{"now":"2026-09-19T18:20:56.172Z","symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","started_at":"2026-09-13T17:30:07.337Z","updated_at":"2026-09-19T18:20:54.524Z","runs":1740,"pending":{"id":1789842000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81415.5,"price_at_lock":81440.9,"sigma":0.0005907735494569058,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T18:20:54.524Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T18:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.6759718697487606,"mom3":-1.4805389719252744,"rev20":-2,"book":1.1937903392638725},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle +0.04%; three-candle momentum -0.09%; price below its 20-candle mean by 4.0σ; order book 65/35 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.454 in log-odds). Raw model said 73%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81425.12,"band":48.1,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T18:20:54.524Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":null,"scores":null,"adjustment":null,"prev_hash":"3ff249c134568e6aa92f716dad30d25a8d0d0279ccba8eb061dece2bd6b94783","hash":"99454c0aeab612308a3480b563488d3e65b34f2258654a60868fea866e28c3e1"},"recent":[{"id":1789827600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81469.2,"price_at_lock":81514,"sigma":0.00045235906336149226,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:20:55.622Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T14:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":2,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle +0.11%; three-candle momentum +0.12%; price above its 20-candle mean by 4.3σ; order book 83/17 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.868 in log-odds). Raw model said 76%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81476.57,"band":36.85,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:20:55.622Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81465.8,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T14:25:50.023Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 30% likely; candle closed down (-0.00%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0704. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0353,"ret1":-0.0701,"mom3":-0.07,"rev20":-0.0699,"book":-0.0704}},"prev_hash":"7a62b7cc0a899fa9f29fecb1d922947728f44eda3a04a0f42b663c4527df64f4","hash":"c32d35ab6defd4c4c83087d92e192e821403e32ae34fb2b8a6ad05855b332932"},{"id":1789827900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81465.8,"price_at_lock":81484.1,"sigma":0.00045167160438758247,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:25:50.023Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.09239802260745776,"mom3":1.7223935178308434,"rev20":2,"book":0.11168053857114284},"fable":{"p":0.4448672215568952,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 44%. Last candle -0.00%; three-candle momentum +0.08%; price above its 20-candle mean by 4.0σ; order book 51/49 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.425 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81463.77,"band":36.8,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:25:50.023Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81569.1,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T14:31:06.463Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3081724017019613,"delta":-23,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 44% likely; candle closed up (+0.13%). Brier 0.3082. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0557. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0275,"ret1":-0.0026,"mom3":0.0478,"rev20":0.0557,"book":0.0027}},"prev_hash":"c32d35ab6defd4c4c83087d92e192e821403e32ae34fb2b8a6ad05855b332932","hash":"6482f23ef901592be96fb767f9168c3157522f28a286c5bd32612d278475e4c0"},{"id":1789828200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81569.1,"price_at_lock":81527.3,"sigma":0.0005136516223071326,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:31:06.463Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T14:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":2,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":1.0040003988095105},"fable":{"p":0.6081834308816236,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 61%. Last candle +0.13%; three-candle momentum +0.23%; price above its 20-candle mean by 5.6σ; order book 63/37 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.368 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81573.63,"band":41.9,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:31:06.463Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81537.2,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T14:35:49.343Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3698870855989427,"delta":-48,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 39% likely; candle closed down (-0.04%). Brier 0.3699. Largest weight change: last-candle -0.0609. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0307,"ret1":-0.0609,"mom3":-0.0608,"rev20":-0.0607,"book":-0.0309}},"prev_hash":"6482f23ef901592be96fb767f9168c3157522f28a286c5bd32612d278475e4c0","hash":"3ff46f0c1887c53f043ee8dbe6a5f64b723dc09495fe981149e434b9c013689c"},{"id":1789828500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81537.2,"price_at_lock":81538.5,"sigma":0.0005110344321817624,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:35:49.343Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T14:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.765270284178441,"mom3":1.6343394534937532,"rev20":2,"book":1.713484592799962},"fable":{"p":0.5728865946955082,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 57%. Last candle -0.04%; three-candle momentum +0.08%; price above its 20-candle mean by 4.6σ; order book 71/29 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.575 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81540.24,"band":41.67,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:35:49.343Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81501.4,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T14:40:58.734Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.32819905038181546,"delta":-31,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 43% likely; candle closed down (-0.04%). Brier 0.3282. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0571. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0289,"ret1":0.0219,"mom3":-0.0468,"rev20":-0.0571,"book":-0.0494}},"prev_hash":"3ff46f0c1887c53f043ee8dbe6a5f64b723dc09495fe981149e434b9c013689c","hash":"95b346517070478bfccdccde452822d55f7426b4a5aa197aa5ebd02ba348e629"},{"id":1789828800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81501.4,"price_at_lock":81498.6,"sigma":0.0005252169608710614,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:40:58.734Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T14:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.8359657618477732,"mom3":0.8337009912353724,"rev20":2,"book":-0.2410057504559454},"fable":{"p":0.37568500959986173,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 38%. Last candle -0.04%; three-candle momentum +0.04%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.5σ; order book 47/53 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.549 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81496.08,"band":42.81,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:40:58.734Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81523.9,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T14:45:55.648Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.38976920723832476,"delta":-56,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 38% likely; candle closed up (+0.03%). Brier 0.3898. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0627. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.031,"ret1":-0.0261,"mom3":0.0261,"rev20":0.0627,"book":-0.0078}},"prev_hash":"95b346517070478bfccdccde452822d55f7426b4a5aa197aa5ebd02ba348e629","hash":"0da74542768f5acb6c20cc6447cd8ec085242d21dd4661d6b14227ab93c6a314"},{"id":1789829100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81523.9,"price_at_lock":81612.4,"sigma":0.0005261778659849991,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:45:55.648Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T14:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.5246683587262654,"mom3":-1.05301651864241,"rev20":2,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.6079951615165403,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 61%. Last candle +0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.06%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.8σ; order book 81/19 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.557 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81528.53,"band":42.9,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:45:55.648Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81514.7,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T14:50:52.353Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.36965811642752394,"delta":-48,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 39% likely; candle closed down (-0.01%). Brier 0.3697. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0611. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0306,"ret1":-0.0159,"mom3":0.0321,"rev20":-0.0606,"book":-0.0611}},"prev_hash":"0da74542768f5acb6c20cc6447cd8ec085242d21dd4661d6b14227ab93c6a314","hash":"16b125542b91b7851305165315a453d9aaae8bff2735544d5c4e89d89efba668"},{"id":1789829400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81514.7,"price_at_lock":81516.2,"sigma":0.0004642589390514936,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:50:52.353Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T14:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.24307629332341388,"mom3":-0.5941616592153823,"rev20":2,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.5313933799760756,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 53%. Last candle -0.01%; three-candle momentum -0.03%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.7σ; order book 75/25 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.545 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81515.89,"band":37.84,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:50:52.353Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81503.4,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T14:55:49.939Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.28237892428239786,"delta":-13,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 47% likely; candle closed down (-0.01%). Brier 0.2824. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0534. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0268,"ret1":0.0065,"mom3":0.0158,"rev20":-0.0529,"book":-0.0534}},"prev_hash":"16b125542b91b7851305165315a453d9aaae8bff2735544d5c4e89d89efba668","hash":"e125e289406fce2a8e40db67661cd935b5249ce41a62ee0b23dfaff504e8c3bb"},{"id":1789829700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81503.4,"price_at_lock":81533.6,"sigma":0.0004649679840802054,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:55:49.939Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.2981394588714321,"mom3":0.05289231296210095,"rev20":2,"book":1.557132760812439},"fable":{"p":0.4471412256577502,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 45%. Last candle -0.01%; three-candle momentum +0.00%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.0σ; order book 69/31 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.650 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81501.4,"band":37.9,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T14:55:49.939Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81576.7,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T15:01:31.548Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3056528243672146,"delta":-22,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 45% likely; candle closed up (+0.09%). Brier 0.3057. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0556. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0275,"ret1":-0.0082,"mom3":0.0015,"rev20":0.0556,"book":0.0429}},"prev_hash":"e125e289406fce2a8e40db67661cd935b5249ce41a62ee0b23dfaff504e8c3bb","hash":"1d497a0c470bb0cbf77c601ce44c4949fb029a45eb6d70c7b84d4a20a5be3661"},{"id":1789830000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81576.7,"price_at_lock":81598,"sigma":0.00048453501695527233,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:01:31.548Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T15:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.8561073044122436,"mom3":1.3371032357417543,"rev20":2,"book":1.5023346523711203},"fable":{"p":0.47221964540461847,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 47%. Last candle +0.09%; three-candle momentum +0.06%; price above its 20-candle mean by 4.4σ; order book 69/31 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.539 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81575.6,"band":39.53,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:01:31.548Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81670.7,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T15:05:49.829Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2785521026968267,"delta":-11,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 47% likely; candle closed up (+0.12%). Brier 0.2786. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0530. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0262,"ret1":0.049,"mom3":0.0353,"rev20":0.053,"book":0.0394}},"prev_hash":"1d497a0c470bb0cbf77c601ce44c4949fb029a45eb6d70c7b84d4a20a5be3661","hash":"759b241dd2a7bbb781ee12b4efad862e92561977a9a0aa23c8dfdac583d4a096"},{"id":1789830300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81670.7,"price_at_lock":81692,"sigma":0.0005160522907801665,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:05:49.829Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T15:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":2,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.5869344777775134,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 59%. Last candle +0.12%; three-candle momentum +0.19%; price above its 20-candle mean by 5.9σ; order book 76/24 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.492 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81674.36,"band":42.15,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:05:49.829Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81737.1,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T15:10:56.326Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.1706231256489356,"delta":32,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 59% likely; candle closed up (+0.08%). Brier 0.1706. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0415. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0204,"ret1":0.0413,"mom3":0.0413,"rev20":0.0415,"book":0.0411}},"prev_hash":"759b241dd2a7bbb781ee12b4efad862e92561977a9a0aa23c8dfdac583d4a096","hash":"f90ce3bc4b1771c751ace84d884a731d61d3ff0e9417bd5f30834b07b64d3614"},{"id":1789830600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81737.1,"price_at_lock":81704.4,"sigma":0.0005073693388377582,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:10:56.326Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T15:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.602424523852289,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":-1.5946369589640987},"fable":{"p":0.4123027023938076,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 41%. Last candle +0.08%; three-candle momentum +0.29%; price above its 20-candle mean by 7.0σ; order book 30/70 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.458 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81733.46,"band":41.47,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:10:56.326Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81698.1,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T15:15:55.833Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.1699935184012367,"delta":32,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 59% likely; candle closed down (-0.05%). Brier 0.1700. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0413. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0209,"ret1":-0.0331,"mom3":-0.0413,"rev20":-0.0411,"book":0.0326}},"prev_hash":"f90ce3bc4b1771c751ace84d884a731d61d3ff0e9417bd5f30834b07b64d3614","hash":"558370eb5f0856093e02f29f2c3221ce202b61602c045d3d725f6de9c65df500"},{"id":1789830900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81698.1,"price_at_lock":81727,"sigma":0.0005353017713915569,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:15:55.833Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T15:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.8913467831100624,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.6076379009772561,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 61%. Last candle -0.05%; three-candle momentum +0.15%; price above its 20-candle mean by 5.2σ; order book 86/14 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.05%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.640 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81702.81,"band":43.73,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:15:55.833Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81638.7,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T15:20:56.447Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3692238187040457,"delta":-48,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 39% likely; candle closed down (-0.07%). Brier 0.3692. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0611. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0306,"ret1":0.0271,"mom3":-0.0608,"rev20":-0.0605,"book":-0.0611}},"prev_hash":"558370eb5f0856093e02f29f2c3221ce202b61602c045d3d725f6de9c65df500","hash":"b19857b91eca50fe786cd878f8a114293e258c21b26218b53691b88d85d449c3"},{"id":1789831200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81638.7,"price_at_lock":81632.1,"sigma":0.000576046541286009,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:20:56.447Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T15:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.2621672729993412,"mom3":-0.6790866793175943,"rev20":2,"book":1.8371959531469195},"fable":{"p":0.5219266245990983,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 52%. Last candle -0.07%; three-candle momentum -0.04%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.2σ; order book 73/27 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.553 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81639.73,"band":47.03,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:20:56.447Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81666.3,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T15:25:49.237Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.22855415226721146,"delta":9,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 52% likely; candle closed up (+0.03%). Brier 0.2286. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0481. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0237,"ret1":-0.0302,"mom3":-0.0162,"rev20":0.0481,"book":0.0437}},"prev_hash":"b19857b91eca50fe786cd878f8a114293e258c21b26218b53691b88d85d449c3","hash":"85c3f9cde5ab61cb6502a77f96dd6eca7e88659d9f81b89c780061de3d2a8edc"},{"id":1789831500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81666.3,"price_at_lock":81647.4,"sigma":0.0005738823222538252,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:25:49.237Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.5891015352588183,"mom3":-1.5092495680289253,"rev20":2,"book":0.39809727497326647},"fable":{"p":0.5000658619106578,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 50%. Last candle +0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.09%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.4σ; order book 55/45 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.457 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81666.3,"band":46.87,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:25:49.237Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81565.7,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T15:31:11.466Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2500658662484491,"delta":0,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 50% likely; candle closed down (-0.12%). Brier 0.2501. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0498. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0252,"ret1":-0.0148,"mom3":0.0378,"rev20":-0.0498,"book":-0.0103}},"prev_hash":"85c3f9cde5ab61cb6502a77f96dd6eca7e88659d9f81b89c780061de3d2a8edc","hash":"692a5c626a80afb3a7e9e0629c197804bec089c6f427a32d8ff46af18d34d9f8"},{"id":1789831800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81565.7,"price_at_lock":81596.1,"sigma":0.0006579287132044831,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:31:11.466Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T15:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.872303550052648,"mom3":-2,"rev20":0.7873350479185657,"book":-0.3410236016555902},"fable":{"p":0.4796179205945207,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 48%. Last candle -0.12%; three-candle momentum -0.16%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.8σ; order book 46/54 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.219 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81564.61,"band":53.66,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:31:11.466Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81638.2,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T15:35:49.917Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2707975085663706,"delta":-8,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 48% likely; candle closed up (+0.09%). Brier 0.2708. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0520. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0258,"ret1":-0.0487,"mom3":-0.052,"rev20":0.0208,"book":-0.0092}},"prev_hash":"692a5c626a80afb3a7e9e0629c197804bec089c6f427a32d8ff46af18d34d9f8","hash":"345acd8a14909a016d19d71ecf99aa7faf15a2fc1864d1f6b39a60cafed949dc"},{"id":1789832100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81638.2,"price_at_lock":81650.5,"sigma":0.0006663553406629421,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:35:49.917Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T15:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.3339039422392,"mom3":-0.007373381999712215,"rev20":1.8256540771529186,"book":1.0013662404305281},"fable":{"p":0.49639154486969483,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 50%. Last candle +0.09%; three-candle momentum -0.00%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.8σ; order book 63/37 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.470 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81638,"band":54.4,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:35:49.917Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81660.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T15:40:54.318Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2536214760787326,"delta":-1,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 50% likely; candle closed up (+0.03%). Brier 0.2536. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0462. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.025,"ret1":0.0336,"mom3":-0.0001,"rev20":0.0462,"book":0.0249}},"prev_hash":"345acd8a14909a016d19d71ecf99aa7faf15a2fc1864d1f6b39a60cafed949dc","hash":"9b765e786793a062594e64d9b4395255f7f20c5cc426ee6c74b984ddd9753716"},{"id":1789832400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81660.5,"price_at_lock":81702.5,"sigma":0.0006664198059071895,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:40:54.318Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T15:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.4098864358452846,"mom3":-0.10478651734669718,"rev20":1.9486806088138517,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.6129149963531005,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 61%. Last candle +0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.01%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.9σ; order book 80/20 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.616 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81666.64,"band":54.42,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:40:54.318Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81910.8,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T15:45:58.239Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.14983480004832017,"delta":40,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 61% likely; candle closed up (+0.31%). Brier 0.1498. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0384. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0191,"ret1":0.0079,"mom3":-0.0019,"rev20":0.0379,"book":0.0384}},"prev_hash":"9b765e786793a062594e64d9b4395255f7f20c5cc426ee6c74b984ddd9753716","hash":"3d4ff9000d6afe1f1b784dbe3ff1667238b37b3dde523a74cf3b5ba5a02e3fb4"},{"id":1789832700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81910.8,"price_at_lock":81801,"sigma":0.000915035918743537,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:45:58.239Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T15:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":2,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.3,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 30%. Last candle +0.31%; three-candle momentum +0.42%; price above its 20-candle mean by 4.4σ; order book 19/81 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.693 in log-odds). Raw model said 28%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81895.81,"band":74.95,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:45:58.239Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81679.6,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T15:50:53.934Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 70% likely; candle closed down (-0.28%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: last-candle -0.0300. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0153,"ret1":-0.03,"mom3":-0.0299,"rev20":-0.0298,"book":0.0297}},"prev_hash":"3d4ff9000d6afe1f1b784dbe3ff1667238b37b3dde523a74cf3b5ba5a02e3fb4","hash":"d225813f9d7e86c24ddf09fc7b55709b659b07021e8464fb9cc92c91992ad581"},{"id":1789833000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81679.6,"price_at_lock":81708,"sigma":0.0011440062650405528,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:50:53.934Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T15:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-2,"mom3":0.45078707018632014,"rev20":0.9025600305011688,"book":-0.9795979666528456},"fable":{"p":0.4273948865003339,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 43%. Last candle -0.28%; three-candle momentum +0.05%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.9σ; order book 38/62 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.368 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81672.82,"band":93.44,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:50:53.934Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81686.6,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T15:55:48.227Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3278766160059655,"delta":-31,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 43% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.3279. Largest weight change: last-candle -0.0572. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0284,"ret1":-0.0572,"mom3":0.013,"rev20":0.026,"book":-0.0284}},"prev_hash":"d225813f9d7e86c24ddf09fc7b55709b659b07021e8464fb9cc92c91992ad581","hash":"3ea4aa0cd8310e306881fa56ad5169cbd0f67edefe7f3ad26a160a72bda0d8c1"},{"id":1789833300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81686.6,"price_at_lock":81662.3,"sigma":0.0011396208477613956,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:55:48.227Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.07520107559281694,"mom3":0.28803220618231634,"rev20":0.816244349363568,"book":-0.29685872646612876},"fable":{"p":0.49980002449071637,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 50%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum +0.03%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.8σ; order book 46/54 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.145 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81686.58,"band":93.09,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T15:55:48.227Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81637.2,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T16:01:32.486Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.24980006448092068,"delta":0,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 50% likely; candle closed down (-0.06%). Brier 0.2498. Largest weight change: bias -0.0253. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0253,"ret1":-0.0018,"mom3":-0.0071,"rev20":-0.0202,"book":0.0071}},"prev_hash":"3ea4aa0cd8310e306881fa56ad5169cbd0f67edefe7f3ad26a160a72bda0d8c1","hash":"83e094530e61340f955f5ab0b933d27749691a1bc75cece93357a6494f57da2a"},{"id":1789833600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81637.2,"price_at_lock":81617.3,"sigma":0.0011321218937244803,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:01:32.486Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T16:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.5341742387308711,"mom3":-2,"rev20":0.19604394238607964,"book":-1.1732163155981203},"fable":{"p":0.5149496641692437,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 51%. Last candle -0.06%; three-candle momentum -0.33%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.2σ; order book 35/65 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: order book (-0.416 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81638.58,"band":92.42,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:01:32.486Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81484,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T16:05:51.548Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2651731566280169,"delta":-6,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 49% likely; candle closed down (-0.19%). Brier 0.2652. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0516. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.026,"ret1":0.0138,"mom3":0.0516,"rev20":-0.0049,"book":0.0299}},"prev_hash":"83e094530e61340f955f5ab0b933d27749691a1bc75cece93357a6494f57da2a","hash":"af6d4e0ab6122d92886172b383472d05b3acf4fa7600ca3169db5b57ee248438"},{"id":1789833900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81484,"price_at_lock":81532.5,"sigma":0.0012117319447525502,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:05:51.548Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T16:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.5486886202503358,"mom3":-1.9770421347870575,"rev20":-1.3750542104815326,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle -0.19%; three-candle momentum -0.24%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.4σ; order book 81/19 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.769 in log-odds). Raw model said 82%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81503.75,"band":98.74,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:05:51.548Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81612.7,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T16:10:55.219Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09000000000000002,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 70% likely; candle closed up (+0.16%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0296. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0148,"ret1":-0.0232,"mom3":-0.0296,"rev20":-0.0204,"book":0.0296}},"prev_hash":"af6d4e0ab6122d92886172b383472d05b3acf4fa7600ca3169db5b57ee248438","hash":"565b1a93dcb2695d7af13bdcef9cab3db259591f6b17387e65573c93c9a9c677"},{"id":1789834200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81612.7,"price_at_lock":81711,"sigma":0.0012296426696295321,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:10:55.219Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T16:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.2844798083297606,"mom3":-0.7334607573717304,"rev20":-0.09440437692118588,"book":1.9454501541691456},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle +0.16%; three-candle momentum -0.09%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.1σ; order book 74/26 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.806 in log-odds). Raw model said 73%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81632.77,"band":100.35,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:10:55.219Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81754.2,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T16:15:55.928Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09000000000000002,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 70% likely; candle closed up (+0.17%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0288. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0148,"ret1":0.0194,"mom3":-0.0109,"rev20":-0.0012,"book":0.0288}},"prev_hash":"565b1a93dcb2695d7af13bdcef9cab3db259591f6b17387e65573c93c9a9c677","hash":"c5f46a638ddedf1c0350e9c46ec5a8b93c1e8014ea043be25a3c503f801795f2"},{"id":1789834500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81754.2,"price_at_lock":81769.9,"sigma":0.0012796683088244936,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:15:55.928Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T16:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.3548813952893732,"mom3":1.1226772444299964,"rev20":1.1599779228145368,"book":-0.5836972981007477},"fable":{"p":0.3849041597136689,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 38%. Last candle +0.17%; three-candle momentum +0.14%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.2σ; order book 43/57 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.260 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81742.16,"band":104.62,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:15:55.928Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81815.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T16:20:51.919Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3783428927375478,"delta":-51,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 38% likely; candle closed up (+0.07%). Brier 0.3783. Largest weight change: last-candle +0.0417. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0305,"ret1":0.0417,"mom3":0.0346,"rev20":0.0359,"book":-0.0184}},"prev_hash":"c5f46a638ddedf1c0350e9c46ec5a8b93c1e8014ea043be25a3c503f801795f2","hash":"0c31d3c51d94e4d1d885ff1a8ba208875790aa9ae2d478bca420c04a06b01a20"},{"id":1789834800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81815.5,"price_at_lock":81792.1,"sigma":0.00127929347146213,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:20:51.919Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T16:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.5861114664088781,"mom3":2,"rev20":1.5966080376022005,"book":1.4132788533358647},"fable":{"p":0.6105400868105433,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 61%. Last candle +0.07%; three-candle momentum +0.41%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.6σ; order book 68/32 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.600 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81827.07,"band":104.67,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:20:51.919Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81847.1,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T16:25:49.124Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.15167902398153915,"delta":39,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 61% likely; candle closed up (+0.04%). Brier 0.1517. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0390. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0192,"ret1":0.0114,"mom3":0.039,"rev20":0.0313,"book":0.0271}},"prev_hash":"0c31d3c51d94e4d1d885ff1a8ba208875790aa9ae2d478bca420c04a06b01a20","hash":"51451aa3d8d4ebab36bcf82bdd28b0c9570491ac072a9a80d633e09184097730"},{"id":1789835100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81847.1,"price_at_lock":81863.7,"sigma":0.0012798756262619932,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:25:49.124Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.3017753242723033,"mom3":2,"rev20":1.743287668861911,"book":1.4259156369723884},"fable":{"p":0.6527676439228007,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 65%. Last candle +0.04%; three-candle momentum +0.29%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.7σ; order book 68/32 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.644 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81863.1,"band":104.75,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:25:49.124Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81810.6,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T16:31:16.339Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.42610559695252437,"delta":-70,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 35% likely; candle closed down (-0.04%). Brier 0.4261. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0653. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0329,"ret1":-0.0098,"mom3":-0.0653,"rev20":-0.0567,"book":-0.047}},"prev_hash":"51451aa3d8d4ebab36bcf82bdd28b0c9570491ac072a9a80d633e09184097730","hash":"f5b6acbe7093da18fd210d01b33a34e555bb89d6139b45221eae86fbe3bf1142"},{"id":1789835400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81810.6,"price_at_lock":81848.7,"sigma":0.001285973941008089,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:31:16.339Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T16:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.3467826812863199,"mom3":0.5366282638677059,"rev20":1.2463590965197453,"book":-1.0360400496203583},"fable":{"p":0.391025400058609,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 39%. Last candle -0.04%; three-candle momentum +0.07%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.2σ; order book 37/63 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.419 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81799.14,"band":105.21,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:31:16.339Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81867.7,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T16:35:52.022Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.37085006337377724,"delta":-48,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 39% likely; candle closed up (+0.07%). Brier 0.3709. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0382. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0302,"ret1":-0.0105,"mom3":0.0164,"rev20":0.0382,"book":-0.032}},"prev_hash":"f5b6acbe7093da18fd210d01b33a34e555bb89d6139b45221eae86fbe3bf1142","hash":"31de69ca0fbff727aae6bb87c03215f64e13b793ee35a66d93eb4d5c593a7e72"},{"id":1789835700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81867.7,"price_at_lock":81865.3,"sigma":0.0012884674552553952,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:35:52.022Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T16:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.5416928173640818,"mom3":0.49534425889633726,"rev20":1.6130704639204922,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.6706156100266044,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 67%. Last candle +0.07%; three-candle momentum +0.06%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.6σ; order book 85/15 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.745 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81885.7,"band":105.48,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:35:52.022Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81830.3,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T16:40:53.328Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.4497252964113548,"delta":-80,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 33% likely; candle closed down (-0.05%). Brier 0.4497. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0674. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0338,"ret1":-0.0181,"mom3":-0.0165,"rev20":-0.0539,"book":-0.0674}},"prev_hash":"31de69ca0fbff727aae6bb87c03215f64e13b793ee35a66d93eb4d5c593a7e72","hash":"5492d8209b056cf20a0da2ff7a7b080ee2451587ada12e09faf762ced29cc260"},{"id":1789836000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81830.3,"price_at_lock":81864.7,"sigma":0.0012868182455796893,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:40:53.328Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.3550109941427887,"mom3":-0.15917908434687073,"rev20":1.138600066595148,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.6589182236407183,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 66%. Last candle -0.05%; three-candle momentum -0.02%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.1σ; order book 88/12 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.610 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81847.03,"band":105.3,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:40:53.328Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81851.2,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T16:45:54.729Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.11633677816440308,"delta":53,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 66% likely; candle closed up (+0.03%). Brier 0.1163. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0338. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0168,"ret1":-0.006,"mom3":-0.0026,"rev20":0.0196,"book":0.0338}},"prev_hash":"5492d8209b056cf20a0da2ff7a7b080ee2451587ada12e09faf762ced29cc260","hash":"272e4a96c33b4fd217c3fb5ae441a809a9f1f4661397ecea44a8282976ab23b8"},{"id":1789836300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81851.2,"price_at_lock":81836.6,"sigma":0.001266790348880437,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:45:54.729Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T16:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.20161711534385482,"mom3":0.391955588863167,"rev20":1.271183899715768,"book":-1.8814492650490697},"fable":{"p":0.3400824336243505,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 34%. Last candle +0.03%; three-candle momentum +0.05%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.3σ; order book 26/74 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.638 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81834.62,"band":103.69,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:45:54.729Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81847.4,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T16:50:52.536Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.11565606165986075,"delta":54,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 66% likely; candle closed down (-0.00%). Brier 0.1157. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0317. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0173,"ret1":-0.0034,"mom3":-0.0066,"rev20":-0.0214,"book":0.0317}},"prev_hash":"272e4a96c33b4fd217c3fb5ae441a809a9f1f4661397ecea44a8282976ab23b8","hash":"fef8971e694c7c993a2f182a7925e16708130b439184baa8c817e96e092458fd"},{"id":1789836600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81847.4,"price_at_lock":81823,"sigma":0.001256791576017689,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:50:52.536Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T16:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.036939863361243636,"mom3":-0.19721147291154545,"rev20":1.1905197433156254,"book":-0.9813822306003299},"fable":{"p":0.41470115294620374,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 41%. Last candle -0.00%; three-candle momentum -0.02%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.2σ; order book 38/62 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.364 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81838.63,"band":102.87,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:50:52.536Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81831.5,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T16:55:47.934Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.17197704625491067,"delta":31,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 59% likely; candle closed down (-0.02%). Brier 0.1720. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0245. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.021,"ret1":0.0008,"mom3":0.0042,"rev20":-0.0245,"book":0.02}},"prev_hash":"fef8971e694c7c993a2f182a7925e16708130b439184baa8c817e96e092458fd","hash":"3532a305789c2e48287bb08a1c4dbea619cfe495f62c0885ff7cba6a56511939"},{"id":1789836900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81831.5,"price_at_lock":81847.4,"sigma":0.0012521577743266144,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:55:47.934Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.15514335613122102,"mom3":0.011753269102319918,"rev20":0.9742909119177099,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.6886850579287481,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 69%. Last candle -0.02%; three-candle momentum +0.00%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.0σ; order book 79/21 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.781 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81850.83,"band":102.47,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T16:55:47.934Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81827.6,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T17:01:28.222Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.47428710901432314,"delta":-90,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 31% likely; candle closed down (-0.00%). Brier 0.4743. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0693. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0347,"ret1":0.0054,"mom3":-0.0003,"rev20":-0.0333,"book":-0.0693}},"prev_hash":"3532a305789c2e48287bb08a1c4dbea619cfe495f62c0885ff7cba6a56511939","hash":"60f30ceb3de8061c48e5c7bf673b344e682efeadabc6f0f241f37f35dde22979"},{"id":1789837200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81827.6,"price_at_lock":81791.9,"sigma":0.0012388831890633922,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:01:28.222Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T17:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.038469251400005955,"mom3":-0.23274880150710703,"rev20":0.85283737052223,"book":-0.2669494165770508},"fable":{"p":0.47721812776542827,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 48%. Last candle -0.00%; three-candle momentum -0.03%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.9σ; order book 47/53 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.246 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81825.29,"band":101.37,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:01:28.222Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81793.9,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T17:05:48.966Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2277371414679406,"delta":9,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 52% likely; candle closed down (-0.04%). Brier 0.2277. Largest weight change: bias -0.0241. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0241,"ret1":0.001,"mom3":0.0056,"rev20":-0.0201,"book":0.006}},"prev_hash":"60f30ceb3de8061c48e5c7bf673b344e682efeadabc6f0f241f37f35dde22979","hash":"f03ce0550fd7b77e729a3567f96088b55ea38b949be36c259139502004e1a414"},{"id":1789837500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81793.9,"price_at_lock":81795.9,"sigma":0.0012429463244061354,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:05:48.966Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T17:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.3313429335376032,"mom3":-0.5259795510807941,"rev20":0.4555256146062896,"book":-1.4247133922655508},"fable":{"p":0.41395642165356794,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 41%. Last candle -0.04%; three-candle momentum -0.07%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.5σ; order book 32/68 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.466 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81785.15,"band":101.67,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:05:48.966Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81801.6,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T17:10:52.626Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3434470757210907,"delta":-37,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 41% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.3434. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0421. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0291,"ret1":-0.0096,"mom3":-0.0153,"rev20":0.0137,"book":-0.0421}},"prev_hash":"f03ce0550fd7b77e729a3567f96088b55ea38b949be36c259139502004e1a414","hash":"6e53a60c5b0ad3db43220ce0fac1c467e079898412f8294cd54996c17bfba7c7"},{"id":1789837800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81801.6,"price_at_lock":81793.8,"sigma":0.0012060836061013845,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:10:52.626Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T17:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.07805350227208833,"mom3":-0.3029320180428317,"rev20":0.42785278404628485,"book":-0.4502145430760692},"fable":{"p":0.49804626024563814,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 50%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum -0.04%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.4σ; order book 44/56 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: order book (-0.128 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81801.41,"band":98.66,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:10:52.626Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81708.3,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T17:15:55.721Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.24805007734466591,"delta":1,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 50% likely; candle closed down (-0.11%). Brier 0.2481. Largest weight change: bias -0.0251. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0251,"ret1":-0.0019,"mom3":0.0076,"rev20":-0.0104,"book":0.0109}},"prev_hash":"6e53a60c5b0ad3db43220ce0fac1c467e079898412f8294cd54996c17bfba7c7","hash":"a9f7bf9a331d01aacd9e9666cb129259b183e6d593da4b783a43eb2895065b33"},{"id":1789838100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81708.3,"price_at_lock":81696.4,"sigma":0.0012244741100597937,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:15:55.721Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T17:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.9314729305959114,"mom3":-1.1909332403396864,"rev20":-0.5455140801595674,"book":-1.8004679650317545},"fable":{"p":0.5031185712163401,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 50%. Last candle -0.11%; three-candle momentum -0.15%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.5σ; order book 27/73 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: order book (-0.533 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81708.61,"band":100.05,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:15:55.721Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81710.6,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T17:21:03.129Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2468911542700913,"delta":1,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 50% likely; candle closed up (+0.00%). Brier 0.2469. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0450. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0246,"ret1":-0.0231,"mom3":-0.0295,"rev20":-0.0132,"book":-0.045}},"prev_hash":"a9f7bf9a331d01aacd9e9666cb129259b183e6d593da4b783a43eb2895065b33","hash":"47d6a63440bc87db30985053aa2669378ad0af2a504cd2e214474663724baf38"},{"id":1789838400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81710.6,"price_at_lock":81650.4,"sigma":0.0012233419415026698,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:21:03.129Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T17:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.02300985043442173,"mom3":-0.8323727721557072,"rev20":-0.5480516552930104,"book":-1.969176410532667},"fable":{"p":0.5004336692308737,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 50%. Last candle +0.00%; three-candle momentum -0.10%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.5σ; order book 25/75 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: order book (-0.495 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81710.64,"band":99.96,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:21:03.129Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81544.5,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T17:25:52.911Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.25043385729987555,"delta":0,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 50% likely; candle closed down (-0.20%). Brier 0.2504. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0490. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0252,"ret1":-0.0005,"mom3":0.021,"rev20":0.014,"book":0.049}},"prev_hash":"47d6a63440bc87db30985053aa2669378ad0af2a504cd2e214474663724baf38","hash":"e02ecaa4882babd72ac7484cff501216b96a110f9ad0d909763fb6aaa01fad63"},{"id":1789838700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81544.5,"price_at_lock":81583.8,"sigma":0.0010883328707210317,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:25:52.911Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.8677961962635181,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-2,"book":-1.8883571332942983},"fable":{"p":0.6522764515456163,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 65%. Last candle -0.20%; three-candle momentum -0.31%; price below its 20-candle mean by 2.3σ; order book 26/74 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.609 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81558.01,"band":88.75,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:25:52.911Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81540.9,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T17:31:08.540Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.4254645692409407,"delta":-70,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 35% likely; candle closed down (-0.00%). Brier 0.4255. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0655. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0328,"ret1":0.061,"mom3":0.0653,"rev20":0.0655,"book":0.0613}},"prev_hash":"e02ecaa4882babd72ac7484cff501216b96a110f9ad0d909763fb6aaa01fad63","hash":"7ce53d22b9844a235d1a5b96f5932fa7858d6162d299d00ca5f15b6c4b50437b"},{"id":1789839000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81540.9,"price_at_lock":81553,"sigma":0.0009105002185389352,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:31:08.540Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T17:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.04848727443508159,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-2,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.4986133710197175,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 50%. Last candle -0.00%; three-candle momentum -0.20%; price below its 20-candle mean by 2.7σ; order book 22/78 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: order book (-0.723 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81540.8,"band":74.24,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:31:08.540Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81541.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T17:35:46.961Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.25138855172021146,"delta":-1,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 50% likely; candle closed up (+0.00%). Brier 0.2514. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0505. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0249,"ret1":-0.0012,"mom3":-0.0501,"rev20":-0.0499,"book":-0.0505}},"prev_hash":"7ce53d22b9844a235d1a5b96f5932fa7858d6162d299d00ca5f15b6c4b50437b","hash":"5bffa3eb102935b6b8b344f578bfb02aa4e9dbcf263d9d8696b00aeefd00829d"},{"id":1789839300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81541.5,"price_at_lock":81493.4,"sigma":0.0009099276485925737,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:35:46.961Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T17:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.008086654497807152,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-2,"book":-1.7573925914806665},"fable":{"p":0.5971586549237612,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 60%. Last candle +0.00%; three-candle momentum -0.21%; price below its 20-candle mean by 2.6σ; order book 28/72 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.578 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81548.71,"band":74.2,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:35:46.961Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81474.2,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T17:40:56.850Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3565984591503557,"delta":-43,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 40% likely; candle closed down (-0.08%). Brier 0.3566. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0600. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.03,"ret1":-0.0002,"mom3":0.0598,"rev20":0.06,"book":0.0522}},"prev_hash":"5bffa3eb102935b6b8b344f578bfb02aa4e9dbcf263d9d8696b00aeefd00829d","hash":"a8ee53b644fc89a78011a7ffeb1f544b0c87c2be09b01e47029e77147dbc2c36"},{"id":1789839600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81474.2,"price_at_lock":81488.6,"sigma":0.0009174249955961,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:40:56.850Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T17:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.8996338737358559,"mom3":-0.9397345943767023,"rev20":-2,"book":-0.7581809979342705},"fable":{"p":0.5992855862241142,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 60%. Last candle -0.08%; three-candle momentum -0.09%; price below its 20-candle mean by 3.3σ; order book 41/59 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.09%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.458 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81481.62,"band":74.75,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:40:56.850Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81493.2,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T17:45:54.545Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.1605720414077518,"delta":36,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 60% likely; candle closed up (+0.02%). Brier 0.1606. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0398. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0199,"ret1":-0.018,"mom3":-0.0188,"rev20":-0.0398,"book":-0.0156}},"prev_hash":"a8ee53b644fc89a78011a7ffeb1f544b0c87c2be09b01e47029e77147dbc2c36","hash":"70a784afa2c1c4727058db93628b2979b607a4c4bfe7e2f913f1376c680ea108"},{"id":1789839900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81493.2,"price_at_lock":81533.3,"sigma":0.0008235125188447427,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:45:54.545Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T17:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.28318046499948146,"mom3":-0.710111456397849,"rev20":-2,"book":1.344445607092576},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle +0.02%; three-candle momentum -0.06%; price below its 20-candle mean by 3.4σ; order book 67/33 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.08%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.538 in log-odds). Raw model said 77%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81506.62,"band":67.11,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:45:54.545Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81496,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T17:50:54.044Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09000000000000002,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 70% likely; candle closed up (+0.00%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0297. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0148,"ret1":0.0043,"mom3":-0.0106,"rev20":-0.0297,"book":0.0198}},"prev_hash":"70a784afa2c1c4727058db93628b2979b607a4c4bfe7e2f913f1376c680ea108","hash":"41e35ff8df0cd87aca3c0b83b6f3496c766081f59ff87881aaa4a05e7e347091"},{"id":1789840200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81496,"price_at_lock":81477.9,"sigma":0.0007405774176320533,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:50:54.044Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T17:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.04639446753385097,"mom3":-0.7531761520027428,"rev20":-2,"book":0.8908837875148421},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle +0.00%; three-candle momentum -0.06%; price below its 20-candle mean by 3.7σ; order book 61/39 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.07%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.597 in log-odds). Raw model said 76%, capped by policy.","expected_close":81508.07,"band":60.35,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:50:54.044Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81453.1,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T17:55:48.446Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 30% likely; candle closed down (-0.05%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0703. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0352,"ret1":-0.0016,"mom3":0.0264,"rev20":0.0703,"book":-0.0315}},"prev_hash":"41e35ff8df0cd87aca3c0b83b6f3496c766081f59ff87881aaa4a05e7e347091","hash":"d97cd1deeaa110a3bac4b20c2d2d181f1ae31731f96982ec75d7ed7f48e7c18f"},{"id":1789840500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81453.1,"price_at_lock":81450.3,"sigma":0.0006189727409633032,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:55:48.446Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.8504513513247091,"mom3":-0.4181845724006841,"rev20":-2,"book":0.2960488970058014},"fable":{"p":0.6842576850346362,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 68%. Last candle -0.05%; three-candle momentum -0.03%; price below its 20-candle mean by 5.0σ; order book 54/46 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.457 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81462.39,"band":50.42,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T17:55:48.446Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81459.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T18:01:28.434Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09969320945968697,"delta":60,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 68% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.0997. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0313. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0156,"ret1":-0.0134,"mom3":-0.0066,"rev20":-0.0313,"book":0.0043}},"prev_hash":"d97cd1deeaa110a3bac4b20c2d2d181f1ae31731f96982ec75d7ed7f48e7c18f","hash":"38f947f4b4a3638bd0a01fb5a3fd3a0c4e1e985a585640be57676a11a6a46f4a"},{"id":1789840800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":81459.5,"price_at_lock":81498.9,"sigma":0.0005846617093008974,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T18:01:28.434Z","deadline":"2026-09-19T18:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.1343902322287266,"mom3":-0.7072032930512632,"rev20":-2,"book":-1.180679388162124},"fable":{"p":0.5763604100619202,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 58%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum -0.04%; price below its 20-candle mean by 4.8σ; order book 35/65 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.06%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.519 in log-odds). 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Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":81383.93,"band":46.6,"locked_at":"2026-09-19T18:16:02.392Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":81415.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-09-19T18:20:54.524Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.23051881032914046,"delta":8,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 52% likely; candle closed up (+0.04%). Brier 0.2305. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0483. 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