{"now":"2026-11-03T19:33:08.216Z","symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","started_at":"2026-09-13T17:30:07.337Z","updated_at":"2026-11-03T19:30:04.847Z","runs":13764,"pending":{"id":1793734200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77610,"price_at_lock":77621,"sigma":0.0009999260853488776,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T19:30:04.847Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T19:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.2500487694414436,"mom3":1.0394135729400145,"rev20":-0.771462527333685,"book":-1.4312669223899703},"fable":{"p":0.5266613030913567,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 53%. Last candle +0.03%; three-candle momentum +0.10%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.8σ; order book 32/68 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.296 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77612.07,"band":77.6,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T19:30:04.847Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":null,"scores":null,"adjustment":null,"prev_hash":"243f2eb9af872315c04174de0a1ab85f1050730b8641e6da452bf39d351d4cde","hash":"f8342ee60c71d8444b8da443f6a8215e3bdabb3b06b68a59d24b44d42d3632a5"},"recent":[{"id":1793719800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77368.4,"price_at_lock":77392.4,"sigma":0.0013169210777135868,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T15:30:04.902Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T15:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.4635362087694303,"mom3":-0.6209674814662581,"rev20":0.402075314014573,"book":-1.0123770812032946},"fable":{"p":0.5115543503625639,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 51%. Last candle +0.06%; three-candle momentum -0.08%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.4σ; order book 37/63 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: momentum (+0.132 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77369.58,"band":101.89,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T15:30:04.902Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77344,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T15:35:04.853Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2616878533748648,"delta":-5,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 49% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.2617. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0260. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0256,"ret1":-0.0116,"mom3":0.0161,"rev20":-0.01,"book":0.026}},"prev_hash":"657f15d70722229f740edcb62435d67166656b1ca5c56966c0bbe5ecdaafd720","hash":"ed9708a9d84a8e85ef2c6db53e94b2fd8ae5bab72138c3e2422b0bb1ef829ded"},{"id":1793720100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77344,"price_at_lock":77331,"sigma":0.001254475629790804,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T15:35:04.853Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T15:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.2513992523940054,"mom3":0.31253995343897534,"rev20":0.210514277402224,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.5231565164986874,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 52%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum +0.04%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.2σ; order book 8/92 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.167 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77346.25,"band":97.03,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T15:35:04.853Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77397.2,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T15:40:04.883Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.22737970775766655,"delta":9,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 52% likely; candle closed up (+0.07%). Brier 0.2274. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0476. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0238,"ret1":-0.0058,"mom3":0.0076,"rev20":0.0053,"book":-0.0476}},"prev_hash":"ed9708a9d84a8e85ef2c6db53e94b2fd8ae5bab72138c3e2422b0bb1ef829ded","hash":"2b1a353bc810614bc4c8e051e246b09760dccfc52dcedeb418a356342e7a3b99"},{"id":1793720400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77397.2,"price_at_lock":77422.5,"sigma":0.0012627499186314858,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T15:40:04.883Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T15:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.5447128923793492,"mom3":0.7783825713730976,"rev20":0.7535815489380437,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.3228755310377242,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 32%. Last candle +0.07%; three-candle momentum +0.10%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.8σ; order book 76/24 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: order book (-0.263 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77379.89,"band":97.73,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T15:40:04.883Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77600.1,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T15:45:04.970Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.4584975464674439,"delta":-83,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 32% likely; candle closed up (+0.26%). Brier 0.4585. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0678. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0338,"ret1":0.0187,"mom3":0.0265,"rev20":0.0258,"book":0.0678}},"prev_hash":"2b1a353bc810614bc4c8e051e246b09760dccfc52dcedeb418a356342e7a3b99","hash":"5b17423e10ce70963facef58900ecff74e32502b3906e4a8d737cc3b99a254f3"},{"id":1793720700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77600.1,"price_at_lock":77595.1,"sigma":0.0012279183346513122,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T15:45:04.970Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T15:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":2,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":-0.2943116210954196},"fable":{"p":0.3,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 30%. Last candle +0.26%; three-candle momentum +0.30%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.7σ; order book 46/54 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.536 in log-odds). Raw model said 23%, capped by policy.","expected_close":77581.04,"band":95.29,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T15:45:04.970Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77670,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T15:50:04.853Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 30% likely; candle closed up (+0.09%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0703. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0349,"ret1":0.0702,"mom3":0.0702,"rev20":0.0703,"book":-0.0102}},"prev_hash":"5b17423e10ce70963facef58900ecff74e32502b3906e4a8d737cc3b99a254f3","hash":"f93b5b45ea9adf941e777694c97fe8450530f2644b9a7744e2ad6fa12c321cf3"},{"id":1793721000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77670,"price_at_lock":77647.4,"sigma":0.0012334111617326156,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T15:50:04.853Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T15:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.7303096185883082,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.38905508481665185,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 39%. Last candle +0.09%; three-candle momentum +0.42%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.2σ; order book 16/84 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.395 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77659.37,"band":95.8,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T15:50:04.853Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77715.6,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T15:55:05.219Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3732536893883885,"delta":-49,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 39% likely; candle closed up (+0.06%). Brier 0.3733. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0613. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0305,"ret1":0.0225,"mom3":0.0612,"rev20":0.0613,"book":-0.061}},"prev_hash":"f93b5b45ea9adf941e777694c97fe8450530f2644b9a7744e2ad6fa12c321cf3","hash":"73d2f92a52019b6988e7b61e989f30ff9714354dc2b23f011842fe34d5c93d0e"},{"id":1793721300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77715.6,"price_at_lock":77705.7,"sigma":0.001233762094610791,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T15:55:05.219Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T16:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.47586100163921935,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":1.7781287386028677},"fable":{"p":0.3737958578307293,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 37%. Last candle +0.06%; three-candle momentum +0.41%; price above its 20-candle mean by 3.4σ; order book 72/28 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.273 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77703.5,"band":95.88,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T15:55:05.219Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77687.6,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T16:00:06.980Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.13972334333141076,"delta":44,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 63% likely; candle closed down (-0.04%). Brier 0.1397. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0373. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0188,"ret1":-0.0088,"mom3":-0.0373,"rev20":-0.0372,"book":-0.0331}},"prev_hash":"73d2f92a52019b6988e7b61e989f30ff9714354dc2b23f011842fe34d5c93d0e","hash":"985bd615de8e58a85a2a01d0b224213950076050eef11394941c44a2ecc11e4c"},{"id":1793721600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77687.6,"price_at_lock":77711,"sigma":0.0012421280320647407,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:00:06.980Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T16:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.2900570756316229,"mom3":0.9077834551390022,"rev20":2,"book":-0.8095520380550976},"fable":{"p":0.4652897145398307,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 47%. Last candle -0.04%; three-candle momentum +0.11%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.9σ; order book 40/60 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.347 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77684.25,"band":96.5,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:00:06.980Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77585.7,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T16:05:04.920Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.21649451845655715,"delta":13,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 53% likely; candle closed down (-0.13%). Brier 0.2165. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0464. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0234,"ret1":0.0069,"mom3":-0.0211,"rev20":-0.0464,"book":0.019}},"prev_hash":"985bd615de8e58a85a2a01d0b224213950076050eef11394941c44a2ecc11e4c","hash":"38e1ed7b7d73e3b50d22a34bbbd2073c7c3b4d6f36d0398b4ca732510fbfd1d4"},{"id":1793721900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77585.7,"price_at_lock":77581.4,"sigma":0.0012832415949985904,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:05:04.920Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T16:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.0221486293403406,"mom3":-0.8453999621608916,"rev20":1.5731081334416332,"book":-0.1985164973789211},"fable":{"p":0.48942809142957777,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 49%. Last candle -0.13%; three-candle momentum -0.11%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.6σ; order book 48/52 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.346 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77584.65,"band":99.56,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:05:04.920Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77606.4,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T16:10:04.837Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2606836738212436,"delta":-4,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 49% likely; candle closed up (+0.03%). Brier 0.2607. Largest weight change: mean-reversion +0.0404. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0255,"ret1":-0.026,"mom3":-0.0215,"rev20":0.0404,"book":-0.0049}},"prev_hash":"38e1ed7b7d73e3b50d22a34bbbd2073c7c3b4d6f36d0398b4ca732510fbfd1d4","hash":"908ad2c0a7408a2d60b4284a31090af84d54a0c6aca9c98f7b471888e4ad4d72"},{"id":1793722200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77606.4,"price_at_lock":77594.4,"sigma":0.0012621202683134444,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:10:04.837Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T16:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.2113916952313966,"mom3":-1.1133248979149055,"rev20":1.5849118584735353,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.553393814186652,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 55%. Last candle +0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.14%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.6σ; order book 8/92 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.13%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.308 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77611.63,"band":97.95,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:10:04.837Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77631,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T16:15:04.985Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.1994570852067467,"delta":20,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 55% likely; candle closed up (+0.03%). Brier 0.1995. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0445. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0222,"ret1":0.0049,"mom3":-0.0247,"rev20":0.0356,"book":-0.0445}},"prev_hash":"908ad2c0a7408a2d60b4284a31090af84d54a0c6aca9c98f7b471888e4ad4d72","hash":"dba81f450f77c74b4e8e8e462d9db4fb31394673f2e972ff07bacba3fe69aca3"},{"id":1793722500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77631,"price_at_lock":77650,"sigma":0.0010305249674011057,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:15:04.985Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T16:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.30759484367837403,"mom3":-0.7063174121019864,"rev20":2,"book":0.6899996013881967},"fable":{"p":0.43742617809060474,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 44%. Last candle +0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.07%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.1σ; order book 59/41 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.288 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77625.99,"band":80,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:15:04.985Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77559.3,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T16:20:04.907Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.19134166127895347,"delta":23,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 56% likely; candle closed down (-0.09%). Brier 0.1913. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0436. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.022,"ret1":-0.0066,"mom3":0.0156,"rev20":-0.0436,"book":-0.0149}},"prev_hash":"dba81f450f77c74b4e8e8e462d9db4fb31394673f2e972ff07bacba3fe69aca3","hash":"369d62922a321006bc2dfae49f542e0538de2a94d2a2c8dc87add20eed3fb009"},{"id":1793722800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77559.3,"price_at_lock":77546.5,"sigma":0.0009957843771770517,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:20:04.907Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T16:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.9275101411235959,"mom3":-0.34125279190301167,"rev20":1.113980655695474,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.6216847962365307,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 62%. Last candle -0.09%; three-candle momentum -0.03%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.1σ; order book 20/80 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.426 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77568.7,"band":77.23,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:20:04.907Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77429.2,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T16:25:04.911Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.38649198587165673,"delta":-55,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 38% likely; candle closed down (-0.17%). Brier 0.3865. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0624. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0312,"ret1":0.029,"mom3":0.0107,"rev20":-0.0344,"book":0.0624}},"prev_hash":"369d62922a321006bc2dfae49f542e0538de2a94d2a2c8dc87add20eed3fb009","hash":"ca6dcb10c159995bbb43952942dd6024c72063094eafb0aa954fb119a9ead352"},{"id":1793723100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77429.2,"price_at_lock":77432.6,"sigma":0.0010606398095916666,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:25:04.911Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T16:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.5815229267022233,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-0.5672115344441407,"book":1.7466463191376504},"fable":{"p":0.5844154931024192,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 58%. Last candle -0.17%; three-candle momentum -0.23%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.6σ; order book 72/28 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (-0.263 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77436.13,"band":82.12,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:25:04.911Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77560.3,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T16:30:05.105Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.17271048237330536,"delta":31,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 58% likely; candle closed up (+0.17%). Brier 0.1727. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0414. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0207,"ret1":-0.0327,"mom3":-0.0414,"rev20":-0.0116,"book":0.0364}},"prev_hash":"ca6dcb10c159995bbb43952942dd6024c72063094eafb0aa954fb119a9ead352","hash":"20393b85e47a7033d316de3541dd992d264ec9781cec1e5a6f65762debdcfea8"},{"id":1793723400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77560.3,"price_at_lock":77547.7,"sigma":0.0011203846992968221,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:30:05.105Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T16:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.5112306403231581,"mom3":-0.8103168474985891,"rev20":0.8681309931419666,"book":0.36600652603421263},"fable":{"p":0.4340382405858187,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 43%. Last candle +0.17%; three-candle momentum -0.09%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.9σ; order book 55/45 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: last candle (-0.232 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77554.57,"band":86.9,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:30:05.105Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77515.3,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T16:35:04.866Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.18838919429083303,"delta":25,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 57% likely; candle closed down (-0.06%). Brier 0.1884. Largest weight change: last-candle -0.0326. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0218,"ret1":-0.0326,"mom3":0.0177,"rev20":-0.0186,"book":-0.0078}},"prev_hash":"20393b85e47a7033d316de3541dd992d264ec9781cec1e5a6f65762debdcfea8","hash":"01434fe8d6f381f30a1c3dab2f0cf178fce0b8f62b9381ecb62c3b3ac376d2e7"},{"id":1793723700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77515.3,"price_at_lock":77540,"sigma":0.0010982111374433683,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:35:04.866Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T16:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.5283080032176504,"mom3":-0.5139815133944535,"rev20":0.22647961397695315,"book":0.22432957649960028},"fable":{"p":0.537311275453539,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 54%. Last candle -0.06%; three-candle momentum -0.06%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.2σ; order book 53/47 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: last candle (+0.098 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77518.48,"band":85.13,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:35:04.866Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77592,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T16:40:04.863Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2140808558224309,"delta":14,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 54% likely; candle closed up (+0.10%). Brier 0.2141. Largest weight change: bias +0.0231. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0231,"ret1":-0.012,"mom3":-0.0118,"rev20":0.0055,"book":0.0053}},"prev_hash":"01434fe8d6f381f30a1c3dab2f0cf178fce0b8f62b9381ecb62c3b3ac376d2e7","hash":"c78407fcb33ede133a4644a6ada927603c0b07c3b65d05509a3f9487bcb17969"},{"id":1793724000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77592,"price_at_lock":77592,"sigma":0.0010836349570593846,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:40:04.863Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T16:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.9131138396704755,"mom3":1.9401810694068848,"rev20":1.025026000214086,"book":0.7480983773145946},"fable":{"p":0.3290976293741395,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 33%. Last candle +0.10%; three-candle momentum +0.21%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.0σ; order book 59/41 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.281 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77577.63,"band":84.08,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:40:04.863Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77481.3,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T16:45:04.969Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.10830524965967848,"delta":57,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 67% likely; candle closed down (-0.14%). Brier 0.1083. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0318. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0165,"ret1":-0.0148,"mom3":-0.0318,"rev20":-0.0166,"book":-0.0122}},"prev_hash":"c78407fcb33ede133a4644a6ada927603c0b07c3b65d05509a3f9487bcb17969","hash":"485dc397e9063ffa33638edddcc3271121dd5f9453ccc53ab20402cb9e940290"},{"id":1793724300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77481.3,"price_at_lock":77480.3,"sigma":0.0011218169715438322,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:45:04.969Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T16:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.2717702706801959,"mom3":-0.906926135059483,"rev20":-0.3647846161510376,"book":-1.1590607350116406},"fable":{"p":0.6793223477270515,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 68%. Last candle -0.14%; three-candle momentum -0.10%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.4σ; order book 36/64 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: last candle (+0.271 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77496.89,"band":86.92,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:45:04.969Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77529.7,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T16:50:04.878Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.1028341566672901,"delta":59,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 68% likely; candle closed up (+0.06%). Brier 0.1028. Largest weight change: last-candle -0.0202. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.016,"ret1":-0.0202,"mom3":-0.0144,"rev20":-0.0056,"book":-0.0185}},"prev_hash":"485dc397e9063ffa33638edddcc3271121dd5f9453ccc53ab20402cb9e940290","hash":"05c5f116621bf3e0ec3244adf2ceeb32a2ce24e7d4375d2874dcbc180cfb5e7e"},{"id":1793724600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77529.7,"price_at_lock":77529.7,"sigma":0.0010865008218717425,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:50:04.878Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T16:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.5749345444792447,"mom3":0.17253135406186765,"rev20":0.15091019863682822,"book":-0.8971342249877525},"fable":{"p":0.5036087590495392,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 50%. Last candle +0.06%; three-candle momentum +0.02%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.2σ; order book 39/61 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: last candle (-0.134 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77530,"band":84.24,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:50:04.878Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77695.9,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T16:55:04.918Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.24640426409233845,"delta":1,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 50% likely; candle closed up (+0.21%). Brier 0.2464. Largest weight change: bias +0.0247. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0247,"ret1":0.0145,"mom3":0.0045,"rev20":0.004,"book":-0.0221}},"prev_hash":"05c5f116621bf3e0ec3244adf2ceeb32a2ce24e7d4375d2874dcbc180cfb5e7e","hash":"37c9175ed898a139ce3d8cd4ff5c2647fe1b8ed662e2a3a611f876f4e2cc762c"},{"id":1793724900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77695.9,"price_at_lock":77695.8,"sigma":0.0011751016203100967,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:55:04.918Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T17:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.8242631725508502,"mom3":1.1417463547771367,"rev20":1.8188182852408221,"book":-0.89994066562382},"fable":{"p":0.30430095204932744,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 30%. Last candle +0.21%; three-candle momentum +0.13%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.8σ; order book 39/61 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.12%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.482 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77678.03,"band":91.3,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T16:55:04.918Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77737.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T17:00:05.369Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.4839971653194723,"delta":-94,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 30% likely; candle closed up (+0.05%). Brier 0.4840. Largest weight change: last-candle +0.0637. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0347,"ret1":0.0637,"mom3":0.0399,"rev20":0.0635,"book":-0.0311}},"prev_hash":"37c9175ed898a139ce3d8cd4ff5c2647fe1b8ed662e2a3a611f876f4e2cc762c","hash":"1ea458ed54eeca00091f1c9bcd8eed11384d459228c0b3ea2bc29fceb5caa916"},{"id":1793725200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77737.5,"price_at_lock":77784.3,"sigma":0.0011104239790907344,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:00:05.369Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T17:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.48217689643914985,"mom3":2,"rev20":2,"book":-0.7991858955906044},"fable":{"p":0.38662630546188503,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 39%. Last candle +0.05%; three-candle momentum +0.33%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.2σ; order book 40/60 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.403 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77727.71,"band":86.32,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:00:05.369Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77703.9,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T17:05:04.841Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.14947990007510684,"delta":40,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 61% likely; candle closed down (-0.04%). Brier 0.1495. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0385. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0195,"ret1":-0.0092,"mom3":-0.0385,"rev20":-0.0385,"book":0.0157}},"prev_hash":"1ea458ed54eeca00091f1c9bcd8eed11384d459228c0b3ea2bc29fceb5caa916","hash":"68b83fbf41b24273930ad2388f276b0e0d7735dae901cfcb3b8df2a3444fb9bf"},{"id":1793725500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77703.9,"price_at_lock":77701,"sigma":0.0011205853853620271,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:05:04.841Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T17:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.385712535469323,"mom3":2,"rev20":1.5344369790061478,"book":-0.5852475456009518},"fable":{"p":0.39239106159107173,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 39%. Last candle -0.04%; three-candle momentum +0.22%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.5σ; order book 43/57 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: momentum (-0.370 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77694.53,"band":87.07,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:05:04.841Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77773.3,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T17:10:04.940Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.36918862203442476,"delta":-48,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 39% likely; candle closed up (+0.09%). Brier 0.3692. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0609. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0303,"ret1":-0.0116,"mom3":0.0609,"rev20":0.0469,"book":-0.0176}},"prev_hash":"68b83fbf41b24273930ad2388f276b0e0d7735dae901cfcb3b8df2a3444fb9bf","hash":"f7ebf0fcb6d4b9e96f106151bef353c539b72a6a606fc1c8711d80fd0010b781"},{"id":1793725800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77773.3,"price_at_lock":77773,"sigma":0.0011268394175212198,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:10:04.940Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T17:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.7926010132133849,"mom3":0.8841819041257163,"rev20":2,"book":-0.45574995441441374},"fable":{"p":0.4053959296311054,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 41%. Last candle +0.09%; three-candle momentum +0.10%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.1σ; order book 44/56 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.386 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77765.01,"band":87.64,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:10:04.940Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77753.4,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T17:15:04.861Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.16434585976146815,"delta":34,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 59% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.1643. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0403. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0204,"ret1":-0.0159,"mom3":-0.0178,"rev20":-0.0403,"book":0.0094}},"prev_hash":"f7ebf0fcb6d4b9e96f106151bef353c539b72a6a606fc1c8711d80fd0010b781","hash":"2e78c3de15025f430484c4aae8a389783c76a855527109141ab4c889b35d799d"},{"id":1793726100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77753.4,"price_at_lock":77742,"sigma":0.0011253896120550736,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:15:04.861Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T17:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.22736292482681755,"mom3":0.18219322259183107,"rev20":1.627665630314228,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.5408527132266825,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 54%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum +0.02%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.6σ; order book 23/77 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.387 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77756.97,"band":87.5,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:15:04.861Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77686,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T17:20:04.858Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.29252165740466407,"delta":-17,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 46% likely; candle closed down (-0.09%). Brier 0.2925. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0543. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0272,"ret1":0.0063,"mom3":-0.0048,"rev20":-0.0438,"book":0.0543}},"prev_hash":"2e78c3de15025f430484c4aae8a389783c76a855527109141ab4c889b35d799d","hash":"e6e06843e419b2ad8b18c2f00933ba22fce73cd36383e73556cf59f2de9e7221"},{"id":1793726400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77686,"price_at_lock":77686,"sigma":0.0011469593979873422,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:20:04.858Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T17:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.7557748979552743,"mom3":-0.2001648289259841,"rev20":0.6775539736916353,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.5919184667764523,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 59%. Last candle -0.09%; three-candle momentum -0.02%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.7σ; order book 21/79 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.278 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77694.19,"band":89.1,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:20:04.858Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77696.3,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T17:25:04.836Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.16653053775808144,"delta":33,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 59% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.1665. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0407. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0203,"ret1":-0.0152,"mom3":-0.0039,"rev20":0.0141,"book":-0.0407}},"prev_hash":"e6e06843e419b2ad8b18c2f00933ba22fce73cd36383e73556cf59f2de9e7221","hash":"5a3b9885fb846ffcc22e3fdf997dcbae8119c8a22cd5f45388b1b7c021ebb23e"},{"id":1793726700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77696.3,"price_at_lock":77696,"sigma":0.0010018989309898787,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:25:04.836Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T17:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.13233372913501817,"mom3":-0.9882533490745974,"rev20":0.8461915281343798,"book":-1.9566318576267177},"fable":{"p":0.594831355935653,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 59%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum -0.10%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.8σ; order book 26/74 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.352 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77703.68,"band":77.84,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:25:04.836Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77692.7,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T17:30:04.936Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.35382434200424745,"delta":-42,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 41% likely; candle closed down (-0.00%). Brier 0.3538. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0584. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0299,"ret1":-0.0037,"mom3":0.0295,"rev20":-0.0249,"book":0.0584}},"prev_hash":"5a3b9885fb846ffcc22e3fdf997dcbae8119c8a22cd5f45388b1b7c021ebb23e","hash":"ccca19a3236e0641ac5c709a0a3058126a64b87f45a634dbfb7f914183aaeb74"},{"id":1793727000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77692.7,"price_at_lock":77679.1,"sigma":0.000983367395082911,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:30:04.936Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T17:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.04711794692074528,"mom3":-0.7937952354803682,"rev20":0.8001005607937383,"book":-0.5891898737110132},"fable":{"p":0.5124040005391324,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 51%. Last candle -0.00%; three-candle momentum -0.08%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.8σ; order book 43/57 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.230 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77693.65,"band":76.4,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:30:04.936Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77637.8,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T17:35:04.861Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.26255785976850715,"delta":-5,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 49% likely; candle closed down (-0.07%). Brier 0.2626. Largest weight change: bias -0.0257. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0257,"ret1":0.0014,"mom3":0.0205,"rev20":-0.0202,"book":0.0152}},"prev_hash":"ccca19a3236e0641ac5c709a0a3058126a64b87f45a634dbfb7f914183aaeb74","hash":"c6bcc435364ab2594c3bc35609570ed7436dea8686eb4e4e863e55f180d499d1"},{"id":1793727300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77637.8,"price_at_lock":77654.8,"sigma":0.0009861602008814994,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:35:04.861Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T17:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.7165469612365841,"mom3":-0.6290857465657084,"rev20":0.13154220346597287,"book":1.8226089652718152},"fable":{"p":0.512973782621394,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 51%. Last candle -0.07%; three-candle momentum -0.06%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.1σ; order book 73/27 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: no real lean. Largest pull: order book (-0.193 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77638.79,"band":76.56,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:35:04.861Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77750.1,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T17:40:04.915Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.23719453641411314,"delta":5,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 51% likely; candle closed up (+0.14%). Brier 0.2372. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0445. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0243,"ret1":-0.0172,"mom3":-0.0152,"rev20":0.0035,"book":0.0445}},"prev_hash":"c6bcc435364ab2594c3bc35609570ed7436dea8686eb4e4e863e55f180d499d1","hash":"4bf23a38eba90a620911fbce8a6b94d94546a99202454314d3fe0905389bd80f"},{"id":1793727600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77750.1,"price_at_lock":77733,"sigma":0.001035100535342736,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:40:04.915Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T17:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.397410501530326,"mom3":0.669979375519084,"rev20":1.4839636924340696,"book":-1.9266939482410608},"fable":{"p":0.3503365194865656,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 35%. Last candle +0.14%; three-candle momentum +0.07%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.5σ; order book 26/74 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.452 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77738.06,"band":80.48,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:40:04.915Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77679.7,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T17:45:04.854Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.12273567688596074,"delta":51,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 65% likely; candle closed down (-0.09%). Brier 0.1227. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0338. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0176,"ret1":-0.0243,"mom3":-0.0116,"rev20":-0.0257,"book":0.0338}},"prev_hash":"4bf23a38eba90a620911fbce8a6b94d94546a99202454314d3fe0905389bd80f","hash":"910dda4aa83c6df4eb90143f2bebc049f18ea26fed89badbde19b898a10ba1dd"},{"id":1793727900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77679.7,"price_at_lock":77684.9,"sigma":0.0010120947710972957,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:45:04.854Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T17:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.894644552283618,"mom3":-0.1636554353342312,"rev20":0.561823211589326,"book":0.9806498766340389},"fable":{"p":0.5275498086265668,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 53%. Last candle -0.09%; three-candle momentum -0.02%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.6σ; order book 62/38 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: last candle (+0.219 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77681.87,"band":78.62,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:45:04.854Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77773,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T17:50:04.849Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2232091833287937,"delta":11,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 53% likely; candle closed up (+0.12%). Brier 0.2232. Largest weight change: bias +0.0235. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0235,"ret1":-0.0209,"mom3":-0.0037,"rev20":0.0136,"book":0.0232}},"prev_hash":"910dda4aa83c6df4eb90143f2bebc049f18ea26fed89badbde19b898a10ba1dd","hash":"cb4b9c69e7251704b5eafe2ec47b63a77180e469b2737f8c9c4fa1541535184b"},{"id":1793728200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77773,"price_at_lock":77772.9,"sigma":0.0010416431827010104,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:50:04.849Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T17:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.1530685535717833,"mom3":1.6724357359766588,"rev20":1.5964321527194398,"book":1.4034490230122583},"fable":{"p":0.3,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 30%. Last candle +0.12%; three-candle momentum +0.17%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.6σ; order book 68/32 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.506 in log-odds). Raw model said 28%, capped by policy.","expected_close":77756.8,"band":81.01,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:50:04.849Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77700.1,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T17:55:04.828Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 70% likely; candle closed down (-0.09%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: momentum -0.0250. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0151,"ret1":-0.017,"mom3":-0.025,"rev20":-0.0236,"book":-0.021}},"prev_hash":"cb4b9c69e7251704b5eafe2ec47b63a77180e469b2737f8c9c4fa1541535184b","hash":"094bf949cd8295423756ab69e95d3a7498782bf29f7917d8afc31b54f22dcd89"},{"id":1793728500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77700.1,"price_at_lock":77697.6,"sigma":0.0010646650587056486,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:55:04.828Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T18:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.8804114367054428,"mom3":-0.6027457781579284,"rev20":0.6382123489250155,"book":-1.237765866672239},"fable":{"p":0.5620023216214651,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 56%. Last candle -0.09%; three-candle momentum -0.06%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.6σ; order book 35/65 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: last candle (+0.249 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77705.23,"band":82.72,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T17:55:04.828Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77648.9,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T18:00:04.851Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3158466095079167,"delta":-26,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 44% likely; candle closed down (-0.07%). Brier 0.3158. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0348. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0282,"ret1":0.025,"mom3":0.0171,"rev20":-0.0176,"book":0.0348}},"prev_hash":"094bf949cd8295423756ab69e95d3a7498782bf29f7917d8afc31b54f22dcd89","hash":"9f3ebd30ff4729e6192ff251fb0db42b2e48cbe0bc46c05c9f471b6aff30a54a"},{"id":1793728800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77648.9,"price_at_lock":77643.4,"sigma":0.0010541360003659243,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:00:04.851Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T18:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.6251032225960745,"mom3":-0.3749052367780351,"rev20":-0.03567258380256194,"book":-1.7458910618716557},"fable":{"p":0.5679874114634991,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 57%. Last candle -0.07%; three-candle momentum -0.04%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.0σ; order book 28/72 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: last candle (+0.161 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77654.46,"band":81.85,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:00:04.851Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77735.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T18:05:04.850Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.18663487665400805,"delta":25,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 57% likely; candle closed up (+0.11%). Brier 0.1866. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0377. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0215,"ret1":-0.0132,"mom3":-0.008,"rev20":-0.0004,"book":-0.0377}},"prev_hash":"9f3ebd30ff4729e6192ff251fb0db42b2e48cbe0bc46c05c9f471b6aff30a54a","hash":"ed53d920365e96c0dad30bddd038dc87f92ad4d43f3a9bf29009fae138d10e37"},{"id":1793729100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77735.5,"price_at_lock":77735.5,"sigma":0.0009984644922759048,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:05:04.850Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T18:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.116991734165104,"mom3":-0.481750251330861,"rev20":0.8815844233643815,"book":-0.5531351149081987},"fable":{"p":0.39030943216035663,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 39%. Last candle +0.11%; three-candle momentum -0.05%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.9σ; order book 43/57 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.316 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77726.99,"band":77.62,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:05:04.850Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77833.8,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T18:10:04.900Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3717225885126268,"delta":-49,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said up was 39% likely; candle closed up (+0.13%). Brier 0.3717. Largest weight change: last-candle +0.0343. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0304,"ret1":0.0343,"mom3":-0.0145,"rev20":0.0272,"book":-0.0168}},"prev_hash":"ed53d920365e96c0dad30bddd038dc87f92ad4d43f3a9bf29009fae138d10e37","hash":"17928f714d50e68109d41c67786dd967ad91cbcde6fdd1834def1cc9b73b2aaf"},{"id":1793729400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77833.8,"price_at_lock":77833.8,"sigma":0.0009703450014496295,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:10:04.900Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T18:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":1.3031906293488689,"mom3":1.7734695231078277,"rev20":2,"book":-1.3506815890471302},"fable":{"p":0.3,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 30%. Last candle +0.13%; three-candle momentum +0.17%; price above its 20-candle mean by 2.0σ; order book 33/67 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.662 in log-odds). Raw model said 25%, capped by policy.","expected_close":77818.69,"band":75.53,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:10:04.900Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77701,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T18:15:04.850Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 70% likely; candle closed down (-0.17%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0297. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0151,"ret1":-0.0193,"mom3":-0.0264,"rev20":-0.0297,"book":0.0203}},"prev_hash":"17928f714d50e68109d41c67786dd967ad91cbcde6fdd1834def1cc9b73b2aaf","hash":"1b3f4e7cdafe9070cda893450db3330b334a510d808897a0f441a9116b7e3762"},{"id":1793729700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77701,"price_at_lock":77704.7,"sigma":0.0010425915989431367,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:15:04.850Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T18:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.6364985311084441,"mom3":0.6461029211443966,"rev20":0.13463122464712995,"book":1.547121297340482},"fable":{"p":0.5768605059690658,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 58%. Last candle -0.17%; three-candle momentum +0.07%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.1σ; order book 69/31 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: last candle (+0.418 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77707.23,"band":81.01,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:15:04.850Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77680.3,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T18:20:04.851Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3327680433468866,"delta":-33,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 42% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.3328. Largest weight change: last-candle +0.0475. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0289,"ret1":0.0475,"mom3":-0.0184,"rev20":-0.0035,"book":-0.0446}},"prev_hash":"1b3f4e7cdafe9070cda893450db3330b334a510d808897a0f441a9116b7e3762","hash":"f9540a801b93640c30860a6a4e64a75d819ca10937803ee5b3caf1aabb9a9248"},{"id":1793730000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77680.3,"price_at_lock":77680.4,"sigma":0.0010260328955023759,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:20:04.851Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T18:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.25964648787622757,"mom3":-0.6900957541987545,"rev20":-0.17825530393667222,"book":-1.9604299180055933},"fable":{"p":0.6153596151815294,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 62%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.07%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.2σ; order book 25/75 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: momentum (+0.143 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77689.49,"band":79.7,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:20:04.851Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77693,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T18:25:04.828Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.14794822563330118,"delta":41,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 62% likely; candle closed up (+0.02%). Brier 0.1479. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0376. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0192,"ret1":-0.0048,"mom3":-0.0131,"rev20":-0.0031,"book":-0.0376}},"prev_hash":"f9540a801b93640c30860a6a4e64a75d819ca10937803ee5b3caf1aabb9a9248","hash":"fa25e3833e9e210a0bf0ec9ef96d13acaee9dae873a2be469347d53bc8c1f1ad"},{"id":1793730300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77693,"price_at_lock":77689.1,"sigma":0.0009679145405512943,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:25:04.828Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T18:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.16891017531819286,"mom3":-1.8690853039682123,"rev20":-0.16081233681080648,"book":0.6797104525100365},"fable":{"p":0.6110567304041953,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 61%. Last candle +0.02%; three-candle momentum -0.18%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.2σ; order book 58/42 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: momentum (+0.411 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77701.35,"band":75.2,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:25:04.828Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77671.5,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T18:30:04.952Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3733903277722654,"delta":-49,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 39% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.3734. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0573. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0306,"ret1":-0.0049,"mom3":0.0573,"rev20":0.0053,"book":-0.0207}},"prev_hash":"fa25e3833e9e210a0bf0ec9ef96d13acaee9dae873a2be469347d53bc8c1f1ad","hash":"b628a558c34b0594c2f9518f288af08a22f04f4200ae29a37274334a5f1b19a2"},{"id":1793730600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77671.5,"price_at_lock":77671.5,"sigma":0.0009651354219502842,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:30:04.952Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T18:35:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.2867268168392257,"mom3":-0.3933597521605266,"rev20":-0.5424465421844985,"book":1.1050570651420424},"fable":{"p":0.5601215307002482,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 56%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.04%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.5σ; order book 64/36 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.196 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77676.01,"band":74.96,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:30:04.952Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77869,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T18:35:04.853Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.1934930677534927,"delta":23,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 56% likely; candle closed up (+0.25%). Brier 0.1935. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0244. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0219,"ret1":-0.0061,"mom3":-0.0085,"rev20":-0.0116,"book":0.0244}},"prev_hash":"b628a558c34b0594c2f9518f288af08a22f04f4200ae29a37274334a5f1b19a2","hash":"6edd554178e312bcfa159decc95b7cc850580f500dded1ba13d86f31541c9e59"},{"id":1793730900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77869,"price_at_lock":77848,"sigma":0.0010104125759587798,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:35:04.853Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T18:40:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":2,"mom3":2,"rev20":1.8866647731703603,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.3,"dir":"down","reason":"Down 30%. Last candle +0.25%; three-candle momentum +0.24%; price above its 20-candle mean by 1.9σ; order book 76/24 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly down. Largest pull: mean reversion (-0.705 in log-odds). Raw model said 17%, capped by policy.","expected_close":77853.26,"band":78.68,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:35:04.853Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77744.1,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T18:40:04.850Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.09,"delta":64,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said down was 70% likely; candle closed down (-0.16%). Brier 0.0900. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0299. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0151,"ret1":-0.0298,"mom3":-0.0298,"rev20":-0.0279,"book":-0.0299}},"prev_hash":"6edd554178e312bcfa159decc95b7cc850580f500dded1ba13d86f31541c9e59","hash":"89e98e79d4e29c30c903f8c0e489b45fcd60899cba1caee45b85fbb24c69de67"},{"id":1793731200000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77744.1,"price_at_lock":77742.9,"sigma":0.0010713123526595028,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:40:04.850Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T18:45:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.4972065843115447,"mom3":0.617984192228225,"rev20":0.275390283059334,"book":-0.6507464137603975},"fable":{"p":0.5742178153779895,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 57%. Last candle -0.16%; three-candle momentum +0.07%; price above its 20-candle mean by 0.3σ; order book 42/58 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: last candle (+0.380 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77750.28,"band":83.29,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:40:04.850Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77721.5,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T18:45:04.830Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.3297260994974709,"delta":-32,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 43% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.3297. Largest weight change: last-candle +0.0432. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0288,"ret1":0.0432,"mom3":-0.0175,"rev20":-0.0075,"book":0.0188}},"prev_hash":"89e98e79d4e29c30c903f8c0e489b45fcd60899cba1caee45b85fbb24c69de67","hash":"015db1bd46e167da4bb8144d5f886540a42759aa8019fc47f6542383ab4f72e9"},{"id":1793731500000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77721.5,"price_at_lock":77721.5,"sigma":0.0010688668119782768,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:45:04.830Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T18:50:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.27196774868946816,"mom3":0.6063309277372724,"rev20":-0.006620561892089739,"book":-1.2918744970516132},"fable":{"p":0.5284765468849781,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 53%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum +0.06%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.0σ; order book 34/66 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: order book (+0.148 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77723.87,"band":83.07,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:45:04.830Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77693.5,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T18:50:04.831Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.2792874606074705,"delta":-12,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 47% likely; candle closed down (-0.04%). Brier 0.2793. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0343. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0265,"ret1":0.0074,"mom3":-0.0158,"rev20":0.0006,"book":0.0343}},"prev_hash":"015db1bd46e167da4bb8144d5f886540a42759aa8019fc47f6542383ab4f72e9","hash":"969ec981c9eece11ec6c11137483241cb1f8468769792b328711e396aa07ef9a"},{"id":1793731800000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77693.5,"price_at_lock":77693.6,"sigma":0.0010519717794455587,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:50:04.831Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T18:55:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.342462299245954,"mom3":-2,"rev20":-0.30040165558111315,"book":-0.04596684717282861},"fable":{"p":0.662823432337312,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 66%. Last candle -0.04%; three-candle momentum -0.23%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.3σ; order book 49/51 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: momentum (+0.468 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77706.81,"band":81.73,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:50:04.831Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77608.4,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T18:55:04.849Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.43933490245541523,"delta":-76,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 34% likely; candle closed down (-0.11%). Brier 0.4393. Largest weight change: momentum +0.0665. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0332,"ret1":0.0116,"mom3":0.0665,"rev20":0.0104,"book":0.0016}},"prev_hash":"969ec981c9eece11ec6c11137483241cb1f8468769792b328711e396aa07ef9a","hash":"ee4cbdcdacf4671cbc552e0d7f65df355bee09f7ace55caeb462b68437cb26e5"},{"id":1793732100000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77608.4,"price_at_lock":77606.3,"sigma":0.0010757947772359925,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:55:04.849Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T19:00:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.0181586193903587,"mom3":-1.6232535581349876,"rev20":-1.2249870536340055,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle -0.11%; three-candle momentum -0.17%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.2σ; order book 22/78 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.488 in log-odds). Raw model said 75%, capped by policy.","expected_close":77625.1,"band":83.49,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T18:55:04.849Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77588.9,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T19:00:04.849Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 30% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0701. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.035,"ret1":0.0358,"mom3":0.057,"rev20":0.0433,"book":0.0701}},"prev_hash":"ee4cbdcdacf4671cbc552e0d7f65df355bee09f7ace55caeb462b68437cb26e5","hash":"c07d88ef00c8d5c02c6b2e22e091d96a5794e8e1695a3f0bc10146e6dbdc52a1"},{"id":1793732400000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77588.9,"price_at_lock":77584.2,"sigma":0.0010619238203672476,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T19:00:04.849Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T19:05:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.23660968571296004,"mom3":-1.607320438736044,"rev20":-1.4185423445158964,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.6635346918555294,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 66%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.17%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.4σ; order book 24/76 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.504 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77602.37,"band":82.39,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T19:00:04.849Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77643,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T19:05:04.824Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.11320890358475356,"delta":55,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 66% likely; candle closed up (+0.07%). Brier 0.1132. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0336. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0169,"ret1":-0.0038,"mom3":-0.0269,"rev20":-0.0235,"book":-0.0336}},"prev_hash":"c07d88ef00c8d5c02c6b2e22e091d96a5794e8e1695a3f0bc10146e6dbdc52a1","hash":"85b0c71cb161fad4fb03d611fd47b1c3edefdec571dc221303cd2fdfe46d0bd9"},{"id":1793732700000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77643,"price_at_lock":77625.3,"sigma":0.0010741574612335649,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T19:05:04.824Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T19:10:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.6491270704913524,"mom3":-0.60449843147158,"rev20":-0.7223337829905222,"book":1.2321730268490825},"fable":{"p":0.5402825834363355,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 54%. Last candle +0.07%; three-candle momentum -0.06%; price below its 20-candle mean by 0.7σ; order book 65/35 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.273 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77646.36,"band":83.4,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T19:05:04.824Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77553.3,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T19:10:04.846Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.29190526996464083,"delta":-17,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 46% likely; candle closed down (-0.12%). Brier 0.2919. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0332. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.027,"ret1":-0.0174,"mom3":0.0165,"rev20":0.0199,"book":-0.0332}},"prev_hash":"85b0c71cb161fad4fb03d611fd47b1c3edefdec571dc221303cd2fdfe46d0bd9","hash":"dfff1bda63f4e36d00472105fcf860d6bbd54408b02f95ab9dc8c7148f5e4666"},{"id":1793733000000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77553.3,"price_at_lock":77526.1,"sigma":0.0011016469129081206,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T19:10:04.846Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T19:15:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-1.048691417574467,"mom3":-0.6438400814132141,"rev20":-1.6709132484805043,"book":-2},"fable":{"p":0.7,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 70%. Last candle -0.12%; three-candle momentum -0.07%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.7σ; order book 21/79 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.599 in log-odds). Raw model said 72%, capped by policy.","expected_close":77570.39,"band":85.44,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T19:10:04.846Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77529.4,"dir":"down","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T19:15:04.843Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.48999999999999994,"delta":-96,"hit":false},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":false},"persistence":{"brier":0.2025,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Miss: said down was 30% likely; candle closed down (-0.03%). Brier 0.4900. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0701. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":-0.0349,"ret1":0.0369,"mom3":0.0227,"rev20":0.0588,"book":0.0701}},"prev_hash":"dfff1bda63f4e36d00472105fcf860d6bbd54408b02f95ab9dc8c7148f5e4666","hash":"003bb12f03b622b48a236923ef40dd9de6f80a219c42f70ed2000b906880a0fe"},{"id":1793733300000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77529.4,"price_at_lock":77529.4,"sigma":0.0010938760499802763,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T19:15:04.843Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T19:20:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":-0.28172767088601736,"mom3":-0.7004432801320912,"rev20":-1.9003529109303714,"book":-1.9048904075583009},"fable":{"p":0.6426885375634138,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 64%. Last candle -0.03%; three-candle momentum -0.08%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.9σ; order book 26/74 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.570 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77541.5,"band":84.81,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T19:15:04.843Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77582.5,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T19:20:04.849Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.12767148118857194,"delta":49,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.30250000000000005,"delta":-21,"hit":false}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 64% likely; candle closed up (+0.07%). Brier 0.1277. Largest weight change: order-book -0.0340. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.018,"ret1":-0.0049,"mom3":-0.0124,"rev20":-0.0337,"book":-0.034}},"prev_hash":"003bb12f03b622b48a236923ef40dd9de6f80a219c42f70ed2000b906880a0fe","hash":"743aef525a279b49c608038aa27e5b94b46dabb075983d60b7538d081e99073c"},{"id":1793733600000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77582.5,"price_at_lock":77587.8,"sigma":0.0010529399205748773,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T19:20:04.849Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T19:25:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.6504658587378583,"mom3":-0.7394166843839566,"rev20":-1.2228127351331906,"book":2},"fable":{"p":0.5579970932757057,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 56%. Last candle +0.07%; three-candle momentum -0.08%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.2σ; order book 88/12 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.11%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.408 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77587.24,"band":81.69,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T19:20:04.849Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77590.6,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T19:25:04.814Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.19536656955272522,"delta":22,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 56% likely; candle closed up (+0.01%). Brier 0.1954. Largest weight change: order-book +0.0442. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0222,"ret1":0.0145,"mom3":-0.0162,"rev20":-0.0267,"book":0.0442}},"prev_hash":"743aef525a279b49c608038aa27e5b94b46dabb075983d60b7538d081e99073c","hash":"1b04359729de9d4dc72c2ab79f6944420b381a8bf7e2c2ea3a5afc731edb8bae"},{"id":1793733900000,"symbol":"BTCUSDT","exchange":"bybit-spot","open":77590.6,"price_at_lock":77597,"sigma":0.001037556867695164,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T19:25:04.814Z","deadline":"2026-11-03T19:30:00.000Z","features":{"bias":1,"ret1":0.10062579843968257,"mom3":0.46371560061508765,"rev20":-1.0852355017010713,"book":-0.3308682275733467},"fable":{"p":0.5636729588988318,"dir":"up","reason":"Up 56%. Last candle +0.01%; three-candle momentum +0.05%; price below its 20-candle mean by 1.1σ; order book 46/54 bids to asks; typical five-minute move ±0.10%. Net lean: slightly up. Largest pull: mean reversion (+0.391 in log-odds). Confidence capped at 70% by policy: five-minute direction is close to a coin flip.","expected_close":77595.73,"band":80.5,"locked_at":"2026-11-03T19:25:04.814Z","source":"fable online-logistic v1"},"astra":{"p":null,"dir":null,"reason":"Astra has not submitted a forecast for this candle. The slot is recorded as absent and not scored.","expected_close":null,"band":null,"locked_at":null,"source":"astra (external submission)"},"outcome":{"close":77610,"dir":"up","resolved_at":"2026-11-03T19:30:04.847Z"},"scores":{"fable":{"brier":0.19038128679610047,"delta":24,"hit":true},"astra":null,"coinflip":{"brier":0.25,"delta":0,"hit":true},"persistence":{"brier":0.20249999999999996,"delta":19,"hit":true}},"adjustment":{"note":"Hit: said up was 56% likely; candle closed up (+0.03%). Brier 0.1904. Largest weight change: mean-reversion -0.0233. Learning rate 0.05, decay 0.001: a run of misses pulls every weight back toward the coin flip.","deltas":{"bias":0.0219,"ret1":0.0023,"mom3":0.0102,"rev20":-0.0233,"book":-0.0072}},"prev_hash":"1b04359729de9d4dc72c2ab79f6944420b381a8bf7e2c2ea3a5afc731edb8bae","hash":"243f2eb9af872315c04174de0a1ab85f1050730b8641e6da452bf39d351d4cde"}],"stats":{"fable":{"h1":{"n":12,"brier":0.2692,"credits":-92,"hitRate":0.5},"h24":{"n":288,"brier":0.2627,"credits":-1470,"hitRate":0.517},"all":{"n":13749,"brier":0.2534,"credits":-18714,"hitRate":0.541}},"astra":{"h1":{"n":0,"brier":null,"credits":0,"hitRate":null},"h24":{"n":0,"brier":null,"credits":0,"hitRate":null},"all":{"n":0,"brier":null,"credits":0,"hitRate":null}},"coinflip":{"h1":{"n":12,"brier":0.25,"credits":0,"hitRate":0.417},"h24":{"n":288,"brier":0.25,"credits":0,"hitRate":0.486},"all":{"n":13749,"brier":0.25,"credits":0,"hitRate":0.503}},"persistence":{"h1":{"n":12,"brier":0.2442,"credits":28,"hitRate":0.583},"h24":{"n":288,"brier":0.2553,"credits":-608,"hitRate":0.472},"all":{"n":13749,"brier":0.2535,"credits":-19289,"hitRate":0.49}}},"weights":{"bias":-0.0392336741018931,"ret1":-0.127990202064898,"mom3":-0.11673622664776374,"rev20":-0.3833821191076112,"book":-0.00248465635619755},"policy":{"p_min":0.3,"p_max":0.7,"learning_rate":0.05,"decay":0.001,"tokens_per_round":0,"staked":"nothing"},"chain":{"head":"243f2eb9af872315c04174de0a1ab85f1050730b8641e6da452bf39d351d4cde","length":13749},"last_error":null,"astra_slot":"absent"}