501aee4fc6073962c03837a1fd7329f0ea49c575f549806ea6fadbd7c"},{"id":1789772400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81140.4,"price_at_lock":81204.3,"sigma":0.0006799510155189636,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T23:01:02.132Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T23:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.12870089920371347,"mom3":0.22841314444441946,"rev20":-1.3347129098556028,"book":0.985936768287354},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum +0.02%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.3σ; order book 62/38 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.590 in log-odds). Raw model said 79%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81151.43,"band":55.17,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T23:01:02.132Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81160.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T23:05:44.143Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09000000000000002,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 70% likely; candle closed up (+0.02%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0197. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0146,"ret1":0.0022,"mom3":0.0036,"rev20":-0.0197,"book":0.0142}},"prev_hash":"0d0a24e501aee4fc6073962c03837a1fd7329f0ea49c575f549806ea6fadbd7c","hash":"aebdf530beb62e7dbe2c0a0e6f3a1cf1626a357904f003a11c5896a93c3dd62a"},{"id":1789772700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81160.5,"price_at_lock":81109.2,"sigma":0.0006507329404650601,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T23:05:44.143Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T23:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.3806765472356009,"mom3":0.6894311707955207,"rev20":-0.9832041092951519,"book":-1.4510083684675275},"fable":{"p":0.41193766277489824,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 41%. Last candle +0.02%; three-candle momentum +0.04%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.0σ; order book 32/68 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.888 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81155.85,"band":52.81,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T23:05:44.143Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81138.8,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T23:10:46.824Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.16969263801244577,"delta":32,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 59% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.1697. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0293. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.021,"ret1":-0.0076,"mom3":-0.014,"rev20":0.0205,"book":0.0293}},"prev_hash":"aebdf530beb62e7dbe2c0a0e6f3a1cf1626a357904f003a11c5896a93c3dd62a","hash":"143c001112540b3d5928123c57b6324a4812527f28694acf1fb3449e1cc3b92e"},{"id":1789773000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81138.8,"price_at_lock":81117.9,"sigma":0.0006528482073301941,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T23:10:46.824Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T23:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.409546108885376,"mom3":0.10394090432308228,"rev20":-1.3444527283282728,"book":-1.0672233428718862},"fable":{"p":0.5487093605182248,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 55%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum +0.01%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.3σ; order book 37/63 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (-0.685 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81141.38,"band":52.97,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T23:10:46.824Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81177.9,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T23:15:55.426Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.20366324128386956,"delta":19,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 55% likely; candle closed up (+0.05%). Brier 0.2037. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0301. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0221,"ret1":-0.009,"mom3":0.0025,"rev20":-0.0301,"book":-0.0247}},"prev_hash":"143c001112540b3d5928123c57b6324a4812527f28694acf1fb3449e1cc3b92e","hash":"34f0cf3532ffc85c7ba8ab58f4fee1f03313b84656705549e17e074ccddce1ea"},{"id":1789773300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81177.9,"price_at_lock":81199.9,"sigma":0.0006549750431235254,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T23:15:55.426Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T23:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.7357384021832011,"mom3":0.7057331763925463,"rev20":-0.630082465766765,"book":0.24971427241001953},"fable":{"p":0.617004748657227,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 62%. Last candle +0.05%; three-candle momentum +0.05%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.6σ; order book 53/47 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: last candle (-0.198 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81184.12,"band":53.17,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T23:15:55.426Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81130.9,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T23:20:50.206Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.38069485986556784,"delta":-52,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 38% likely; candle closed down (-0.06%). Brier 0.3807. Largest weight change: bias -0.0313. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0313,"ret1":-0.0224,"mom3":-0.0216,"rev20":0.0197,"book":-0.0083}},"prev_hash":"34f0cf3532ffc85c7ba8ab58f4fee1f03313b84656705549e17e074ccddce1ea","hash":"4f68de79a96808ae7935002f01f32c9dea57e7b1118d94734fecfd5e67fa3781"},{"id":1789773600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81130.9,"price_at_lock":81133,"sigma":0.0006015696068403739,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T23:20:50.206Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T23:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.9624410968620363,"mom3":-0.6058425482428337,"rev20":-1.523316493981515,"book":0.42132482779793456},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle -0.06%; three-candle momentum -0.04%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.5σ; order book 55/45 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.434 in log-odds). Raw model said 82%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81140.66,"band":48.81,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T23:20:50.206Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81060.5,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T23:25:44.149Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 30% likely; candle closed down (-0.09%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0536. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0354,"ret1":0.034,"mom3":0.0214,"rev20":0.0536,"book":-0.0154}},"prev_hash":"4f68de79a96808ae7935002f01f32c9dea57e7b1118d94734fecfd5e67fa3781","hash":"615a3bd70df6e791a6b9cc6441d12ccc97e1bed459393727ff25a5eb3b3d072f"},{"id":1789773900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81060.5,"price_at_lock":81051,"sigma":0.0006230511472541113,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T23:25:44.149Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T23:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.3927163220910341,"mom3":-1.548538233304274,"rev20":-2,"book":-1.4971050167290534},"fable":{"p":0.6372610989655372,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 64%. Last candle -0.09%; three-candle momentum -0.10%; price below its 20-candle mean by 2.7σ; order book 31/69 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (-0.888 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81067.43,"band":50.5,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T23:25:44.149Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":80996.9,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T23:30:59.329Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.40610170825476416,"delta":-62,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 36% likely; candle closed down (-0.08%). Brier 0.4061. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0640. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0322,"ret1":0.0446,"mom3":0.0495,"rev20":0.064,"book":0.0471}},"prev_hash":"615a3bd70df6e791a6b9cc6441d12ccc97e1bed459393727ff25a5eb3b3d072f","hash":"8bfc01e201d7bd9cca2089bd1d464598faad9b1143fefd333a97932574a51e39"},{"id":1789774200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":80996.9,"price_at_lock":80978,"sigma":0.0006391540477203688,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T23:30:59.329Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T23:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.2275587711881217,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-2,"book":-1.5360259652558292},"fable":{"p":0.5462550193540081,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 55%. Last candle -0.08%; three-candle momentum -0.22%; price below its 20-candle mean by 3.6σ; order book 31/69 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (-0.983 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":80999.29,"band":51.77,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T23:30:59.329Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81021.6,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T23:35:44.144Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.20588450746143155,"delta":18,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 55% likely; candle closed up (+0.03%). Brier 0.2059. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0453. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0223,"ret1":-0.0276,"mom3":-0.0453,"rev20":-0.0452,"book":-0.0355}},"prev_hash":"8bfc01e201d7bd9cca2089bd1d464598faad9b1143fefd333a97932574a51e39","hash":"f06c95fdcb50bc54c2bdda69f20306f821bdc273ec75db66178cd79425ecb10a"},{"id":1789774500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81021.6,"price_at_lock":80972.8,"sigma":0.0006460196080705355,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T23:35:44.144Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T23:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.47204440657707175,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-2,"book":-1.7465594750999944},"fable":{"p":0.48546178407553653,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 49%. Last candle +0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.13%; price below its 20-candle mean by 2.9σ; order book 28/72 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: order book (-1.056 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81020.84,"band":52.34,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T23:35:44.144Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":80905,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T23:40:50.407Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.23567314379780285,"delta":6,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 51% likely; candle closed down (-0.14%). Brier 0.2357. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0488. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0246,"ret1":-0.0112,"mom3":0.0487,"rev20":0.0488,"book":0.0418}},"prev_hash":"f06c95fdcb50bc54c2bdda69f20306f821bdc273ec75db66178cd79425ecb10a","hash":"5445639c63a71008fd14e9fe3fdd410354b3a696c78a78b6808f1b6b435e68f7"},{"id":1789774800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":80905,"price_at_lock":80868.3,"sigma":0.0007025787720532471,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T23:40:50.407Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T23:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-2,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-2,"book":1.7976376933492102},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle -0.14%; three-candle momentum -0.19%; price below its 20-candle mean by 4.4σ; order book 72/28 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+1.162 in log-odds). Raw model said 93%, capped by policy.","expected_close":80916.37,"band":56.84,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T23:40:50.407Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":80898,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T23:45:50.113Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 30% likely; candle closed down (-0.01%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: last-candle +0.0703. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0353,"ret1":0.0703,"mom3":0.0701,"rev20":0.0702,"book":-0.0636}},"prev_hash":"5445639c63a71008fd14e9fe3fdd410354b3a696c78a78b6808f1b6b435e68f7","hash":"7b9db2e164ce9e5985a654213562b27b1d780fecb8db45ef6846c45c86dc0fa4"},{"id":1789775100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":80898,"price_at_lock":80905.5,"sigma":0.0007000235520006516,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T23:45:50.113Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T23:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.12359759661538589,"mom3":-1.74378946172359,"rev20":-2,"book":-0.6928881424311395},"fable":{"p":0.5458336206775369,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 55%. Last candle -0.01%; three-candle momentum -0.12%; price below its 20-candle mean by 4.3σ; order book 41/59 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (-0.404 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":80900.6,"band":56.63,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T23:45:50.113Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":80913.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T23:50:46.710Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2062671001068754,"delta":17,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 55% likely; candle closed up (+0.02%). Brier 0.2063. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0453. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0224,"ret1":-0.0026,"mom3":-0.0396,"rev20":-0.0453,"book":-0.0163}},"prev_hash":"7b9db2e164ce9e5985a654213562b27b1d780fecb8db45ef6846c45c86dc0fa4","hash":"4f5b98e69224243e250e81fb966443689494593aea91384c9f89e398922442c5"},{"id":1789775400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":80913.5,"price_at_lock":80908.7,"sigma":0.0006213991501720803,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T23:50:46.710Z","deadline":"2026-09-18T23:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.3083353072308261,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-2,"book":1.7515410752028413},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle +0.02%; three-candle momentum -0.13%; price below its 20-candle mean by 4.1σ; order book 72/28 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.992 in log-odds). Raw model said 85%, capped by policy.","expected_close":80923.56,"band":50.28,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T23:50:46.710Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":80909.1,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-18T23:55:44.142Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 30% likely; candle closed down (-0.01%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0701. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0353,"ret1":-0.0106,"mom3":0.0701,"rev20":0.0701,"book":-0.0619}},"prev_hash":"4f5b98e69224243e250e81fb966443689494593aea91384c9f89e398922442c5","hash":"dda65595f32096a93bfab63a970d392efaf16287fd8fca3da4d5057118f82895"},{"id":1789775700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":80909.1,"price_at_lock":80909.1,"sigma":0.0005832896436112827,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T23:55:44.142Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.09322822668673329,"mom3":0.0869190987985497,"rev20":-2,"book":1.3996660026755565},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle -0.01%; three-candle momentum +0.01%; price below its 20-candle mean by 4.1σ; order book 67/33 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.706 in log-odds). Raw model said 76%, capped by policy.","expected_close":80918.54,"band":47.19,"locked_at":"2026-09-18T23:55:44.142Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":80902.2,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T00:01:14.716Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 30% likely; candle closed down (-0.01%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0701. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0353,"ret1":0.0035,"mom3":-0.003,"rev20":0.0701,"book":-0.0495}},"prev_hash":"dda65595f32096a93bfab63a970d392efaf16287fd8fca3da4d5057118f82895","hash":"1307340f16bf4ed16ee80bb3c41924e23a69045d59d5dc3204573a829f15f273"},{"id":1789776000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":80902.2,"price_at_lock":80921.1,"sigma":0.0005157966819951634,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T00:01:14.716Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T00:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.16533818900213415,"mom3":0.10069733148993598,"rev20":-2,"book":1.4623123122012687},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle -0.01%; three-candle momentum +0.01%; price below its 20-candle mean by 4.3σ; order book 68/32 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.666 in log-odds). Raw model said 72%, capped by policy.","expected_close":80910.55,"band":41.73,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T00:01:14.716Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":80861.9,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T00:05:44.825Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 30% likely; candle closed down (-0.05%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0700. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0353,"ret1":0.006,"mom3":-0.0035,"rev20":0.07,"book":-0.0516}},"prev_hash":"1307340f16bf4ed16ee80bb3c41924e23a69045d59d5dc3204573a829f15f273","hash":"363197fd929fc2070bed85b460bd22f6f754f794435d5a90db587d082f640697"},{"id":1789776300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":80861.9,"price_at_lock":80890.9,"sigma":0.0005042730313304391,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T00:05:44.825Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T00:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.987822631576635,"mom3":-1.264775670378923,"rev20":-2,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle -0.05%; three-candle momentum -0.06%; price below its 20-candle mean by 4.9σ; order book 82/18 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.807 in log-odds). Raw model said 75%, capped by policy.","expected_close":80870.06,"band":40.78,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T00:05:44.825Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":80871.6,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T00:10:48.512Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09000000000000002,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 70% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0301. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0148,"ret1":-0.0146,"mom3":-0.019,"rev20":-0.0301,"book":0.0296}},"prev_hash":"363197fd929fc2070bed85b460bd22f6f754f794435d5a90db587d082f640697","hash":"9106bb55e5d666f8ba6c3b498626ab7ec9798ab1c0ca88eef74f7ebcdbefffaf"},{"id":1789776600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":80871.6,"price_at_lock":80924.4,"sigma":0.0005089196813478759,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T00:10:48.512Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T00:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.23571029207768213,"mom3":-0.9106654986780987,"rev20":-2,"book":1.7136867534652824},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum -0.05%; price below its 20-candle mean by 4.1σ; order book 71/29 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.742 in log-odds). Raw model said 71%, capped by policy.","expected_close":80879.83,"band":41.16,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T00:10:48.512Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":80979.2,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T00:15:51.408Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09000000000000002,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 70% likely; candle closed up (+0.13%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0300. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0148,"ret1":0.0037,"mom3":-0.0136,"rev20":-0.03,"book":0.0253}},"prev_hash":"9106bb55e5d666f8ba6c3b498626ab7ec9798ab1c0ca88eef74f7ebcdbefffaf","hash":"30686e7c6f111a8e12bca7717cf5062bb6bb2fc598f9d8ae5a5b3e6f2e87d62c"},{"id":1789776900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":80979.2,"price_at_lock":80973.7,"sigma":0.0005745511633834414,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T00:15:51.408Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T00:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":2,"mom3":1.6575189674869484,"rev20":-1.1329123860825645,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.6646899537476462,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 66%. Last candle +0.13%; three-candle momentum +0.10%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.1σ; order book 76/24 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.917 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":80986.86,"band":46.53,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T00:15:51.408Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81073,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T00:20:47.913Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.11243282711775567,"delta":55,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 66% likely; candle closed up (+0.12%). Brier 0.1124. Largest weight change: last-candle +0.0337. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0165,"ret1":0.0337,"mom3":0.0278,"rev20":-0.019,"book":0.0331}},"prev_hash":"30686e7c6f111a8e12bca7717cf5062bb6bb2fc598f9d8ae5a5b3e6f2e87d62c","hash":"d838d2cc824b61b58517fdea507b89344304657bc84a3a850989aaae985ad663"},{"id":1789777200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81073,"price_at_lock":81040.8,"sigma":0.0006362828887567657,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T00:20:47.913Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T00:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.820451496512632,"mom3":2,"rev20":0.9056232603272125,"book":-1.5243943233884494},"fable":{"p":0.30491994152660656,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 30%. Last candle +0.12%; three-candle momentum +0.26%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.9σ; order book 31/69 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.749 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81062.94,"band":51.59,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T00:20:47.913Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81070.3,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T00:25:44.149Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09297617074058917,"delta":63,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 70% likely; candle closed down (-0.00%). Brier 0.0930. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0305. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0155,"ret1":-0.0276,"mom3":-0.0305,"rev20":-0.0138,"book":0.0227}},"prev_hash":"d838d2cc824b61b58517fdea507b89344304657bc84a3a850989aaae985ad663","hash":"91111e8cf282ab0755ea8ce1ba66403db33ebe70345b77084e5802b12a1b1431"},{"id":1789777500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81070.3,"price_at_lock":81080.9,"sigma":0.0006188964461187234,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T00:25:44.149Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T00:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.05381081025692652,"mom3":2,"rev20":0.9345875284137761,"book":0.5181073921312195},"fable":{"p":0.6004455273004685,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 60%. Last candle -0.00%; three-candle momentum +0.25%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.9σ; order book 56/44 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.266 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81075.34,"band":50.17,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T00:25:44.149Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81107,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T00:30:54.614Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.15964377665420065,"delta":36,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 60% likely; candle closed up (+0.05%). Brier 0.1596. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0400. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0197,"ret1":-0.0009,"mom3":0.04,"rev20":0.0187,"book":0.0098}},"prev_hash":"91111e8cf282ab0755ea8ce1ba66403db33ebe70345b77084e5802b12a1b1431","hash":"587bd8a8ade49778f9083c361400fb0481bc8d69545411726e7717199698873f"},{"id":1789777800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81107,"price_at_lock":81127.2,"sigma":0.0006279423129959183,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T00:30:54.614Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T00:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.7209157865516828,"mom3":2,"rev20":1.659279437137633,"book":1.69633417715784},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle +0.05%; three-candle momentum +0.16%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.7σ; order book 71/29 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.889 in log-odds). Raw model said 73%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81117.19,"band":50.93,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T00:30:54.614Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81265.7,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T00:35:44.142Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09000000000000002,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 70% likely; candle closed up (+0.20%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0300. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0147,"ret1":0.011,"mom3":0.03,"rev20":0.0249,"book":0.0249}},"prev_hash":"587bd8a8ade49778f9083c361400fb0481bc8d69545411726e7717199698873f","hash":"90bc57022b95d71c1980cb06931aa1738da0c857a20d65f5a9ca9a90e30dcfea"},{"id":1789778100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81265.7,"price_at_lock":81276.8,"sigma":0.0007605982584541585,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T00:35:44.142Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T00:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":2,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle +0.20%; three-candle momentum +0.24%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.8σ; order book 76/24 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+1.098 in log-odds). Raw model said 75%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81278.06,"band":61.81,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T00:35:44.142Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81281,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T00:40:47.412Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09000000000000002,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 70% likely; candle closed up (+0.02%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: last-candle +0.0302. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0147,"ret1":0.0302,"mom3":0.03,"rev20":0.03,"book":0.0295}},"prev_hash":"90bc57022b95d71c1980cb06931aa1738da0c857a20d65f5a9ca9a90e30dcfea","hash":"9bd10023dfd76c77777e67b260dabbf1fff9d8de0c6e5c1da713771e59b74948"},{"id":1789778400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81281,"price_at_lock":81281,"sigma":0.0007609528914210023,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T00:40:47.412Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T00:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.2474152008879454,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle +0.02%; three-candle momentum +0.26%; price above its 20-candle mean by 4.0σ; order book 78/22 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+1.157 in log-odds). Raw model said 84%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81293.37,"band":61.85,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T00:40:47.412Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81319,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T00:45:47.410Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09000000000000002,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 70% likely; candle closed up (+0.05%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0300. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0147,"ret1":0.0039,"mom3":0.03,"rev20":0.0299,"book":0.0294}},"prev_hash":"9bd10023dfd76c77777e67b260dabbf1fff9d8de0c6e5c1da713771e59b74948","hash":"2197f4a198e3a8f4832f3730784f4634c586859139bb4705528d167af26140bc"},{"id":1789778700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81319,"price_at_lock":81328.6,"sigma":0.0007647742559624549,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T00:45:47.410Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T00:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.6113097159071464,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":0.39575555222286274},"fable":{"p":0.6878759500241682,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 69%. Last candle +0.05%; three-candle momentum +0.26%; price above its 20-candle mean by 4.4σ; order book 55/45 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.241 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81330.68,"band":62.19,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T00:45:47.410Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81295.3,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T00:50:46.908Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.473173322621652,"delta":-89,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 31% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.4732. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0689. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0347,"ret1":-0.0209,"mom3":-0.0689,"rev20":-0.0689,"book":-0.0142}},"prev_hash":"2197f4a198e3a8f4832f3730784f4634c586859139bb4705528d167af26140bc","hash":"bc8479170984b18d46048ccdfd7e1aa8da311ffdd7b49a4fa836ace81cddaf83"},{"id":1789779000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81295.3,"price_at_lock":81299.9,"sigma":0.0007653668374141519,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T00:50:46.908Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T00:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.38079100053775833,"mom3":0.4760337449115173,"rev20":2,"book":-0.049966858344266854},"fable":{"p":0.5861601818506589,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 59%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum +0.04%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.9σ; order book 49/51 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: last candle (+0.063 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81300.66,"band":62.22,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T00:50:46.908Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81422.7,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T00:55:44.143Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.17126339508587973,"delta":31,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 59% likely; candle closed up (+0.16%). Brier 0.1713. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0414. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0204,"ret1":-0.0077,"mom3":0.0098,"rev20":0.0414,"book":-0.0016}},"prev_hash":"bc8479170984b18d46048ccdfd7e1aa8da311ffdd7b49a4fa836ace81cddaf83","hash":"8683322a64aabc195b12e55aeecc32438dee0d4a0fc9ba08c0d10166292c4e98"},{"id":1789779300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81422.7,"price_at_lock":81487,"sigma":0.0008267630839205157,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T00:55:44.143Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T01:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.8954961793900615,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":-1.6340370689956991},"fable":{"p":0.30024753364592344,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 30%. Last candle +0.16%; three-candle momentum +0.17%; price above its 20-candle mean by 5.3σ; order book 30/70 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.967 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81409.25,"band":67.32,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T00:55:44.143Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81672.1,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T01:01:00.510Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48965351416861314,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 30% likely; candle closed up (+0.31%). Brier 0.4897. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0700. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0347,"ret1":0.0665,"mom3":0.07,"rev20":0.0699,"book":-0.0578}},"prev_hash":"8683322a64aabc195b12e55aeecc32438dee0d4a0fc9ba08c0d10166292c4e98","hash":"aef5640f093988eb301a41525798bc83391623a86e19242b2f73ef3e8dc11c78"},{"id":1789779600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81672.1,"price_at_lock":81694.3,"sigma":0.0010236029851030174,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T01:01:00.510Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T01:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":2,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":0.5487082781256702},"fable":{"p":0.6992252147762048,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle +0.31%; three-candle momentum +0.43%; price above its 20-candle mean by 7.0σ; order book 57/43 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.293 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81688.76,"band":83.6,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T01:01:00.510Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81501.4,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T01:05:44.141Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48891590097882975,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 30% likely; candle closed down (-0.21%). Brier 0.4889. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0700. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0353,"ret1":-0.0698,"mom3":-0.07,"rev20":-0.07,"book":-0.0197}},"prev_hash":"aef5640f093988eb301a41525798bc83391623a86e19242b2f73ef3e8dc11c78","hash":"867812de0cf2d695f9f95fb0e7d986c94e4c79302f77ca60c03607bc14a14523"},{"id":1789779900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81501.4,"price_at_lock":81476.8,"sigma":0.0011249456661628734,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T01:05:44.141Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T01:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.8579253124783561,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":0.6628188630424846},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle -0.21%; three-candle momentum +0.25%; price above its 20-candle mean by 4.3σ; order book 58/42 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.341 in log-odds). Raw model said 75%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81519.74,"band":91.68,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T01:05:44.141Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81405.8,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T01:10:45.917Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 30% likely; candle closed down (-0.12%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0701. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0353,"ret1":0.0652,"mom3":-0.07,"rev20":-0.0701,"book":-0.0237}},"prev_hash":"867812de0cf2d695f9f95fb0e7d986c94e4c79302f77ca60c03607bc14a14523","hash":"0d5bb0b6cb2c3be836e46803ebd26a0c0f66b26f4405c3bec9894a89e8d2e745"},{"id":1789780200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81405.8,"price_at_lock":81400.2,"sigma":0.0011461677407205437,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T01:10:45.917Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T01:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.0233981849631388,"mom3":-0.17451471434942073,"rev20":2,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.3495638953549593,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 35%. Last candle -0.12%; three-candle momentum -0.02%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.9σ; order book 20/80 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.982 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81391.76,"band":93.3,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T01:10:45.917Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81285.7,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T01:15:47.704Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.12219491693573294,"delta":51,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 65% likely; candle closed down (-0.15%). Brier 0.1222. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0349. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0177,"ret1":0.018,"mom3":0.0031,"rev20":-0.0349,"book":0.0345}},"prev_hash":"0d5bb0b6cb2c3be836e46803ebd26a0c0f66b26f4405c3bec9894a89e8d2e745","hash":"10669939c0dffece883c37e778d6556798f8332af1cb6e108b05d2f1de00624e"},{"id":1789780500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81285.7,"price_at_lock":81315.7,"sigma":0.0012061936573252384,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T01:15:47.704Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T01:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.2231243673380519,"mom3":-2,"rev20":1.4173116541891357,"book":-1.880056629672386},"fable":{"p":0.35488038882074346,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 35%. Last candle -0.15%; three-candle momentum -0.47%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.4σ; order book 26/74 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.988 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81271.47,"band":98.05,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T01:15:47.704Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81172,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T01:20:47.018Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.12594009036956205,"delta":50,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 65% likely; candle closed down (-0.14%). Brier 0.1259. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0355. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.018,"ret1":0.0218,"mom3":0.0355,"rev20":-0.0251,"book":0.0328}},"prev_hash":"10669939c0dffece883c37e778d6556798f8332af1cb6e108b05d2f1de00624e","hash":"ebbc039de3f382b5e6578fd2c45f6a729a9f6bff57ee938092bc1935d2d15b8f"},{"id":1789780800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81172,"price_at_lock":81153.8,"sigma":0.001203542145075786,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T01:20:47.018Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T01:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.1622110809176622,"mom3":-2,"rev20":0.1195230890798886,"book":0.08416127537193716},"fable":{"p":0.5937222954796235,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 59%. Last candle -0.14%; three-candle momentum -0.40%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.1σ; order book 51/49 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: last candle (+0.084 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81181.16,"band":97.69,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T01:20:47.018Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81305.6,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T01:25:44.138Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.16506157319034634,"delta":34,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 59% likely; candle closed up (+0.16%). Brier 0.1651. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0406. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0201,"ret1":-0.0235,"mom3":-0.0406,"rev20":0.0025,"book":0.0012}},"prev_hash":"ebbc039de3f382b5e6578fd2c45f6a729a9f6bff57ee938092bc1935d2d15b8f","hash":"3b042036489bef4476df2c47a69e84ea8533849550bb3ee10ef212f253d0a990"},{"id":1789781100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81305.6,"price_at_lock":81309.8,"sigma":0.001243952060446891,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T01:25:44.138Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T01:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.3231118761532001,"mom3":-0.9873428131770888,"rev20":1.2367689971759017,"book":1.7002098578501696},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle +0.16%; three-candle momentum -0.12%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.2σ; order book 71/29 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.951 in log-odds). Raw model said 74%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81325.83,"band":101.14,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T01:25:44.138Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81257.9,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T01:31:01.314Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 30% likely; candle closed down (-0.06%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0601. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0353,"ret1":-0.0462,"mom3":0.0346,"rev20":-0.0432,"book":-0.0601}},"prev_hash":"3b042036489bef4476df2c47a69e84ea8533849550bb3ee10ef212f253d0a990","hash":"6ea7f743731245f7434f525e2dd4a184283f4762a072ec5429e6e7ce5db41aa7"},{"id":1789781400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81257.9,"price_at_lock":81239.8,"sigma":0.0012573369581910597,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T01:31:01.314Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T01:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.4666016160006273,"mom3":-0.2700610422314732,"rev20":0.5874537009281856,"book":-1.7252260993621666},"fable":{"p":0.34501980251781056,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 35%. Last candle -0.06%; three-candle momentum -0.03%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.6σ; order book 28/72 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.861 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81242.07,"band":102.17,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T01:31:01.314Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81103.6,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T01:35:44.144Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.119038664129429,"delta":52,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 65% likely; candle closed down (-0.19%). Brier 0.1190. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0293. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0175,"ret1":0.0082,"mom3":0.0047,"rev20":-0.01,"book":0.0293}},"prev_hash":"6ea7f743731245f7434f525e2dd4a184283f4762a072ec5429e6e7ce5db41aa7","hash":"1e1025a85ebbbfc28c4da7db0d57488cc233d36e3ae42b1af04d4fcc4d04f745"},{"id":1789781700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81103.6,"price_at_lock":81096.9,"sigma":0.0013386014678368758,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T01:35:44.144Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T01:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.4185643284756309,"mom3":-0.6272815505589846,"rev20":-0.9571805049106379,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.3687868042680925,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 37%. Last candle -0.19%; three-candle momentum -0.08%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.0σ; order book 22/78 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-1.057 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81089.35,"band":108.57,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T01:35:44.144Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81139.8,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T01:40:44.146Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.39843009846608735,"delta":-59,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 37% likely; candle closed up (+0.04%). Brier 0.3984. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0636. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0314,"ret1":-0.0446,"mom3":-0.0198,"rev20":-0.0301,"book":-0.0636}},"prev_hash":"1e1025a85ebbbfc28c4da7db0d57488cc233d36e3ae42b1af04d4fcc4d04f745","hash":"8755fc22da4881b4ab8f3c3af5e06df251a40bceb29ba95ed581a9725c4ae20b"},{"id":1789782000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81139.8,"price_at_lock":81122.7,"sigma":0.0013395202556807945,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T01:40:44.146Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T01:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.3332108645070324,"mom3":-1.522354766790207,"rev20":-0.7328447937227028,"book":-0.3099258989980297},"fable":{"p":0.5481812889455238,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 55%. Last candle +0.04%; three-candle momentum -0.20%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.7σ; order book 46/54 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (-0.144 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81145.04,"band":108.69,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T01:40:44.146Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81170.3,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T01:45:48.909Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2041401476589283,"delta":18,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 55% likely; candle closed up (+0.04%). Brier 0.2041. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0344. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0224,"ret1":0.0077,"mom3":-0.0344,"rev20":-0.0164,"book":-0.0075}},"prev_hash":"8755fc22da4881b4ab8f3c3af5e06df251a40bceb29ba95ed581a9725c4ae20b","hash":"6112166eaf15e0220aa7ed905f567a294c12d7317c75fcaa8ce81abdba7508d2"},{"id":1789782300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81170.3,"price_at_lock":81220.6,"sigma":0.0013319788568838887,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T01:45:48.909Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T01:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.28220751550799894,"mom3":-0.8083124896643162,"rev20":-0.597486752573599,"book":1.730672620522504},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle +0.04%; three-candle momentum -0.11%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.6σ; order book 72/28 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.792 in log-odds). Raw model said 76%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81191.92,"band":108.12,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T01:45:48.909Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81328.4,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T01:50:45.615Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09000000000000002,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 70% likely; candle closed up (+0.19%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0255. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0147,"ret1":0.0044,"mom3":-0.0121,"rev20":-0.0088,"book":0.0255}},"prev_hash":"6112166eaf15e0220aa7ed905f567a294c12d7317c75fcaa8ce81abdba7508d2","hash":"f21fc0a160756c67dc9da904ae56561aa45e266345156fe92a4fe0b3d13ee7b0"},{"id":1789782600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81328.4,"price_at_lock":81407.7,"sigma":0.0013855791075462537,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T01:50:45.615Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T01:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.4057347882814135,"mom3":1.999159690441334,"rev20":0.6271477648803764,"book":1.6976096477591176},"fable":{"p":0.6411034993772531,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 64%. Last candle +0.19%; three-candle momentum +0.28%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.6σ; order book 71/29 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.14%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.820 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81344.3,"band":112.69,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T01:50:45.615Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81322.7,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T01:55:44.142Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.41101369691375955,"delta":-64,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 36% likely; candle closed down (-0.01%). Brier 0.4110. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0640. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0323,"ret1":-0.0449,"mom3":-0.064,"rev20":-0.0199,"book":-0.0549}},"prev_hash":"f21fc0a160756c67dc9da904ae56561aa45e266345156fe92a4fe0b3d13ee7b0","hash":"0009b0f82037c6395c7930f69d4ab8430487e8615405a85e4fac9743eb4acdda"},{"id":1789782900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81322.7,"price_at_lock":81293.1,"sigma":0.001366105204221715,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T01:55:44.142Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T02:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.05130367568161376,"mom3":1.6496276948477,"rev20":0.4299282569341134,"book":1.132410484197857},"fable":{"p":0.600438881212603,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 60%. Last candle -0.01%; three-candle momentum +0.23%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.4σ; order book 64/36 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.14%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.485 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81333.86,"band":111.1,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T01:55:44.142Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81286.4,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T02:01:03.511Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.36052685007184243,"delta":-44,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 40% likely; candle closed down (-0.04%). Brier 0.3605. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0494. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0303,"ret1":0.0018,"mom3":-0.0494,"rev20":-0.0127,"book":-0.0344}},"prev_hash":"0009b0f82037c6395c7930f69d4ab8430487e8615405a85e4fac9743eb4acdda","hash":"29d46de537e1fbbbac4d1d865e7172827450687dfe5d442d02fd108b386b1469"},{"id":1789783200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81286.4,"price_at_lock":81277.6,"sigma":0.0013552852420278738,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T02:01:03.511Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T02:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.3293548980947093,"mom3":1.056088163500076,"rev20":0.006944115298393977,"book":-0.9557245768922288},"fable":{"p":0.4238479463712605,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 42%. Last candle -0.04%; three-candle momentum +0.14%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.0σ; order book 38/62 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.14%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.376 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81278.01,"band":110.17,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T02:01:03.511Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81271,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T02:05:44.148Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.17964708164313492,"delta":28,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 58% likely; candle closed down (-0.02%). Brier 0.1796. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0222. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0214,"ret1":0.0072,"mom3":-0.0222,"rev20":0.0001,"book":0.0199}},"prev_hash":"29d46de537e1fbbbac4d1d865e7172827450687dfe5d442d02fd108b386b1469","hash":"4f908a90784c0e2d987d70ffcab5e90d59505cd5fe3a8de10f3399c78d0015db"},{"id":1789783500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81271,"price_at_lock":81280.5,"sigma":0.0013566661962648966,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T02:05:44.148Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T02:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.13964642655157708,"mom3":-0.5203266945081235,"rev20":-0.2236808121437871,"book":1.0324490471899803},"fable":{"p":0.6898527693580538,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 69%. Last candle -0.02%; three-candle momentum -0.07%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.2σ; order book 63/37 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.14%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.427 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81291.93,"band":110.26,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T02:05:44.148Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81357.7,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T02:10:47.219Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09619130467486854,"delta":62,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 69% likely; candle closed up (+0.11%). Brier 0.0962. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0156. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0153,"ret1":-0.002,"mom3":-0.0079,"rev20":-0.0033,"book":0.0156}},"prev_hash":"4f908a90784c0e2d987d70ffcab5e90d59505cd5fe3a8de10f3399c78d0015db","hash":"2174e07a0d6abca6953ccffba68ffabeb131a07311a794f111b7f61eea53947c"},{"id":1789783800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81357.7,"price_at_lock":81389.7,"sigma":0.001370623191504805,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T02:10:47.219Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T02:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.7783329529301906,"mom3":0.314439285400023,"rev20":0.44412874146717013,"book":1.6127530285190395},"fable":{"p":0.6377301869334572,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 64%. Last candle +0.11%; three-candle momentum +0.04%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.4σ; order book 70/30 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.14%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.692 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81373.06,"band":111.51,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T02:10:47.219Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81373.4,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T02:15:49.813Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.13123941745926787,"delta":48,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 64% likely; candle closed up (+0.02%). Brier 0.1312. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0288. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0179,"ret1":0.0143,"mom3":0.0059,"rev20":0.0083,"book":0.0288}},"prev_hash":"2174e07a0d6abca6953ccffba68ffabeb131a07311a794f111b7f61eea53947c","hash":"5b380f35d551a84dff6b4cc646f9a5c8af62d2a90c9a498ef5849463e9aa96a2"},{"id":1789784100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81373.4,"price_at_lock":81360.7,"sigma":0.001307152632139338,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T02:15:49.813Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T02:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.14763002325553912,"mom3":0.8188198966453983,"rev20":0.5627096526386672,"book":-0.6461786901027926},"fable":{"p":0.40080663856855553,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 40%. Last candle +0.02%; three-candle momentum +0.11%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.6σ; order book 42/58 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.296 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81362.85,"band":106.37,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T02:15:49.813Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81350.3,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T02:20:48.513Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.1606459615206247,"delta":36,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 60% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.1606. Largest weight change: bias -0.0203. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0203,"ret1":-0.0028,"mom3":-0.0162,"rev20":-0.0111,"book":0.0125}},"prev_hash":"5b380f35d551a84dff6b4cc646f9a5c8af62d2a90c9a498ef5849463e9aa96a2","hash":"e9649bf6fc28ff562d533a37d7bc90af7b7382d3719f15448e24e815aad24306"},{"id":1789784400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81350.3,"price_at_lock":81337.6,"sigma":0.0013090128668798156,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T02:20:48.513Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T02:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.21686307027352947,"mom3":0.7455233213000152,"rev20":0.31232070772819065,"book":0.6325655598763588},"fable":{"p":0.5728762946648543,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 57%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum +0.10%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.3σ; order book 58/42 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.297 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81358.06,"band":106.49,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T02:20:48.513Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81433.6,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T02:25:44.139Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.18243465965922434,"delta":27,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 57% likely; candle closed up (+0.10%). Brier 0.1824. Largest weight change: bias +0.0212. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0212,"ret1":-0.0044,"mom3":0.0162,"rev20":0.0069,"book":0.013}},"prev_hash":"e9649bf6fc28ff562d533a37d7bc90af7b7382d3719f15448e24e815aad24306","hash":"9c21c4bb90c7112c855972357efefabd7972ad90d1db7d5ef4b835c745ee78bf"},{"id":1789784700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81433.6,"price_at_lock":81385.7,"sigma":0.0013235628684400385,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T02:25:44.139Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T02:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.773644188812173,"mom3":0.7049647342691642,"rev20":1.0295364633974962,"book":1.3597643246978195},"fable":{"p":0.586597374147965,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 59%. Last candle +0.10%; three-candle momentum +0.09%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.0σ; order book 67/33 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.657 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81442.93,"band":107.78,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T02:25:44.139Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81345.6,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T02:30:56.507Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3440964793572876,"delta":-38,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 41% likely; candle closed down (-0.11%). Brier 0.3441. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0404. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0295,"ret1":-0.0225,"mom3":-0.0205,"rev20":-0.03,"book":-0.0404}},"prev_hash":"9c21c4bb90c7112c855972357efefabd7972ad90d1db7d5ef4b835c745ee78bf","hash":"28e9e0c1fbee3a76ed3943103b73aa31d2ec5b9e1e9302810993965a2b075a90"},{"id":1789785000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81345.6,"price_at_lock":81369.2,"sigma":0.0013453733622458101,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T02:30:56.507Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T02:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.8032231429273574,"mom3":-0.25312293050626844,"rev20":0.185535722289009,"book":1.9036267330069319},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle -0.11%; three-candle momentum -0.03%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.2σ; order book 74/26 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.843 in log-odds). Raw model said 77%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81367.49,"band":109.44,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T02:30:56.507Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81356.1,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T02:35:44.137Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09000000000000002,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 70% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0281. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0148,"ret1":-0.0118,"mom3":-0.0036,"rev20":0.003,"book":0.0281}},"prev_hash":"28e9e0c1fbee3a76ed3943103b73aa31d2ec5b9e1e9302810993965a2b075a90","hash":"a4d7e579675d3bce30abd1844a2902cbd9a7e852f9abc50217106771c9cbd182"},{"id":1789785300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81356.1,"price_at_lock":81334.1,"sigma":0.0012990288620511707,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T02:35:44.137Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T02:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.09936568523627526,"mom3":0.055742098114323395,"rev20":0.32307964508599263,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.3,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 30%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum +0.01%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.3σ; order book 24/76 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.942 in log-odds). Raw model said 30%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81334.96,"band":105.68,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T02:35:44.137Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81333.3,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T02:40:47.116Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 70% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0295. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0152,"ret1":-0.0013,"mom3":-0.0006,"rev20":-0.0046,"book":0.0295}},"prev_hash":"a4d7e579675d3bce30abd1844a2902cbd9a7e852f9abc50217106771c9cbd182","hash":"e05647e126e9c577fdc858037d0c97cfec9883f07d4e05d12ebe69d7dfd1b801"},{"id":1789785600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81333.3,"price_at_lock":81318.9,"sigma":0.0010867178351869104,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T02:40:47.116Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T02:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.25788609785483213,"mom3":-1.1335100147575572,"rev20":0.31995698767102365,"book":-1.8572587746502645},"fable":{"p":0.38105274917118676,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 38%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.12%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.3σ; order book 27/73 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.930 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81322.79,"band":88.39,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T02:40:47.116Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81319,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T02:45:48.313Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.14520119765091938,"delta":42,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 62% likely; candle closed down (-0.02%). Brier 0.1452. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0349. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0192,"ret1":0.0051,"mom3":0.0218,"rev20":-0.0059,"book":0.0349}},"prev_hash":"e05647e126e9c577fdc858037d0c97cfec9883f07d4e05d12ebe69d7dfd1b801","hash":"c7f909e5cb204a1d83c2add4b60e261eeccc8d8c00211884c221b6d38180c809"},{"id":1789785900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81319,"price_at_lock":81298.2,"sigma":0.0009972920998864295,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T02:45:48.313Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T02:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.17629713923180348,"mom3":-0.32787813439200236,"rev20":0.2847953259383569,"book":-1.1160341357904593},"fable":{"p":0.40434709552302556,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 40%. Last candle -0.02%; three-candle momentum -0.03%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.3σ; order book 36/64 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.598 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81311.24,"band":81.1,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T02:45:48.313Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81314,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T02:50:45.909Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.16349657365790676,"delta":35,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 60% likely; candle closed down (-0.01%). Brier 0.1635. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0220. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0204,"ret1":0.0038,"mom3":0.0068,"rev20":-0.0055,"book":0.022}},"prev_hash":"c7f909e5cb204a1d83c2add4b60e261eeccc8d8c00211884c221b6d38180c809","hash":"7c2ee4a58be238a67e0d2f7c2967ca922d90803b140c95f1dd6c0620f34ec2d3"},{"id":1789786200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81314,"price_at_lock":81291.9,"sigma":0.0009671053809165052,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T02:50:45.909Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T02:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.06357760668088355,"mom3":-0.5351592721058567,"rev20":0.288486221110283,"book":-1.8019364844819252},"fable":{"p":0.30977497202388227,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 31%. Last candle -0.01%; three-candle momentum -0.05%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.3σ; order book 27/73 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-1.005 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81299.04,"band":78.64,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T02:50:45.909Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81285.4,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T02:55:44.159Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09596053329239704,"delta":62,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 69% likely; candle closed down (-0.04%). Brier 0.0960. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0274. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0156,"ret1":0.0012,"mom3":0.0085,"rev20":-0.0042,"book":0.0274}},"prev_hash":"7c2ee4a58be238a67e0d2f7c2967ca922d90803b140c95f1dd6c0620f34ec2d3","hash":"afb81375fb7be5f2477a78dc2229e0f8c83172d4ea3705f3ac9584add4b0413e"},{"id":1789786500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81285.4,"price_at_lock":81301.7,"sigma":0.0009142095422782007,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T02:55:44.159Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T03:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.3847290301313247,"mom3":-0.6443040823933773,"rev20":-0.07945661446238904,"book":0.7571674953917151},"fable":{"p":0.6930632033811315,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 69%. Last candle -0.04%; three-candle momentum -0.06%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.1σ; order book 59/41 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.443 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81299.75,"band":74.31,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T02:55:44.159Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81298.9,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T03:01:13.712Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09421019711865267,"delta":62,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 69% likely; candle closed up (+0.02%). Brier 0.0942. Largest weight change: bias +0.0152. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0152,"ret1":-0.0057,"mom3":-0.0097,"rev20":-0.001,"book":0.011}},"prev_hash":"afb81375fb7be5f2477a78dc2229e0f8c83172d4ea3705f3ac9584add4b0413e","hash":"675f39a657ed14fd35e80f2b8a2006ab9fb1faebfa536acd0bfb25feb01a142f"},{"id":1789786800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81298.9,"price_at_lock":81319.1,"sigma":0.0008562546074832726,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T03:01:13.712Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T03:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.1939627352385474,"mom3":-0.2886147510057439,"rev20":0.017956806367255503,"book":0.8260431417227769},"fable":{"p":0.6578195915964403,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 66%. Last candle +0.02%; three-candle momentum -0.02%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.0σ; order book 60/40 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.492 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81309.89,"band":69.61,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T03:01:13.712Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81398.7,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T03:05:44.144Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.1170874318952269,"delta":53,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 66% likely; candle closed up (+0.12%). Brier 0.1171. Largest weight change: bias +0.0170. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.017,"ret1":0.0035,"mom3":-0.0047,"rev20":0.0006,"book":0.0135}},"prev_hash":"675f39a657ed14fd35e80f2b8a2006ab9fb1faebfa536acd0bfb25feb01a142f","hash":"772ce3bba25d86e38517e3dc468447a38c7f1dcc45b4ded90589798cb825b67d"},{"id":1789787100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81398.7,"price_at_lock":81352.7,"sigma":0.0008221412379713287,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T03:05:44.144Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T03:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.493136249587693,"mom3":1.267333849421623,"rev20":1.4421326738371578,"book":0.7587558778539458},"fable":{"p":0.4104182121273494,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 41%. Last candle +0.12%; three-candle momentum +0.10%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.4σ; order book 59/41 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (+0.462 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81392.71,"band":66.92,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T03:05:44.144Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81317,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T03:10:49.323Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.16844310884580999,"delta":33,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 59% likely; candle closed down (-0.10%). Brier 0.1684. Largest weight change: last-candle -0.0304. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0207,"ret1":-0.0304,"mom3":-0.0258,"rev20":-0.0293,"book":-0.0162}},"prev_hash":"772ce3bba25d86e38517e3dc468447a38c7f1dcc45b4ded90589798cb825b67d","hash":"626d1ef5ea399f8e67630591ffeaa78e6ee7b0643bece79fa823601ef04fa589"},{"id":1789787400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81317,"price_at_lock":81300.7,"sigma":0.0008432338178683448,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T03:10:49.323Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T03:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.1903003793824891,"mom3":0.46244449504277935,"rev20":0.1712385092626829,"book":-0.5955777438103983},"fable":{"p":0.4830719284173325,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 48%. Last candle -0.10%; three-candle momentum +0.04%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.2σ; order book 43/57 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: order book (-0.353 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81315.84,"band":68.57,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T03:10:49.323Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81285.2,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T03:15:50.119Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2333584880248404,"delta":7,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 52% likely; candle closed down (-0.04%). Brier 0.2334. Largest weight change: last-candle +0.0290. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0243,"ret1":0.029,"mom3":-0.0109,"rev20":-0.0038,"book":0.0138}},"prev_hash":"626d1ef5ea399f8e67630591ffeaa78e6ee7b0643bece79fa823601ef04fa589","hash":"3e599fe44b015023cd32899a38662689bd4151fa172dc751e869f7f51b96b4b8"},{"id":1789787700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81285.2,"price_at_lock":81245,"sigma":0.0007260724734936159,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T03:15:50.119Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T03:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.5385993186691084,"mom3":-0.2302728642838,"rev20":-0.4935628164318445,"book":-0.17739191006615418},"fable":{"p":0.5838876752005632,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 58%. Last candle -0.04%; three-candle momentum -0.02%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.5σ; order book 48/52 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.145 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81290.15,"band":59.02,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T03:15:50.119Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81189.1,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T03:20:47.414Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.34092481725111834,"delta":-36,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 42% likely; candle closed down (-0.12%). Brier 0.3409. Largest weight change: bias -0.0293. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0293,"ret1":0.016,"mom3":0.007,"rev20":0.0147,"book":0.0046}},"prev_hash":"3e599fe44b015023cd32899a38662689bd4151fa172dc751e869f7f51b96b4b8","hash":"22a25eaa7659b89321a5e6a55701c5f2fcbf909ccee4ce1790e4be37f84d21dc"},{"id":1789788000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81189.1,"price_at_lock":81191.4,"sigma":0.0007737780787038942,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T03:20:47.414Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T03:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.5279019568792904,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-2,"book":1.1119065761461693},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle -0.12%; three-candle momentum -0.26%; price below its 20-candle mean by 2.0σ; order book 64/36 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.680 in log-odds). Raw model said 90%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81201.66,"band":62.82,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T03:20:47.414Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81189.9,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T03:25:44.136Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09000000000000002,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 70% likely; candle closed up (+0.00%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0298. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0149,"ret1":-0.0227,"mom3":-0.0298,"rev20":-0.0297,"book":0.0161}},"prev_hash":"22a25eaa7659b89321a5e6a55701c5f2fcbf909ccee4ce1790e4be37f84d21dc","hash":"7037fdf4e6f8399207048e516f1a77aa9e01025d8ae45e4d571c3ddedbea2769"},{"id":1789788300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81189.9,"price_at_lock":81177.7,"sigma":0.0007697143796617155,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T03:25:44.136Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T03:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.012801553034702692,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-2,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.5058929632544998,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 51%. Last candle +0.00%; three-candle momentum -0.16%; price below its 20-candle mean by 2.0σ; order book 24/76 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: order book (-1.255 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81190.27,"band":62.49,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T03:25:44.136Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81140.5,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T03:30:54.805Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.25592769027041873,"delta":-2,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 49% likely; candle closed down (-0.06%). Brier 0.2559. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0509. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0254,"ret1":-0.0001,"mom3":0.0509,"rev20":0.0509,"book":0.05}},"prev_hash":"7037fdf4e6f8399207048e516f1a77aa9e01025d8ae45e4d571c3ddedbea2769","hash":"598d4a532eb6a41bea4786770b098c1561e361bec97cab5d06be1d3fba677789"},{"id":1789788600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81140.5,"price_at_lock":81139,"sigma":0.0006388341278228667,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T03:30:54.805Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T03:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.9524382610973292,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-2,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.47995184343804664,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 48%. Last candle -0.06%; three-candle momentum -0.18%; price below its 20-candle mean by 3.2σ; order book 17/83 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-1.355 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81139.46,"band":51.84,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T03:30:54.805Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81129.4,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T03:35:44.145Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.23035377201957924,"delta":8,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 52% likely; candle closed down (-0.01%). Brier 0.2304. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0483. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0241,"ret1":0.0231,"mom3":0.0482,"rev20":0.0483,"book":0.0473}},"prev_hash":"598d4a532eb6a41bea4786770b098c1561e361bec97cab5d06be1d3fba677789","hash":"a7af8f5da9e031a276dd043a28b11a56dde17577dc0d0353c7c0ba75ddc350a1"},{"id":1789788900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81129.4,"price_at_lock":81122.4,"sigma":0.0006387627610510009,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T03:35:44.145Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T03:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.21416362525459595,"mom3":-1.1512823223363022,"rev20":-2,"book":-1.956988483088101},"fable":{"p":0.3339628904293583,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 33%. Last candle -0.01%; three-candle momentum -0.07%; price below its 20-candle mean by 3.3σ; order book 26/74 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-1.419 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81120.8,"band":51.82,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T03:35:44.145Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81128,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T03:40:48.424Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.11153121218393157,"delta":55,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 67% likely; candle closed down (-0.00%). Brier 0.1115. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0336. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0168,"ret1":0.0038,"mom3":0.0194,"rev20":0.0336,"book":0.032}},"prev_hash":"a7af8f5da9e031a276dd043a28b11a56dde17577dc0d0353c7c0ba75ddc350a1","hash":"41ffc83a13f53c83d975c347eefa3eb4d783615e9c0db12b3ed518d2f810418d"},{"id":1789789200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81128,"price_at_lock":81133.6,"sigma":0.0006345920158810178,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T03:40:48.424Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T03:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.027192877598353343,"mom3":-1.201569163097173,"rev20":-2,"book":-0.4485000474168362},"fable":{"p":0.5624929820824764,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 56%. Last candle -0.00%; three-candle momentum -0.08%; price below its 20-candle mean by 3.2σ; order book 44/56 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.353 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81131.22,"band":51.48,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T03:40:48.424Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81174.3,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T03:45:52.394Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.19141239072708427,"delta":23,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 56% likely; candle closed up (+0.06%). Brier 0.1914. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0436. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0218,"ret1":-0.0004,"mom3":-0.0261,"rev20":-0.0436,"book":-0.0106}},"prev_hash":"41ffc83a13f53c83d975c347eefa3eb4d783615e9c0db12b3ed518d2f810418d","hash":"4fddfd06b88d0d4b6659e78701e4ea65535779d250e12ce51304cac2f1ec1a75"},{"id":1789789500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81174.3,"price_at_lock":81168.7,"sigma":0.0006505005100287622,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T03:45:52.394Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T03:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.8773291914181977,"mom3":0.6405021186919199,"rev20":-2,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.3,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 30%. Last candle +0.06%; three-candle momentum +0.04%; price below its 20-candle mean by 2.1σ; order book 24/76 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-1.493 in log-odds). Raw model said 22%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81163.74,"band":52.8,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T03:45:52.394Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81183.1,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T03:50:47.411Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 30% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0707. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0349,"ret1":0.0309,"mom3":0.0226,"rev20":-0.0698,"book":-0.0707}},"prev_hash":"4fddfd06b88d0d4b6659e78701e4ea65535779d250e12ce51304cac2f1ec1a75","hash":"a2404a2ca621e1eaf0c09a28b764c86b2cc43d4a9322c527d0daad114346cc5a"},{"id":1789789800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81183.1,"price_at_lock":81173.1,"sigma":0.0005990445374549105,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T03:50:47.411Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T03:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.18096934213994678,"mom3":1.1048517396312547,"rev20":-1.9335087161691773,"book":-0.6544834220175378},"fable":{"p":0.5004484845840126,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 50%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum +0.07%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.9σ; order book 42/58 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.560 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81183.12,"band":48.63,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T03:50:47.411Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81177.1,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T03:55:44.139Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.25044868572243467,"delta":0,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 50% likely; candle closed down (-0.01%). Brier 0.2504. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0487. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0251,"ret1":-0.0044,"mom3":-0.0275,"rev20":0.0487,"book":0.0157}},"prev_hash":"a2404a2ca621e1eaf0c09a28b764c86b2cc43d4a9322c527d0daad114346cc5a","hash":"6c7c41f02cb67dc7526102ff66f289e26f9caec7d02941e2a60ec8f36d0f0ec9"},{"id":1789790100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81177.1,"price_at_lock":81180,"sigma":0.0005951685098834702,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T03:55:44.139Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T04:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.12417828986578265,"mom3":1.0168628960487212,"rev20":-1.8674609377220237,"book":-0.5673467621711131},"fable":{"p":0.4893135502768771,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 49%. Last candle -0.01%; three-candle momentum +0.06%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.9σ; order book 43/57 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.450 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81176.58,"band":48.31,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T03:55:44.139Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81130.9,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T04:01:15.813Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.23942775048456194,"delta":4,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 51% likely; candle closed down (-0.06%). Brier 0.2394. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0459. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0245,"ret1":0.0032,"mom3":-0.0247,"rev20":0.0459,"book":0.0132}},"prev_hash":"6c7c41f02cb67dc7526102ff66f289e26f9caec7d02941e2a60ec8f36d0f0ec9","hash":"a07d37d760211e21db8e600be26da10958ebd46b721c1a59ec88d0356fa998c8"},{"id":1789790400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81130.9,"price_at_lock":81130.8,"sigma":0.000602286127156943,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T04:01:15.813Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T04:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.944942937139458,"mom3":-0.8876583898773259,"rev20":-2,"book":-1.1082302917095723},"fable":{"p":0.5038299975112595,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 50%. Last candle -0.06%; three-candle momentum -0.05%; price below its 20-candle mean by 2.6σ; order book 36/64 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: order book (-0.781 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81131.09,"band":48.86,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T04:01:15.813Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81143,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T04:05:44.415Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2461846713696768,"delta":2,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 50% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.2462. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0494. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0248,"ret1":-0.0233,"mom3":-0.0218,"rev20":-0.0494,"book":-0.0282}},"prev_hash":"a07d37d760211e21db8e600be26da10958ebd46b721c1a59ec88d0356fa998c8","hash":"97913334aa01c01f85c99c8ad2614bef4eddfce50bc3bb366dab7c735d5e3455"},{"id":1789790700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81143,"price_at_lock":81143,"sigma":0.0005456426106908982,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T04:05:44.415Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T04:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.2733322009352054,"mom3":-0.905155360582601,"rev20":-2,"book":-1.2482649514085953},"fable":{"p":0.4693219526211956,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 47%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum -0.05%; price below its 20-candle mean by 2.2σ; order book 34/66 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.844 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81141.64,"band":44.28,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T04:05:44.415Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81185.9,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T04:10:50.227Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2816191899697806,"delta":-13,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 47% likely; candle closed up (+0.05%). Brier 0.2816. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0528. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0265,"ret1":0.0075,"mom3":-0.0238,"rev20":-0.0528,"book":-0.0338}},"prev_hash":"97913334aa01c01f85c99c8ad2614bef4eddfce50bc3bb366dab7c735d5e3455","hash":"293799ae246132b50f1f4d7be86194f402614dfe6610e2f375057604b45d89d3"},{"id":1789791000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81185.9,"price_at_lock":81191.6,"sigma":0.0005249553415901379,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T04:10:50.227Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T04:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.007126150376505,"mom3":0.20708795090284082,"rev20":-1.1265309339282643,"book":0.07319705545942405},"fable":{"p":0.5577190671035923,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 56%. Last candle +0.05%; three-candle momentum +0.01%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.1σ; order book 51/49 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.335 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81188.36,"band":42.62,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T04:10:50.227Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81207.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T04:15:54.015Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.19561242360371667,"delta":22,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 56% likely; candle closed up (+0.03%). Brier 0.1956. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0246. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.022,"ret1":0.0225,"mom3":0.0048,"rev20":-0.0246,"book":0.001}},"prev_hash":"293799ae246132b50f1f4d7be86194f402614dfe6610e2f375057604b45d89d3","hash":"2f7bbc04d572495ea8d54436bbc69e6343d2fe768bcc4638d9fb75ee3a9f24de"},{"id":1789791300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81207.5,"price_at_lock":81223.6,"sigma":0.0005287545576642636,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T04:15:54.015Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T04:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.5031749566006123,"mom3":1.7851269287854672,"rev20":-0.44261914955202003,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle +0.03%; three-candle momentum +0.09%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.4σ; order book 75/25 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+1.287 in log-odds). Raw model said 73%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81216.09,"band":42.94,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T04:15:54.015Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81144.6,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T04:20:47.921Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 30% likely; candle closed down (-0.08%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0706. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0351,"ret1":-0.0174,"mom3":-0.0622,"rev20":0.0158,"book":-0.0706}},"prev_hash":"2f7bbc04d572495ea8d54436bbc69e6343d2fe768bcc4638d9fb75ee3a9f24de","hash":"10e1a5ac5f46813550c1b5ede253f5ad9a19fc9c6f2bc2fd0154364e5d4433b5"},{"id":1789791600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81144.6,"price_at_lock":81137.8,"sigma":0.0005482054683966792,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T04:20:47.921Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T04:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.4128990766137648,"mom3":0.03683528343328094,"rev20":-1.627786776721463,"book":-1.8339776624919897},"fable":{"p":0.4467827640150262,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 45%. Last candle -0.08%; three-candle momentum +0.00%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.6σ; order book 27/73 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-1.051 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81142.23,"band":44.48,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T04:20:47.921Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81147.6,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T04:25:44.142Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.30604931019085424,"delta":-22,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 45% likely; candle closed up (+0.00%). Brier 0.3060. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0513. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0276,"ret1":-0.0389,"mom3":0.0013,"rev20":-0.0447,"book":-0.0513}},"prev_hash":"10e1a5ac5f46813550c1b5ede253f5ad9a19fc9c6f2bc2fd0154364e5d4433b5","hash":"7dac157890c17dfb92b18cc9715379479ad169b00a60757992a5d807d33f55be"},{"id":1789791900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81147.6,"price_at_lock":81127.8,"sigma":0.0005490052255264265,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T04:25:44.142Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T04:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.06734186701820563,"mom3":-0.8588841957658099,"rev20":-1.366076290766653,"book":-0.2559241515115475},"fable":{"p":0.6717300058604423,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 67%. Last candle +0.00%; three-candle momentum -0.05%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.4σ; order book 47/53 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.479 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81155.25,"band":44.55,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T04:25:44.142Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81140.9,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T04:30:56.911Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.4512212007732698,"delta":-80,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 33% likely; candle closed down (-0.01%). Brier 0.4512. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0462. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0337,"ret1":-0.002,"mom3":0.0292,"rev20":0.0462,"book":0.0081}},"prev_hash":"7dac157890c17dfb92b18cc9715379479ad169b00a60757992a5d807d33f55be","hash":"8abff2be54a8fb9b8cf5a5d85b95fc10e34deb36f1b77d123c1e0b7f77283d51"},{"id":1789792200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81140.9,"price_at_lock":81094.4,"sigma":0.0005489402498402677,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T04:30:56.911Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T04:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.1504090773852321,"mom3":-1.4940670864621932,"rev20":-1.3225238320462973,"book":-1.0794321554334614},"fable":{"p":0.5927955772034555,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 59%. Last candle -0.01%; three-candle momentum -0.08%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.3σ; order book 37/63 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (-0.572 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81145.03,"band":44.54,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T04:30:56.911Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81004.1,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T04:35:45.618Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.351406596351978,"delta":-41,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 41% likely; candle closed down (-0.17%). Brier 0.3514. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0446. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0297,"ret1":0.0047,"mom3":0.0446,"rev20":0.0395,"book":0.0315}},"prev_hash":"8abff2be54a8fb9b8cf5a5d85b95fc10e34deb36f1b77d123c1e0b7f77283d51","hash":"3aac92c1fcfce3e828f1b8f8c633ed0ec93bd2778eefa52c6abe051c46645c35"},{"id":1789792500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81004.1,"price_at_lock":81014.7,"sigma":0.0006470132580862933,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T04:35:45.618Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T04:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-2,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-2,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.5970091437608245,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 60%. Last candle -0.17%; three-candle momentum -0.17%; price below its 20-candle mean by 3.5σ; order book 23/77 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (-1.122 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81009.18,"band":52.41,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T04:35:45.618Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":80934.5,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T04:40:53.114Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3564199177340328,"delta":-43,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 40% likely; candle closed down (-0.09%). Brier 0.3564. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0600. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0299,"ret1":0.0599,"mom3":0.0599,"rev20":0.06,"book":0.0591}},"prev_hash":"3aac92c1fcfce3e828f1b8f8c633ed0ec93bd2778eefa52c6abe051c46645c35","hash":"660303d8cb476d5746782c0221ea70b39dc664fc80c09d9e8628135da20d06a1"},{"id":1789792800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":80934.5,"price_at_lock":80929.6,"sigma":0.0006586218856641444,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T04:40:53.114Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T04:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.304566074697628,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-2,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.4430283881007903,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 44%. Last candle -0.09%; three-candle momentum -0.26%; price below its 20-candle mean by 4.4σ; order book 19/81 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-1.240 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":80931.46,"band":53.31,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T04:40:53.114Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":80973.9,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T04:45:51.809Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3102173764616038,"delta":-24,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 44% likely; candle closed up (+0.05%). Brier 0.3102. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0563. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0278,"ret1":-0.0362,"mom3":-0.0555,"rev20":-0.0555,"book":-0.0563}},"prev_hash":"660303d8cb476d5746782c0221ea70b39dc664fc80c09d9e8628135da20d06a1","hash":"0238e97a3f5d2362ca6b5d427cd25038ee52702d5fb4c39ed9ce4b53c5dbf620"},{"id":1789793100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":80973.9,"price_at_lock":80968.3,"sigma":0.0005935432129285432,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T04:45:51.809Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T04:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.8201819180823613,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-2,"book":1.7212204168678085},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle +0.05%; three-candle momentum -0.21%; price below its 20-candle mean by 3.6σ; order book 72/28 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.971 in log-odds). Raw model said 86%, capped by policy.","expected_close":80983.51,"band":48.06,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T04:45:51.809Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":80982.8,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T04:50:51.420Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09000000000000002,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 70% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0298. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.015,"ret1":0.0125,"mom3":-0.0298,"rev20":-0.0297,"book":0.0253}},"prev_hash":"0238e97a3f5d2362ca6b5d427cd25038ee52702d5fb4c39ed9ce4b53c5dbf620","hash":"cd0cd1b75edbc55eaa06f2603a857bd66f8b64653ddabde2fa451c9ac2217e61"},{"id":1789793400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":80982.8,"price_at_lock":81017.9,"sigma":0.0005731818582420808,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T04:50:51.420Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T04:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.19175756822249837,"mom3":-0.4579530810092511,"rev20":-2,"book":0.13924275166748407},"fable":{"p":0.692585799126015,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 69%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum -0.03%; price below its 20-candle mean by 3.2σ; order book 52/48 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.581 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":80991.74,"band":46.42,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T04:50:51.420Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81010.6,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T04:55:44.715Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09450349089899078,"delta":62,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 69% likely; candle closed up (+0.03%). Brier 0.0945. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0305. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0153,"ret1":0.0031,"mom3":-0.0068,"rev20":-0.0305,"book":0.0016}},"prev_hash":"cd0cd1b75edbc55eaa06f2603a857bd66f8b64653ddabde2fa451c9ac2217e61","hash":"453f0376d4e5a387d3859c54a169faf307d7fc559514af8405a002a115ac755c"},{"id":1789793700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81010.6,"price_at_lock":81008.1,"sigma":0.0005835603093197821,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T04:55:44.715Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T05:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.5882558592042052,"mom3":1.6108157567850012,"rev20":-2,"book":-1.4253689830827694},"fable":{"p":0.3371766249115203,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 34%. Last candle +0.03%; three-candle momentum +0.09%; price below its 20-candle mean by 2.2σ; order book 32/68 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.842 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81002.9,"band":47.27,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T04:55:44.715Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81026.2,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T05:01:12.917Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.43933482656368356,"delta":-76,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 34% likely; candle closed up (+0.02%). Brier 0.4393. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0660. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0331,"ret1":0.0197,"mom3":0.0537,"rev20":-0.066,"book":-0.0478}},"prev_hash":"453f0376d4e5a387d3859c54a169faf307d7fc559514af8405a002a115ac755c","hash":"f35f56e682c5c59673e31dc6b0d8c1a6d749bca7d50167245272c956c574da51"},{"id":1789794000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81026.2,"price_at_lock":81028.7,"sigma":0.0005394637008424711,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T05:01:12.917Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T05:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.35696079664762725,"mom3":1.1970446238530317,"rev20":-1.8635720119957875,"book":0.4385393297712924},"fable":{"p":0.6779604617003009,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 68%. Last candle +0.02%; three-candle momentum +0.06%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.9σ; order book 55/45 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.721 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81033.98,"band":43.71,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T05:01:12.917Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81063,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T05:05:44.137Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.10370946422828337,"delta":59,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 68% likely; candle closed up (+0.05%). Brier 0.1037. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0296. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.016,"ret1":0.0059,"mom3":0.0195,"rev20":-0.0296,"book":0.0065}},"prev_hash":"f35f56e682c5c59673e31dc6b0d8c1a6d749bca7d50167245272c956c574da51","hash":"019a20b22c506294af768a7714b0db5fcec70d28a5a7316fcdde22bcf288cebc"},{"id":1789794300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81063,"price_at_lock":81068.9,"sigma":0.0005525320364479668,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T05:05:44.137Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T05:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.8219868749753813,"mom3":1.791795190555374,"rev20":-0.8568185956932517,"book":-0.6096980017675855},"fable":{"p":0.4144152085623566,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 41%. Last candle +0.05%; three-candle momentum +0.10%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.9σ; order book 42/58 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.363 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81059.17,"band":44.79,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T05:05:44.137Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81126.7,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T05:10:50.905Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.34290954796306833,"delta":-37,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 41% likely; candle closed up (+0.08%). Brier 0.3429. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0527. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0292,"ret1":0.0242,"mom3":0.0527,"rev20":-0.0247,"book":-0.0184}},"prev_hash":"019a20b22c506294af768a7714b0db5fcec70d28a5a7316fcdde22bcf288cebc","hash":"dcec1b82b4a58b3256014209f30f44d6642bfae2dae87947d5f50e31805bc6a8"},{"id":1789794600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81126.7,"price_at_lock":81088.6,"sigma":0.0005689278428401136,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T05:10:50.905Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T05:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.3812095479829447,"mom3":2,"rev20":0.5633885339163761,"book":-0.970403848586819},"fable":{"p":0.3,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 30%. Last candle +0.08%; three-candle momentum +0.14%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.6σ; order book 38/62 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.515 in log-odds). Raw model said 25%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81117.47,"band":46.16,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T05:10:50.905Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81046.3,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T05:15:51.527Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 70% likely; candle closed down (-0.10%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0298. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0152,"ret1":-0.0206,"mom3":-0.0298,"rev20":-0.008,"book":0.014}},"prev_hash":"dcec1b82b4a58b3256014209f30f44d6642bfae2dae87947d5f50e31805bc6a8","hash":"ffe13a8375854b74361bcb5a0ceffadac0198850fc63fcc146f75095eb87b795"},{"id":1789794900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81046.3,"price_at_lock":81046.4,"sigma":0.0006077124757908142,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T05:15:51.527Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T05:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.6307751543485103,"mom3":0.4096349079826396,"rev20":-1.019613401512571,"book":-1.7686705892722905},"fable":{"p":0.45362922617666596,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 45%. Last candle -0.10%; three-candle momentum +0.02%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.0σ; order book 28/72 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.964 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81044.02,"band":49.25,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T05:15:51.527Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81078.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T05:20:53.824Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2985210224883089,"delta":-19,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 45% likely; candle closed up (+0.04%). Brier 0.2985. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0489. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0272,"ret1":-0.0444,"mom3":0.0114,"rev20":-0.0274,"book":-0.0489}},"prev_hash":"ffe13a8375854b74361bcb5a0ceffadac0198850fc63fcc146f75095eb87b795","hash":"8271d56333ebc540c959df1e7ed9fdfcdd6337825c1d051ba75fbf875675dd4f"},{"id":1789795200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81078.5,"price_at_lock":81052.9,"sigma":0.0006155314377406159,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T05:20:53.824Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T05:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.6454646164990233,"mom3":0.3120391807219141,"rev20":-0.31202449709784985,"book":0.5135717539769976},"fable":{"p":0.5961813809102375,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 60%. Last candle +0.04%; three-candle momentum +0.02%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.3σ; order book 56/44 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.255 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81083.3,"band":49.91,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T05:20:53.824Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81087.1,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T05:25:46.428Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.16306947712356268,"delta":35,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 60% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.1631. Largest weight change: bias +0.0200. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.02,"ret1":0.0132,"mom3":0.0065,"rev20":-0.0058,"book":0.0099}},"prev_hash":"8271d56333ebc540c959df1e7ed9fdfcdd6337825c1d051ba75fbf875675dd4f","hash":"868b9c134b746ccf1db9c0b9447fd2e0991577c0e2705a37db09ddb3ab5fc0b9"},{"id":1789795500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81087.1,"price_at_lock":81091.2,"sigma":0.0006010054961711665,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T05:25:46.428Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T05:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.17648764263475636,"mom3":-0.8114211982751518,"rev20":-0.05365713445040943,"book":1.067007857188452},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum -0.05%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.1σ; order book 63/37 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.540 in log-odds). Raw model said 70%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81096.85,"band":48.73,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T05:25:46.428Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81072.2,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T05:31:01.307Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 30% likely; candle closed down (-0.02%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0379. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0352,"ret1":-0.006,"mom3":0.0286,"rev20":0.0024,"book":-0.0379}},"prev_hash":"868b9c134b746ccf1db9c0b9447fd2e0991577c0e2705a37db09ddb3ab5fc0b9","hash":"aaef28a0cb3965fc851666e9879c74f76747e130821020f68d0ceeac53816d78"},{"id":1789795800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81072.2,"price_at_lock":81069.3,"sigma":0.0006004415690574322,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T05:31:01.307Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T05:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.3060298212790183,"mom3":0.532309548568929,"rev20":-0.2458596866224448,"book":-0.3682521965011922},"fable":{"p":0.5214453769411702,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 52%. Last candle -0.02%; three-candle momentum +0.03%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.2σ; order book 45/55 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (-0.172 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81073.24,"band":48.68,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T05:31:01.307Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81093.4,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T05:35:48.029Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.22901452725097865,"delta":8,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 52% likely; candle closed up (+0.03%). Brier 0.2290. Largest weight change: bias +0.0238. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0238,"ret1":-0.0071,"mom3":0.0129,"rev20":-0.0054,"book":-0.0093}},"prev_hash":"aaef28a0cb3965fc851666e9879c74f76747e130821020f68d0ceeac53816d78","hash":"cc95b7a18787f8e00b7b178b00dd02d65c9806ef7420f15c5fa11758a6724189"},{"id":1789796100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81093.4,"price_at_lock":81079.2,"sigma":0.0006047156649114547,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T05:35:48.029Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T05:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.43242688141339786,"mom3":0.3039648829157523,"rev20":0.2736061142914674,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.3,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 30%. Last candle +0.03%; three-candle momentum +0.02%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.3σ; order book 23/77 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.918 in log-odds). Raw model said 27%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81083.59,"band":49.04,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T05:35:48.029Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81110.1,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T05:40:49.523Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 30% likely; candle closed up (+0.02%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0705. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0348,"ret1":0.0153,"mom3":0.0108,"rev20":0.0101,"book":-0.0705}},"prev_hash":"cc95b7a18787f8e00b7b178b00dd02d65c9806ef7420f15c5fa11758a6724189","hash":"e0f16ad8da4e2764adf3a75abae9dc4d812b93484b672ffc50b28eb5cf86920b"},{"id":1789796400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81110.1,"price_at_lock":81066.1,"sigma":0.0005950529471733164,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T05:40:49.523Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T05:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.34607908287254496,"mom3":0.4767267561958181,"rev20":0.645749466541651,"book":0.4981432437190763},"fable":{"p":0.49534480639114414,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 50%. Last candle +0.02%; three-candle momentum +0.03%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.6σ; order book 56/44 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.307 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81109.88,"band":48.26,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T05:40:49.523Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81028.9,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T05:45:49.911Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.24536647721868007,"delta":2,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 50% likely; candle closed down (-0.10%). Brier 0.2454. Largest weight change: bias -0.0250. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.025,"ret1":-0.0084,"mom3":-0.0117,"rev20":-0.0155,"book":-0.0127}},"prev_hash":"e0f16ad8da4e2764adf3a75abae9dc4d812b93484b672ffc50b28eb5cf86920b","hash":"0e6a0b815862eb4da65d711491c7e9b831cb73340f99f2a4b78dafe03f929a7f"},{"id":1789796700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81028.9,"price_at_lock":81048.1,"sigma":0.0006311297588557476,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T05:45:49.911Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T05:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.5862163935926992,"mom3":-0.8455910613546848,"rev20":-0.866561721181176,"book":1.891636667832336},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle -0.10%; three-candle momentum -0.05%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.9σ; order book 74/26 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.711 in log-odds). Raw model said 85%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81039.13,"band":51.14,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T05:45:49.911Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81021.7,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T05:50:53.415Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 30% likely; candle closed down (-0.01%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0666. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0352,"ret1":0.0557,"mom3":0.0297,"rev20":0.0308,"book":-0.0666}},"prev_hash":"0e6a0b815862eb4da65d711491c7e9b831cb73340f99f2a4b78dafe03f929a7f","hash":"bfad0521c10acda38404d3fa95e24e2dd347cc34d40cb85099e9669f8c2b181c"},{"id":1789797000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81021.7,"price_at_lock":81053.9,"sigma":0.0006160013353775428,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T05:50:53.415Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T05:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.14424836509193664,"mom3":-1.4351108131018775,"rev20":-0.867707772448424,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.5208845481583795,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 52%. Last candle -0.01%; three-candle momentum -0.09%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.9σ; order book 21/79 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (-0.618 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81022.74,"band":49.91,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T05:50:53.415Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81069.9,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T05:55:44.217Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2295516161934002,"delta":8,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 52% likely; candle closed up (+0.06%). Brier 0.2296. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0482. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0238,"ret1":-0.0033,"mom3":-0.0343,"rev20":-0.0203,"book":-0.0482}},"prev_hash":"bfad0521c10acda38404d3fa95e24e2dd347cc34d40cb85099e9669f8c2b181c","hash":"82443209aa15abf01a571dbe9b5bb2feaa728a24525daf23ee0bf0ada60f811d"},{"id":1789797300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81069.9,"price_at_lock":81064,"sigma":0.000629814171326492,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T05:55:44.217Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T06:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.9445680653186354,"mom3":-0.7860464637387338,"rev20":0.23015941798268932,"book":-0.3956479660077056},"fable":{"p":0.48192758320727275,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 48%. Last candle +0.06%; three-candle momentum -0.05%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.2σ; order book 45/55 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: last candle (-0.132 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81068.98,"band":51.06,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T05:55:44.217Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81046.3,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T06:01:40.614Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2322541954560028,"delta":7,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 52% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.2323. Largest weight change: bias -0.0243. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0243,"ret1":-0.0226,"mom3":0.0191,"rev20":-0.0051,"book":0.0093}},"prev_hash":"82443209aa15abf01a571dbe9b5bb2feaa728a24525daf23ee0bf0ada60f811d","hash":"e7a1b755ac1271e21a12aeb3aaedda834f900d7fd651c5cd14169d2b76ef6e82"},{"id":1789797600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81046.3,"price_at_lock":81031.4,"sigma":0.0006118915147127276,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T06:01:40.614Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T06:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.4757490556677655,"mom3":0.3512687336458241,"rev20":-0.13983042625830513,"book":0.08574292425761115},"fable":{"p":0.5698603090553487,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 57%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum +0.02%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.1σ; order book 51/49 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: last candle (+0.077 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81049.76,"band":49.59,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T06:01:40.614Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81022.4,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T06:05:44.415Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3247407718366575,"delta":-30,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 43% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.3247. Largest weight change: bias -0.0286. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0286,"ret1":0.0137,"mom3":-0.0099,"rev20":0.0045,"book":-0.0027}},"prev_hash":"e7a1b755ac1271e21a12aeb3aaedda834f900d7fd651c5cd14169d2b76ef6e82","hash":"e6784fe2089be429eef3a3216a0ff22178dcbc2627b946506f63fa98b4eda779"},{"id":1789797900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81022.4,"price_at_lock":81025.5,"sigma":0.0006135230841218944,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T06:05:44.415Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T06:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.4806553716349313,"mom3":0.01451025601090208,"rev20":-0.49422625024103584,"book":0.4074617958534253},"fable":{"p":0.631445448735109,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 63%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum +0.00%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.5σ; order book 55/45 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.238 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81028.93,"band":49.71,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T06:05:44.415Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81042.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T06:10:55.418Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.13583245725806517,"delta":46,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 63% likely; candle closed up (+0.02%). Brier 0.1358. Largest weight change: bias +0.0183. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0183,"ret1":-0.0087,"mom3":0.0004,"rev20":-0.0086,"book":0.0072}},"prev_hash":"e6784fe2089be429eef3a3216a0ff22178dcbc2627b946506f63fa98b4eda779","hash":"93179290b81f24a5167ee277610b72bb5895937b36f6b8570aa546c3019b1346"},{"id":1789798200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81042.5,"price_at_lock":81026,"sigma":0.0006175920432354942,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T06:10:55.418Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T06:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.4016883736638079,"mom3":-0.5471580091861559,"rev20":0.008890943980588902,"book":1.76483842973029},"fable":{"p":0.6504271798125988,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 65%. Last candle +0.02%; three-candle momentum -0.03%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.0σ; order book 72/28 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.485 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81050.03,"band":50.05,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T06:10:55.418Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81007.3,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T06:15:57.117Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.4230555162389707,"delta":-69,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 35% likely; candle closed down (-0.04%). Brier 0.4231. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0577. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0327,"ret1":-0.0129,"mom3":0.0179,"rev20":0.0002,"book":-0.0577}},"prev_hash":"93179290b81f24a5167ee277610b72bb5895937b36f6b8570aa546c3019b1346","hash":"ee734061918e6e32a52f686ee19f18e7a12fb39cd27a6ad122dc579e9b1101f7"},{"id":1789798500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81007.3,"price_at_lock":81022.6,"sigma":0.0005023777757163421,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T06:15:57.117Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T06:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.8645685135398354,"mom3":-0.957752616884162,"rev20":-0.857571471771477,"book":1.6538524755369166},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle -0.04%; three-candle momentum -0.05%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.9σ; order book 71/29 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.420 in log-odds). Raw model said 76%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81015.44,"band":40.7,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T06:15:57.117Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":80988.9,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T06:20:54.734Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 30% likely; candle closed down (-0.02%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0581. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0351,"ret1":0.0304,"mom3":0.0336,"rev20":0.0305,"book":-0.0581}},"prev_hash":"ee734061918e6e32a52f686ee19f18e7a12fb39cd27a6ad122dc579e9b1101f7","hash":"51e73a17ae568211f77b6b658d8c87655eceaa9d8149d46faba147b45658bf5e"},{"id":1789798800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":80988.9,"price_at_lock":80982,"sigma":0.00046574547661485484,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T06:20:54.734Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T06:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.48769131336306154,"mom3":-0.8876103092604276,"rev20":-1.484515896014419,"book":1.1866128534027431},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle -0.02%; three-candle momentum -0.04%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.5σ; order book 65/35 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.681 in log-odds). Raw model said 74%, capped by policy.","expected_close":80996.44,"band":37.72,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T06:20:54.734Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":80951.8,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T06:25:48.023Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 30% likely; candle closed down (-0.05%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0524. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0351,"ret1":0.0172,"mom3":0.0311,"rev20":0.0524,"book":-0.0417}},"prev_hash":"51e73a17ae568211f77b6b658d8c87655eceaa9d8149d46faba147b45658bf5e","hash":"bb961d6146ec439dba83be39fbe07a47e01bc1e5e7d1b8a63bb50f061a80a1b5"},{"id":1789799100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":80951.8,"price_at_lock":80938.8,"sigma":0.00046531108049560117,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T06:25:48.023Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T06:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.9844757314162734,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-2,"book":-0.4535914131692612},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle -0.05%; three-candle momentum -0.11%; price below its 20-candle mean by 2.4σ; order book 44/56 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.813 in log-odds). Raw model said 73%, capped by policy.","expected_close":80959.33,"band":37.67,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T06:25:48.023Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":80966.2,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T06:30:58.829Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09000000000000002,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 70% likely; candle closed up (+0.02%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0300. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.015,"ret1":-0.0146,"mom3":-0.03,"rev20":-0.0296,"book":-0.0069}},"prev_hash":"bb961d6146ec439dba83be39fbe07a47e01bc1e5e7d1b8a63bb50f061a80a1b5","hash":"1a1ef2fbc2327148037ae6e3b22ec3bc6718f7fa2b276c396709b33316c230ca"},{"id":1789799400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":80966.2,"price_at_lock":80998.6,"sigma":0.0004664471902880237,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T06:30:58.829Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T06:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.38135856152954767,"mom3":-1.0876769557968404,"rev20":-2,"book":-0.1474123535114095},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle +0.02%; three-candle momentum -0.05%; price below its 20-candle mean by 2.0σ; order book 48/52 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.872 in log-odds). Raw model said 72%, capped by policy.","expected_close":80973.75,"band":37.77,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T06:30:58.829Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81061.8,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T06:35:45.921Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09000000000000002,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 70% likely; candle closed up (+0.12%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0296. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0149,"ret1":0.0059,"mom3":-0.0163,"rev20":-0.0296,"book":-0.0023}},"prev_hash":"1a1ef2fbc2327148037ae6e3b22ec3bc6718f7fa2b276c396709b33316c230ca","hash":"c665ebc47b638b9e520c69681274b8fc26cc40a176c627d800a8d221e823aa9c"},{"id":1789799700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81061.8,"price_at_lock":81067.3,"sigma":0.0005296074811521257,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T06:35:45.921Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T06:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":2,"mom3":1.7003834208009025,"rev20":0.3783577953427451,"book":-0.9784268146050372},"fable":{"p":0.35093973222682995,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 35%. Last candle +0.12%; three-candle momentum +0.09%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.4σ; order book 38/62 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: last candle (-0.264 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81055.4,"band":42.93,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T06:35:45.921Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81078,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T06:40:55.525Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.42127923120177924,"delta":-69,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 35% likely; candle closed up (+0.02%). Brier 0.4213. Largest weight change: last-candle +0.0650. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0324,"ret1":0.065,"mom3":0.0553,"rev20":0.0127,"book":-0.0319}},"prev_hash":"c665ebc47b638b9e520c69681274b8fc26cc40a176c627d800a8d221e823aa9c","hash":"cd42673c7dbf0a864362691e771dd7b3a274f93879826416a5a049701835f789"},{"id":1789800000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81078,"price_at_lock":81089.7,"sigma":0.0005297203905878935,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T06:40:55.525Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T06:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.3772698338444462,"mom3":2,"rev20":0.6952716780785494,"book":1.2093603889081626},"fable":{"p":0.45053796372180455,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 45%. Last candle +0.02%; three-candle momentum +0.16%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.7σ; order book 65/35 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.315 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81075.88,"band":42.95,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T06:40:55.525Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81067.4,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T06:45:59.320Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.20298445675459006,"delta":19,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 55% likely; candle closed down (-0.01%). Brier 0.2030. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0450. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0226,"ret1":-0.0084,"mom3":-0.045,"rev20":-0.0152,"book":-0.0273}},"prev_hash":"cd42673c7dbf0a864362691e771dd7b3a274f93879826416a5a049701835f789","hash":"aeb79d62449d92ea01ee4530061394724b2d3a96bc54c41d1b573ff3f0288354"},{"id":1789800300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81067.4,"price_at_lock":81072.8,"sigma":0.0005216959035605951,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T06:45:59.320Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T06:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.2506025071244835,"mom3":2,"rev20":0.4500669027248811,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.4607428951909978,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 46%. Last candle -0.01%; three-candle momentum +0.12%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.5σ; order book 81/19 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.211 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81065.74,"band":42.29,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T06:45:59.320Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81074.1,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T06:50:53.126Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2907982250869872,"delta":-16,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 46% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.2908. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0540. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0269,"ret1":-0.0067,"mom3":0.054,"rev20":0.0126,"book":0.0539}},"prev_hash":"aeb79d62449d92ea01ee4530061394724b2d3a96bc54c41d1b573ff3f0288354","hash":"a448fe5bee1d1bf81ff5e6439aef35f2a3d7223018e5fd85f8d966edb362037a"},{"id":1789800600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81074.1,"price_at_lock":81077.6,"sigma":0.000490507591110941,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T06:50:53.126Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T06:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.16849337335863457,"mom3":0.309386651270456,"rev20":0.7133953949425578,"book":0.9513428543943703},"fable":{"p":0.4644968052076748,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 46%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum +0.02%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.7σ; order book 62/38 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.325 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81072.69,"band":39.77,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T06:50:53.126Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81044,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T06:55:44.231Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.21575728204813657,"delta":14,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 54% likely; candle closed down (-0.04%). Brier 0.2158. Largest weight change: bias -0.0233. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0233,"ret1":-0.0038,"mom3":-0.0072,"rev20":-0.0161,"book":-0.0222}},"prev_hash":"a448fe5bee1d1bf81ff5e6439aef35f2a3d7223018e5fd85f8d966edb362037a","hash":"3f2cd0062e702826283df8cba122a60614dfe1b9bc11167bb956ebcf7dda6c5f"},{"id":1789800900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81044,"price_at_lock":81034.9,"sigma":0.00044656848791908214,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T06:55:44.231Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T07:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.83137370710077,"mom3":-0.9390638464759238,"rev20":-0.04489890150566012,"book":-1.536892742899064},"fable":{"p":0.5177600160696342,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 52%. Last candle -0.04%; three-candle momentum -0.04%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.0σ; order book 31/69 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.04%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: order book (-0.124 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81044.64,"band":36.19,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T06:55:44.231Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81053.2,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T07:01:17.524Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2325554021011595,"delta":7,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 52% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.2326. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0371. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.024,"ret1":-0.02,"mom3":-0.0226,"rev20":-0.0006,"book":-0.0371}},"prev_hash":"3f2cd0062e702826283df8cba122a60614dfe1b9bc11167bb956ebcf7dda6c5f","hash":"06edf1295579005373cac6bb111906f1341ad067a70b2eed29e4b368f57da51b"},{"id":1789801200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81053.2,"price_at_lock":81071.1,"sigma":0.0004381055239015638,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T07:01:17.524Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T07:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.2591124199654375,"mom3":-0.3996741162577874,"rev20":0.24897213237254456,"book":0.7475831857330212},"fable":{"p":0.5025546002194691,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 50%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum -0.02%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.2σ; order book 59/41 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.04%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.118 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81053.29,"band":35.51,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T07:01:17.524Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81074.7,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T07:05:44.904Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.24745192576281225,"delta":1,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 50% likely; candle closed up (+0.03%). Brier 0.2475. Largest weight change: bias +0.0248. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0248,"ret1":0.0066,"mom3":-0.0099,"rev20":0.0067,"book":0.0186}},"prev_hash":"06edf1295579005373cac6bb111906f1341ad067a70b2eed29e4b368f57da51b","hash":"44d9978d4ec8ef1b10e545975abeebb0c5ff34888bd2d1a1f3cef534b212a3dc"},{"id":1789801500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81074.7,"price_at_lock":81074.6,"sigma":0.00044167354388521395,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T07:05:44.904Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T07:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.6005745276846608,"mom3":0.017006142514870707,"rev20":0.8649282686428001,"book":0.4586643387167172},"fable":{"p":0.4242000867757304,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 42%. Last candle +0.03%; three-candle momentum +0.00%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.9σ; order book 56/44 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.04%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.403 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81071.99,"band":35.81,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T07:05:44.904Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81111.7,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T07:10:57.914Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3315455400690764,"delta":-33,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 42% likely; candle closed up (+0.05%). Brier 0.3315. Largest weight change: bias +0.0287. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0287,"ret1":0.0174,"mom3":0.0005,"rev20":0.0254,"book":0.0131}},"prev_hash":"44d9978d4ec8ef1b10e545975abeebb0c5ff34888bd2d1a1f3cef534b212a3dc","hash":"25aea3efc0cca8c009ef0a885f5279fee3b740a331f5a734bc8252de2b717f2c"},{"id":1789801800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81111.7,"price_at_lock":81110.3,"sigma":0.00045084337681079115,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T07:10:57.914Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T07:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.0122567460601828,"mom3":1.8524076321338552,"rev20":1.8058824149572479,"book":-0.5381686204457481},"fable":{"p":0.3,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 30%. Last candle +0.05%; three-candle momentum +0.08%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.8σ; order book 43/57 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.795 in log-odds). Raw model said 30%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81104.39,"band":36.57,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T07:10:57.914Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81159.1,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T07:15:57.516Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 30% likely; candle closed up (+0.06%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0649. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0348,"ret1":0.0355,"mom3":0.0649,"rev20":0.0636,"book":-0.0189}},"prev_hash":"25aea3efc0cca8c009ef0a885f5279fee3b740a331f5a734bc8252de2b717f2c","hash":"988d32cc167308dbff78cbfc32092959eebd7df16db6ed22f97a9ff942cfca94"},{"id":1789802100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81159.1,"price_at_lock":81154.9,"sigma":0.00046461318085286004,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T07:15:57.516Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T07:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.2577760230936137,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":-0.16995727198123348},"fable":{"p":0.3523731259646764,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 35%. Last candle +0.06%; three-candle momentum +0.13%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.9σ; order book 48/52 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.753 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81153.53,"band":37.71,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T07:15:57.516Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81219.2,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T07:20:54.224Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.4194205679727649,"delta":-68,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 35% likely; candle closed up (+0.07%). Brier 0.4194. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0651. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0322,"ret1":0.0408,"mom3":0.0648,"rev20":0.0651,"book":-0.0056}},"prev_hash":"988d32cc167308dbff78cbfc32092959eebd7df16db6ed22f97a9ff942cfca94","hash":"4024e4aa7f9aca2f69aaf288d35960e6eaf4925d58ad3919febabb668e459431"},{"id":1789802400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81219.2,"price_at_lock":81194,"sigma":0.000488137845329576,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T07:20:54.224Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T07:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.517032097880332,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":0.7223141234854921},"fable":{"p":0.4450357416323356,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 45%. Last candle +0.07%; three-candle momentum +0.18%; price above its 20-candle mean by 4.2σ; order book 59/41 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.623 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81217.02,"band":39.65,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T07:20:54.224Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81099.4,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T07:25:47.322Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.19805681133024297,"delta":21,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 55% likely; candle closed down (-0.15%). Brier 0.1981. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0446. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0225,"ret1":-0.0338,"mom3":-0.0446,"rev20":-0.0442,"book":-0.0161}},"prev_hash":"4024e4aa7f9aca2f69aaf288d35960e6eaf4925d58ad3919febabb668e459431","hash":"4716b48905ea36feee1fb7f4972a1eb7776d58e28e80815979da9632ff25f651"},{"id":1789802700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81099.4,"price_at_lock":81109.8,"sigma":0.0005473402503779435,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T07:25:47.322Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T07:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-2,"mom3":-0.27427287910120646,"rev20":0.9335915910085714,"book":1.9846769441338277},"fable":{"p":0.5023011128228855,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 50%. Last candle -0.15%; three-candle momentum -0.02%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.9σ; order book 75/25 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.332 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81099.5,"band":44.39,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T07:25:47.322Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81098,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T07:31:03.717Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2523064079431091,"delta":-1,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 50% likely; candle closed down (-0.00%). Brier 0.2523. Largest weight change: last-candle +0.0503. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0253,"ret1":0.0503,"mom3":0.0069,"rev20":-0.0231,"book":-0.0499}},"prev_hash":"4716b48905ea36feee1fb7f4972a1eb7776d58e28e80815979da9632ff25f651","hash":"ddd42f98d5c82ef923e28bb76095d51bc9d8e0a4913695781ddad4aab12f9fca"},{"id":1789803000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81098,"price_at_lock":81090.6,"sigma":0.0005466957603266484,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T07:31:03.717Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T07:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.031576550770977006,"mom3":-1.3751024357536177,"rev20":0.8169709790868709,"book":0.8139017727440228},"fable":{"p":0.45123216501068064,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 45%. Last candle -0.00%; three-candle momentum -0.08%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.8σ; order book 60/40 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.309 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81095.84,"band":44.34,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T07:31:03.717Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81098.9,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T07:35:45.025Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.30114613671886487,"delta":-20,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 45% likely; candle closed up (+0.00%). Brier 0.3011. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0378. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0273,"ret1":-0.0009,"mom3":-0.0378,"rev20":0.0228,"book":0.0223}},"prev_hash":"ddd42f98d5c82ef923e28bb76095d51bc9d8e0a4913695781ddad4aab12f9fca","hash":"744d3abc27b0bf307306ff895b9003512077f7670bf6b859e4fabd005d680e47"},{"id":1789803300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81098.9,"price_at_lock":81077.1,"sigma":0.0005320632577163929,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T07:35:45.025Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T07:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.020857828692723897,"mom3":-2,"rev20":0.8266719215758653,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.481564577846272,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 48%. Last candle +0.00%; three-candle momentum -0.15%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.8σ; order book 80/20 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.294 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81098.1,"band":43.15,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T07:35:45.025Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81040.9,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T07:41:00.005Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.23190444263625815,"delta":7,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 52% likely; candle closed down (-0.07%). Brier 0.2319. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0482. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0243,"ret1":-0.0005,"mom3":0.0482,"rev20":-0.0195,"book":-0.0482}},"prev_hash":"744d3abc27b0bf307306ff895b9003512077f7670bf6b859e4fabd005d680e47","hash":"53b11202ec9318240d6f17c50d251c54519c7cb17c26cea2f6f2216ca58bc93b"},{"id":1789803600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81040.9,"price_at_lock":81061.3,"sigma":0.0005520351148570217,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T07:41:00.005Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T07:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.2955265746771991,"mom3":-1.3066944913244725,"rev20":-0.4933004027073795,"book":0.48728829126712925},"fable":{"p":0.5673823603173058,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 57%. Last candle -0.07%; three-candle momentum -0.07%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.5σ; order book 56/44 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.185 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81043.91,"band":44.74,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T07:41:00.005Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81051.3,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T07:45:52.547Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.1871580221646254,"delta":25,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 57% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.1872. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0283. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0215,"ret1":-0.028,"mom3":-0.0283,"rev20":-0.0103,"book":0.0106}},"prev_hash":"53b11202ec9318240d6f17c50d251c54519c7cb17c26cea2f6f2216ca58bc93b","hash":"8e1ee19b8a11d557a812d80ee88788f209595a384d891cbd533be35855515563"},{"id":1789803900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81051.3,"price_at_lock":81051.9,"sigma":0.0005485479517206372,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T07:45:52.547Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T07:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.23394538702558426,"mom3":-1.0495859340934148,"rev20":-0.29504547440539003,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.5572304607434516,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 56%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum -0.06%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.3σ; order book 84/16 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.114 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81053.84,"band":44.46,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T07:45:52.547Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81034.5,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T07:50:58.422Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.31050578638035936,"delta":-24,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 44% likely; candle closed down (-0.02%). Brier 0.3105. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0557. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0281,"ret1":-0.0065,"mom3":0.0292,"rev20":0.0086,"book":-0.0557}},"prev_hash":"8e1ee19b8a11d557a812d80ee88788f209595a384d891cbd533be35855515563","hash":"48a829e805238b616a9513898d620e9e7a0450f802a4b01d4189554305aa2e99"},{"id":1789804200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81034.5,"price_at_lock":81033.3,"sigma":0.0005479747276611932,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T07:50:58.422Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T07:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.37825856204753355,"mom3":-1.4491946270912408,"rev20":-0.6645500375379236,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.5476440481585544,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 55%. Last candle -0.02%; three-candle momentum -0.08%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.7σ; order book 80/20 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.251 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81036.62,"band":44.4,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T07:50:58.422Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81132.3,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T07:55:49.326Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.20462590716638027,"delta":18,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 55% likely; candle closed up (+0.12%). Brier 0.2046. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0453. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0224,"ret1":-0.0085,"mom3":-0.0328,"rev20":-0.0147,"book":0.0453}},"prev_hash":"48a829e805238b616a9513898d620e9e7a0450f802a4b01d4189554305aa2e99","hash":"9694e0ed3139d62809ff65ee351df230c200a5fd712262402909d8d61a105e7d"},{"id":1789804500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81132.3,"price_at_lock":81146.2,"sigma":0.0005981008739038425,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T07:55:49.326Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":2,"mom3":1.8858816962048066,"rev20":1.2792803373031039,"book":1.3183914436336808},"fable":{"p":0.40190264925567376,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 40%. Last candle +0.12%; three-candle momentum +0.11%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.3σ; order book 66/34 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.501 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81127.54,"band":48.53,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T07:55:49.326Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81096.9,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T08:01:17.918Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.1615257394787291,"delta":35,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 60% likely; candle closed down (-0.04%). Brier 0.1615. Largest weight change: last-candle -0.0402. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0203,"ret1":-0.0402,"mom3":-0.0379,"rev20":-0.0253,"book":-0.0265}},"prev_hash":"9694e0ed3139d62809ff65ee351df230c200a5fd712262402909d8d61a105e7d","hash":"10b2f4de027266049968a6b54f8ae79992a2775ee520f304a7c341d9b4497a6d"},{"id":1789804800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81096.9,"price_at_lock":81080.1,"sigma":0.0006051207068287486,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T08:01:17.918Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T08:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.7210534509383444,"mom3":0.9308768440116757,"rev20":0.432730427143798,"book":0.7594347404897264},"fable":{"p":0.4939772814802492,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 49%. Last candle -0.04%; three-candle momentum +0.06%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.4σ; order book 59/41 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.180 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81096.6,"band":49.07,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T08:01:17.918Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81093.6,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T08:05:52.336Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.24401355461861737,"delta":2,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 51% likely; candle closed down (-0.00%). Brier 0.2440. Largest weight change: bias -0.0249. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0249,"ret1":0.0179,"mom3":-0.023,"rev20":-0.0103,"book":-0.0187}},"prev_hash":"10b2f4de027266049968a6b54f8ae79992a2775ee520f304a7c341d9b4497a6d","hash":"5ecb36a902db56bd9ab36f51e69c595381ce606b9ba2e484c56c3a3553ba6451"},{"id":1789805100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81093.6,"price_at_lock":81084.7,"sigma":0.0005937484400446111,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T08:05:52.336Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T08:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.06853417749729512,"mom3":1.229269630264247,"rev20":0.2251636484933544,"book":-1.2457466999157432},"fable":{"p":0.5273905451414217,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 53%. Last candle -0.00%; three-candle momentum +0.07%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.2σ; order book 34/66 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.107 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81094.92,"band":48.15,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T08:05:52.336Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81186.2,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T08:10:52.524Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.22335969682172258,"delta":11,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 53% likely; candle closed up (+0.11%). Brier 0.2234. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0294. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0235,"ret1":-0.0016,"mom3":0.0291,"rev20":0.0057,"book":-0.0294}},"prev_hash":"5ecb36a902db56bd9ab36f51e69c595381ce606b9ba2e484c56c3a3553ba6451","hash":"bd33521202d7a4f6a6825d3ddeb0dd140d2599f77159671736b4f91f8be4b755"},{"id":1789805400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81186.2,"price_at_lock":81193.8,"sigma":0.00063669023336614,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T08:10:52.524Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T08:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.7934786791970416,"mom3":1.0442659382540498,"rev20":1.7903762634867977,"book":0.8204793428671838},"fable":{"p":0.31100443294982066,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 31%. Last candle +0.11%; three-candle momentum +0.07%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.8σ; order book 60/40 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.755 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81176.43,"band":51.69,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T08:10:52.524Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81237,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T08:16:00.336Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.4747148914147981,"delta":-90,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 31% likely; candle closed up (+0.06%). Brier 0.4747. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0621. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0343,"ret1":0.0618,"mom3":0.036,"rev20":0.0621,"book":0.0284}},"prev_hash":"bd33521202d7a4f6a6825d3ddeb0dd140d2599f77159671736b4f91f8be4b755","hash":"03661d80b97ff388c9f0428b0e203d06fc3c131b5a995dca35f86858eee02a22"},{"id":1789805700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81237,"price_at_lock":81205.6,"sigma":0.0006016771587202226,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T08:16:00.336Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T08:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.0399632035424744,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":-0.9812988357805156},"fable":{"p":0.4058076443119354,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 41%. Last candle +0.06%; three-candle momentum +0.17%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.8σ; order book 38/62 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.719 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81232.4,"band":48.88,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T08:16:00.336Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81236.1,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T08:20:56.215Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.16467984418200227,"delta":34,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 59% likely; candle closed down (-0.00%). Brier 0.1647. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0406. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0205,"ret1":-0.0211,"mom3":-0.0406,"rev20":-0.0402,"book":0.02}},"prev_hash":"03661d80b97ff388c9f0428b0e203d06fc3c131b5a995dca35f86858eee02a22","hash":"42b15240d36f8f76d3841a5ea834ed622b68f701179f2eb8481532959c79362d"},{"id":1789806000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81236.1,"price_at_lock":81351.7,"sigma":0.0006018257506804002,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T08:20:56.215Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T08:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.018408477297013646,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.31265211320442554,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 31%. Last candle -0.00%; three-candle momentum +0.18%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.6σ; order book 77/23 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.799 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81226.94,"band":48.89,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T08:20:56.215Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81277.8,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T08:25:49.451Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.47244711748234186,"delta":-89,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 31% likely; candle closed up (+0.05%). Brier 0.4724. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0691. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0342,"ret1":-0.0006,"mom3":0.0688,"rev20":0.0691,"book":0.0688}},"prev_hash":"42b15240d36f8f76d3841a5ea834ed622b68f701179f2eb8481532959c79362d","hash":"aa817c35fd2371b4a9d46b517ed99d638eff0375b4e7712a64ad401f55888d7c"},{"id":1789806300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81277.8,"price_at_lock":81262,"sigma":0.0006059637429155067,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T08:25:49.451Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T08:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.8471110560596576,"mom3":1.8614347957203683,"rev20":2,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.408980904635035,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 41%. Last candle +0.05%; three-candle momentum +0.11%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.2σ; order book 21/79 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.661 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81273.32,"band":49.25,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T08:25:49.451Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81295.7,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T08:31:05.509Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3493035710860216,"delta":-40,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 41% likely; candle closed up (+0.02%). Brier 0.3493. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0594. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0293,"ret1":0.0251,"mom3":0.055,"rev20":0.0594,"book":-0.0591}},"prev_hash":"aa817c35fd2371b4a9d46b517ed99d638eff0375b4e7712a64ad401f55888d7c","hash":"6695cc8dbe74150957eb77e98ce260e7220b018467e9603bc7ee7c6df85706e6"},{"id":1789806600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81295.7,"price_at_lock":81293.3,"sigma":0.0006061704122900112,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T08:31:05.509Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T08:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.3633175333216856,"mom3":1.1918632365497275,"rev20":2,"book":1.0629352496155253},"fable":{"p":0.4435517960897294,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 44%. Last candle +0.02%; three-candle momentum +0.07%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.3σ; order book 63/37 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.542 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81292.92,"band":49.28,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T08:31:05.509Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81324.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T08:35:45.510Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3096346036349661,"delta":-24,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 44% likely; candle closed up (+0.04%). Brier 0.3096. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0559. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0276,"ret1":0.0101,"mom3":0.0331,"rev20":0.0559,"book":0.0296}},"prev_hash":"6695cc8dbe74150957eb77e98ce260e7220b018467e9603bc7ee7c6df85706e6","hash":"4edaa242154abd307035c48a72ca8f2331f65c39a6f0b2d86d9be358dbd85be5"},{"id":1789806900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81324.5,"price_at_lock":81348.1,"sigma":0.0005963169250615518,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T08:35:45.510Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T08:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.594083891746373,"mom3":1.8242199055532873,"rev20":2,"book":-1.3142000795667896},"fable":{"p":0.5357620904021381,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 54%. Last candle +0.04%; three-candle momentum +0.11%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.7σ; order book 34/66 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.431 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81326.23,"band":48.5,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T08:35:45.510Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81342.1,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T08:40:56.822Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.21551683670779262,"delta":14,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 54% likely; candle closed up (+0.02%). Brier 0.2155. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0466. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0229,"ret1":0.0138,"mom3":0.0422,"rev20":0.0466,"book":-0.0305}},"prev_hash":"4edaa242154abd307035c48a72ca8f2331f65c39a6f0b2d86d9be358dbd85be5","hash":"df746eba5c343a08be59a3fd985110c8235dd9d8dd202848f50015d889f81938"},{"id":1789807200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81342.1,"price_at_lock":81318.2,"sigma":0.0005962258704821162,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T08:40:56.822Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T08:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.36297812228038356,"mom3":1.3265301031027672,"rev20":2,"book":-0.953857486322904},"fable":{"p":0.5665733417797381,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 57%. Last candle +0.02%; three-candle momentum +0.08%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.8σ; order book 38/62 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.337 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81345.33,"band":48.5,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T08:40:56.822Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81310.6,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T08:45:51.530Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3210053516154599,"delta":-28,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 43% likely; candle closed down (-0.04%). Brier 0.3210. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0565. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0286,"ret1":-0.0103,"mom3":-0.0378,"rev20":-0.0565,"book":0.0271}},"prev_hash":"df746eba5c343a08be59a3fd985110c8235dd9d8dd202848f50015d889f81938","hash":"87f3686c0bce63558e5d0ba85166c1e6305f888db76d0ab4d7ad2f76a1dbf303"},{"id":1789807500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81310.6,"price_at_lock":81324.5,"sigma":0.0006082941728749003,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T08:45:51.530Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T08:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.6366218162267555,"mom3":0.301541414534205,"rev20":2,"book":-1.7182735708111803},"fable":{"p":0.4763952667801617,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 48%. Last candle -0.04%; three-candle momentum +0.02%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.8σ; order book 29/71 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.450 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81309.43,"band":49.46,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T08:45:51.530Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81339.9,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T08:50:59.325Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2741619166502181,"delta":-10,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 48% likely; candle closed up (+0.04%). Brier 0.2742. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0526. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0259,"ret1":-0.0167,"mom3":0.0078,"rev20":0.0526,"book":-0.045}},"prev_hash":"87f3686c0bce63558e5d0ba85166c1e6305f888db76d0ab4d7ad2f76a1dbf303","hash":"5e38066d273b7e136433ab6a49322bdd8e559459384a43f7c07caff7ff5eec89"},{"id":1789807800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81339.9,"price_at_lock":81339.9,"sigma":0.0006061966730229429,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T08:50:59.325Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T08:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.5944384677609831,"mom3":0.31262168813190777,"rev20":2,"book":-1.1861860897593992},"fable":{"p":0.5234119475950357,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 52%. Last candle +0.04%; three-candle momentum +0.02%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.2σ; order book 35/65 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.345 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81341.05,"band":49.31,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T08:50:59.325Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81298.8,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T08:55:50.418Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.27396006688522845,"delta":-10,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 48% likely; candle closed down (-0.05%). Brier 0.2740. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0522. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0265,"ret1":-0.0156,"mom3":-0.0083,"rev20":-0.0522,"book":0.0311}},"prev_hash":"5e38066d273b7e136433ab6a49322bdd8e559459384a43f7c07caff7ff5eec89","hash":"66bcaab428bda8baab4db730ccaf24a934d8350b7eb780ae3e9073848539bff2"},{"id":1789808100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81298.8,"price_at_lock":81296.9,"sigma":0.0006128007036948066,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T08:55:50.418Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T09:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.8245536764027452,"mom3":-0.8684614583291962,"rev20":2,"book":1.5772712675187182},"fable":{"p":0.411007954892985,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 41%. Last candle -0.05%; three-candle momentum -0.05%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.2σ; order book 70/30 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.449 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81294.37,"band":49.82,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T08:55:50.418Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81313.6,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T09:01:46.821Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.346911629199344,"delta":-39,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 41% likely; candle closed up (+0.02%). Brier 0.3469. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0591. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0292,"ret1":-0.0243,"mom3":-0.0257,"rev20":0.0591,"book":0.0465}},"prev_hash":"66bcaab428bda8baab4db730ccaf24a934d8350b7eb780ae3e9073848539bff2","hash":"fde61467729e583d8019ff1e5c6e4c9841a2ff663f43bb526316ebb1d6568d7d"},{"id":1789808400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81313.6,"price_at_lock":81300.9,"sigma":0.0005948079842445185,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T09:01:46.821Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T09:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.30605592433877493,"mom3":0.0623798885433391,"rev20":2,"book":-1.5324762726593735},"fable":{"p":0.49127674218700235,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 49%. Last candle +0.02%; three-candle momentum +0.00%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.4σ; order book 31/69 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.331 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81313.18,"band":48.37,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T09:01:46.821Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81332.6,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T09:05:49.524Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2587993530398697,"delta":-4,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 49% likely; candle closed up (+0.02%). Brier 0.2588. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0510. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0251,"ret1":0.0078,"mom3":0.0015,"rev20":0.051,"book":-0.039}},"prev_hash":"fde61467729e583d8019ff1e5c6e4c9841a2ff663f43bb526316ebb1d6568d7d","hash":"fce64e0ed533facf875414acf45dcb918da1398053b0ac9a05db52af930efe19"},{"id":1789808700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81332.6,"price_at_lock":81348.6,"sigma":0.0004800921858996627,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T09:05:49.524Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T09:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.4867049627276418,"mom3":-0.18658774064341224,"rev20":2,"book":-0.025936379973804866},"fable":{"p":0.5160774217001239,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 52%. Last candle +0.02%; three-candle momentum -0.01%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.2σ; order book 50/50 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.229 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81333.23,"band":39.05,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T09:05:49.524Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81455.3,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T09:11:03.527Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.23418106178839967,"delta":6,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 52% likely; candle closed up (+0.15%). Brier 0.2342. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0485. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0239,"ret1":0.0118,"mom3":-0.0046,"rev20":0.0485,"book":-0.0006}},"prev_hash":"fce64e0ed533facf875414acf45dcb918da1398053b0ac9a05db52af930efe19","hash":"c05f876246d18f676261b9fc1ec378cfcc9110614b37cabc28d6cd8200724d6a"},{"id":1789809000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81455.3,"price_at_lock":81438.6,"sigma":0.0005626043202000059,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T09:11:03.527Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T09:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":2,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.5824941716637239,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 58%. Last candle +0.15%; three-candle momentum +0.19%; price above its 20-candle mean by 5.0σ; order book 78/22 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: momentum (+0.221 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81459.08,"band":45.83,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T09:11:03.527Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81429.7,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T09:15:53.926Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3392994600222078,"delta":-36,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 42% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.3393. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0584. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0295,"ret1":-0.0582,"mom3":-0.0584,"rev20":-0.0582,"book":-0.0582}},"prev_hash":"c05f876246d18f676261b9fc1ec378cfcc9110614b37cabc28d6cd8200724d6a","hash":"41d9fd1e445ad4311f18d65b0510de2eadee2ea6e6246ac91cd7aee4588b64e5"},{"id":1789809300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81429.7,"price_at_lock":81427.3,"sigma":0.0005730178278575706,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T09:15:53.926Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T09:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.5484695024861109,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":0.7067139586462783},"fable":{"p":0.5374400657197653,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 54%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum +0.14%; price above its 20-candle mean by 4.0σ; order book 59/41 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.248 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81431.45,"band":46.66,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T09:15:53.926Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81426.1,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T09:20:53.308Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2888418242408657,"delta":-16,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 46% likely; candle closed down (-0.00%). Brier 0.2888. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0538. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0272,"ret1":0.0148,"mom3":-0.0538,"rev20":-0.0536,"book":-0.0189}},"prev_hash":"41d9fd1e445ad4311f18d65b0510de2eadee2ea6e6246ac91cd7aee4588b64e5","hash":"a989150905ecdaeb6c5f7625edc851423b831bd1299fd579a7c6200f64bd8267"},{"id":1789809600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81426.1,"price_at_lock":81465.6,"sigma":0.0005367299100059826,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T09:20:53.308Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T09:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.08236901420548648,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.42801104627544523,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 43%. Last candle -0.00%; three-candle momentum +0.12%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.8σ; order book 82/18 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.356 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81422.95,"band":43.7,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T09:20:53.308Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81492,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T09:25:48.125Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3271713631829109,"delta":-31,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 43% likely; candle closed up (+0.08%). Brier 0.3272. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0574. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0283,"ret1":-0.0023,"mom3":0.0572,"rev20":0.0574,"book":0.0573}},"prev_hash":"a989150905ecdaeb6c5f7625edc851423b831bd1299fd579a7c6200f64bd8267","hash":"f2649fcb2dcb46d2f1c450a5cbf78220ec4bc4696c24a9b2ced34448c69e7383"},{"id":1789809900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81492,"price_at_lock":81454.1,"sigma":0.00055017148535774,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T09:25:48.125Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.471037359824107,"mom3":0.8194355845896055,"rev20":2,"book":0.6708478252648197},"fable":{"p":0.4996329583149519,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 50%. Last candle +0.08%; three-candle momentum +0.05%; price above its 20-candle mean by 4.7σ; order book 58/42 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.241 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81491.98,"band":44.83,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T09:25:48.125Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81409.8,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T09:31:03.336Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.24963309303455047,"delta":0,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 50% likely; candle closed down (-0.10%). Brier 0.2496. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0498. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0253,"ret1":-0.0367,"mom3":-0.0205,"rev20":-0.0498,"book":-0.0167}},"prev_hash":"f2649fcb2dcb46d2f1c450a5cbf78220ec4bc4696c24a9b2ced34448c69e7383","hash":"84d2617408c790cadd391e8bffe074122ef6a5da5d5f2f4247bf87d52fcb6839"},{"id":1789810200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81409.8,"price_at_lock":81423.9,"sigma":0.0006095498612633006,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T09:31:03.336Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T09:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.6548079713785364,"mom3":-0.3995982759753453,"rev20":2,"book":-0.3912396871093103},"fable":{"p":0.533439091103947,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 53%. Last candle -0.10%; three-candle momentum -0.02%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.2σ; order book 45/55 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.341 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81411.46,"band":49.62,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T09:31:03.336Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81306.1,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T09:35:50.914Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2845572639178051,"delta":-14,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 47% likely; candle closed down (-0.13%). Brier 0.2846. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0532. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.027,"ret1":0.0442,"mom3":0.0106,"rev20":-0.0532,"book":0.0105}},"prev_hash":"84d2617408c790cadd391e8bffe074122ef6a5da5d5f2f4247bf87d52fcb6839","hash":"defb0e26c93ec343c6fcd97b57763bdb21667fd18e82661bf6f4f4a6649d989e"},{"id":1789810500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81306.1,"price_at_lock":81276.3,"sigma":0.0006494848087092657,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T09:35:50.914Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T09:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.961250517066682,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-0.07801589272261675,"book":0.9453091541227133},"fable":{"p":0.5599395022150899,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 56%. Last candle -0.13%; three-candle momentum -0.15%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.1σ; order book 62/38 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: last candle (+0.105 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81309.27,"band":52.81,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T09:35:50.914Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81302.4,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T09:41:02.007Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3135322461408827,"delta":-25,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 44% likely; candle closed down (-0.00%). Brier 0.3135. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0559. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0283,"ret1":0.055,"mom3":0.0559,"rev20":0.0024,"book":-0.0264}},"prev_hash":"defb0e26c93ec343c6fcd97b57763bdb21667fd18e82661bf6f4f4a6649d989e","hash":"c428dec0cc5402ed0d92d646e766006dc1c0d3145a5861758b96241dfaefd7f2"},{"id":1789810800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81302.4,"price_at_lock":81290,"sigma":0.0006386260827489356,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T09:41:02.007Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T09:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.07125772326962446,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-0.348427096508425,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.5736385870513567,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 57%. Last candle -0.00%; three-candle momentum -0.23%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.3σ; order book 15/85 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: momentum (-0.203 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81306.22,"band":51.92,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T09:41:02.007Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81264.7,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T09:45:54.426Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.329061228554277,"delta":-32,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 43% likely; candle closed down (-0.05%). Brier 0.3291. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0575. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0289,"ret1":0.002,"mom3":0.0573,"rev20":0.0102,"book":0.0575}},"prev_hash":"c428dec0cc5402ed0d92d646e766006dc1c0d3145a5861758b96241dfaefd7f2","hash":"327b3b9da60d287e4c3956f884e26f9853245e4ae5cb67084b6463c2d15e0c6c"},{"id":1789811100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81264.7,"price_at_lock":81280.6,"sigma":0.0006507117548939253,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T09:45:54.426Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T09:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.7126057660246784,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-1.2159457516089647,"book":0.8655332343951826},"fable":{"p":0.5301177822366642,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 53%. Last candle -0.05%; three-candle momentum -0.18%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.2σ; order book 61/39 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: momentum (-0.318 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81266.29,"band":52.88,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T09:45:54.426Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81344.2,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T09:51:00.525Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.22078929857019094,"delta":12,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 53% likely; candle closed up (+0.10%). Brier 0.2208. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0471. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0233,"ret1":-0.0167,"mom3":-0.0471,"rev20":-0.0284,"book":0.0204}},"prev_hash":"327b3b9da60d287e4c3956f884e26f9853245e4ae5cb67084b6463c2d15e0c6c","hash":"a68f52b65fd7da16f413ae022e8443d51a2218d10b41a43fea6ce50f0fb896f5"},{"id":1789811400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81344.2,"price_at_lock":81326.2,"sigma":0.0006385475122846931,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T09:51:00.525Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T09:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.5320465985552696,"mom3":0.7345992991165575,"rev20":0.13959083536513367,"book":-1.4885506127487604},"fable":{"p":0.5704456927574415,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 57%. Last candle +0.10%; three-candle momentum +0.05%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.1σ; order book 31/69 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: momentum (+0.082 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81347.86,"band":51.94,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T09:51:00.525Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81328.3,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T09:55:50.232Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.32540828838551733,"delta":-30,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 43% likely; candle closed down (-0.02%). Brier 0.3254. Largest weight change: last-candle -0.0437. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0288,"ret1":-0.0437,"mom3":-0.0211,"rev20":-0.0037,"book":0.0425}},"prev_hash":"a68f52b65fd7da16f413ae022e8443d51a2218d10b41a43fea6ce50f0fb896f5","hash":"bc503402fc0a92cb6510bfdd4430b2a697238271c16b2caf153aff16db5dfe1d"},{"id":1789811700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81328.3,"price_at_lock":81330.9,"sigma":0.0006295959782761164,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T09:55:50.232Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.3104620971629897,"mom3":0.5068614141199373,"rev20":-0.25804352464138736,"book":-1.50485124392429},"fable":{"p":0.571842865872745,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 57%. Last candle -0.02%; three-candle momentum +0.03%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.3σ; order book 31/69 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.063 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81331.98,"band":51.2,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T09:55:50.232Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81327.1,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T10:01:39.532Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.32700426324955423,"delta":-31,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 43% likely; candle closed down (-0.00%). Brier 0.3270. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0430. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0288,"ret1":0.0089,"mom3":-0.0146,"rev20":0.0076,"book":0.043}},"prev_hash":"bc503402fc0a92cb6510bfdd4430b2a697238271c16b2caf153aff16db5dfe1d","hash":"4e663502717841acba29dd41728cfca964a7015e7923696a6064de80898f326d"},{"id":1789812000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81327.1,"price_at_lock":81328.9,"sigma":0.0006296161776010657,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T10:01:39.532Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T10:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.023434930681661355,"mom3":1.2198921696691685,"rev20":-0.37028866607046207,"book":-1.0044356548561115},"fable":{"p":0.5712765664829856,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 57%. Last candle -0.00%; three-candle momentum +0.08%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.4σ; order book 37/63 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: momentum (+0.093 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81330.75,"band":51.2,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T10:01:39.532Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81274,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T10:05:50.019Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3263569154125891,"delta":-31,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 43% likely; candle closed down (-0.07%). Brier 0.3264. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0349. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0287,"ret1":0.0007,"mom3":-0.0349,"rev20":0.0108,"book":0.0286}},"prev_hash":"4e663502717841acba29dd41728cfca964a7015e7923696a6064de80898f326d","hash":"d58afefc9202b6607fd155dec3b5d394eee41c9bf7237995c945a51a5f259bd4"},{"id":1789812300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81274,"price_at_lock":81276.2,"sigma":0.0006385203989134048,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T10:05:50.019Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T10:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.0225497773382097,"mom3":-1.3517807613707662,"rev20":-1.3837815835670595,"book":0.1725508635139505},"fable":{"p":0.6156380975457776,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 62%. Last candle -0.07%; three-candle momentum -0.09%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.4σ; order book 52/48 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.311 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81280,"band":51.9,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T10:05:50.019Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81268.5,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T10:10:59.722Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.37901026714978436,"delta":-52,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 38% likely; candle closed down (-0.01%). Brier 0.3790. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0428. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0309,"ret1":0.0315,"mom3":0.0416,"rev20":0.0428,"book":-0.0054}},"prev_hash":"d58afefc9202b6607fd155dec3b5d394eee41c9bf7237995c945a51a5f259bd4","hash":"061cd7173e45fc6887ac5b0537ec6deb98ca497c5672b5f7f9606a1ee847933a"},{"id":1789812600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81268.5,"price_at_lock":81284.4,"sigma":0.000636587389616916,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T10:10:59.722Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T10:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.10630483643621831,"mom3":-1.1551379017828813,"rev20":-1.4679558515116522,"book":1.7866701020221112},"fable":{"p":0.6138288881197373,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 61%. Last candle -0.01%; three-candle momentum -0.07%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.5σ; order book 72/28 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.267 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81274.39,"band":51.73,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T10:10:59.722Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81306,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T10:15:59.352Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.14912812765083833,"delta":40,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 61% likely; candle closed up (+0.05%). Brier 0.1491. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0344. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0192,"ret1":-0.002,"mom3":-0.0224,"rev20":-0.0282,"book":0.0344}},"prev_hash":"061cd7173e45fc6887ac5b0537ec6deb98ca497c5672b5f7f9606a1ee847933a","hash":"84637c48576c9fc93af74ebdf2a89d52655f61e4df42a86fa55ee98d1822e0ea"},{"id":1789812900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81306,"price_at_lock":81284.9,"sigma":0.0006401272418145088,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T10:15:59.352Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T10:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.7208463670371811,"mom3":-0.4048535922752829,"rev20":-0.7219093726587017,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.4979554370027492,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 50%. Last candle +0.05%; three-candle momentum -0.03%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.7σ; order book 19/81 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: order book (-0.261 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81305.89,"band":52.05,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T10:15:59.352Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81296.8,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T10:20:52.614Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.24795961724059892,"delta":1,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 50% likely; candle closed down (-0.01%). Brier 0.2480. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0497. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.025,"ret1":-0.0179,"mom3":0.01,"rev20":0.0182,"book":0.0497}},"prev_hash":"84637c48576c9fc93af74ebdf2a89d52655f61e4df42a86fa55ee98d1822e0ea","hash":"5fe043849ab94c2925ad022d3dd8b11a04a97cb562454a7423a7b57468824f17"},{"id":1789813200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81296.8,"price_at_lock":81291.8,"sigma":0.0006382958250173964,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T10:20:52.614Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T10:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.17727325860146725,"mom3":0.43962107618789575,"rev20":-0.8575721759388467,"book":-1.7797325578409462},"fable":{"p":0.4986794261072146,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 50%. Last candle -0.01%; three-candle momentum +0.03%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.9σ; order book 28/72 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: order book (-0.320 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81296.73,"band":51.89,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T10:20:52.614Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81291.7,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T10:25:48.722Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2486811700226209,"delta":1,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 50% likely; candle closed down (-0.01%). Brier 0.2487. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0442. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.025,"ret1":0.0045,"mom3":-0.011,"rev20":0.0216,"book":0.0442}},"prev_hash":"5fe043849ab94c2925ad022d3dd8b11a04a97cb562454a7423a7b57468824f17","hash":"397bb5c65904f9848ca45ee852e3a5734c5c45fdac24b1e7d996d1b8efa83d51"},{"id":1789813500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81291.7,"price_at_lock":81282.1,"sigma":0.0006330513871864479,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T10:25:48.722Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T10:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.09909637317837329,"mom3":0.4510653086384577,"rev20":-0.9453778176495939,"book":1.3248294735495538},"fable":{"p":0.6401814653144864,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 64%. Last candle -0.01%; three-candle momentum +0.03%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.9σ; order book 67/33 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.297 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81298.91,"band":51.46,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T10:25:48.722Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81282.2,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T10:31:05.528Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.4098323085322029,"delta":-64,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 36% likely; candle closed down (-0.01%). Brier 0.4098. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0426. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0321,"ret1":0.0032,"mom3":-0.0145,"rev20":0.0304,"book":-0.0426}},"prev_hash":"397bb5c65904f9848ca45ee852e3a5734c5c45fdac24b1e7d996d1b8efa83d51","hash":"84e73d7e2a9aaf0c6a5cc3b416823866c679a123a34ead4cf5933dc74bb79805"},{"id":1789813800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81282.2,"price_at_lock":81282.2,"sigma":0.0006275587483213951,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T10:31:05.528Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T10:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.1862185803279375,"mom3":-0.46648855955892343,"rev20":-1.083279890612432,"book":0.5445291925861688},"fable":{"p":0.5721775020163584,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 57%. Last candle -0.01%; three-candle momentum -0.03%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.1σ; order book 57/43 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.151 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81285.88,"band":51.01,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T10:31:05.528Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81257.6,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T10:35:48.531Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.32738709381367986,"delta":-31,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 43% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.3274. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0311. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0287,"ret1":0.0054,"mom3":0.0133,"rev20":0.0311,"book":-0.0158}},"prev_hash":"84e73d7e2a9aaf0c6a5cc3b416823866c679a123a34ead4cf5933dc74bb79805","hash":"5b34de08faee693c3ced265d5853cfe9b65bbb73d28d283ad200362628687c08"},{"id":1789814100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81257.6,"price_at_lock":81233.2,"sigma":0.0006214952800388441,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T10:35:48.531Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T10:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.4869695687939775,"mom3":-0.7759439205851573,"rev20":-1.539775131965764,"book":-0.47277357991862085},"fable":{"p":0.5205527049807385,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 52%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.05%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.5σ; order book 44/56 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.167 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81258.64,"band":50.5,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T10:35:48.531Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81227.2,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T10:40:54.421Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.27097511866276375,"delta":-8,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 48% likely; candle closed down (-0.04%). Brier 0.2710. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0402. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0261,"ret1":0.0127,"mom3":0.0201,"rev20":0.0402,"book":0.0121}},"prev_hash":"5b34de08faee693c3ced265d5853cfe9b65bbb73d28d283ad200362628687c08","hash":"d65977806cf9f5c3989eab1d1656f33f5421a810a0e75e3bb0461a839a0806db"},{"id":1789814400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81227.2,"price_at_lock":81241.3,"sigma":0.0006240396486022962,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T10:40:54.421Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T10:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.5995113491427617,"mom3":-1.2717641277160563,"rev20":-2,"book":1.6732188762051867},"fable":{"p":0.5847839659872179,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 58%. Last candle -0.04%; three-candle momentum -0.08%; price below its 20-candle mean by 2.0σ; order book 71/29 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.298 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81231.5,"band":50.69,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T10:40:54.421Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81252.4,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T10:45:52.111Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.1724043549013038,"delta":31,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 58% likely; candle closed up (+0.03%). Brier 0.1724. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0415. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0208,"ret1":-0.0124,"mom3":-0.0265,"rev20":-0.0415,"book":0.0346}},"prev_hash":"d65977806cf9f5c3989eab1d1656f33f5421a810a0e75e3bb0461a839a0806db","hash":"d91d2095bcf5e2cf07f56468cedfcb6bb42d59e9b4ead0227256017443f57b03"},{"id":1789814700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81252.4,"price_at_lock":81275.9,"sigma":0.0006260183077462482,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T10:45:52.111Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T10:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.49557800576386773,"mom3":-0.5854896432264693,"rev20":-1.4673283983350784,"book":1.2808249811349008},"fable":{"p":0.6020614162478183,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 60%. Last candle +0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.04%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.5σ; order book 66/34 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.272 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81257.59,"band":50.87,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T10:45:52.111Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81295.2,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T10:50:53.729Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.15835511643869216,"delta":37,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 60% likely; candle closed up (+0.05%). Brier 0.1584. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0291. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0199,"ret1":0.0099,"mom3":-0.0117,"rev20":-0.0291,"book":0.0253}},"prev_hash":"d91d2095bcf5e2cf07f56468cedfcb6bb42d59e9b4ead0227256017443f57b03","hash":"a840c8b71aaeefbf5447dece63fdb044cb39b426ab83d890b92ff8e0ae6d18c1"},{"id":1789815000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81295.2,"price_at_lock":81295.4,"sigma":0.0005336117496956616,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T10:50:53.729Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T10:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.987147812199852,"mom3":0.8674391529283638,"rev20":-0.5507822726262693,"book":1.0009720418340504},"fable":{"p":0.5936412256437741,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 59%. Last candle +0.05%; three-candle momentum +0.05%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.6σ; order book 63/37 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.238 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81299.26,"band":43.38,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T10:50:53.729Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81311.4,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T10:55:52.220Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.16512745349629412,"delta":34,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 59% likely; candle closed up (+0.02%). Brier 0.1651. Largest weight change: bias +0.0203. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0203,"ret1":0.0201,"mom3":0.0176,"rev20":-0.0111,"book":0.0201}},"prev_hash":"a840c8b71aaeefbf5447dece63fdb044cb39b426ab83d890b92ff8e0ae6d18c1","hash":"aa810bfddf77513afe77f0ebbd1234b954a053bc29c5819e02a1087ef57251e2"},{"id":1789815300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81311.4,"price_at_lock":81286.8,"sigma":0.0005349517140314883,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T10:55:52.220Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.37250793414315003,"mom3":1.9371249899387637,"rev20":-0.041035777329495864,"book":0.7317303186137455},"fable":{"p":0.5919406734760619,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 59%. Last candle +0.02%; three-candle momentum +0.10%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.0σ; order book 59/41 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.189 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81315.4,"band":43.5,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T10:55:52.220Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81217.7,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T11:01:32.940Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3503937609152938,"delta":-40,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 41% likely; candle closed down (-0.12%). Brier 0.3504. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0574. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0297,"ret1":-0.011,"mom3":-0.0574,"rev20":0.0014,"book":-0.0219}},"prev_hash":"aa810bfddf77513afe77f0ebbd1234b954a053bc29c5819e02a1087ef57251e2","hash":"7433217d538ff2e7f7e8cf3869e2d9843c634bd726a756c5d5621802bf5e123b"},{"id":1789815600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81217.7,"price_at_lock":81226.4,"sigma":0.0005842628347451075,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T11:01:32.940Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T11:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.9723314083315784,"mom3":-0.7296930169077023,"rev20":-1.7907597698415767,"book":-1.0395903728851421},"fable":{"p":0.5151151593484531,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 52%. Last candle -0.12%; three-candle momentum -0.04%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.8σ; order book 37/63 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.266 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81218.42,"band":47.45,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T11:01:32.940Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81288.4,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T11:05:49.930Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.23511330869367603,"delta":6,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 52% likely; candle closed up (+0.09%). Brier 0.2351. Largest weight change: last-candle -0.0478. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0242,"ret1":-0.0478,"mom3":-0.0177,"rev20":-0.0433,"book":-0.0254}},"prev_hash":"7433217d538ff2e7f7e8cf3869e2d9843c634bd726a756c5d5621802bf5e123b","hash":"61938b61c265ca9bd6dc97a56d665e0f0ac713b192848877fa162dfafb8ebc13"},{"id":1789815900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81288.4,"price_at_lock":81288.5,"sigma":0.0005893002816347008,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T11:05:49.930Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T11:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.4771754408998687,"mom3":-0.14014294758720194,"rev20":-0.0873590454372238,"book":0.02263688929911554},"fable":{"p":0.5012304113515176,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 50%. Last candle +0.09%; three-candle momentum -0.01%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.1σ; order book 50/50 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: last candle (-0.076 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81288.46,"band":47.9,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T11:05:49.930Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81359.1,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T11:10:52.814Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.24877110256057636,"delta":0,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 50% likely; candle closed up (+0.09%). Brier 0.2488. Largest weight change: last-candle +0.0369. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0249,"ret1":0.0369,"mom3":-0.0035,"rev20":-0.002,"book":0.0004}},"prev_hash":"61938b61c265ca9bd6dc97a56d665e0f0ac713b192848877fa162dfafb8ebc13","hash":"36f9b82706a8de1be5817e974b1f18d0fe66ba0848b8922bc43c2ef8a0da9d1b"},{"id":1789816200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81359.1,"price_at_lock":81346.7,"sigma":0.0005906473514760371,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T11:10:52.814Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T11:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.4725246632464788,"mom3":0.9953193805374487,"rev20":1.4381296205437015,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.5455718392390451,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 55%. Last candle +0.09%; three-candle momentum +0.06%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.4σ; order book 80/20 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.422 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81361.29,"band":48.05,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T11:10:52.814Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81308.4,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T11:15:56.522Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2976486317706744,"delta":-19,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 45% likely; candle closed down (-0.06%). Brier 0.2976. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0548. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0274,"ret1":-0.0402,"mom3":-0.0271,"rev20":-0.039,"book":-0.0548}},"prev_hash":"36f9b82706a8de1be5817e974b1f18d0fe66ba0848b8922bc43c2ef8a0da9d1b","hash":"7b6725b599df565e6d011d6ac52ca97f3b4d91eba8abfa24c3dfe0a57e1537cc"},{"id":1789816500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81308.4,"price_at_lock":81305,"sigma":0.0005367580600818343,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T11:15:56.522Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T11:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.160976018667796,"mom3":2,"rev20":0.4179161822977311,"book":0.28631479123490294},"fable":{"p":0.49241481496998185,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 49%. Last candle -0.06%; three-candle momentum +0.11%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.4σ; order book 54/46 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.097 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81308.07,"band":43.64,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T11:15:56.522Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81327.2,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T11:20:52.212Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.25764272006195776,"delta":-3,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 49% likely; candle closed up (+0.02%). Brier 0.2576. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0508. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0253,"ret1":-0.0294,"mom3":0.0508,"rev20":0.0108,"book":0.0071}},"prev_hash":"7b6725b599df565e6d011d6ac52ca97f3b4d91eba8abfa24c3dfe0a57e1537cc","hash":"74635d36fad527c8859b7b805d0172194263f70d284e0e558e4c6f5fb3faad38"},{"id":1789816800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81327.2,"price_at_lock":81342.7,"sigma":0.0005389287522899012,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T11:20:52.212Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T11:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.42903337725884116,"mom3":0.8865698432579276,"rev20":0.817045764200104,"book":1.147222791275727},"fable":{"p":0.5130480862019856,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 51%. Last candle +0.02%; three-candle momentum +0.05%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.8σ; order book 64/36 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: order book (+0.187 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81327.77,"band":43.83,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T11:20:52.212Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81366.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T11:25:48.326Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.23712216635154884,"delta":5,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 51% likely; candle closed up (+0.05%). Brier 0.2371. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0278. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0243,"ret1":0.0105,"mom3":0.0216,"rev20":0.0201,"book":0.0278}},"prev_hash":"74635d36fad527c8859b7b805d0172194263f70d284e0e558e4c6f5fb3faad38","hash":"7cde8984c9f7a7cad3928a9794c4f71b0230fa558877c0d89ed51d2deaa330bd"},{"id":1789817100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81366.5,"price_at_lock":81303,"sigma":0.0005363482988376208,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T11:25:48.326Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.9009689466570415,"mom3":0.17020348374002583,"rev20":1.6055000762812746,"book":-1.9419638474989551},"fable":{"p":0.3422841608595073,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 34%. Last candle +0.05%; three-candle momentum +0.01%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.6σ; order book 26/74 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.371 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81359.62,"band":43.64,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T11:25:48.326Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81267.8,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T11:31:07.750Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.11715844677529708,"delta":53,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 66% likely; candle closed down (-0.12%). Brier 0.1172. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0330. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0172,"ret1":-0.0153,"mom3":-0.0029,"rev20":-0.0273,"book":0.033}},"prev_hash":"7cde8984c9f7a7cad3928a9794c4f71b0230fa558877c0d89ed51d2deaa330bd","hash":"d6d66d8ba595aa984231f2b80a973c2d092e96f9056ab23ab5cf9e1bbcd57dc8"},{"id":1789817400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81267.8,"price_at_lock":81246.7,"sigma":0.0005613675408242859,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T11:31:07.750Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T11:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-2,"mom3":-0.8881495841246574,"rev20":-0.54508518375993,"book":-0.6681612284262874},"fable":{"p":0.5550132995248761,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 56%. Last candle -0.12%; three-candle momentum -0.05%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.5σ; order book 42/58 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: last candle (+0.178 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81270.31,"band":45.62,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T11:31:07.750Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81245.5,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T11:35:48.510Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.30803976264948985,"delta":-23,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 44% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.3080. Largest weight change: last-candle +0.0556. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0278,"ret1":0.0556,"mom3":0.0246,"rev20":0.0154,"book":0.0183}},"prev_hash":"d6d66d8ba595aa984231f2b80a973c2d092e96f9056ab23ab5cf9e1bbcd57dc8","hash":"c73fa81c40d06f765792beeb8386ca953724978cbd641ca3d948dbcfa2992b11"},{"id":1789817700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81245.5,"price_at_lock":81239.1,"sigma":0.0005626746777350167,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T11:35:48.510Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T11:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.4876733115956285,"mom3":-1.7846870204028475,"rev20":-0.9408819558623044,"book":-0.03324553055236933},"fable":{"p":0.5463908426402527,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 55%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.10%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.9σ; order book 50/50 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.201 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81247.62,"band":45.71,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T11:35:48.510Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81266.3,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T11:40:53.908Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.20576126764061997,"delta":18,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 55% likely; candle closed up (+0.03%). Brier 0.2058. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0405. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0226,"ret1":-0.011,"mom3":-0.0405,"rev20":-0.0211,"book":-0.001}},"prev_hash":"c73fa81c40d06f765792beeb8386ca953724978cbd641ca3d948dbcfa2992b11","hash":"1e51222a2b724f0e22d663722d77f373bdbeb0719b9d714a8e1dd000321997a5"},{"id":1789818000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81266.3,"price_at_lock":81249.9,"sigma":0.000566622012750141,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T11:40:53.908Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T11:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.45182533238393446,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-0.41675576793975483,"book":-0.23489125265168426},"fable":{"p":0.5228787505743127,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 52%. Last candle +0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.12%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.4σ; order book 47/53 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.098 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81267.35,"band":46.05,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T11:40:53.908Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81287,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T11:45:55.516Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.22764468665352897,"delta":9,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 52% likely; candle closed up (+0.03%). Brier 0.2276. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0477. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0238,"ret1":0.0108,"mom3":-0.0477,"rev20":-0.0097,"book":-0.0058}},"prev_hash":"1e51222a2b724f0e22d663722d77f373bdbeb0719b9d714a8e1dd000321997a5","hash":"b8fe4bd777c93d604dfee42e7e4d81401c5f30eb88e80a2dbcbaf228ad75218c"},{"id":1789818300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81287,"price_at_lock":81281.3,"sigma":0.0005516423451047485,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T11:45:55.516Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T11:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.461745064812112,"mom3":0.42841324328260133,"rev20":0.019067422553699902,"book":0.5158673390052649},"fable":{"p":0.5470547669636838,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 55%. Last candle +0.03%; three-candle momentum +0.02%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.0σ; order book 56/44 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.122 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81289.11,"band":44.84,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T11:45:55.516Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81299.9,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T11:50:56.939Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.20515938413032275,"delta":18,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 55% likely; candle closed up (+0.02%). Brier 0.2052. Largest weight change: bias +0.0225. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0225,"ret1":0.0105,"mom3":0.0097,"rev20":0.0007,"book":0.0114}},"prev_hash":"b8fe4bd777c93d604dfee42e7e4d81401c5f30eb88e80a2dbcbaf228ad75218c","hash":"4cce74f6c07b7d6095fbfd3eaf1da54fa080efa7a9bce8f0b87258802b51c1ba"},{"id":1789818600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81299.9,"price_at_lock":81299.8,"sigma":0.0005522924544052,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T11:50:56.939Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T11:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.28734226105766314,"mom3":1.2120920119671248,"rev20":0.27141353908123933,"book":-0.6446329016137352},"fable":{"p":0.46424914502417314,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 46%. Last candle +0.02%; three-candle momentum +0.07%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.3σ; order book 42/58 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.159 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81298.29,"band":44.9,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T11:50:56.939Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81299.9,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T11:55:48.619Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.28702897860732945,"delta":-15,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 46% likely; candle closed up (+0.00%). Brier 0.2870. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0325. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0267,"ret1":0.0077,"mom3":0.0325,"rev20":0.0075,"book":-0.0175}},"prev_hash":"4cce74f6c07b7d6095fbfd3eaf1da54fa080efa7a9bce8f0b87258802b51c1ba","hash":"1f999cc351c4a3744a2dde62bfa70f841d4455b8905dd06e7eb99bcf36380b80"},{"id":1789818900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81299.9,"price_at_lock":81313.2,"sigma":0.0005429059938108102,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T11:55:48.619Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0,"mom3":0.7614855936761665,"rev20":0.28301829858910266,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.6333958858304707,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 63%. Last candle +0.00%; three-candle momentum +0.04%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.3σ; order book 79/21 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.459 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81305.79,"band":44.14,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T11:55:48.619Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81308.6,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T12:01:30.749Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.1343985765260253,"delta":46,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 63% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.1344. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0364. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0182,"ret1":0,"mom3":0.014,"rev20":0.0054,"book":0.0364}},"prev_hash":"1f999cc351c4a3744a2dde62bfa70f841d4455b8905dd06e7eb99bcf36380b80","hash":"25361c7647046c20e736c8a3ead3bd10389863dd2b4605935e47f405e1ce31ea"},{"id":1789819200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81308.6,"price_at_lock":81297.8,"sigma":0.0005428051922916921,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T12:01:30.749Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T12:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.1971447643751225,"mom3":0.48950925327005573,"rev20":0.46687088218985334,"book":-1.2098645195442599},"fable":{"p":0.4371269083907176,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 44%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum +0.03%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.5σ; order book 35/65 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.322 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81305.83,"band":44.13,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T12:01:30.749Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81314.2,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T12:05:56.913Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.31682611725779153,"delta":-27,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 44% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.3168. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0343. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.028,"ret1":0.0056,"mom3":0.0138,"rev20":0.0134,"book":-0.0343}},"prev_hash":"25361c7647046c20e736c8a3ead3bd10389863dd2b4605935e47f405e1ce31ea","hash":"b27f2feeab4d85c2693cb576c04f2910dfba979a476b73fc6d2bd9be960c0949"},{"id":1789819500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81314.2,"price_at_lock":81333.4,"sigma":0.0005427127574382473,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T12:05:56.913Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T12:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.12690581225771314,"mom3":0.3240841543351333,"rev20":0.5683795741620931,"book":1.412531936597859},"fable":{"p":0.6015711982413452,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 60%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum +0.02%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.6σ; order book 68/32 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.327 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81318.68,"band":44.13,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T12:05:56.913Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81344.8,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T12:10:53.631Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.15874551007083745,"delta":37,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 60% likely; candle closed up (+0.04%). Brier 0.1587. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0279. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0197,"ret1":0.0025,"mom3":0.0064,"rev20":0.0115,"book":0.0279}},"prev_hash":"b27f2feeab4d85c2693cb576c04f2910dfba979a476b73fc6d2bd9be960c0949","hash":"1d2ba67db9e7156668576d919667570b37e469a27ae5fdfd55de8c4a08b9b1fa"},{"id":1789819800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81344.8,"price_at_lock":81344.9,"sigma":0.0005473913509236671,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T12:10:53.631Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T12:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.6874753041628305,"mom3":1.0087894877802284,"rev20":1.1808216155406948,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.6284913635575167,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 63%. Last candle +0.04%; three-candle momentum +0.06%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.2σ; order book 85/15 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.519 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81350.52,"band":44.53,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T12:10:53.631Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81346.4,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T12:15:53.314Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.13801866695135326,"delta":45,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 63% likely; candle closed up (+0.00%). Brier 0.1380. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0369. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0184,"ret1":0.0128,"mom3":0.0187,"rev20":0.0221,"book":0.0369}},"prev_hash":"1d2ba67db9e7156668576d919667570b37e469a27ae5fdfd55de8c4a08b9b1fa","hash":"2d55047cc15ec414a3550307409ed5d89587daabc7baef1e02d6305e71ef53f3"},{"id":1789820100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81346.4,"price_at_lock":81343.1,"sigma":0.0005418224130923083,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T12:15:53.314Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T12:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.03630222304414046,"mom3":0.8579578578431187,"rev20":1.128418562390052,"book":-0.1091262484789584},"fable":{"p":0.5111550213444909,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 51%. Last candle +0.00%; three-candle momentum +0.05%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.1σ; order book 49/51 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.208 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81346.89,"band":44.08,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T12:15:53.314Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81305.6,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T12:20:58.030Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2612794558456869,"delta":-5,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 49% likely; candle closed down (-0.05%). Brier 0.2613. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0287. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0258,"ret1":-0.0009,"mom3":-0.022,"rev20":-0.0287,"book":0.0025}},"prev_hash":"2d55047cc15ec414a3550307409ed5d89587daabc7baef1e02d6305e71ef53f3","hash":"7d160ac1745c7d31425de4d22a8abc4b5d04a19d79d431f70d5973e9e8814fce"},{"id":1789820400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81305.6,"price_at_lock":81304.3,"sigma":0.0005475478006040265,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T12:20:58.030Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T12:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.9160090962201092,"mom3":-0.19280759102566006,"rev20":0.11198227673786625,"book":0.3600580009590212},"fable":{"p":0.5711919195552317,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 57%. Last candle -0.05%; three-candle momentum -0.01%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.1σ; order book 55/45 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.108 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81308.77,"band":44.52,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T12:20:58.030Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81216.9,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T12:25:49.524Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3262602089651903,"delta":-31,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 43% likely; candle closed down (-0.11%). Brier 0.3263. Largest weight change: bias -0.0288. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0288,"ret1":0.0262,"mom3":0.0055,"rev20":-0.003,"book":-0.0106}},"prev_hash":"7d160ac1745c7d31425de4d22a8abc4b5d04a19d79d431f70d5973e9e8814fce","hash":"515c5a0e8e9816fe462bfb15f12fd3ffe84c9faaa2d9d0c473473b351193be15"},{"id":1789820700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81216.9,"price_at_lock":81252.9,"sigma":0.0005969723126173008,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T12:25:49.524Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.827464594346878,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-1.688330326359286,"book":1.7644086150884368},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle -0.11%; three-candle momentum -0.16%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.7σ; order book 72/28 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.509 in log-odds). Raw model said 72%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81226.6,"band":48.48,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T12:25:49.524Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81227,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T12:31:13.074Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09000000000000002,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 70% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0300. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0148,"ret1":-0.0274,"mom3":-0.03,"rev20":-0.0251,"book":0.0262}},"prev_hash":"515c5a0e8e9816fe462bfb15f12fd3ffe84c9faaa2d9d0c473473b351193be15","hash":"ef774ebab768d857b670465fde5cd27f1e83ad35deef6025983e3b3925a7fc22"},{"id":1789821000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81227,"price_at_lock":81237.9,"sigma":0.0005848066794288449,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T12:31:13.074Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T12:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.21264865529482083,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-1.4393555381116527,"book":1.3397292468167992},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum -0.15%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.4σ; order book 67/33 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.421 in log-odds). Raw model said 72%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81236.5,"band":47.5,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T12:31:13.074Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81271.9,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T12:35:48.022Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09000000000000002,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 70% likely; candle closed up (+0.06%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0300. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0148,"ret1":0.0032,"mom3":-0.03,"rev20":-0.0213,"book":0.0198}},"prev_hash":"ef774ebab768d857b670465fde5cd27f1e83ad35deef6025983e3b3925a7fc22","hash":"edfa3f40f007c6aadc62230f02e1a21343e58754f9cb1c4c3d92abfeff5cb295"},{"id":1789821300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81271.9,"price_at_lock":81283.5,"sigma":0.0005970394535736109,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T12:35:48.022Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T12:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.9258548296337967,"mom3":-0.6931125691536041,"rev20":-0.44410883646106053,"book":-0.48608694153930976},"fable":{"p":0.5474017775584434,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 55%. Last candle +0.06%; three-candle momentum -0.04%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.4σ; order book 44/56 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (-0.162 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81274.2,"band":48.52,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T12:35:48.022Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81285.1,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T12:40:58.431Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.20484515095725672,"delta":18,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 55% likely; candle closed up (+0.02%). Brier 0.2048. Largest weight change: bias +0.0224. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0224,"ret1":0.0209,"mom3":-0.0157,"rev20":-0.0098,"book":-0.0113}},"prev_hash":"edfa3f40f007c6aadc62230f02e1a21343e58754f9cb1c4c3d92abfeff5cb295","hash":"7bb91537d4a5324733fdbe69aa97328fd0fff1d724341986d8c10fb098110ed4"},{"id":1789821600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81285.1,"price_at_lock":81275.1,"sigma":0.0005387277775879004,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T12:40:58.431Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.30148391708251,"mom3":1.558389990485308,"rev20":-0.2677132692537,"book":1.3154013881722397},"fable":{"p":0.663985317259213,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 66%. Last candle +0.02%; three-candle momentum +0.08%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.3σ; order book 66/34 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.425 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81292.28,"band":43.79,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T12:40:58.431Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81278.8,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T12:45:55.623Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.4408765015358177,"delta":-76,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 34% likely; candle closed down (-0.01%). Brier 0.4409. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0517. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0334,"ret1":-0.01,"mom3":-0.0517,"rev20":0.0092,"book":-0.044}},"prev_hash":"7bb91537d4a5324733fdbe69aa97328fd0fff1d724341986d8c10fb098110ed4","hash":"f26e5c866e5d9ecefb30fdf578f29f8d83e0c0fa4ed4763b9b0c24956e00c28f"},{"id":1789821900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81278.8,"price_at_lock":81281.4,"sigma":0.0005043198280923117,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T12:45:55.623Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T12:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.1536821974273344,"mom3":1.2644449162868945,"rev20":-0.42793352241017224,"book":1.7356305230875222},"fable":{"p":0.664153800012728,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 66%. Last candle -0.01%; three-candle momentum +0.06%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.4σ; order book 72/28 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.484 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81285.53,"band":40.99,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T12:45:55.623Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81271.7,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T12:50:53.634Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.4411002700713466,"delta":-76,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 34% likely; candle closed down (-0.01%). Brier 0.4411. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0579. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0334,"ret1":0.0051,"mom3":-0.0419,"rev20":0.0145,"book":-0.0579}},"prev_hash":"f26e5c866e5d9ecefb30fdf578f29f8d83e0c0fa4ed4763b9b0c24956e00c28f","hash":"a3b7c7e4dd232c0c9feefcb6089b1fe45675c71d10727763cf52efd3a2b0f114"},{"id":1789822200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81271.7,"price_at_lock":81295,"sigma":0.00046266002547172303,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T12:50:53.634Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T12:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.18880743324601776,"mom3":-0.0052757327184493295,"rev20":-0.5390775060829693,"book":-1.061652591988759},"fable":{"p":0.5162833255890896,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 52%. Last candle -0.01%; three-candle momentum -0.00%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.5σ; order book 37/63 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: order book (-0.235 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81272.31,"band":37.6,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T12:50:53.634Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81332.4,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T12:55:54.827Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2339818211031507,"delta":6,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 52% likely; candle closed up (+0.07%). Brier 0.2340. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0259. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.024,"ret1":-0.0046,"mom3":0,"rev20":-0.0128,"book":-0.0259}},"prev_hash":"a3b7c7e4dd232c0c9feefcb6089b1fe45675c71d10727763cf52efd3a2b0f114","hash":"45b03046ab22d9027c64096b2da8769bbfb43d3394cdd520ed59e663065d667a"},{"id":1789822500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81332.4,"price_at_lock":81329.9,"sigma":0.0004745359458501108,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T12:55:54.827Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.5739112197450111,"mom3":1.2265010125647773,"rev20":1.0168098646559833,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.5457803230558265,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 55%. Last candle +0.07%; three-candle momentum +0.06%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.0σ; order book 75/25 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.390 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81334.17,"band":38.6,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T12:55:54.827Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81332.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T13:01:23.143Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.20631551492326938,"delta":17,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 55% likely; candle closed up (+0.00%). Brier 0.2063. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0452. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0225,"ret1":0.0357,"mom3":0.028,"rev20":0.0234,"book":0.0452}},"prev_hash":"45b03046ab22d9027c64096b2da8769bbfb43d3394cdd520ed59e663065d667a","hash":"59d9c2c8f93d5265091cbc2649bd1b13b14bc3dda5533ca141e2ad18d6b745aa"},{"id":1789822800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81332.5,"price_at_lock":81295.6,"sigma":0.0004719333418264743,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T13:01:23.143Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T13:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.0026052880716305217,"mom3":1.400098830101234,"rev20":1.018113219238903,"book":0.09095818532104251},"fable":{"p":0.4624063814833546,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 46%. Last candle +0.00%; three-candle momentum +0.07%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.0σ; order book 51/49 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.242 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81331.06,"band":38.38,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T13:01:23.143Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81334.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T13:05:50.759Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2890068986698205,"delta":-16,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 46% likely; candle closed up (+0.00%). Brier 0.2890. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0377. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0267,"ret1":0,"mom3":0.0377,"rev20":0.0276,"book":0.0022}},"prev_hash":"59d9c2c8f93d5265091cbc2649bd1b13b14bc3dda5533ca141e2ad18d6b745aa","hash":"177b67debe1e3f87eceededd7117c04a164f0238f077a14bbf490768559c205b"},{"id":1789823100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81334.5,"price_at_lock":81321.3,"sigma":0.0004590253446404789,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T13:05:50.759Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T13:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.05357093278731383,"mom3":1.6833436248328986,"rev20":1.1432395282653318,"book":-0.3981346269708064},"fable":{"p":0.44917028242807855,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 45%. Last candle +0.00%; three-candle momentum +0.08%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.1σ; order book 45/55 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.240 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81332.6,"band":37.33,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T13:05:50.759Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81253.4,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T13:10:51.738Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.20175394261651985,"delta":19,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 55% likely; candle closed down (-0.10%). Brier 0.2018. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0377. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0227,"ret1":-0.0013,"mom3":-0.0377,"rev20":-0.0255,"book":0.0087}},"prev_hash":"177b67debe1e3f87eceededd7117c04a164f0238f077a14bbf490768559c205b","hash":"8826c5c8531fd837c5d73c2584cb5458dff5948943b3ea226ae7ba68a2e8deb1"},{"id":1789823400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81253.4,"price_at_lock":81249.7,"sigma":0.0004326085040793625,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T13:10:51.738Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T13:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-2,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-1.0725894588532174,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.5187400139152736,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 52%. Last candle -0.10%; three-candle momentum -0.10%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.1σ; order book 24/76 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.04%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: order book (-0.502 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81254.06,"band":35.15,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T13:10:51.738Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81244,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T13:16:04.525Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.26909120203681824,"delta":-8,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 48% likely; candle closed down (-0.01%). Brier 0.2691. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0520. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0262,"ret1":0.0518,"mom3":0.052,"rev20":0.0281,"book":0.0516}},"prev_hash":"8826c5c8531fd837c5d73c2584cb5458dff5948943b3ea226ae7ba68a2e8deb1","hash":"0a13df45907461b8fe6aa624e42dd3bdbfc0a0e6083dc5d2c820005f4b451c1c"},{"id":1789823700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81244,"price_at_lock":81262.4,"sigma":0.00042910448067445876,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T13:16:04.525Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T13:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.26960209419131315,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-1.3486762725876498,"book":1.3249016249672847},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle -0.01%; three-candle momentum -0.11%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.3σ; order book 67/33 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.04%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.401 in log-odds). Raw model said 72%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81250.97,"band":34.86,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T13:16:04.525Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81290.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T13:20:57.230Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09000000000000002,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 70% likely; candle closed up (+0.06%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0299. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0148,"ret1":-0.0041,"mom3":-0.0299,"rev20":-0.02,"book":0.0196}},"prev_hash":"0a13df45907461b8fe6aa624e42dd3bdbfc0a0e6083dc5d2c820005f4b451c1c","hash":"7b6d99efdac4c2f627975915ea8fda9029d7280c952dcd714478766bcebdb2fb"},{"id":1789824000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81290.5,"price_at_lock":81264.8,"sigma":0.0004438567720375795,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T13:20:57.230Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T13:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.2894924538907278,"mom3":-1.21763232454566,"rev20":-0.048639051761061175,"book":-1.860502189871162},"fable":{"p":0.462477103292861,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 46%. Last candle +0.06%; three-candle momentum -0.05%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.0σ; order book 27/73 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.04%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.600 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81289.15,"band":36.08,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T13:20:57.230Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81266.8,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T13:25:48.739Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.21388507107015564,"delta":14,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 54% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.2139. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0427. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0233,"ret1":-0.0299,"mom3":0.0282,"rev20":0.0014,"book":0.0427}},"prev_hash":"7b6d99efdac4c2f627975915ea8fda9029d7280c952dcd714478766bcebdb2fb","hash":"b51186b0a0d0a99edf4be43afca38445cba64766d81a86b1f225367eae467618"},{"id":1789824300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81266.8,"price_at_lock":81266.8,"sigma":0.00044507005638025983,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T13:25:48.739Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.6550586330292947,"mom3":0.37098768257339243,"rev20":-0.6756439465334336,"book":-0.7560772467364335},"fable":{"p":0.49897161027449505,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 50%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum +0.02%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.7σ; order book 41/59 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.04%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: order book (-0.276 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81266.76,"band":36.17,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T13:25:48.739Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81234.1,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T13:31:07.820Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.24897266785992256,"delta":0,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 50% likely; candle closed down (-0.04%). Brier 0.2490. Largest weight change: bias -0.0251. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0251,"ret1":0.0163,"mom3":-0.0092,"rev20":0.0171,"book":0.0185}},"prev_hash":"b51186b0a0d0a99edf4be43afca38445cba64766d81a86b1f225367eae467618","hash":"9b4d28c7059cd269d83a59f851c020479e9189a6374beb02b33631f281cc7b50"},{"id":1789824600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81234.1,"price_at_lock":81222.6,"sigma":0.00045104861752898916,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T13:31:07.820Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T13:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.8920952716943156,"mom3":-0.2695393774885556,"rev20":-1.4688467147704651,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle -0.04%; three-candle momentum -0.01%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.5σ; order book 87/13 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.767 in log-odds). Raw model said 76%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81241.43,"band":36.64,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T13:31:07.820Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81262.2,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T13:35:49.313Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09000000000000002,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 70% likely; candle closed up (+0.03%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0296. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0148,"ret1":-0.0135,"mom3":-0.004,"rev20":-0.0218,"book":0.0296}},"prev_hash":"9b4d28c7059cd269d83a59f851c020479e9189a6374beb02b33631f281cc7b50","hash":"3f0f5e299ff6ee8ccdcf886d97cd8601524bd17d231dafac573c76fd6381ac40"},{"id":1789824900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81262.2,"price_at_lock":81262.2,"sigma":0.0004588304458462182,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T13:35:49.313Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T13:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.7539034291566435,"mom3":-0.7584751150718041,"rev20":-0.640006027556812,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.40194923542494154,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 40%. Last candle +0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.03%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.6σ; order book 17/83 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.826 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81258.54,"band":37.29,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T13:35:49.313Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81264.9,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T13:40:55.137Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.35766471700881197,"delta":-43,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 40% likely; candle closed up (+0.00%). Brier 0.3577. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0602. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0297,"ret1":0.0225,"mom3":-0.0226,"rev20":-0.0189,"book":-0.0602}},"prev_hash":"3f0f5e299ff6ee8ccdcf886d97cd8601524bd17d231dafac573c76fd6381ac40","hash":"a36021aa9f4e88d859afec88a642f4cbefb48084d2ed07ad4c049ee735db44a7"},{"id":1789825200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81264.9,"price_at_lock":81271.3,"sigma":0.0004580655598685622,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T13:40:55.137Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T13:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.07253498879411704,"mom3":-0.05073228432970271,"rev20":-0.5098923645468385,"book":1.8302347550766496},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle +0.00%; three-candle momentum -0.00%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.5σ; order book 73/27 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.646 in log-odds). Raw model said 73%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81272.34,"band":37.22,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T13:40:55.137Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81264.4,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T13:45:51.535Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 30% likely; candle closed down (-0.00%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0644. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0352,"ret1":-0.0026,"mom3":0.0019,"rev20":0.0181,"book":-0.0644}},"prev_hash":"a36021aa9f4e88d859afec88a642f4cbefb48084d2ed07ad4c049ee735db44a7","hash":"7c352918b28f3c352bc4090d17067d83e24bd00d8490c34b81f400584dc13364"},{"id":1789825500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81264.4,"price_at_lock":81264.4,"sigma":0.00045757383996531287,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T13:45:51.535Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T13:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.013446393352639878,"mom3":0.8151403693996055,"rev20":-0.45695015915288245,"book":-0.41119236149762695},"fable":{"p":0.5208398313252957,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 52%. Last candle -0.00%; three-candle momentum +0.04%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.5σ; order book 45/55 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (-0.119 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81265.17,"band":37.18,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T13:45:51.535Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81270.1,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T13:50:59.034Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.22959446724437113,"delta":8,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 52% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.2296. Largest weight change: bias +0.0238. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0238,"ret1":-0.0004,"mom3":0.0196,"rev20":-0.0107,"book":-0.0101}},"prev_hash":"7c352918b28f3c352bc4090d17067d83e24bd00d8490c34b81f400584dc13364","hash":"771952ea0326a5a15701728124f518e09970411a7f31a405bb191f8ad57a5ec1"},{"id":1789825800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81270.1,"price_at_lock":81230.9,"sigma":0.00044874274013109874,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T13:50:59.034Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T13:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.15630651744153815,"mom3":0.21663743756756917,"rev20":-0.20727798030774108,"book":1.1417816950579343},"fable":{"p":0.6367024726239792,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 64%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum +0.01%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.2σ; order book 64/36 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.04%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.318 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81275.09,"band":36.47,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T13:50:59.034Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81327.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T13:55:46.916Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.13198509339753062,"delta":47,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 64% likely; candle closed up (+0.07%). Brier 0.1320. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0205. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.018,"ret1":0.0027,"mom3":0.004,"rev20":-0.0035,"book":0.0205}},"prev_hash":"771952ea0326a5a15701728124f518e09970411a7f31a405bb191f8ad57a5ec1","hash":"a086481869ba84d6b295a1805e2a25b6b1522d7e38e5a46b462ac7eed5402073"},{"id":1789826100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81327.5,"price_at_lock":81292.6,"sigma":0.00047776694881893067,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T13:55:46.916Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.4783082331576645,"mom3":1.6122410999145587,"rev20":1.307835771743181,"book":0.3583925743121291},"fable":{"p":0.5082182198152415,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 51%. Last candle +0.07%; three-candle momentum +0.08%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.3σ; order book 54/46 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.322 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81327.82,"band":38.86,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T13:55:46.916Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81348.8,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T14:01:45.723Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.24184931932169013,"delta":3,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 51% likely; candle closed up (+0.03%). Brier 0.2418. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0397. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0244,"ret1":0.0363,"mom3":0.0397,"rev20":0.0324,"book":0.0085}},"prev_hash":"a086481869ba84d6b295a1805e2a25b6b1522d7e38e5a46b462ac7eed5402073","hash":"b7b47db50003c51f235b30f4e103b01eb733733e714d81d65a296097236ec8ec"},{"id":1789826400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81348.8,"price_at_lock":81332.5,"sigma":0.0004674761935740615,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:01:45.723Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T14:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.5602510536415038,"mom3":2,"rev20":1.8403282469340294,"book":1.4629171349454508},"fable":{"p":0.5783110202028837,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 58%. Last candle +0.03%; three-candle momentum +0.10%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.8σ; order book 68/32 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.450 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81351.78,"band":38.03,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:01:45.723Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81372.7,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T14:05:51.233Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.17782159568233274,"delta":29,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 58% likely; candle closed up (+0.03%). Brier 0.1778. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0422. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0208,"ret1":0.0117,"mom3":0.0422,"rev20":0.039,"book":0.0305}},"prev_hash":"b7b47db50003c51f235b30f4e103b01eb733733e714d81d65a296097236ec8ec","hash":"07922ec81b40115bae0ea267bd0445713baab1f4c0813b0effa3b846da20f5b8"},{"id":1789826700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81372.7,"price_at_lock":81418,"sigma":0.0003935161104619346,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:05:51.233Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T14:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.7465935490063266,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":1.4550213334182573},"fable":{"p":0.631863692026778,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 63%. Last candle +0.03%; three-candle momentum +0.13%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.7σ; order book 68/32 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.04%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.492 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81376.92,"band":32.02,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:05:51.233Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81402.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T14:10:55.429Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.135524341248155,"delta":46,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 63% likely; candle closed up (+0.04%). Brier 0.1355. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0370. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0182,"ret1":0.0136,"mom3":0.0368,"rev20":0.037,"book":0.0264}},"prev_hash":"07922ec81b40115bae0ea267bd0445713baab1f4c0813b0effa3b846da20f5b8","hash":"d211c395cd29245fd82caf11798de31fdbecad5b842a061956f2caec96e8fe93"},{"id":1789827000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81402.5,"price_at_lock":81411.9,"sigma":0.0003978964574149236,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:10:55.429Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T14:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.9203806195302976,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":-1.7435986967833401},"fable":{"p":0.40518618287654373,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 41%. Last candle +0.04%; three-candle momentum +0.09%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.3σ; order book 28/72 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.04%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.635 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81399.43,"band":32.39,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:10:55.429Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81379.9,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T14:15:52.533Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.16417584279406394,"delta":34,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 59% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.1642. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0406. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0205,"ret1":-0.0188,"mom3":-0.0406,"rev20":-0.0404,"book":0.035}},"prev_hash":"d211c395cd29245fd82caf11798de31fdbecad5b842a061956f2caec96e8fe93","hash":"c245ed5b32cb9e3de58bf80fc8e5d0cb20a2acd3fba4cda8c32a22d2d0f4b413"},{"id":1789827300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81379.9,"price_at_lock":81403.1,"sigma":0.00039260936235676854,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:15:52.533Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T14:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.707147555448956,"mom3":0.9739452578335718,"rev20":2,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.6485321498371797,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 65%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum +0.04%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.5σ; order book 85/15 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.04%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.799 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81384.65,"band":31.95,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:15:52.533Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81469.2,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T14:20:55.622Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.12352964969807473,"delta":51,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 65% likely; candle closed up (+0.11%). Brier 0.1235. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0353. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0173,"ret1":-0.0126,"mom3":0.0171,"rev20":0.0353,"book":0.0347}},"prev_hash":"c245ed5b32cb9e3de58bf80fc8e5d0cb20a2acd3fba4cda8c32a22d2d0f4b413","hash":"7a62b7cc0a899fa9f29fecb1d922947728f44eda3a04a0f42b663c4527df64f4"},{"id":1789827600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81469.2,"price_at_lock":81514,"sigma":0.00045235906336149226,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:20:55.622Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T14:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":2,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle +0.11%; three-candle momentum +0.12%; price above its 20-candle mean by 4.3σ; order book 83/17 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.868 in log-odds). Raw model said 76%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81476.57,"band":36.85,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:20:55.622Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81465.8,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T14:25:50.023Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 30% likely; candle closed down (-0.00%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0704. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0353,"ret1":-0.0701,"mom3":-0.07,"rev20":-0.0699,"book":-0.0704}},"prev_hash":"7a62b7cc0a899fa9f29fecb1d922947728f44eda3a04a0f42b663c4527df64f4","hash":"c32d35ab6defd4c4c83087d92e192e821403e32ae34fb2b8a6ad05855b332932"},{"id":1789827900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81465.8,"price_at_lock":81484.1,"sigma":0.00045167160438758247,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:25:50.023Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.09239802260745776,"mom3":1.7223935178308434,"rev20":2,"book":0.11168053857114284},"fable":{"p":0.4448672215568952,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 44%. Last candle -0.00%; three-candle momentum +0.08%; price above its 20-candle mean by 4.0σ; order book 51/49 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.425 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81463.77,"band":36.8,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:25:50.023Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81569.1,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T14:31:06.463Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3081724017019613,"delta":-23,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 44% likely; candle closed up (+0.13%). Brier 0.3082. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0557. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0275,"ret1":-0.0026,"mom3":0.0478,"rev20":0.0557,"book":0.0027}},"prev_hash":"c32d35ab6defd4c4c83087d92e192e821403e32ae34fb2b8a6ad05855b332932","hash":"6482f23ef901592be96fb767f9168c3157522f28a286c5bd32612d278475e4c0"},{"id":1789828200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81569.1,"price_at_lock":81527.3,"sigma":0.0005136516223071326,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:31:06.463Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T14:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":2,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":1.0040003988095105},"fable":{"p":0.6081834308816236,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 61%. Last candle +0.13%; three-candle momentum +0.23%; price above its 20-candle mean by 5.6σ; order book 63/37 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.368 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81573.63,"band":41.9,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:31:06.463Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81537.2,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T14:35:49.343Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3698870855989427,"delta":-48,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 39% likely; candle closed down (-0.04%). Brier 0.3699. Largest weight change: last-candle -0.0609. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0307,"ret1":-0.0609,"mom3":-0.0608,"rev20":-0.0607,"book":-0.0309}},"prev_hash":"6482f23ef901592be96fb767f9168c3157522f28a286c5bd32612d278475e4c0","hash":"3ff46f0c1887c53f043ee8dbe6a5f64b723dc09495fe981149e434b9c013689c"},{"id":1789828500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81537.2,"price_at_lock":81538.5,"sigma":0.0005110344321817624,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:35:49.343Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T14:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.765270284178441,"mom3":1.6343394534937532,"rev20":2,"book":1.713484592799962},"fable":{"p":0.5728865946955082,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 57%. Last candle -0.04%; three-candle momentum +0.08%; price above its 20-candle mean by 4.6σ; order book 71/29 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.575 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81540.24,"band":41.67,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:35:49.343Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81501.4,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T14:40:58.734Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.32819905038181546,"delta":-31,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 43% likely; candle closed down (-0.04%). Brier 0.3282. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0571. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0289,"ret1":0.0219,"mom3":-0.0468,"rev20":-0.0571,"book":-0.0494}},"prev_hash":"3ff46f0c1887c53f043ee8dbe6a5f64b723dc09495fe981149e434b9c013689c","hash":"95b346517070478bfccdccde452822d55f7426b4a5aa197aa5ebd02ba348e629"},{"id":1789828800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81501.4,"price_at_lock":81498.6,"sigma":0.0005252169608710614,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:40:58.734Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T14:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.8359657618477732,"mom3":0.8337009912353724,"rev20":2,"book":-0.2410057504559454},"fable":{"p":0.37568500959986173,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 38%. Last candle -0.04%; three-candle momentum +0.04%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.5σ; order book 47/53 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.549 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81496.08,"band":42.81,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:40:58.734Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81523.9,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T14:45:55.648Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.38976920723832476,"delta":-56,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 38% likely; candle closed up (+0.03%). Brier 0.3898. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0627. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.031,"ret1":-0.0261,"mom3":0.0261,"rev20":0.0627,"book":-0.0078}},"prev_hash":"95b346517070478bfccdccde452822d55f7426b4a5aa197aa5ebd02ba348e629","hash":"0da74542768f5acb6c20cc6447cd8ec085242d21dd4661d6b14227ab93c6a314"},{"id":1789829100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81523.9,"price_at_lock":81612.4,"sigma":0.0005261778659849991,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:45:55.648Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T14:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.5246683587262654,"mom3":-1.05301651864241,"rev20":2,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.6079951615165403,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 61%. Last candle +0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.06%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.8σ; order book 81/19 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.557 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81528.53,"band":42.9,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:45:55.648Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81514.7,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T14:50:52.353Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.36965811642752394,"delta":-48,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 39% likely; candle closed down (-0.01%). Brier 0.3697. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0611. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0306,"ret1":-0.0159,"mom3":0.0321,"rev20":-0.0606,"book":-0.0611}},"prev_hash":"0da74542768f5acb6c20cc6447cd8ec085242d21dd4661d6b14227ab93c6a314","hash":"16b125542b91b7851305165315a453d9aaae8bff2735544d5c4e89d89efba668"},{"id":1789829400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81514.7,"price_at_lock":81516.2,"sigma":0.0004642589390514936,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:50:52.353Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T14:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.24307629332341388,"mom3":-0.5941616592153823,"rev20":2,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.5313933799760756,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 53%. Last candle -0.01%; three-candle momentum -0.03%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.7σ; order book 75/25 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.545 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81515.89,"band":37.84,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:50:52.353Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81503.4,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T14:55:49.939Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.28237892428239786,"delta":-13,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 47% likely; candle closed down (-0.01%). Brier 0.2824. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0534. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0268,"ret1":0.0065,"mom3":0.0158,"rev20":-0.0529,"book":-0.0534}},"prev_hash":"16b125542b91b7851305165315a453d9aaae8bff2735544d5c4e89d89efba668","hash":"e125e289406fce2a8e40db67661cd935b5249ce41a62ee0b23dfaff504e8c3bb"},{"id":1789829700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81503.4,"price_at_lock":81533.6,"sigma":0.0004649679840802054,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:55:49.939Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.2981394588714321,"mom3":0.05289231296210095,"rev20":2,"book":1.557132760812439},"fable":{"p":0.4471412256577502,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 45%. Last candle -0.01%; three-candle momentum +0.00%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.0σ; order book 69/31 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.650 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81501.4,"band":37.9,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:55:49.939Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81576.7,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T15:01:31.548Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3056528243672146,"delta":-22,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 45% likely; candle closed up (+0.09%). Brier 0.3057. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0556. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0275,"ret1":-0.0082,"mom3":0.0015,"rev20":0.0556,"book":0.0429}},"prev_hash":"e125e289406fce2a8e40db67661cd935b5249ce41a62ee0b23dfaff504e8c3bb","hash":"1d497a0c470bb0cbf77c601ce44c4949fb029a45eb6d70c7b84d4a20a5be3661"},{"id":1789830000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81576.7,"price_at_lock":81598,"sigma":0.00048453501695527233,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:01:31.548Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T15:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.8561073044122436,"mom3":1.3371032357417543,"rev20":2,"book":1.5023346523711203},"fable":{"p":0.47221964540461847,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 47%. Last candle +0.09%; three-candle momentum +0.06%; price above its 20-candle mean by 4.4σ; order book 69/31 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.539 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81575.6,"band":39.53,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:01:31.548Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81670.7,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T15:05:49.829Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2785521026968267,"delta":-11,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 47% likely; candle closed up (+0.12%). Brier 0.2786. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0530. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0262,"ret1":0.049,"mom3":0.0353,"rev20":0.053,"book":0.0394}},"prev_hash":"1d497a0c470bb0cbf77c601ce44c4949fb029a45eb6d70c7b84d4a20a5be3661","hash":"759b241dd2a7bbb781ee12b4efad862e92561977a9a0aa23c8dfdac583d4a096"},{"id":1789830300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81670.7,"price_at_lock":81692,"sigma":0.0005160522907801665,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:05:49.829Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T15:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":2,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.5869344777775134,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 59%. Last candle +0.12%; three-candle momentum +0.19%; price above its 20-candle mean by 5.9σ; order book 76/24 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.492 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81674.36,"band":42.15,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:05:49.829Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81737.1,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T15:10:56.326Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.1706231256489356,"delta":32,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 59% likely; candle closed up (+0.08%). Brier 0.1706. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0415. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0204,"ret1":0.0413,"mom3":0.0413,"rev20":0.0415,"book":0.0411}},"prev_hash":"759b241dd2a7bbb781ee12b4efad862e92561977a9a0aa23c8dfdac583d4a096","hash":"f90ce3bc4b1771c751ace84d884a731d61d3ff0e9417bd5f30834b07b64d3614"},{"id":1789830600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81737.1,"price_at_lock":81704.4,"sigma":0.0005073693388377582,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:10:56.326Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T15:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.602424523852289,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":-1.5946369589640987},"fable":{"p":0.4123027023938076,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 41%. Last candle +0.08%; three-candle momentum +0.29%; price above its 20-candle mean by 7.0σ; order book 30/70 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.458 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81733.46,"band":41.47,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:10:56.326Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81698.1,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T15:15:55.833Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.1699935184012367,"delta":32,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 59% likely; candle closed down (-0.05%). Brier 0.1700. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0413. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0209,"ret1":-0.0331,"mom3":-0.0413,"rev20":-0.0411,"book":0.0326}},"prev_hash":"f90ce3bc4b1771c751ace84d884a731d61d3ff0e9417bd5f30834b07b64d3614","hash":"558370eb5f0856093e02f29f2c3221ce202b61602c045d3d725f6de9c65df500"},{"id":1789830900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81698.1,"price_at_lock":81727,"sigma":0.0005353017713915569,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:15:55.833Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T15:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.8913467831100624,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.6076379009772561,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 61%. Last candle -0.05%; three-candle momentum +0.15%; price above its 20-candle mean by 5.2σ; order book 86/14 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.640 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81702.81,"band":43.73,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:15:55.833Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81638.7,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T15:20:56.447Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3692238187040457,"delta":-48,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 39% likely; candle closed down (-0.07%). Brier 0.3692. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0611. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0306,"ret1":0.0271,"mom3":-0.0608,"rev20":-0.0605,"book":-0.0611}},"prev_hash":"558370eb5f0856093e02f29f2c3221ce202b61602c045d3d725f6de9c65df500","hash":"b19857b91eca50fe786cd878f8a114293e258c21b26218b53691b88d85d449c3"},{"id":1789831200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81638.7,"price_at_lock":81632.1,"sigma":0.000576046541286009,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:20:56.447Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T15:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.2621672729993412,"mom3":-0.6790866793175943,"rev20":2,"book":1.8371959531469195},"fable":{"p":0.5219266245990983,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 52%. Last candle -0.07%; three-candle momentum -0.04%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.2σ; order book 73/27 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.553 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81639.73,"band":47.03,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:20:56.447Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81666.3,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T15:25:49.237Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.22855415226721146,"delta":9,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 52% likely; candle closed up (+0.03%). Brier 0.2286. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0481. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0237,"ret1":-0.0302,"mom3":-0.0162,"rev20":0.0481,"book":0.0437}},"prev_hash":"b19857b91eca50fe786cd878f8a114293e258c21b26218b53691b88d85d449c3","hash":"85c3f9cde5ab61cb6502a77f96dd6eca7e88659d9f81b89c780061de3d2a8edc"},{"id":1789831500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81666.3,"price_at_lock":81647.4,"sigma":0.0005738823222538252,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:25:49.237Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.5891015352588183,"mom3":-1.5092495680289253,"rev20":2,"book":0.39809727497326647},"fable":{"p":0.5000658619106578,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 50%. Last candle +0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.09%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.4σ; order book 55/45 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.457 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81666.3,"band":46.87,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:25:49.237Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81565.7,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T15:31:11.466Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2500658662484491,"delta":0,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 50% likely; candle closed down (-0.12%). Brier 0.2501. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0498. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0252,"ret1":-0.0148,"mom3":0.0378,"rev20":-0.0498,"book":-0.0103}},"prev_hash":"85c3f9cde5ab61cb6502a77f96dd6eca7e88659d9f81b89c780061de3d2a8edc","hash":"692a5c626a80afb3a7e9e0629c197804bec089c6f427a32d8ff46af18d34d9f8"},{"id":1789831800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81565.7,"price_at_lock":81596.1,"sigma":0.0006579287132044831,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:31:11.466Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T15:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.872303550052648,"mom3":-2,"rev20":0.7873350479185657,"book":-0.3410236016555902},"fable":{"p":0.4796179205945207,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 48%. Last candle -0.12%; three-candle momentum -0.16%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.8σ; order book 46/54 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.219 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81564.61,"band":53.66,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:31:11.466Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81638.2,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T15:35:49.917Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2707975085663706,"delta":-8,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 48% likely; candle closed up (+0.09%). Brier 0.2708. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0520. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0258,"ret1":-0.0487,"mom3":-0.052,"rev20":0.0208,"book":-0.0092}},"prev_hash":"692a5c626a80afb3a7e9e0629c197804bec089c6f427a32d8ff46af18d34d9f8","hash":"345acd8a14909a016d19d71ecf99aa7faf15a2fc1864d1f6b39a60cafed949dc"},{"id":1789832100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81638.2,"price_at_lock":81650.5,"sigma":0.0006663553406629421,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:35:49.917Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T15:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.3339039422392,"mom3":-0.007373381999712215,"rev20":1.8256540771529186,"book":1.0013662404305281},"fable":{"p":0.49639154486969483,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 50%. Last candle +0.09%; three-candle momentum -0.00%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.8σ; order book 63/37 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.470 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81638,"band":54.4,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:35:49.917Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81660.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T15:40:54.318Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2536214760787326,"delta":-1,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 50% likely; candle closed up (+0.03%). Brier 0.2536. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0462. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.025,"ret1":0.0336,"mom3":-0.0001,"rev20":0.0462,"book":0.0249}},"prev_hash":"345acd8a14909a016d19d71ecf99aa7faf15a2fc1864d1f6b39a60cafed949dc","hash":"9b765e786793a062594e64d9b4395255f7f20c5cc426ee6c74b984ddd9753716"},{"id":1789832400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81660.5,"price_at_lock":81702.5,"sigma":0.0006664198059071895,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:40:54.318Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T15:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.4098864358452846,"mom3":-0.10478651734669718,"rev20":1.9486806088138517,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.6129149963531005,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 61%. Last candle +0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.01%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.9σ; order book 80/20 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.616 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81666.64,"band":54.42,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:40:54.318Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81910.8,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T15:45:58.239Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.14983480004832017,"delta":40,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 61% likely; candle closed up (+0.31%). Brier 0.1498. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0384. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0191,"ret1":0.0079,"mom3":-0.0019,"rev20":0.0379,"book":0.0384}},"prev_hash":"9b765e786793a062594e64d9b4395255f7f20c5cc426ee6c74b984ddd9753716","hash":"3d4ff9000d6afe1f1b784dbe3ff1667238b37b3dde523a74cf3b5ba5a02e3fb4"},{"id":1789832700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81910.8,"price_at_lock":81801,"sigma":0.000915035918743537,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:45:58.239Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T15:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":2,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.3,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 30%. Last candle +0.31%; three-candle momentum +0.42%; price above its 20-candle mean by 4.4σ; order book 19/81 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.693 in log-odds). Raw model said 28%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81895.81,"band":74.95,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:45:58.239Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81679.6,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T15:50:53.934Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 70% likely; candle closed down (-0.28%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: last-candle -0.0300. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0153,"ret1":-0.03,"mom3":-0.0299,"rev20":-0.0298,"book":0.0297}},"prev_hash":"3d4ff9000d6afe1f1b784dbe3ff1667238b37b3dde523a74cf3b5ba5a02e3fb4","hash":"d225813f9d7e86c24ddf09fc7b55709b659b07021e8464fb9cc92c91992ad581"},{"id":1789833000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81679.6,"price_at_lock":81708,"sigma":0.0011440062650405528,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:50:53.934Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T15:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-2,"mom3":0.45078707018632014,"rev20":0.9025600305011688,"book":-0.9795979666528456},"fable":{"p":0.4273948865003339,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 43%. Last candle -0.28%; three-candle momentum +0.05%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.9σ; order book 38/62 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.368 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81672.82,"band":93.44,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:50:53.934Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81686.6,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T15:55:48.227Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3278766160059655,"delta":-31,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 43% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.3279. Largest weight change: last-candle -0.0572. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0284,"ret1":-0.0572,"mom3":0.013,"rev20":0.026,"book":-0.0284}},"prev_hash":"d225813f9d7e86c24ddf09fc7b55709b659b07021e8464fb9cc92c91992ad581","hash":"3ea4aa0cd8310e306881fa56ad5169cbd0f67edefe7f3ad26a160a72bda0d8c1"},{"id":1789833300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81686.6,"price_at_lock":81662.3,"sigma":0.0011396208477613956,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:55:48.227Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.07520107559281694,"mom3":0.28803220618231634,"rev20":0.816244349363568,"book":-0.29685872646612876},"fable":{"p":0.49980002449071637,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 50%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum +0.03%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.8σ; order book 46/54 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.145 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81686.58,"band":93.09,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:55:48.227Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81637.2,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T16:01:32.486Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.24980006448092068,"delta":0,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 50% likely; candle closed down (-0.06%). Brier 0.2498. Largest weight change: bias -0.0253. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0253,"ret1":-0.0018,"mom3":-0.0071,"rev20":-0.0202,"book":0.0071}},"prev_hash":"3ea4aa0cd8310e306881fa56ad5169cbd0f67edefe7f3ad26a160a72bda0d8c1","hash":"83e094530e61340f955f5ab0b933d27749691a1bc75cece93357a6494f57da2a"},{"id":1789833600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81637.2,"price_at_lock":81617.3,"sigma":0.0011321218937244803,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:01:32.486Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T16:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.5341742387308711,"mom3":-2,"rev20":0.19604394238607964,"book":-1.1732163155981203},"fable":{"p":0.5149496641692437,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 51%. Last candle -0.06%; three-candle momentum -0.33%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.2σ; order book 35/65 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: order book (-0.416 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81638.58,"band":92.42,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:01:32.486Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81484,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T16:05:51.548Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2651731566280169,"delta":-6,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 49% likely; candle closed down (-0.19%). Brier 0.2652. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0516. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.026,"ret1":0.0138,"mom3":0.0516,"rev20":-0.0049,"book":0.0299}},"prev_hash":"83e094530e61340f955f5ab0b933d27749691a1bc75cece93357a6494f57da2a","hash":"af6d4e0ab6122d92886172b383472d05b3acf4fa7600ca3169db5b57ee248438"},{"id":1789833900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81484,"price_at_lock":81532.5,"sigma":0.0012117319447525502,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:05:51.548Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T16:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.5486886202503358,"mom3":-1.9770421347870575,"rev20":-1.3750542104815326,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle -0.19%; three-candle momentum -0.24%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.4σ; order book 81/19 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.769 in log-odds). Raw model said 82%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81503.75,"band":98.74,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:05:51.548Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81612.7,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T16:10:55.219Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09000000000000002,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 70% likely; candle closed up (+0.16%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0296. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0148,"ret1":-0.0232,"mom3":-0.0296,"rev20":-0.0204,"book":0.0296}},"prev_hash":"af6d4e0ab6122d92886172b383472d05b3acf4fa7600ca3169db5b57ee248438","hash":"565b1a93dcb2695d7af13bdcef9cab3db259591f6b17387e65573c93c9a9c677"},{"id":1789834200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81612.7,"price_at_lock":81711,"sigma":0.0012296426696295321,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:10:55.219Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T16:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.2844798083297606,"mom3":-0.7334607573717304,"rev20":-0.09440437692118588,"book":1.9454501541691456},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle +0.16%; three-candle momentum -0.09%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.1σ; order book 74/26 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.806 in log-odds). Raw model said 73%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81632.77,"band":100.35,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:10:55.219Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81754.2,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T16:15:55.928Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09000000000000002,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 70% likely; candle closed up (+0.17%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0288. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0148,"ret1":0.0194,"mom3":-0.0109,"rev20":-0.0012,"book":0.0288}},"prev_hash":"565b1a93dcb2695d7af13bdcef9cab3db259591f6b17387e65573c93c9a9c677","hash":"c5f46a638ddedf1c0350e9c46ec5a8b93c1e8014ea043be25a3c503f801795f2"},{"id":1789834500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81754.2,"price_at_lock":81769.9,"sigma":0.0012796683088244936,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:15:55.928Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T16:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.3548813952893732,"mom3":1.1226772444299964,"rev20":1.1599779228145368,"book":-0.5836972981007477},"fable":{"p":0.3849041597136689,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 38%. Last candle +0.17%; three-candle momentum +0.14%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.2σ; order book 43/57 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.260 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81742.16,"band":104.62,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:15:55.928Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81815.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T16:20:51.919Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3783428927375478,"delta":-51,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 38% likely; candle closed up (+0.07%). Brier 0.3783. Largest weight change: last-candle +0.0417. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0305,"ret1":0.0417,"mom3":0.0346,"rev20":0.0359,"book":-0.0184}},"prev_hash":"c5f46a638ddedf1c0350e9c46ec5a8b93c1e8014ea043be25a3c503f801795f2","hash":"0c31d3c51d94e4d1d885ff1a8ba208875790aa9ae2d478bca420c04a06b01a20"},{"id":1789834800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81815.5,"price_at_lock":81792.1,"sigma":0.00127929347146213,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:20:51.919Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T16:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.5861114664088781,"mom3":2,"rev20":1.5966080376022005,"book":1.4132788533358647},"fable":{"p":0.6105400868105433,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 61%. Last candle +0.07%; three-candle momentum +0.41%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.6σ; order book 68/32 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.600 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81827.07,"band":104.67,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:20:51.919Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81847.1,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T16:25:49.124Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.15167902398153915,"delta":39,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 61% likely; candle closed up (+0.04%). Brier 0.1517. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0390. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0192,"ret1":0.0114,"mom3":0.039,"rev20":0.0313,"book":0.0271}},"prev_hash":"0c31d3c51d94e4d1d885ff1a8ba208875790aa9ae2d478bca420c04a06b01a20","hash":"51451aa3d8d4ebab36bcf82bdd28b0c9570491ac072a9a80d633e09184097730"},{"id":1789835100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81847.1,"price_at_lock":81863.7,"sigma":0.0012798756262619932,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:25:49.124Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.3017753242723033,"mom3":2,"rev20":1.743287668861911,"book":1.4259156369723884},"fable":{"p":0.6527676439228007,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 65%. Last candle +0.04%; three-candle momentum +0.29%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.7σ; order book 68/32 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.644 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81863.1,"band":104.75,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:25:49.124Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81810.6,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T16:31:16.339Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.42610559695252437,"delta":-70,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 35% likely; candle closed down (-0.04%). Brier 0.4261. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0653. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0329,"ret1":-0.0098,"mom3":-0.0653,"rev20":-0.0567,"book":-0.047}},"prev_hash":"51451aa3d8d4ebab36bcf82bdd28b0c9570491ac072a9a80d633e09184097730","hash":"f5b6acbe7093da18fd210d01b33a34e555bb89d6139b45221eae86fbe3bf1142"},{"id":1789835400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81810.6,"price_at_lock":81848.7,"sigma":0.001285973941008089,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:31:16.339Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T16:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.3467826812863199,"mom3":0.5366282638677059,"rev20":1.2463590965197453,"book":-1.0360400496203583},"fable":{"p":0.391025400058609,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 39%. Last candle -0.04%; three-candle momentum +0.07%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.2σ; order book 37/63 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.419 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81799.14,"band":105.21,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:31:16.339Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81867.7,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T16:35:52.022Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.37085006337377724,"delta":-48,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 39% likely; candle closed up (+0.07%). Brier 0.3709. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0382. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0302,"ret1":-0.0105,"mom3":0.0164,"rev20":0.0382,"book":-0.032}},"prev_hash":"f5b6acbe7093da18fd210d01b33a34e555bb89d6139b45221eae86fbe3bf1142","hash":"31de69ca0fbff727aae6bb87c03215f64e13b793ee35a66d93eb4d5c593a7e72"},{"id":1789835700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81867.7,"price_at_lock":81865.3,"sigma":0.0012884674552553952,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:35:52.022Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T16:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.5416928173640818,"mom3":0.49534425889633726,"rev20":1.6130704639204922,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.6706156100266044,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 67%. Last candle +0.07%; three-candle momentum +0.06%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.6σ; order book 85/15 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.745 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81885.7,"band":105.48,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:35:52.022Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81830.3,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T16:40:53.328Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.4497252964113548,"delta":-80,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 33% likely; candle closed down (-0.05%). Brier 0.4497. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0674. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0338,"ret1":-0.0181,"mom3":-0.0165,"rev20":-0.0539,"book":-0.0674}},"prev_hash":"31de69ca0fbff727aae6bb87c03215f64e13b793ee35a66d93eb4d5c593a7e72","hash":"5492d8209b056cf20a0da2ff7a7b080ee2451587ada12e09faf762ced29cc260"},{"id":1789836000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81830.3,"price_at_lock":81864.7,"sigma":0.0012868182455796893,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:40:53.328Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.3550109941427887,"mom3":-0.15917908434687073,"rev20":1.138600066595148,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.6589182236407183,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 66%. Last candle -0.05%; three-candle momentum -0.02%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.1σ; order book 88/12 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.610 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81847.03,"band":105.3,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:40:53.328Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81851.2,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T16:45:54.729Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.11633677816440308,"delta":53,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 66% likely; candle closed up (+0.03%). Brier 0.1163. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0338. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0168,"ret1":-0.006,"mom3":-0.0026,"rev20":0.0196,"book":0.0338}},"prev_hash":"5492d8209b056cf20a0da2ff7a7b080ee2451587ada12e09faf762ced29cc260","hash":"272e4a96c33b4fd217c3fb5ae441a809a9f1f4661397ecea44a8282976ab23b8"},{"id":1789836300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81851.2,"price_at_lock":81836.6,"sigma":0.001266790348880437,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:45:54.729Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T16:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.20161711534385482,"mom3":0.391955588863167,"rev20":1.271183899715768,"book":-1.8814492650490697},"fable":{"p":0.3400824336243505,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 34%. Last candle +0.03%; three-candle momentum +0.05%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.3σ; order book 26/74 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.638 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81834.62,"band":103.69,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:45:54.729Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81847.4,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T16:50:52.536Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.11565606165986075,"delta":54,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 66% likely; candle closed down (-0.00%). Brier 0.1157. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0317. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0173,"ret1":-0.0034,"mom3":-0.0066,"rev20":-0.0214,"book":0.0317}},"prev_hash":"272e4a96c33b4fd217c3fb5ae441a809a9f1f4661397ecea44a8282976ab23b8","hash":"fef8971e694c7c993a2f182a7925e16708130b439184baa8c817e96e092458fd"},{"id":1789836600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81847.4,"price_at_lock":81823,"sigma":0.001256791576017689,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:50:52.536Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T16:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.036939863361243636,"mom3":-0.19721147291154545,"rev20":1.1905197433156254,"book":-0.9813822306003299},"fable":{"p":0.41470115294620374,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 41%. Last candle -0.00%; three-candle momentum -0.02%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.2σ; order book 38/62 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.364 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81838.63,"band":102.87,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:50:52.536Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81831.5,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T16:55:47.934Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.17197704625491067,"delta":31,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 59% likely; candle closed down (-0.02%). Brier 0.1720. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0245. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.021,"ret1":0.0008,"mom3":0.0042,"rev20":-0.0245,"book":0.02}},"prev_hash":"fef8971e694c7c993a2f182a7925e16708130b439184baa8c817e96e092458fd","hash":"3532a305789c2e48287bb08a1c4dbea619cfe495f62c0885ff7cba6a56511939"},{"id":1789836900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81831.5,"price_at_lock":81847.4,"sigma":0.0012521577743266144,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:55:47.934Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.15514335613122102,"mom3":0.011753269102319918,"rev20":0.9742909119177099,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.6886850579287481,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 69%. Last candle -0.02%; three-candle momentum +0.00%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.0σ; order book 79/21 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.781 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81850.83,"band":102.47,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:55:47.934Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81827.6,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T17:01:28.222Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.47428710901432314,"delta":-90,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 31% likely; candle closed down (-0.00%). Brier 0.4743. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0693. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0347,"ret1":0.0054,"mom3":-0.0003,"rev20":-0.0333,"book":-0.0693}},"prev_hash":"3532a305789c2e48287bb08a1c4dbea619cfe495f62c0885ff7cba6a56511939","hash":"60f30ceb3de8061c48e5c7bf673b344e682efeadabc6f0f241f37f35dde22979"},{"id":1789837200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81827.6,"price_at_lock":81791.9,"sigma":0.0012388831890633922,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:01:28.222Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T17:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.038469251400005955,"mom3":-0.23274880150710703,"rev20":0.85283737052223,"book":-0.2669494165770508},"fable":{"p":0.47721812776542827,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 48%. Last candle -0.00%; three-candle momentum -0.03%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.9σ; order book 47/53 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.246 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81825.29,"band":101.37,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:01:28.222Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81793.9,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T17:05:48.966Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2277371414679406,"delta":9,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 52% likely; candle closed down (-0.04%). Brier 0.2277. Largest weight change: bias -0.0241. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0241,"ret1":0.001,"mom3":0.0056,"rev20":-0.0201,"book":0.006}},"prev_hash":"60f30ceb3de8061c48e5c7bf673b344e682efeadabc6f0f241f37f35dde22979","hash":"f03ce0550fd7b77e729a3567f96088b55ea38b949be36c259139502004e1a414"},{"id":1789837500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81793.9,"price_at_lock":81795.9,"sigma":0.0012429463244061354,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:05:48.966Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T17:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.3313429335376032,"mom3":-0.5259795510807941,"rev20":0.4555256146062896,"book":-1.4247133922655508},"fable":{"p":0.41395642165356794,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 41%. Last candle -0.04%; three-candle momentum -0.07%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.5σ; order book 32/68 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.466 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81785.15,"band":101.67,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:05:48.966Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81801.6,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T17:10:52.626Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3434470757210907,"delta":-37,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 41% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.3434. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0421. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0291,"ret1":-0.0096,"mom3":-0.0153,"rev20":0.0137,"book":-0.0421}},"prev_hash":"f03ce0550fd7b77e729a3567f96088b55ea38b949be36c259139502004e1a414","hash":"6e53a60c5b0ad3db43220ce0fac1c467e079898412f8294cd54996c17bfba7c7"},{"id":1789837800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81801.6,"price_at_lock":81793.8,"sigma":0.0012060836061013845,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:10:52.626Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T17:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.07805350227208833,"mom3":-0.3029320180428317,"rev20":0.42785278404628485,"book":-0.4502145430760692},"fable":{"p":0.49804626024563814,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 50%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum -0.04%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.4σ; order book 44/56 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: order book (-0.128 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81801.41,"band":98.66,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:10:52.626Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81708.3,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T17:15:55.721Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.24805007734466591,"delta":1,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 50% likely; candle closed down (-0.11%). Brier 0.2481. Largest weight change: bias -0.0251. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0251,"ret1":-0.0019,"mom3":0.0076,"rev20":-0.0104,"book":0.0109}},"prev_hash":"6e53a60c5b0ad3db43220ce0fac1c467e079898412f8294cd54996c17bfba7c7","hash":"a9f7bf9a331d01aacd9e9666cb129259b183e6d593da4b783a43eb2895065b33"},{"id":1789838100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81708.3,"price_at_lock":81696.4,"sigma":0.0012244741100597937,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:15:55.721Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T17:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.9314729305959114,"mom3":-1.1909332403396864,"rev20":-0.5455140801595674,"book":-1.8004679650317545},"fable":{"p":0.5031185712163401,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 50%. Last candle -0.11%; three-candle momentum -0.15%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.5σ; order book 27/73 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: order book (-0.533 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81708.61,"band":100.05,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:15:55.721Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81710.6,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T17:21:03.129Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2468911542700913,"delta":1,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 50% likely; candle closed up (+0.00%). Brier 0.2469. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0450. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0246,"ret1":-0.0231,"mom3":-0.0295,"rev20":-0.0132,"book":-0.045}},"prev_hash":"a9f7bf9a331d01aacd9e9666cb129259b183e6d593da4b783a43eb2895065b33","hash":"47d6a63440bc87db30985053aa2669378ad0af2a504cd2e214474663724baf38"},{"id":1789838400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81710.6,"price_at_lock":81650.4,"sigma":0.0012233419415026698,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:21:03.129Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T17:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.02300985043442173,"mom3":-0.8323727721557072,"rev20":-0.5480516552930104,"book":-1.969176410532667},"fable":{"p":0.5004336692308737,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 50%. Last candle +0.00%; three-candle momentum -0.10%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.5σ; order book 25/75 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: order book (-0.495 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81710.64,"band":99.96,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:21:03.129Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81544.5,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T17:25:52.911Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.25043385729987555,"delta":0,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 50% likely; candle closed down (-0.20%). Brier 0.2504. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0490. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0252,"ret1":-0.0005,"mom3":0.021,"rev20":0.014,"book":0.049}},"prev_hash":"47d6a63440bc87db30985053aa2669378ad0af2a504cd2e214474663724baf38","hash":"e02ecaa4882babd72ac7484cff501216b96a110f9ad0d909763fb6aaa01fad63"},{"id":1789838700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81544.5,"price_at_lock":81583.8,"sigma":0.0010883328707210317,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:25:52.911Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.8677961962635181,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-2,"book":-1.8883571332942983},"fable":{"p":0.6522764515456163,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 65%. Last candle -0.20%; three-candle momentum -0.31%; price below its 20-candle mean by 2.3σ; order book 26/74 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.609 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81558.01,"band":88.75,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:25:52.911Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81540.9,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T17:31:08.540Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.4254645692409407,"delta":-70,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 35% likely; candle closed down (-0.00%). Brier 0.4255. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0655. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0328,"ret1":0.061,"mom3":0.0653,"rev20":0.0655,"book":0.0613}},"prev_hash":"e02ecaa4882babd72ac7484cff501216b96a110f9ad0d909763fb6aaa01fad63","hash":"7ce53d22b9844a235d1a5b96f5932fa7858d6162d299d00ca5f15b6c4b50437b"},{"id":1789839000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81540.9,"price_at_lock":81553,"sigma":0.0009105002185389352,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:31:08.540Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T17:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.04848727443508159,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-2,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.4986133710197175,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 50%. Last candle -0.00%; three-candle momentum -0.20%; price below its 20-candle mean by 2.7σ; order book 22/78 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: order book (-0.723 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81540.8,"band":74.24,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:31:08.540Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81541.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T17:35:46.961Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.25138855172021146,"delta":-1,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 50% likely; candle closed up (+0.00%). Brier 0.2514. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0505. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0249,"ret1":-0.0012,"mom3":-0.0501,"rev20":-0.0499,"book":-0.0505}},"prev_hash":"7ce53d22b9844a235d1a5b96f5932fa7858d6162d299d00ca5f15b6c4b50437b","hash":"5bffa3eb102935b6b8b344f578bfb02aa4e9dbcf263d9d8696b00aeefd00829d"},{"id":1789839300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81541.5,"price_at_lock":81493.4,"sigma":0.0009099276485925737,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:35:46.961Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T17:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.008086654497807152,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-2,"book":-1.7573925914806665},"fable":{"p":0.5971586549237612,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 60%. Last candle +0.00%; three-candle momentum -0.21%; price below its 20-candle mean by 2.6σ; order book 28/72 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.578 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81548.71,"band":74.2,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:35:46.961Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81474.2,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T17:40:56.850Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3565984591503557,"delta":-43,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 40% likely; candle closed down (-0.08%). Brier 0.3566. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0600. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.03,"ret1":-0.0002,"mom3":0.0598,"rev20":0.06,"book":0.0522}},"prev_hash":"5bffa3eb102935b6b8b344f578bfb02aa4e9dbcf263d9d8696b00aeefd00829d","hash":"a8ee53b644fc89a78011a7ffeb1f544b0c87c2be09b01e47029e77147dbc2c36"},{"id":1789839600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81474.2,"price_at_lock":81488.6,"sigma":0.0009174249955961,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:40:56.850Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T17:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.8996338737358559,"mom3":-0.9397345943767023,"rev20":-2,"book":-0.7581809979342705},"fable":{"p":0.5992855862241142,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 60%. Last candle -0.08%; three-candle momentum -0.09%; price below its 20-candle mean by 3.3σ; order book 41/59 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.458 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81481.62,"band":74.75,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:40:56.850Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81493.2,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T17:45:54.545Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.1605720414077518,"delta":36,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 60% likely; candle closed up (+0.02%). Brier 0.1606. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0398. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0199,"ret1":-0.018,"mom3":-0.0188,"rev20":-0.0398,"book":-0.0156}},"prev_hash":"a8ee53b644fc89a78011a7ffeb1f544b0c87c2be09b01e47029e77147dbc2c36","hash":"70a784afa2c1c4727058db93628b2979b607a4c4bfe7e2f913f1376c680ea108"},{"id":1789839900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81493.2,"price_at_lock":81533.3,"sigma":0.0008235125188447427,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:45:54.545Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T17:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.28318046499948146,"mom3":-0.710111456397849,"rev20":-2,"book":1.344445607092576},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle +0.02%; three-candle momentum -0.06%; price below its 20-candle mean by 3.4σ; order book 67/33 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.538 in log-odds). Raw model said 77%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81506.62,"band":67.11,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:45:54.545Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81496,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T17:50:54.044Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09000000000000002,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 70% likely; candle closed up (+0.00%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0297. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0148,"ret1":0.0043,"mom3":-0.0106,"rev20":-0.0297,"book":0.0198}},"prev_hash":"70a784afa2c1c4727058db93628b2979b607a4c4bfe7e2f913f1376c680ea108","hash":"41e35ff8df0cd87aca3c0b83b6f3496c766081f59ff87881aaa4a05e7e347091"},{"id":1789840200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81496,"price_at_lock":81477.9,"sigma":0.0007405774176320533,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:50:54.044Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T17:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.04639446753385097,"mom3":-0.7531761520027428,"rev20":-2,"book":0.8908837875148421},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle +0.00%; three-candle momentum -0.06%; price below its 20-candle mean by 3.7σ; order book 61/39 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.597 in log-odds). Raw model said 76%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81508.07,"band":60.35,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:50:54.044Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81453.1,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T17:55:48.446Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 30% likely; candle closed down (-0.05%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0703. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0352,"ret1":-0.0016,"mom3":0.0264,"rev20":0.0703,"book":-0.0315}},"prev_hash":"41e35ff8df0cd87aca3c0b83b6f3496c766081f59ff87881aaa4a05e7e347091","hash":"d97cd1deeaa110a3bac4b20c2d2d181f1ae31731f96982ec75d7ed7f48e7c18f"},{"id":1789840500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81453.1,"price_at_lock":81450.3,"sigma":0.0006189727409633032,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:55:48.446Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.8504513513247091,"mom3":-0.4181845724006841,"rev20":-2,"book":0.2960488970058014},"fable":{"p":0.6842576850346362,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 68%. Last candle -0.05%; three-candle momentum -0.03%; price below its 20-candle mean by 5.0σ; order book 54/46 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.457 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81462.39,"band":50.42,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:55:48.446Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81459.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T18:01:28.434Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09969320945968697,"delta":60,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 68% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.0997. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0313. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0156,"ret1":-0.0134,"mom3":-0.0066,"rev20":-0.0313,"book":0.0043}},"prev_hash":"d97cd1deeaa110a3bac4b20c2d2d181f1ae31731f96982ec75d7ed7f48e7c18f","hash":"38f947f4b4a3638bd0a01fb5a3fd3a0c4e1e985a585640be57676a11a6a46f4a"},{"id":1789840800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81459.5,"price_at_lock":81498.9,"sigma":0.0005846617093008974,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T18:01:28.434Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T18:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.1343902322287266,"mom3":-0.7072032930512632,"rev20":-2,"book":-1.180679388162124},"fable":{"p":0.5763604100619202,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 58%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum -0.04%; price below its 20-candle mean by 4.8σ; order book 35/65 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.519 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81463.14,"band":47.63,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T18:01:28.434Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81486.8,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T18:05:52.028Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.17947050216290442,"delta":28,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 58% likely; candle closed up (+0.03%). Brier 0.1795. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0421. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.021,"ret1":0.0029,"mom3":-0.0149,"rev20":-0.0421,"book":-0.0253}},"prev_hash":"38f947f4b4a3638bd0a01fb5a3fd3a0c4e1e985a585640be57676a11a6a46f4a","hash":"3e36cf5dc09d637799a0cb5609f3a74fadc151cc83bb2b4645c28cb7609de8db"},{"id":1789841100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81486.8,"price_at_lock":81512.6,"sigma":0.0005821224661134373,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T18:05:52.028Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T18:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.5757136763666969,"mom3":-0.1935976063384442,"rev20":-2,"book":1.1001316101749774},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle +0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.01%; price below its 20-candle mean by 3.8σ; order book 64/36 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.604 in log-odds). Raw model said 75%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81496.29,"band":47.44,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T18:05:52.028Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81473.3,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T18:10:53.928Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 30% likely; candle closed down (-0.02%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0703. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0352,"ret1":-0.0201,"mom3":0.0068,"rev20":0.0703,"book":-0.0388}},"prev_hash":"3e36cf5dc09d637799a0cb5609f3a74fadc151cc83bb2b4645c28cb7609de8db","hash":"5c287ce67b55785a10ad663bbd8b9bfd05d67cf3f64bb63cabb970f4b59d2e1c"},{"id":1789841400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81473.3,"price_at_lock":81442.1,"sigma":0.0005798932186469954,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T18:10:53.928Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T18:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.28569226032695294,"mom3":0.42772992611501,"rev20":-2,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.5187901569541968,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 52%. Last candle -0.02%; three-candle momentum +0.02%; price below its 20-candle mean by 3.8σ; order book 19/81 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: order book (-0.552 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81474.19,"band":47.25,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T18:10:53.928Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81383,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T18:16:02.392Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2691432269525602,"delta":-8,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 48% likely; candle closed down (-0.11%). Brier 0.2691. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0521. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0261,"ret1":0.0075,"mom3":-0.0111,"rev20":0.0521,"book":0.0516}},"prev_hash":"5c287ce67b55785a10ad663bbd8b9bfd05d67cf3f64bb63cabb970f4b59d2e1c","hash":"c810f6605c689e0c66c255bea2183c01a8d9c18d9bd19b1b00d8df7a977e31e0"}],"chain":{"head":"c810f6605c689e0c66c255bea2183c01a8d9c18d9bd19b1b00d8df7a977e31e0","length":1736}}